Apps, Airplanes, and More: 5 Predictionsfor Mobile VR’s Near Future

未來VR的五大預測

2016 has already started off as an excitingyear for smartphone-based VR. Google Cardboard and Samsung Gear VR have beenaround for a while now and are starting to get large marketing pushes fromtheir creators. I still think we’re in the early stages of this technology andwanted to discuss where I think mobile VR is headed.

2016年作為令人興奮的基于智能手機的VR時代已然開啟购笆。谷歌紙板和三星Gear VR陸續(xù)上市，并開始進行大范圍的市場推廣唬涧。我仍然認為我們尚處在這項技術的早期階段薄嫡，來討論下我認為的移動VR引領的新風尚。

1. Mobile VR Will Be the Most Widely Used Form of VR

移動VR將成為VR最廣泛使用的形式

Mobile VR holds a lot of potential becauseof its easy-of-use, low-cost, and portability. I firmly believe it’s going tobe the dominant form of VR in terms of reach and engagement. It’s also likelyto be the first VR experience for most people and the first thing that comes tomind when people think of VR.

移動VR擁有很大的潛力魂爪，因為它容易使用量瓜，成本低活孩，和便攜性。我堅信在觸達和參與方面將成為VR的主要形式嫂丙。對大多數(shù)人來說可能是第一次VR體驗娘赴，也是當人們想起VR最先想到的事情术羔。

Since most users already carry apowerful-enough phone around with them, they will just require a low-costhardware that the phone plugs into to use the VR software functionality theirphone already provides. The Google Cardboard is effectively free (withlimitations) and the Gear VR is reasonably priced at $99, making both optionsan impulsive decision for consumers that already own a compatible phone ($500normally). This is significantly cheaper than the Oculus Rift ($599) and HTCVive ($799) and also does not have the added cost of a powerful PC ($1,000-$1,500).The Sony Playstation VR will likely be cheaper than the above options andrequires a cheaper Playstation 4 ($350). Even with the lower-cost, mobile VR isstill cheaper than any of the higher-end experiences.

由于大多數(shù)用戶已經(jīng)隨身攜帶一個功能強大的手機宣谈，他們只需要一個低成本的硬件，插入手機使用VR軟件的功能蕉朵。谷歌紙板實際上是免費的（有限制）和Gear VR價格合理僅售$99腥光，使得已經(jīng)擁有兼容手機（$ 500通常）的消費者很容易在二者之間做出沖動的決定。這比Oculus Rift（$599）和HTC Vive（$799）便宜多了糊秆，也無需額外購買強大的PC（$1,000- $1,500）武福。索尼PlayStation VR可能會比上述選項更便宜，需要一個更便宜的Playstation4（$350）痘番。即使成本較低捉片，移動VR仍然比其他任何高端的體驗更便宜。

The main delayer of adoption right now isthe availability of hardware supported (e.g. Gear VR, not Google Cardboard) VRheadsets for phones. The catalyst here will be a GearVR-like device foriPhones. Apple hasn’t entered this market yet but has already indicated thatthey are looking at the space.

目前采用的主要延遲器為硬件可支持的手機VR頭顯（例如Gear VR汞舱，而不是谷歌紙板）伍纫。這里的催化劑用于iPhone的類如gear VR的裝置。蘋果公司還沒有進入這個市場昂芜，但已經(jīng)表示莹规，他們正在考慮發(fā)展的空間。

2. The First Killer Use-case for Mobile VR Will Be on Planes and in Airports

移動VR將首先在機場和飛機上進行使用

Airline passengers already try to isolate themselves on flights and in the airport. Laptops, DVD players, and tablets arecommonly seen in these contexts. Mobile VR offers an improved experience forpassengers:

A (virtual) screen that’s much larger thana tablet or seat back display and not as bulky as a laptop or large tablet.Users can be virtually sitting in their living room or a movie theater watchingshows

Isolation from other passengers. VR’snormally anti-social isolation works in the user’s favor in this context.

Uses your phone, so can connect toin-flight wifi for flights with bring-your-own-device technology (such as mostUnited flights)

飛機上的乘客已經(jīng)試圖在航班和機場孤立自我泌神。筆記本電腦良漱，DVD播放器和平板隨處可見。移動VR將為乘客提供更佳的體驗：

一個（虛擬）屏幕欢际，比平板電腦或椅背顯示屏更大母市，又不像筆記本電腦或平板電腦那樣笨重。用戶幾乎可坐在自己的客廳或電影院觀看演出损趋。

與其他乘客隔離患久。在這方面VR通常因反社會隔離工作而受到用戶的青睞。

使用您的手機浑槽，這樣可以使自己的移動設備連接航班上的wifi（如美國大部分航班）蒋失。

3. Major Mobile App Developers Will Build aVR-mode into Their Existing Mobile Apps Rather than Deploy a New VR-only App

主流移動應用開發(fā)者將創(chuàng)建VR模式適配現(xiàn)有應用，而非部署全新僅用于VR的應用

Within a few years there will be multipletypes and brands of mobile VR headsets. Given this, rather than create brandnew apps for new stores, I predict most app developers will opt to insteadinclude a VR mode within their existing mobile apps that are triggered once thephone has been inserted into a HMD. An example would be Hulu or Netflixentering VR Theater mode once the phone has been inserted into a VR headsetlike the Gear VR. This has several advantages:

You can update your existing users to beVR-ready without getting them to download a new app

Your existing push notification channelsand permissions will persist

It’s a better user experience for the enduser because they only have a single app to open

You maintain your chart ranking and searchranking in the App Store listings

幾年之內(nèi)將會有多種類型和品牌的移動虛擬現(xiàn)實頭顯括荡。鑒于此高镐，而不是創(chuàng)造新的商店品牌新的應用程序，我預測大多數(shù)應用程序開發(fā)者會在現(xiàn)有移動應用內(nèi)加入VR模式畸冲，手機插入HMD時即可觸發(fā)嫉髓。一個例子是Hulu或Netflix的進入VR劇場模式观腊，一旦手機已插入VR頭顯，比如像gear VR算行。具有以下幾個優(yōu)點：

您可以更新現(xiàn)有用戶使用VR而非下載新的應用程序

您現(xiàn)有的推送通知渠道和權限將繼續(xù)有效

這是為終端用戶提供更好的用戶體驗梧油，因為他們只有單一的應用程序打開

維護您在App Store排名列表中的圖表排名和搜索排名

4. The Biggest Producers of Mobile VR GamesWon’t Be the Biggest Mobile Game Companies

最大的移動VR游戲廠商未必是最大的移動游戲公司

Similar to how the largest mobile companieswere not the largest social gaming companies, there’s enough of a DNA changefrom mobile to VR in terms of design and execution that new, VR-focusedcompanies will emerge and see greater success. Small teams with a focus onexperimentation and exploiting early platform advantages will win here over AAA/ higher-production content.

The largest mobile games (Words withFriends, Angry Birds, HayDay, Candy Crush, etc.) were all started bymobile-first companies that iterated and experimented before they had a hit. Ittook several years after the iPhone was released before platform-definingtitles were launched: Words with Friend/Angry Birds both launched 2 years afterthe iPhone and Candy Crush/HayDay launched 5 years after.

Since VR has unique design challenges,there will likely be an equivalent experimentation period before a big winnerin mobile VR gaming appears.

類似于最大的移動公司并不是最大的社交游戲公司，有足夠的來自移動轉變到VR的DNA州邢，在設計和執(zhí)行全新的儡陨，以VR為核心的企業(yè)將脫穎而出，見證更大的成功量淌。小團隊側重于實驗和早期開發(fā)平臺的優(yōu)勢骗村，將贏得AAA /高生產(chǎn)的內(nèi)容。

最大的手機游戲（Words with Friends呀枢，憤怒的小鳥胚股，卡通農(nóng)場，糖果粉碎傳奇等）都是由首批移動公司開始裙秋，然后迭代和嘗試琅拌，最終走紅的。它花了好幾年在iPhone發(fā)布后摘刑，才確定在平臺發(fā)布的名字：Words with Friend/憤怒的小鳥是在蘋果上市兩年后發(fā)布进宝，糖果粉碎傳奇/卡通農(nóng)場則是在5年后。

由于VR具有獨特的設計挑戰(zhàn)枷恕，在移動VR游戲大贏家出現(xiàn)之前党晋，有可能會有同樣的試驗期。

5. Positional and, Eventually, HandTracking Will Come to Mobile VR

移動VR將兼容定位追蹤活尊、頭部追蹤功能

Positional tracking is not much of aprediction because it is already confirmed to be in development by Oculus CTOJohn Carmack.

Positional tracking for mobile VR isimportant because it allows developers to create a whole new class ofexperiences based on head movement. It’s similar to how after the iPhone addedGPS support, a whole new set of apps based on mapping were made possible.

By that measure, hand tracking is even moreinteresting. When users have the ability to interact with a virtual world viatheir hands, an endless number of new applications will be made possible. Appslike Tilt Brush or DJ’ing in VR expand the possibility of VR. This tracking isalso how mobile VR, combined with a cellphone’s camera, can eventually dovetailinto mobile-based AR. Google’s Project Tango is attempting to do this. Handtracking is a much more intuitive way of interacting with VR and goes a longway to help create presence for the user.

Leap Motion and other gesture trackinghardware are fairly compact and could be integrated into a mobile VR headset toenable this tech. No company has announced this officially yet but all signspoint to it happening eventually.

定位追蹤算不上太大的預測隶校，因為已經(jīng)由Oculus公司CTO約翰·卡馬克證實了。

移動VR位置跟蹤很重要蛹锰，因為它允許開發(fā)者創(chuàng)建一種全新的基于頭部運動的體驗深胳。它類似于iPhone增加GPS的支持，通過一組全新的基于映射應用程序得以成為可能铜犬。

通過這一措施舞终，手勢追蹤將更加精彩。當用戶具備通過自己的雙手與虛擬世界互動的能力癣猾，全新的無窮多的應用將成為可能敛劝。像Tilt Brush或VR DJ'ing等應用拓展了VR的可能性。這種跟蹤也是移動VR與手機的攝像頭相結合纷宇，才能最終形成基于移動的AR夸盟。谷歌的Tango項目試圖做到這一點。手勢跟蹤與VR進行交互像捶，是更直觀的方式上陕，還要走一段很長路來創(chuàng)建用戶的存在感桩砰。

Leap Motion和其他手勢跟蹤硬件都相當緊湊，可以集成到移動VR頭顯來啟用該技術释簿。尚未有任何一家公司正式發(fā)布亚隅，但所有跡象都表明它最終發(fā)生。