【大企業(yè)讀書會(huì)】2019年2月11日/周一

? ? ? ? 外 媒 中 國 資 訊 深 度 精 選

? 中國仍是全球礦業(yè)并購主力軍

中國企業(yè)日益瞄準(zhǔn)電動(dòng)汽車電池和清潔能源技術(shù)所需的礦產(chǎn)拦英，相繼收購剛果民主共和國、塞爾維亞等國的銅、鈷和鋰資產(chǎn)瘩缆。

Chinese companies have been the biggest buyers of overseas mining assets over the past year, in a concerted push to secure the metals and minerals required for the energy transition away from fossil fuels.

在過去一年里，中國企業(yè)一直是海外礦業(yè)資產(chǎn)的最大買家佃蚜。它們步調(diào)一致地努力獲取能源轉(zhuǎn)型所需的金屬和礦物庸娱，這場轉(zhuǎn)型的目標(biāo)是逐步淘汰化石燃料。

With more than $7bn worth of deals in 2018, according to Dealogic, Chinese groups are now increasingly targeting minerals needed for electric car batteries and clean energy technologies. This has led them to buy stakes in copper, cobalt and lithium assets in countries as far afield as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Serbia and Chile.

Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示谐算，2018年此類交易的價(jià)值超過70億美元熟尉。目前中國企業(yè)正日益瞄準(zhǔn)電動(dòng)汽車電池和清潔能源技術(shù)所需的礦物資源。結(jié)果是洲脂，它們?nèi)牍闪诉h(yuǎn)在剛果民主共和國斤儿、塞爾維亞和智利等國的銅、鈷和鋰資產(chǎn)。

The buying spree is in contrast to previous overseas forays that largely focused on acquiring steelmaking iron ore assets, which led spending to hit $17bn at the height of the last commodity boom a decade earlier.

這波收購熱潮與之前的海外收購行動(dòng)形成了對(duì)比往果。之前疆液，中國企業(yè)的海外主要收購目標(biāo)是煉鋼用鐵礦石資產(chǎn)，這在10年前大宗商品熱潮時(shí)曾令收購金額達(dá)到170億美元的頂峰棚放。

Their largest acquisition last year was the $4.1bn purchase of a 24 per cent stake in Chilean lithium miner SQM by China’s Tianqi Lithium.

去年中國企業(yè)最大的一筆收購枚粘，是天齊鋰業(yè)(Tianqi lithium)以41億美元收購智利鋰礦公司SQM 24%的股份。

This deal and others contrast with the more cautious approach by western mining companies such as Rio Tinto, Anglo American and BHP Billiton, which have resisted any large acquisitions reminiscent of that previous commodity boom that eventually led to $109bn of write-offs.

這宗交易以及其它交易飘蚯，與力拓(Rio Tinto)馍迄、英美資源集團(tuán)(Anglo American)和必和必拓(BHP Billiton)等西方礦業(yè)公司更為謹(jǐn)慎的態(tài)度形成了對(duì)比。這些公司拒絕進(jìn)行任何讓人聯(lián)想到上一輪大宗商品熱潮的大型收購局骤，那一輪大宗商品熱潮最終導(dǎo)致1090億美元的資產(chǎn)減記攀圈。

It is a bifurcation that could have profound implications for who controls future supply of critical metals, which are expected to see surging demand over the next decade as sales of electric cars increase.

這種不同態(tài)度可能對(duì)未來誰會(huì)控制關(guān)鍵金屬的供應(yīng)產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響。未來10年峦甩，隨著電動(dòng)汽車銷量的增長赘来，這些金屬的需求預(yù)計(jì)將大幅上升。

“Who’s got their mitts on the fairest portion of the earth? It’s still Rio, Anglo American and BHP, but the current dynamic is making it harder and harder for the west to maintain that position in the face of an increasingly self-confident China,” said Paul Gait, analyst at Bernstein.

“地球上最主要的資源掌握在誰手中凯傲？目前仍是力拓犬辰、英美資源集團(tuán)和必和必拓，但面對(duì)一個(gè)日益自信的中國冰单，當(dāng)前形勢正讓西方越來越難以保持這種地位幌缝，”伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)的分析師保羅?蓋特(Paul Gait)說。

Fujian-based Zijin Mining, whose chairman Chen Jinghe made his name developing the company’s copper and gold mine in eastern Fujian province, has emerged as one of the country’s most acquisitive mining companies.

位于福建省的紫金礦業(yè)(Zijin Mining)已成為中國最具收購意愿的礦業(yè)公司之一诫欠。董事長陳景河因開發(fā)該公司位于福建東部的金銅礦而出了名涵卵。

Last year Zijin completed its $1.4bn acquisition of Canadian miner Nevsun Resources, which owns the Timok copper mine in Serbia and the Bisha copper and zinc mine in Eritrea.

去年，紫金礦業(yè)完成了以14億美元收購加拿大礦商N(yùn)evsun Resources的交易荒叼。Nevsun擁有塞爾維亞的Timok銅礦和厄立特里亞的Bisha銅鋅礦轿偎。

The Chinese miner’s offer in September was at a 57 per cent premium to Nevsun’s share price at the time, and was almost a third higher than a rival offer by Canada’s Lundin Mining. Zijin had also won over Serbian authorities by earlier agreeing to spend $1.26bn to buy a stake in a nearby smelter in return for a 63 per cent stake.

這家中國礦商去年9月的報(bào)價(jià)較Nevsun當(dāng)時(shí)的股價(jià)溢價(jià)57%，比加拿大Lundin Mining的報(bào)價(jià)高了近三分之一被廓。紫金礦業(yè)早些時(shí)候還同意斥資12.6億美元收購Timok銅礦附近一家冶煉廠63%的股份坏晦，贏得了塞爾維亞當(dāng)局的支持。

Zijin has surprised western bankers before with its ability to do deals. On the same day in May 2015 that it announced a partnership with Canada’s Barrick Gold, it also bought a stake in Canadian Ivanhoe Mines’s copper project in the Congo.

紫金礦業(yè)的交易能力以前就曾令西方銀行家意外過嫁乘。在2015年5月宣布與加拿大巴里克黃金公司(Barrick Gold)建立合作關(guān)系的同一天英遭，該公司還收購了加拿大艾芬豪礦業(yè)(Ivanhoe Mines)剛果銅礦項(xiàng)目的部分股權(quán)。

“Not many entrepreneurs have his expertise and vision,” said a person who has dealt with Mr Chen.

一位與陳景河打過交道的人士說亦渗，“有他這樣的專業(yè)知識(shí)和遠(yuǎn)見的企業(yè)家并不多挖诸。”

Also in September, China’s state-owned CITIC Metal paid C$723m, a 44 per cent premium, to become the largest shareholder in Ivanhoe Mines.

同樣在那個(gè)9月法精，中國國企中信金屬(CITIC Metal)以7.23億加元（溢價(jià)44%）的價(jià)格多律，成為艾芬豪礦業(yè)的最大股東痴突。

Ivanhoe is developing the Kamoa-Kakula copper deposit in the DRC, which Bernstein has said is the “single greatest discovery of copper in at least the last 30 years”. It also has exploration licences near the deposit, where it has also found copper.

艾芬豪礦業(yè)正在開發(fā)剛果民主共和國的Kamoa-Kakula銅礦床。伯恩斯坦公司曾表示狼荞，該礦床是“至少過去30年來最偉大的一次銅礦發(fā)現(xiàn)”辽装。艾芬豪礦業(yè)也持有該礦床附近地區(qū)的勘探許可證，在那里也發(fā)現(xiàn)了銅礦相味。

“In the long term, considering the basic demand for copper from urbanisation in emerging economies and the additional demand from emerging industries such as electric cars and clean energy, there is more certainty in the outlook for the copper industry compared to other metals,” said Sun Yufeng, president of Citic Metal. “There is likely to be a deficit of copper around 2024.”

“從長遠(yuǎn)來看拾积，考慮到新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體城市化對(duì)銅的基本需求，以及電動(dòng)汽車和清潔能源等新興產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)銅的額外需求丰涉，銅業(yè)有著比其他金屬更確定的前景拓巧，”中信金屬總經(jīng)理孫玉峰說，“在2024年前后一死，銅可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)短缺肛度。”

Chinese companies are likely to continue their acquisition spree this year, according to bankers, especially in riskier countries such as the DRC. The Congo holds some of the richest resources of copper and cobalt in the world.

銀行家們表示投慈，中國企業(yè)今年可能會(huì)繼續(xù)大舉收購承耿，尤其是在剛果民主共和國等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的國家。該國擁有一些世界上儲(chǔ)量最豐富的銅礦和鈷礦伪煤。

Last week China Molybdenum, a miner backed by Chinese billionaire Yu Yong, spent $1.4bn to strengthen its control over a giant copper and cobalt mine in the DRC, following its initial purchase of a majority stake from US miner Freeport-McMoran for $2.65bn in 2016.

不久前加袋，中國億萬富翁于泳為實(shí)際控制人的洛陽鉬業(yè)(China Molybdenum)斥資14億美元，加強(qiáng)了對(duì)剛果民主共和國一座巨型銅鈷礦的控制抱既。當(dāng)初职烧，洛陽鉬業(yè)在2016年以26.5億美元從美國礦商自由港邁克墨倫(Freeport-McMoRan)手中買下了該礦的多數(shù)股權(quán)。

“In this market it would be hard for a western mining house to be able to defend itself against buying something at the riskier end of the spectrum,” said John Tivey, a mining lawyer at White & Case in Melbourne.

“在這個(gè)市場上蝙砌，一家西方礦業(yè)公司如果去收購風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高的資產(chǎn)，將很難給出令人信服的解釋跋理，”墨爾本偉凱律師事務(wù)所(White & Case)的礦業(yè)律師約翰?蒂維(John Tivey)說择克。

“They would have a lot of trouble with their shareholder base. I think that contributes to why Chinese groups are able to be a little more strategic about their investments — they don’t have the overhand of activist shareholders.”

“他們在股東基礎(chǔ)那里會(huì)遇到很多麻煩。我認(rèn)為前普，這就是為什么中國企業(yè)能夠在投資方面更具戰(zhàn)略性——它們不會(huì)受到維權(quán)股東的干預(yù)肚邢。”

However, one sector where M&A activity looks set to increase for western miners is gold. On January 1, Barrick Gold completed its $6bn all stock merger with London-listed Randgold, while last week, US miner Newmont made a $10bn bid for rival Goldcorp.

然而拭卿，西方礦商似乎會(huì)增加并購活動(dòng)的一個(gè)行業(yè)是黃金行業(yè)骡湖。1月1日，巴里克黃金(Barrick Gold)完成了與倫敦上市公司蘭德黃金資源公司(Randgold Resources)規(guī)模60億美元的全股票合并峻厚。不久前，美國礦商紐蒙特礦業(yè)(Newmont Mining)以100億美元收購了競爭對(duì)手商加拿大黃金公司(Goldcorp)。

John Thornton, the chairman of Barrick , has also pledged to do more deals with Chinese partners such as Shandong Gold.

巴里克黃金董事長約翰?桑頓(John Thornton)也承諾航揉，將與山東黃金(Shandong Gold)等中國合作伙伴開展更多交易惰爬。

Chinese miners are likely to be more competitive in deals where they can ultimately control the mine, rather than joint ventures, according to Richard Horrocks-Taylor, global head of metals and mining at Standard Chartered.

渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)金屬與礦業(yè)全球主管理查德?霍羅克斯-泰勒(Richard Horrocks-Taylor)表示辖试，在最終能對(duì)礦產(chǎn)實(shí)現(xiàn)控股、而非合資的交易中劈狐，中國礦商有可能具有更大的競爭力罐孝。

Last year Chinese state-owned miners Minmetals and Chinalco lost out in bids for a 30 per cent stake in Teck Resources’s giant QB2 copper mine in Chile, which was bought by Japan’s Sumitomo for $1.2bn.

去年，中國國有礦商五礦集團(tuán)(Minmetals)和中鋁(Chinalco)競購泰克資源(Teck Resources)智利QB2巨型銅礦30%的股權(quán)失利肥缔，這些股權(quán)被日本住友(Sumitomo)以12億美元收入囊中莲兢。

“Our strong view is that the Chinese will continue to do deals. They will continue to be a key driver of M&A activity in the mining sector as the western diversified [miners] remain cautious,” said Mr Horrocks-Taylor.

“我們強(qiáng)烈認(rèn)為，中國企業(yè)將繼續(xù)進(jìn)行收購续膳。西方多元化（礦商）仍持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度改艇，中國企業(yè)將繼續(xù)充當(dāng)采礦業(yè)并購活動(dòng)的一支關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動(dòng)力量，”霍羅克斯-泰勒說姑宽。

Hydrogen power: China backs fuel cell technology

? ? 中國發(fā)力扶持氫燃料電池

在借助補(bǔ)貼創(chuàng)造全球最大電動(dòng)汽車市場遣耍、并在鋰離子電池產(chǎn)業(yè)占據(jù)領(lǐng)先地位后，中國希望在氫燃料電池產(chǎn)業(yè)復(fù)制這一成就炮车。

Stung by the impact of the financial crisis, the hilly city of Yunfu in China’s southern Guangdong province decided in 2009 it was time for a makeover. Known over hundreds of years for producing delicate stones for arts and crafts, the city had few modern industries apart from consumer appliances.

受到金融危機(jī)打擊后舵变，地處丘陵地帶的中國廣東省云浮市在2009年決定另辟蹊徑。幾百年來瘦穆，這座城市以加工大理石聞名纪隙，除消費(fèi)電器產(chǎn)品外幾乎沒有現(xiàn)代工業(yè)。

So officials decided to lop the top off the surrounding hills and build a 13.4 sq km industrial park focused on fuel cells — a rival technology to internal combustion engines and electric batteries.

當(dāng)?shù)毓賳T們于是決定推平四周山丘扛或，建造一座占地13.4平方公里绵咱、以燃料電池為核心的工業(yè)園區(qū)，這是一項(xiàng)與內(nèi)燃發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)與蓄電池競爭的技術(shù)熙兔。

Attracted by generous government subsidies, a whole suite of companies covering the supply chain have now set up in the park, which is producing hundreds of buses and small trucks using fuel cells that run on hydrogen gas. So successful has it been that local officials now plan to flatten two more hills to create a neighbouring vehicle manufacturing plant and a chemicals facility.

在當(dāng)?shù)卣犊a(bǔ)貼的吸引下悲伶，覆蓋整個(gè)供應(yīng)鏈的一整套企業(yè)已在該園區(qū)落戶，生產(chǎn)數(shù)以百計(jì)使用氫能的公共汽車和小型卡車住涉。該工業(yè)園的成功讓當(dāng)?shù)毓賳T決定再推平兩座山麸锉，在旁邊建一家汽車制造廠和一家化工廠。

“When we moved here it was all barren hills,” says Frank Ma, chairman of Guangdong Nation Synergy Hydrogen Power Technology, walking along a line of bright blue fuel cell buses. “Your first impression [of the area] is that this is not the kind of place to do this kind of manufacturing. [But] this is a special kind of industry in China.”

廣東國鴻氫能科技(Guangdong Nation Synergy Hydrogen Power Technology)董事長馬東生(Frank Ma)說：“我們?nèi)腭v時(shí)這里還是一片荒山舆声』ǔ粒”他在一排藍(lán)色的燃料電池公共汽車邊上走過時(shí)表示：“這兒給人的第一印象并不是從事這類制造的地方。但這個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)本身在中國就是特殊的媳握〖钇ǎ”

The Yunfu park is the epitome of China’s powerful industrial policy — which is designed to use generous subsidies to develop and dominate emerging industries critical to the “Made in China 2025” shift to high-end manufacturing.

云浮這座工業(yè)園體現(xiàn)了中國強(qiáng)大的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策，該政策旨在利用慷慨補(bǔ)貼來發(fā)展乃至主導(dǎo)一些新興產(chǎn)業(yè)蛾找，這些產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)《中國制造2025》(Made in China 2025)闡明的轉(zhuǎn)向高端制造業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略至關(guān)重要娩脾。

Beijing has spent an estimated $58.8bn subsidising its electric car industry over the past decade, according to the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, creating the world’s largest market for electric cars as well as a dominant position in batteries— surpassing Japan and South Korea. Subsidies have also helped propel Chinese solar makers into the ranks of the world’s largest producers, overtaking competitors in the US and Europe.

根據(jù)美國戰(zhàn)略與國際研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的數(shù)據(jù)，過去10年北京向國內(nèi)電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)提供約588億美元補(bǔ)貼打毛，創(chuàng)造了全球最大電動(dòng)汽車市場晦雨，并在電池領(lǐng)域取得主導(dǎo)地位架曹，超過日本和韓國。補(bǔ)貼還助推中國太陽能制造商躋身全球最大生產(chǎn)商之列闹瞧，超過美國和歐洲的競爭對(duì)手绑雄。

Now Beijing hopes to do the same for fuel cells — which along with electric vehicles could help decarbonise the entire transportation fleet and reduce China’s vast reliance on imported oil. While fuel cells are unlikely to compete with batteries for small passenger cars because of the latter’s continued reduction in costs, they could play a role in larger vehicles such as trucks and buses, as well as in ships and trains.

現(xiàn)在北京希望在燃料電池產(chǎn)業(yè)復(fù)制這一成就。燃料電池加上電動(dòng)汽車有助于實(shí)現(xiàn)運(yùn)輸工具去碳化奥邮，并減少中國對(duì)進(jìn)口石油的嚴(yán)重依賴万牺。盡管燃料電池不太可能與小型乘用車的電池競爭（因?yàn)楹笳咴诓粩嘟档统杀荆鼈兛赡茉谳^大型車輛（如卡車和公共汽車）以及船舶和火車中發(fā)揮作用洽腺。

“If you look at what China did in solar, in wind and in battery electric vehicles the subsidy tap was opened and it brought a lot of capital and companies to these new markets, which resulted in China being the leader in all three of these segments,” says Randy MacEwen, chief executive of Canada’s Ballard Power, one of the world’s largest fuel cell manufacturers. “We expect to see something similar with the fuel cell industry.”

加拿大巴拉德動(dòng)力(Ballard Power)是全球最大燃料電池制造商之一脚粟，該公司首席執(zhí)行官麥凱文(Randy MacEwen)表示：“看看中國在太陽能、風(fēng)能和電池電動(dòng)汽車等行業(yè)打開補(bǔ)貼水龍頭后發(fā)生了什么蘸朋，補(bǔ)貼為這些新市場帶來大量資本和企業(yè)核无，使中國成為所有這三個(gè)細(xì)分市場的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。我們預(yù)期燃料電池產(chǎn)業(yè)會(huì)出現(xiàn)類似局面藕坯⊥拍希”

China’s rush into fuel cells could be an expensive gamble, however. The vehicles need to be able to compete without subsidies just as batteries are becoming ever cheaper, quicker to charge and able to hold more energy for the same amount of weight. Tesla chief executive Elon Musk has dismissed fuel cells and hydrogen as “mind-bogglingly stupid”.

然而中國大舉進(jìn)軍燃料電池產(chǎn)業(yè)可能是一場昂貴的賭博。燃料電池車輛需要在即使沒有補(bǔ)貼的情況下也具備競爭力炼彪，而目前電池越來越便宜吐根，充電越來越快，而且在同等重量下能夠存儲(chǔ)更多電量辐马。特斯拉(Tesla)首席執(zhí)行官埃隆?馬斯克(Elon Musk)對(duì)燃料電池和氫能不屑一顧拷橘，稱這類技術(shù)“蠢得令人難以置信∠惨”

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? The drive for volume

? ? ? ? 獲得數(shù)量優(yōu)勢的動(dòng)力

The power of China’s subsidy machine can be seen in the southern city of Shenzhen, which grew from a fishing village along the Sham Chun river that separates the mainland from Hong Kong into one of its most vibrant cities and home to some of its largest technology companies. Almost the entire taxi fleet uses electric cars made by hometown producer BYD, the world’s largest electric car manufacturer that is backed by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. The buses are also all electric.

南方城市深圳展示了中國“補(bǔ)貼機(jī)器”的力量冗疮。這座城市從內(nèi)地與香港之間的界河——深圳河邊的一個(gè)小漁村，發(fā)展成了中國最具活力的城市之一檩帐，中國幾家最大科技公司的總部設(shè)在該市术幔。深圳的出租車幾乎全部是當(dāng)?shù)貜S家比亞迪(BYD)生產(chǎn)的電動(dòng)汽車，該公司是全球最大電動(dòng)汽車制造商轿塔，投資者包括沃倫?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的伯克希爾哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)特愿。深圳的公共汽車也都是電動(dòng)的仲墨。

Almost half of all battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles sold this year will be sold in China. Thanks to government rules that restricted domestic car companies from buying batteries from foreign producers, Chinese battery maker CATL has become the world’s largest producer, overtaking rivals LG Chem and Panasonic. Based in Ningde, in southeastern Fujian province, CATL this year signed deals to sell batteries to BMW and Daimler and announced plans to build a factory in Germany.

今年全球銷售的所有電池和插電式混合動(dòng)力汽車中勾缭，近一半將是在中國。得益于限制國內(nèi)汽車公司向外國生產(chǎn)商購買電池的政府規(guī)定目养，中國電池廠商寧德時(shí)代(CATL)已成為全球最大的生產(chǎn)商俩由，超越競爭對(duì)手LG化學(xué)(LG Chem)和松下(Panasonic)。寧德時(shí)代總部位于福建省寧德市癌蚁，去年簽約向?qū)汃R(BMW)和戴姆勒(Daimler)銷售電池幻梯，并宣布計(jì)劃在德國建廠兜畸。

Just as it was in batteries five years ago, China is a laggard in fuel cells, behind Japan and South Korea as well as the US and Europe. Toyota has consistently bet on the technology and launched its first fuel cell car, the Mirai, in late 2014, It sells for about ￡65,000. Hyundai’s Nexo fuel cell model goes on sale this year for a similar price.

就像五年前的電池產(chǎn)業(yè)一樣，中國目前在燃料電池產(chǎn)業(yè)處于落后位置碘梢，不如日本咬摇、韓國、美國和歐洲煞躬。豐田(Toyota)一直在豪賭這項(xiàng)技術(shù)肛鹏，于2014年末推出首款燃料電池車Mirai，售價(jià)約為6.5萬英鎊《髋妫現(xiàn)代(Hyundai)的燃料電池車Nexo將于今年上市在扰，價(jià)格相仿。

To overcome that laggard status, Chinese companies last year began a concerted effort to acquire and integrate foreign technology. In May BYD announced it was working with the US Hybrid Corporation on a hydrogen-powered fuel cell bus to run in Honolulu airport. And in November Weichai Power, China’s largest state-owned diesel engine maker, spent $184m on a 20 per cent stake in Ballard. This month Weichai also paid ￡48m for a 20 per cent stake in UK-based fuel cell maker Ceres Power.

為了改變這種落后狀態(tài)雷客，中國企業(yè)去年發(fā)起收購和整合外國技術(shù)的協(xié)同努力芒珠。去年5月，比亞迪宣布與US Hybrid Corporation合作搅裙，為檀香山機(jī)場開發(fā)氫燃料電池巴士皱卓。去年11月，中國最大的國有柴油發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)制造商濰柴動(dòng)力(Weichai Power)以1.84億美元收購了巴拉德20%的股份呈宇。最近濰柴還以4800萬英鎊收購了英國燃料電池制造商Ceres Power 20%的股份好爬。

Phil Caldwell, Ceres chief executive, says the size of the Chinese market was too big for his company to ignore. The company plans to transfer its technology to Weichai and jointly invest in a manufacturing facility in eastern Shandong province. The fuel cells will initially run on buses using compressed natural gas before the hydrogen infrastructure is built, he says.

Ceres首席執(zhí)行官菲爾?考德威爾(Phil Caldwell)表示，中國市場規(guī)模太過龐大甥啄，以至于他的公司不能忽視這個(gè)市場存炮。該公司計(jì)劃把技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓給濰柴，并在山東省聯(lián)合投資建造一座制造廠蜈漓。他稱穆桂，在氫基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建成之前，燃料電池將首先用于公共汽車融虽，使用壓縮天然氣享完。

“While we talk a lot about these technologies in Europe the Chinese government is actually pushing ahead,” Mr Caldwell says. “They can create the market and create the demand and drive these technologies down the cost curve.”

“我們在歐洲沒完沒了討論這些技術(shù)的同時(shí)，中國政府在動(dòng)真格有额，”考德威爾稱般又，“他們能夠創(chuàng)造市場，創(chuàng)造需求巍佑，壓低這些技術(shù)的成本曲線茴迁。”

Ballard says its joint venture with Weichai will aim to make at least 2,000 fuel cells a year for commercial vehicles by 2021 — the largest planned deployment to date. The company says the total cost for customers to buy and operate a fuel cell bus will be the same as for a battery-driven vehicle by 2020.

巴拉德表示萤衰，其與濰柴成立的合資企業(yè)到2021年每年將為商用車生產(chǎn)至少2000個(gè)燃料電池——這是迄今最大規(guī)模的部署計(jì)劃堕义。該公司稱，到2020年脆栋，客戶購買和運(yùn)行燃料電池公共汽車的總成本將與電池驅(qū)動(dòng)型公共汽車的成本相同倦卖。

“If you look at the costs we’re [currently] at a premium [compared] to battery electric vehicles,” says Mr MacEwen. “What hasn’t happened yet in the fuel cell market is the power of volume. China is a market that has proven that with subsidies they will drive production capacity and volume and see significant cost reductions.”

“如果你看一下成本洒擦，我們（目前）的成本要高于電池電動(dòng)車，”麥凱文表示怕膛，“燃料電池市場尚未形成數(shù)量上的力量熟嫩。中國市場已經(jīng)證明，借助補(bǔ)貼褐捻，他們將提高產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)量邦危，并大幅降低成本∩崛牛”

? ? ? ? ? ? Making 2m vehicles

? ? 制造200萬輛燃料電池汽車

Benny Oeyen, a former executive for General Motors in Shanghai, stands next to a fuel cell bus made by Feichi Bus in Yunfu and watches the water come out of the exhaust pipe.

通用汽車(General Motors)上海前高管本尼?博埃延(Benny Oeyen)站在由云浮市飛馳客車(Feichi Bus)生產(chǎn)的一輛燃料電池公共汽車旁邊倦蚪，看著水從排氣管流出。

“I think this is the answer to the energy challenge of mankind,” says Mr Oeyen, now head of market development for platinum group metals at Anglo American. “It’s no longer pie-in-the-sky PowerPoint presentations.”

“我認(rèn)為這是解決人類面臨的能源挑戰(zhàn)的答案边苹，”博埃延表示陵且，“這不再是可望不可及的PPT演示「鍪”他現(xiàn)在是英美資源集團(tuán)(Anglo American)鉑族金屬市場開發(fā)主管慕购。

All told, China will have spent about Rmb85bn ($12.4bn) on supporting fuel cell powered vehicles last year, in a mix of national and local subsidies. The technology received high-level support in October when Wan Gang, a former minister of science and technology who is considered the father of China’s push into electric cars, said “the next era belongs to fuel cell technology”.

總體而言，中國去年以國家補(bǔ)貼和地方補(bǔ)貼相結(jié)合的形式茬底，支出約850億元人民幣（合124億美元）支持燃料電池動(dòng)力汽車沪悲。去年10月，這項(xiàng)技術(shù)得到了高層支持阱表，被視為中國電動(dòng)汽車大發(fā)展推手的原科技部部長萬鋼當(dāng)時(shí)稱殿如，“下一階段將是燃料電池大顯身手的時(shí)代”。

While Chinese subsidies for battery electric vehicles are expected to be phased out by 2020 they will continue for fuel cells to at least 2025, according to some in the industry.

據(jù)一些業(yè)內(nèi)人士稱最爬，盡管中國對(duì)電池電動(dòng)汽車的補(bǔ)貼預(yù)計(jì)到2020年將逐步取消涉馁，但對(duì)燃料電池的補(bǔ)貼將至少持續(xù)到2025年。

The money has helped China reach its annual target of 5,000 fuel cell vehicles two years early — around the same number of vehicles as California. Industry participants say China could hit a target of 2m fuel cell vehicles by 2030, about 5 per cent of the total vehicle fleet.

這些資金已幫助中國提前兩年前實(shí)現(xiàn)了年產(chǎn)5000輛燃料電池汽車的目標(biāo)——與美國加州的燃料電池汽車數(shù)量大致相同爱致。業(yè)內(nèi)人士表示烤送，到2030年，中國可能達(dá)到200萬輛燃料電池汽車的目標(biāo)糠悯，約占汽車總保有量的5%帮坚。

Under the current scheme, manufacturers of fuel cell vehicles are guaranteed to make a profit. They can receive as much as $30,000 from the central government per vehicle — provided it is driven at least 20,000km and meets minimum power requirements. They can also receive a local government subsidy that varies by region.

根據(jù)現(xiàn)行安排，燃料電池汽車制造商穩(wěn)賺不賠互艾。只要一輛車至少行駛2萬公里并滿足最低功率要求试和，其制造商就能從中央政府獲得3萬美元。他們還可能獲得地方政府補(bǔ)貼忘朝，不同地區(qū)的補(bǔ)貼金額不同灰署。

“With the current subsidies the producer of the fuel cell bus is making money from day one,” says Mark Sun, head of marketing in Asia for Anglo American Platinum, which is looking to boost demand for platinum through its use in fuel cells.

英美資源鉑族金屬亞洲營銷負(fù)責(zé)人孫國江(Mark Sun)表示：“現(xiàn)行補(bǔ)貼意味著判帮，燃料電池公共汽車的制造商從第一天就開始賺錢局嘁「然”該公司正尋求通過鉑在燃料電池中的用途來提振其需求。

The subsidies have prompted a host of Chinese companies to start producing fuel cell vehicles, including the country’s largest car manufacturer, SAIC Motor, and its largest electric bus maker, Yutong Bus. Yu Yi, head of fuel cell research at SAIC, says that when the company reaches a target of 10,000 fuel cell vehicles the “costs can be reduced substantially”.

這些補(bǔ)貼促使大批中國企業(yè)開始生產(chǎn)燃料電池汽車悦昵，其中包括中國最大的汽車制造商上汽集團(tuán)(SAIC Motor)以及中國最大的電動(dòng)巴士制造商宇通客車(Yutong Bus)肴茄。上汽燃料電池研究主管余毅（音）表示，當(dāng)該公司達(dá)到1萬輛燃料電池汽車的產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)時(shí)但指，“成本就會(huì)大幅降低”寡痰。

State-owned companies have also started to build hydrogen refuelling stations, with China Energy, the country’s largest power company, building one of the country’s biggest in the city of Rugao in eastern Jiangsu province.

國有企業(yè)也開始建造加氫站。中國最大的電力公司——國家能源集團(tuán)(China Energy)在江蘇省的如皋市建造了中國最大的加氫站之一棋凳。

The price of hydrogen is also heavily subsidised, often making it cheaper than diesel.

中國還大力補(bǔ)貼氫燃料的價(jià)格拦坠，使之往往比柴油更便宜。

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Metal matters

? ? ? ? ? ? 金屬很重要

Fuel cells have a number of advantages for China. They can help reduce the country’s reliance on imported energy as well as raw materials. While lithium-ion batteries require a host of metals such as cobalt, lithium and nickel, most fuel cells only require platinum, of which there is an abundant supply, as a catalyst, at a level of around 0.5 to 0.6 grammes per kilowatt.

對(duì)中國而言剩岳，燃料電池有很多優(yōu)勢贞滨。它們可以幫助中國減少對(duì)進(jìn)口能源和原材料的依賴。鋰離子電池需要鈷拍棕、鋰晓铆、鎳等多種金屬，而大多數(shù)燃料電池只需要供應(yīng)充足的鉑作為催化劑绰播，每千瓦的鉑用量約為0.5至0.6克骄噪。

“In terms of resource adequacy, it’s a lot easier to see how you do it for fuel cells than for lithium-ion batteries,” says Paul Gait, an analyst at Bernstein. “If you go to the northern rim of the Bushveld [in South Africa] there’s enough platinum to electrify the entire auto fleet.”

伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析師保羅?蓋特(Paul Gait)表示：“就資源充足程度而言，燃料電池比鋰離子電池更易于搞定蠢箩。如果你去（南非）布什維爾德的北部邊緣链蕊，那里的鉑儲(chǔ)量足以讓所有汽車電氣化∶冢”

China may also have a solution for being self-sufficient in hydrogen. While most hydrogen is created from fossil fuels such as methane and used in the refining and chemical industries, another method is to produce it using electricity to split water, a process known as electrolysis. This process is not an efficient use of energy, but it makes sense when the cost of electricity is free.

中國也有辦法實(shí)現(xiàn)氫能自給自足示弓。盡管大部分氫來自甲烷等化石燃料，被用于煉油和化工行業(yè)呵萨，但另一種方法是利用電解水制氫奏属。這一過程的能源效率不高，但如果電不花錢就有意義了潮峦。

Beijing’s huge investment in renewable energy over the past decade has caused a lot of electricity to be wasted, since intermittent wind and solar power cannot be properly integrated into the grid. China can use some of that wasted energy to generate hydrogen cheaply, says Nick Ni, general manager of Nantong Angstrom Renewable.

過去10年囱皿，中國政府在可再生能源方面的巨額投資造成了大量電能被浪費(fèi)，因?yàn)殚g歇性的風(fēng)能和太陽能電力無法正常送入電網(wǎng)忱嘹。南通安思卓新能源有限公司(Nantong Angstrom Renewable)首席運(yùn)營官倪海寧(Nick Ni)表示嘱腥，中國可以利用這些被浪費(fèi)的能源，以較低成本生產(chǎn)氫拘悦。

It is estimated that around 150 gigawatts of renewable energy generating capacity is wasted in China every year because it cannot be integrated into the grid. That could be used to power 18m passenger cars, says Ju Wang, deputy secretary-general of the International Hydrogen Fuel Cell Association. “China does not need to worry about hydrogen supply.”

據(jù)估計(jì)齿兔，由于無法送入電網(wǎng)，中國每年約有150吉瓦的可再生能源發(fā)電裝機(jī)容量被浪費(fèi)。國際氫燃料電池協(xié)會(huì)(International Hydrogen Fuel Cell Association)副秘書長王菊表示分苇，這些電能可以用來為1800萬輛乘用車提供動(dòng)力添诉。“中國不需要擔(dān)心氫供應(yīng)医寿±父埃”

Despite this optimism, fuel cells will face fierce competition from batteries, given the amount of money that is going into that sector. The global battery market is expected to increase 10-fold by mid-century to $500bn, according to Bernstein Research, with costs expected to fall to parity with petrol engines by 2023. That is without any government subsidy. Carmakers from Tesla to Daimler have also launched electric trucks that will compete with fuel cells.

盡管有這種樂觀情緒，但考慮到投入電動(dòng)車電池行業(yè)的資金數(shù)量靖秩，燃料電池將面臨動(dòng)力電池的激烈競爭须眷。伯恩斯坦研究公司預(yù)計(jì)，到本世紀(jì)中葉沟突，全球電池市場規(guī)模將擴(kuò)大10倍花颗，達(dá)到5000億美元；到2023年惠拭，其成本預(yù)計(jì)將降至與汽油發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)相當(dāng)?shù)乃缴又伞＿@已刨除了政府補(bǔ)貼。從特斯拉到戴姆勒求橄，各大汽車制造商也都推出了將與燃料電池競爭的電動(dòng)卡車今野。

“It gets more difficult for fuel cells — it’s not a matter of catch-up, it’s catching up with something that’s moving ahead of you all the time,” says Peter Harrop, chairman of consultancy IDTechEx. “China is backing all horses just in case.”

咨詢公司IDTechEx董事長彼得?哈羅普(Peter Harrop)表示：“燃料電池的日子將更加難過——這不是追趕的問題，而是追趕不斷跑贏你的技術(shù)的問題罐农。中國正在支持所有技術(shù)条霜，就為了以防萬一『鳎”

Sceptics also warn that China’s push into fuel cells could end up repeating its experience with electric cars, where government spending has created huge amounts of production without making sure there is real demand. There are more than 100 domestic electric vehicle makers in the Chinese market.

懷疑論者還警告宰睡，中國在燃料電池領(lǐng)域的努力可能最終重蹈電動(dòng)汽車的覆轍，即政府補(bǔ)貼催生了巨大產(chǎn)能气筋，卻不去確保存在真正的需求拆内。目前中國市場上有100多家本土電動(dòng)汽車制造商。

“Can we identify electric car and fuel cell producers that will survive the inevitable consolidation? At some point there will be a war of attrition, and I’m not clear how they are going to go about that,” says Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at CSIS.

戰(zhàn)略與國際研究中心高級(jí)顧問斯科特?肯尼迪(Scott Kennedy)表示：“我們能確定哪些電動(dòng)汽車和燃料電池制造商將在不可避免的行業(yè)整合中生存下來嗎宠默？到了某個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)麸恍，會(huì)有一場消耗戰(zhàn)，我不清楚他們將如何對(duì)付搀矫∧ɑΓ”

Mr Ma in Yunfu is hesitant when asked if he can survive without subsidies. “Subsidy dependence is hard to get rid of,” he says. Adding that if the whole experiment fails “the best fuel-cell vehicles are still scrap metal”.

當(dāng)被問及沒有補(bǔ)貼能否生存時(shí)，國鴻氫能科技的馬東生有些猶豫瓤球∪谂罚“很難擺脫對(duì)補(bǔ)貼的依賴，”他表示卦羡。他補(bǔ)充說噪馏，如果整個(gè)試驗(yàn)失敗麦到，“最好的燃料電池汽車也是廢鐵”。

But he insists that once his company can produce more than 100,000 fuel cells stacks a year, up from the current 2,000, its buses should be competitive against battery-powered rivals.

但他堅(jiān)稱欠肾，一旦他的公司能從目前每年2000個(gè)燃料電池堆的產(chǎn)量提高到每年10萬個(gè)瓶颠，其巴士就應(yīng)該能與電池驅(qū)動(dòng)的巴士競爭。

“I said to the Guangdong government, if you can purchase 100,000 vehicles I can give you a price 30 per cent lower than electric vehicles,” Mr Ma says. “Our target from the first day was to survive beyond government subsidy and support. Our goal is to keep costs down and completely commercialise.

馬東生表示：“我對(duì)廣東省政府說董济，如果你們能采購10萬輛，我可以給你們一個(gè)比電動(dòng)汽車低30%的價(jià)格要门。從第一天起虏肾，我們的目標(biāo)就是要在不依靠政府補(bǔ)貼和支持的情況下生存下去。我們的目標(biāo)是降低成本欢搜，實(shí)現(xiàn)完全商業(yè)化封豪。”

“The government has given a promise to the world that we have to reduce pollution,” he adds.

“中國政府已經(jīng)向世界承諾炒瘟，我們必須減少污染吹埠。”他補(bǔ)充道疮装。?

? 延伸閱讀—2019黃金投資邏輯

穿金戴銀一直是中國富貴的象征缘琅，特別是一到過年，黃金的需求都會(huì)上升廓推，再加上買漲不買跌的投資心理刷袍，黃金成為今年春節(jié)的熱銷商品。足金999的價(jià)格從之前的每克345元上漲至353元樊展，很多商場黃金柜臺(tái)前呻纹，基本都是人山人海。大家的消費(fèi)主要圍繞著生肖豬掛件专缠，或者手鏈為主雷酪。

中國大媽搶黃金，這不是什么新聞了涝婉，早在2011年就出現(xiàn)過哥力，當(dāng)時(shí)黃金的價(jià)格接近了2000美元一盎司，那會(huì)中國大媽拳打投機(jī)商人墩弯，腳踢華爾街大鱷省骂，搶黃金都搶到了香港，但就在大媽們瘋狂搶黃金的3年后最住，黃金價(jià)格卻一路下跌钞澳，跌幅達(dá)到一半，2015年底黃金價(jià)格跌倒了接近1000美元的位置涨缚，之后也是長期在底部徘徊轧粟，直到現(xiàn)在紐約金也才只有1318美元策治，2011年搶黃金的大媽們，仍然被在套在高位兰吟。而且解套遙遙無期通惫。

其實(shí)說大媽們投資黃金確實(shí)有點(diǎn)牽強(qiáng)，有點(diǎn)投資知識(shí)的都知道混蔼，第一黃金本來就不是投資品履腋，只是避險(xiǎn)交易品，第二黃金首飾更沒有任何的投資價(jià)值惭嚣，根本就是個(gè)徹頭徹尾的消費(fèi)品遵湖。所以，無論大媽們怎么想的晚吞，反正這事還真跟投資沒有半毛錢關(guān)系延旧，頂多算是一個(gè)美好的愿望。

那么有人問了槽地，黃金價(jià)格的走勢到底看什么迁沫？這個(gè)就太復(fù)雜了？黃金是整個(gè)世界貨幣體系捌蚊，乃至世界經(jīng)濟(jì)體系的對(duì)手盤集畅，不光是受到美元影響，還受到需求以及突發(fā)事件的影響缅糟。

首先牡整，從需求來看，確實(shí)有個(gè)好消息溺拱，2018年的黃金總需求達(dá)到了4345噸逃贝，比2017年增加了4%，主要購買黃金的力量迫摔，也根本不是中國大媽沐扳，而是各國的央行，他們購買黃金的總量增長了74%句占，之所以這么做沪摄，并不一定就是各國央行看好黃金，主要是因?yàn)楸阋耍?018年的前三季度纱烘，黃金價(jià)格一直在下跌杨拐，10月份之后才開始反彈，而現(xiàn)在其實(shí)價(jià)格也只恢復(fù)到2018年4月的水平擂啥。

其次哄陶，美元在2018年走勢，也是上半年漲勢比較猛哺壶，9月之后基本就在96點(diǎn)附近停滯不前屋吨，美元不漲了蜒谤，黃金的做空動(dòng)力就消失了，所以各國央行一增持至扰，黃金價(jià)格也就漲起來了鳍徽。

第三，美國的貨幣政策恐有變化敢课，昨天我們已經(jīng)說過了阶祭，未來美國加息勢頭，極有可能會(huì)放緩直秆，而美國經(jīng)濟(jì)也可能減速濒募，這都對(duì)黃金構(gòu)成利好。美元弱下來切厘，經(jīng)濟(jì)慢下來萨咳，避險(xiǎn)資金就會(huì)去找黃金了懊缺。

總之疫稿，現(xiàn)在黃金價(jià)格的上漲在緩慢進(jìn)行中，總體來看還是缺少催化劑鹃两，也就是說爆發(fā)性的事件遗座，每一次黃金上漲其實(shí)都是巨大的擔(dān)憂，引發(fā)的后果俊扳，比如最典型的就是2007年的次貸危機(jī)途蒋，當(dāng)時(shí)大家覺得美國完了，所以黃金價(jià)格才會(huì)開啟大牛市馋记。甚至2016年的那波反彈号坡，也是擔(dān)心英國脫歐之后，歐盟從此解體梯醒，所以黃金一度漲了40%宽堆，而世界和平，繁榮發(fā)展之后茸习，大家就不會(huì)再喜歡黃金了畜隶。他的流動(dòng)性比較低，而且沒有任何的孳息能力号胚，用巴菲特的話說籽慢，大黃金自己不會(huì)下小黃金，所以他根本不能算是投資猫胁。因?yàn)辄S金根本不產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流箱亿。只是一個(gè)配置工具，和避險(xiǎn)工具弃秆，當(dāng)你發(fā)現(xiàn)沒有什么可投資的時(shí)候极景，所有資產(chǎn)都已經(jīng)高估了察净，或者你發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱了，這時(shí)候才應(yīng)該超配黃金盼樟，進(jìn)行避險(xiǎn)氢卡，因?yàn)榘凑战?jīng)濟(jì)周期理論，繁榮過后必然會(huì)帶來衰退和蕭條晨缴，朱格拉就說過蕭條的唯一原因就是繁榮译秦。而在蕭條之中，黃金價(jià)格才有可能上漲击碗。他可以有效的保護(hù)你的資產(chǎn)筑悴，平衡你的配置。比如按照我們經(jīng)典的配置組合稍途，債5股4商品1的配置比例阁吝，即便在2007年那樣的大熊市當(dāng)中，你的資產(chǎn)損失也會(huì)在10%以內(nèi)械拍，這其中1成的黃金和原油的配置突勇，起到了關(guān)鍵的作用。如果沒有這個(gè)配置坷虑，你的資產(chǎn)損失可能會(huì)擴(kuò)大到20%甲馋。這對(duì)于心里的沖擊，將大很多迄损？

那么黃金該怎么買呢定躏？最好通過黃金期貨，或者黃金ETF連接基金進(jìn)行配置芹敌，再次是銀行的紙黃金痊远，最次是實(shí)物投資金條，至于黃金首飾氏捞，那根本就是瞎胡鬧碧聪，屬于消費(fèi)范疇，根本沒什么回收途徑幌衣。另外矾削，特別提醒，黃金股票算是股票資產(chǎn)而不是黃金資產(chǎn)豁护，黃金股票的上漲是要靠業(yè)績預(yù)期推動(dòng)哼凯，雖然跟金價(jià)有很強(qiáng)的關(guān)系，但跟股市的關(guān)系也不小楚里。也經(jīng)常會(huì)出現(xiàn)金價(jià)大漲断部，但股票下跌的情況。

黃金一把買入或者定投都是可以的班缎，現(xiàn)在這種情況蝴光，可以一把買入她渴。但仍然不要超過你總配置的10%，還是那個(gè)原因蔑祟，黃金在90%的時(shí)間都是沒機(jī)會(huì)的趁耗，只有在10%的時(shí)間才會(huì)表現(xiàn)，所以你持有黃金的比例過高疆虚，就會(huì)喪失掉效率苛败。老齊在知識(shí)星球里經(jīng)常跟各位小伙伴們說，買黃金首先要端正心態(tài)径簿，你的目的只是避險(xiǎn)罢屈，而不要想賺錢，我們的投資組合中篇亭，只有股票是進(jìn)攻手段缠捌，屬于前鋒，債券和黃金都是防御手段译蒂，債券是后衛(wèi)曼月，而黃金是守門員，只有在萬不得已的情況下蹂随，黃金才會(huì)出來保命十嘿。但在很多人的球隊(duì)里因惭，沒有后衛(wèi)也沒有守門員岳锁，即便你的前鋒能力再強(qiáng)，進(jìn)了對(duì)方10個(gè)蹦魔，后面丟掉11個(gè)激率，你也還是會(huì)輸?shù)舯荣悺?/p>