1.1 概率的歷史

The use of probability to measure uncertainty and variability dates back hundreds
of years. Probability has found application in areas as diverse as medicine, gambling, weather forecasting, and the law.
數(shù)百年以前鹰溜,人們已經(jīng)使用概率來測量不確定性和可變性谒主。概率的應用范圍很廣偶翅,包括醫(yī)學、賭博、天氣預報和法律丁屎。

The concepts of chance and uncertainty are as old as civilization itself. People have
always had to cope with uncertainty about the weather, their food supply, and other
aspects of their environment, and have striven to reduce this uncertainty and its
effects. Even the idea of gambling has a long history. By about the year 3500 b.c.,
games of chance played with bone objects that could be considered precursors of
dice were apparently highly developed in Egypt and elsewhere. Cubical dice with
markings virtually identical to those on modern dice have been found in Egyptian
tombs dating from 2000 b.c. We know that gambling with dice has been popular ever
since that time and played an important part in the early development of probability
theory.

不確定性和文明同樣歷史悠久店溢。人們努力減少天氣墙基、食品供應和環(huán)境其他方面的不確定性和不良后果。賭博的歷史也很長添谊。大約在公元前3500年财喳,利用骨骼物體(骰子的前身)的賭博游戲在埃及和其他地方廣為傳播。經(jīng)過考古研究斩狱,在公元前2000年的墳墓中找到了立方體的骰子耳高。從那時起,骰子的賭博游戲就廣受歡迎所踊,并且在概率論的早期發(fā)展中起到了舉足輕重的作用泌枪。

It is generally believed that the mathematical theory of probability was started by
the French mathematicians Blaise Pascal (1623–1662) and Pierre Fermat (1601–1665)
when they succeeded in deriving exact probabilities for certain gambling problems
involving dice. Some of the problems that they solved had been outstanding for about
300 years. However, numerical probabilities of various dice combinations had been
calculated previously by Girolamo Cardano (1501–1576) and Galileo Galilei (1564–

通常認為,概率的數(shù)學理論是由帕斯卡和費馬開啟的秕岛,他們解決了骰子賭博中精確的概率問題碌燕。然而,有一些骰子的組合問題是有Cardano 和伽利略解決的继薛。

The theory of probability has been developed steadily since the seventeenth
century and has been widely applied in diverse fields of study. Today, probability
theory is an important tool in most areas of engineering, science, and management.
Many research workers are actively engaged in the discovery and establishment of
new applications of probability in fields such as medicine, meteorology, photography
from satellites, marketing, earthquake prediction, human behavior, the design of
computer systems, finance, genetics, and law. In many legal proceedings involving
antitrust violations or employment discrimination, both sides will present probability
and statistical calculations to help support their cases.

自17世紀以來修壕,概率論就在穩(wěn)步發(fā)展,并且應用到各個領域上遏考。時至今日慈鸠,概率論在大工程、科學和管理領域都是非常重要的工具诈皿。許多研究人員將概率論應用在醫(yī)學林束、氣象學,衛(wèi)星攝影稽亏、市場營銷壶冒、地震預測、人類行為截歉、計算機系統(tǒng)設計胖腾、金融,遺傳學和法律等領域瘪松。在許多涉及反壟斷違法或就業(yè)歧視的法律訴訟中咸作,原告與被告雙方通過運用概率論和統(tǒng)計學的知識,從而支撐各自的觀點宵睦。

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