But for how long? One day, the forces that turned the palest, thinnest of green shoots after the financial crisis into the second longest American economic expansion on record will change direction, igniting a new recession—for which the world is woefully unprepared. When that might happen is hard to say. Studies of American business cycles suggest that the economy is as likely to flip from growth to contraction early in the life of a boom as later on. Indeed, America has no records of an expansion lasting longer than a decade, though many countries do: Australia, Canada and the Netherlands have all enjoyed sustained growth lasting more than 20 years in recent memory. Yet all good things come to an end.
但這種好日子能維持多久伐蒋？某天這股自經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)后產(chǎn)生镊逝，將最微弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇跡象轉(zhuǎn)變成為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)歷史上第二長的增長周期的力量，將會(huì)調(diào)轉(zhuǎn)方向兄裂，引發(fā)一場新的衰退，而對于這一切，整個(gè)世界尚未準(zhǔn)備好蹬蚁。這種情況何時(shí)會(huì)發(fā)生難以確定。對于美國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的研究表明郑兴，這種經(jīng)濟(jì)上的從增長到衰退的掉頭可能在剛剛開始繁榮的時(shí)候便發(fā)生犀斋。確實(shí)，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)歷史上沒有長于十年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長階段情连，但是許多其他國家卻存在這種現(xiàn)象：澳大利亞叽粹、加拿大以及荷蘭都曾在近現(xiàn)代有過超過 20 年的持續(xù)增長。然而好日子總歸有結(jié)束的時(shí)候却舀。
Though there is no settled view on what constitutes a global recession, worldwide slumps are usually marked out by a sharp slowdown in global growth and a decline in real gdp per person. Roughly speaking, there have been four global recessions since 1980: in the early 1980s, the early 1990s, in 2001, and in the crisis of 2007-08. Each was marked by a slowdown in gdp growth, a sharp decline in trade growth, and retrenchment in the financial sector. According to the Behavioural Finance and Financial Stability project at Harvard University, an average of four countries a year suffered a banking crisis between 1800 and 2016. From 1945 to 1975, when the global financial system was tightly controlled, most years were entirely free of banking crises. Since 1975, however, an average of 13 countries have found themselves in the throes of one each year. Since the 1970s, the deregulation of national banking systems and the lifting of constraints on the global flow of capital ushered in a new era of financial boom and bust. Re-regulation since 2009 has not fundamentally changed this picture. The current value of outstanding cross-border financial claims, at 35trn reached in 2008, but well above the 1998 level of $9trn.
盡管對于如何才能夠得上是全球性的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退尚未有定論虫几，但是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的蕭條通常意味著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的急劇下跌，以及個(gè)人實(shí)際 GDP 的下降挽拔。粗略地說辆脸，在 1980 年后，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)大約經(jīng)歷了四次衰退：在 1980 年代的早期螃诅，1990 年代的早期崭添，在 2001 年，以及 2007-08 的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)袭蝗。每次危機(jī)都存在著 GDP 增長的減緩瘸恼，貿(mào)易增長的急劇下跌，以及經(jīng)濟(jì)行業(yè)的緊縮冰垄。依據(jù)哈佛大學(xué) Behavioural Finance and Financial Stability 工程的研究成果，自 1800 年到 2016 年，平均每年都會(huì)有四個(gè)國家經(jīng)歷銀行業(yè)危機(jī)奶栖。從 1945 年到 1975 年，當(dāng)全球金融收到嚴(yán)格管制的時(shí)候门坷，大部分年份都沒有發(fā)生銀行業(yè)危機(jī)宣鄙。然而，自 1975 年后默蚌，平均每年都有 13 個(gè)國家忙于處理銀行業(yè)危機(jī)冻晤。自 1970 年代以來，對于國家銀行體系監(jiān)管的減少以及對于國際件資本流動(dòng)的限制的減弱绸吸，使得金融業(yè)迎來了一個(gè)繁榮和衰退并存的新時(shí)代鼻弧。自 2009 年以來的新的監(jiān)管政策并沒有改變這一大形勢。目前跨境金融的價(jià)值據(jù)稱有 3 萬億美元（持續(xù)增加中）锦茁，低于 2008 年曾達(dá)到的 3.5 萬億美元的高度攘轩，但也遠(yuǎn)高于 1998 年的 9000 億美元。
