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Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets? In the 1970s, computers were common enough, but only in big business, government departments, and large organizations. These were the so-called mainframe machines. Mainframe computers were very large indeed, often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software. Though these large machines still exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.

In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA. It can properly be described as the first 'home computer' and it pointed the way to the future. This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an Apple. In the early 1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer. This ran on an 'operating system' called DOS, produced by a then small company named Microsoft. The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied. From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.

Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today. Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to 'think' for themselves and would 'rule the world', which people liked to believe in those days. Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes, when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work. All these computer uses have become commonplace. Of course, Leon Bagrit could not possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers linked to telephone networks. Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to. Computers have become smaller and smaller, more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper. This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable. If he, or someone like him, were alive today, he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next fifty years.

notoriously

adv. （尤指因壞事）眾所周知地

diagnose

v. 診斷

眾所周知犁罩，預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)是非常困難的勺美。舉個(gè)例子吧缎脾，在20世紀(jì)70年代中葉又有誰(shuí)能想得到在20世紀(jì)末的時(shí)候，家庭用的計(jì)算機(jī)會(huì)像電視機(jī)一樣普遍？在70年代昂儒，計(jì)算機(jī)已經(jīng)相當(dāng)普及了着倾，但只用在大公司材诽，政府部門(mén)和大的組織之中脸侥，它們被稱(chēng)為主機(jī)建邓。計(jì)算機(jī)主機(jī)確實(shí)很大，常常占據(jù)了裝有空調(diào)的多間房間睁枕，雇用專(zhuān)職的技師官边，而且得用專(zhuān)門(mén)編寫(xiě)的軟件才能運(yùn)行。雖然這種大計(jì)算機(jī)仍然存在外遇，但它們的許多功能已被體積小但功能齊全的個(gè)人電腦——即我們常說(shuō)的PC機(jī)——所代替了注簿。

1975年，美國(guó)推出了一臺(tái)被稱(chēng)為“牛郎星”的原始機(jī)型跳仿。嚴(yán)格地說(shuō)起來(lái)诡渴，它可以被稱(chēng)為第一臺(tái)“家用電腦”，而且它也指了今后的方向塔嬉。70年代末玩徊，在牛郎星之后又出現(xiàn)了一種被稱(chēng)為“蘋(píng)果”的機(jī)型。80年代初谨究，計(jì)算機(jī)行業(yè)的王牌公司美國(guó)國(guó)際商用機(jī)器公司（IBM）生產(chǎn)出了世界上第一臺(tái)個(gè)人電腦。這種電腦采用了一種被稱(chēng)為磁盤(pán)操作系統(tǒng)（DOS）的工作程序泣棋，而這種程序是由當(dāng)時(shí)規(guī)模不大的微軟公司生產(chǎn)的胶哲。IBM的個(gè)人電腦被大規(guī)模地模仿。從那些簡(jiǎn)陋的初級(jí)階段潭辈，我們看到了現(xiàn)在都已普及的鸯屿、使用簡(jiǎn)便的家用電腦和多媒體的微機(jī)的發(fā)展。

想一想這些發(fā)展的時(shí)間多么短把敢，就更覺(jué)得英國(guó)人萊昂.巴格瑞特有著非凡的能力寄摆。他在60年代就能預(yù)言我們今天知道的計(jì)算機(jī)的一些用途。巴格瑞特根本不接受計(jì)算機(jī)可以學(xué)會(huì)自己去“思考”和計(jì)算可以“統(tǒng)治世界”這種想法修赞，而這種想法是當(dāng)時(shí)的人們都愿意相信的婶恼。巴格瑞特預(yù)示有一天計(jì)算機(jī)可以小到拿在手上，計(jì)算機(jī)可以使辦公室人員和會(huì)計(jì)免除那些枯燥柏副、重復(fù)的勞動(dòng)勾邦。計(jì)算機(jī)的所有這些功能現(xiàn)在都變得很平常。當(dāng)然了割择，萊昂.巴格瑞特根本沒(méi)有可能預(yù)測(cè)到國(guó)際交互網(wǎng)——就是把計(jì)算機(jī)連結(jié)到電話(huà)線(xiàn)路上眷篇，以便和世界上任何一個(gè)地方的人立即進(jìn)行聯(lián)系的一個(gè)世界范圍的通訊系統(tǒng)——的發(fā)展。他也無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)到我們可以利用國(guó)際交互網(wǎng)獲取有關(guān)任何已知專(zhuān)題的信息荔泳，以便在家里的屏幕上閱讀蕉饼，如果愿意的話(huà)甚至可以將其打印出來(lái)虐杯。計(jì)算機(jī)已經(jīng)變得體積越來(lái)越小，功能越來(lái)越多昧港，價(jià)格越來(lái)越低厦幅，這就是萊昂.巴格瑞特的預(yù)測(cè)非凡的地方。如果他或是像他的什么人今天還活著的話(huà)慨飘，他大概可以告訴我們下一個(gè)50年后會(huì)發(fā)生什么事情确憨。

科技文比較容易。瓤的。休弃。