Buttonwood

梧桐樹

The best, the worst and the ugly

最好的飞涂、最壞的和丑的

The art of picking mutual funds

挑選共同基金的藝術(shù)

Jan 12th 2013 | from the print edition

AT THE end of 2011 small investors who had bought mutual funds that focused on index-linked?giltswere feeling pretty smug. It was the best-performing British sector of that year. But?woe betide themif they then hung on to the funds all the way through 2012. The sector was last year’s worst performer.

2011年年末嫌褪，購買與指數(shù)掛鉤的金邊公債的共同基金的小額投資者洋洋自得类少，這類基金是2011年英國表現(xiàn)最好的基金種類，但是如果投資者持有此類基金到2012年底的話渔扎，就是大難臨頭了：它們是去年的最差表現(xiàn)投資品硫狞。

The difficulties facing investors when selecting individual mutual-fund managers are well known. Past returns may be a result of luck, not skill, and a smart manager may be hired away by a rival firm. But perhaps past data can still be of some use for asset-allocation purposes, if only as a?contrarian indicator?

投資者在挑選個(gè)人共同基金經(jīng)理問題上容易犯難是眾所周知的。過去的投資回報(bào)或許純屬運(yùn)氣晃痴，而非技術(shù)残吩。聰明的基金經(jīng)理可能會(huì)被對(duì)手公司雇走。但也許以往的數(shù)據(jù)仍可為資產(chǎn)配置提供些幫助倘核，至少作為逆向投資參考指標(biāo)?

To test the principle Ed Moisson of Lipper, an information provider, analysed the records of British mutual funds over the past 30 years. At?The Economist’s request, he compared the records of the best-performing, median and worst-performing British sectors over one-, three- and five-year periods (see chart).

信息咨詢公司理柏（Lipper）的Ed Moisson為了驗(yàn)證上述原理泣侮，分析了過去三十年里英國共同基金的表現(xiàn)。應(yīng)《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》之請(qǐng)紧唱，他分別比較了一年期活尊、三年期、五年期內(nèi)英國表現(xiàn)最好漏益、中等及最差的基金種類（見圖表）蛹锰。

The analysis shows two forces at work. The first is momentum, the tendency for shares that have performed well to continue to do so. Momentum is a long-established phenomenon at the level of individual stocks and is a puzzle for those who believe that markets are efficient. How can information that is widely available, like past price performance, be a useful guide to future price movements? Theory suggests that the momentum effect should be quickly?arbitragedaway.

分析結(jié)果顯示有兩股力量作用其中。第一是慣性绰疤，即曾經(jīng)表現(xiàn)不錯(cuò)的股票有保持良好表現(xiàn)的趨勢(shì)铜犬。慣性在個(gè)人參股上是老生常談的現(xiàn)象，但對(duì)相信市場(chǎng)效用的人來說是個(gè)謎轻庆。那些唾手可得的信息－比如以往的價(jià)格表現(xiàn)－怎么能夠有效指導(dǎo)未來的價(jià)格變動(dòng)呢癣猾？理論認(rèn)為慣性效應(yīng)該很快被套利抵消。

The persistence of momentum has been explained by the relationship between investors and the fund managers who look after their money. Investors choose fund managers on the basis of past performance. When those fund managers get new money from clients, they invest in their favourite stocks. Because those managers have been successful, their favourite stocks are likely to be those that have already performed well.

投資者和管理其金錢的基金經(jīng)理之間的關(guān)系也解釋了慣性的持續(xù)性余爆。投資者根據(jù)基金經(jīng)理的過往業(yè)績(jī)選擇基金經(jīng)理纷宇。當(dāng)基金經(jīng)理從投資客戶那里拿到錢后，會(huì)投資自己最中意的股票蛾方。由于這些基金經(jīng)理之前業(yè)績(jī)不錯(cuò)像捶，他們最中意的股票也可能是之前就表現(xiàn)不錯(cuò)的。

The chart suggests momentum also exists at the sectoral level. Buying a fund in the best-performing sector of the previous year earns a higher average return over the next year than either the worst or the median performer. Extend that period forwards by another four years, and the best sector in the prior year outperforms the worst by close to 30 percentage points.

以上圖表顯示慣性還存在于行業(yè)層面转捕。買進(jìn)上一年度表現(xiàn)最好的行業(yè)基金所獲平均回報(bào)比買進(jìn)表現(xiàn)中等或最差的多作岖。如果將一年期延長至五年期，就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)前一年表現(xiàn)最好的基金要比最差的那個(gè)好將近30%個(gè)點(diǎn)五芝。

The second force is?reversion to the mean. Assets can become overvalued: think of Japanese shares in the late 1980s or?dotcom stocksin the late 1990s. As values return to normal, the assets underperform.

第二股力量叫做均值回歸痘儡。資產(chǎn)價(jià)值可能被高估，1980年代末的日本股票或者九十年代末的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)股票就是如此枢步。當(dāng)價(jià)值回歸正常值時(shí)沉删，資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)就會(huì)落后于大市渐尿。

The reversion-to-the-mean effect shows up most over longer periods. Investors selecting a sector on the basis of its prior five-year performance would have earned much higher returns over the?followingfive years by selecting the worst-performing sector than the best. The gap is more than 30 percentage points. In the long term it pays to be?contrarian.

均值回歸效應(yīng)通常出現(xiàn)在較長時(shí)間段內(nèi)。根據(jù)前五年表現(xiàn)來選擇的投資者矾瑰，選最差基金在接下來五年的回報(bào)要比選最好的高出很多砖茸，這中間差距有三十幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。長遠(yuǎn)來看殴穴，這就是逆向投資凉夯。

It may seem surprising that the reversion-to-the-mean effect is not stronger over shorter periods. But mutual-fund sectors are not equal: some asset classes are likely to have a higher average return than others. Equities are more volatile than bonds or cash and have accordingly paid a?premium returnto investors over time. In the tables showing the one-year past performance, there are more equity sectors (22) in the best category than in the worst (19); by contrast, there are more bond and cash sectors (9) in the worst list than in the best (6). That gives funds in the top sectors?a natural upward bias.

均值回歸效應(yīng)在較短時(shí)間內(nèi)表現(xiàn)不明顯這一點(diǎn)或許有些出人意料。但是不同行業(yè)的共同基金不可比：一些資產(chǎn)種類的平均回報(bào)可能高于其它種類采幌。股票類基金的波動(dòng)性就高于債券或者貨幣類基金劲够，而且會(huì)隨時(shí)間相應(yīng)給投資者帶來保費(fèi)回報(bào)。圖表中一年期基金表現(xiàn)說明：表現(xiàn)最好的股票類基金（22個(gè)）比最差的（19個(gè)）多休傍；相反征绎，表現(xiàn)最差的債券和貨幣類基金（9個(gè)）比最好的（6個(gè)）多。這就給了表現(xiàn)較好的基金種類自然向上的趨勢(shì)磨取。

Any momentum or contrarian strategy is likely to focus on equities, and in specialist sectors where?the swings are wildest. Technology and telecoms funds were the best performers over five years on four occasions in the 1990s, and the worst performers four times in the first decade of the 21st century. Funds focusing on smaller firms have been the best annual performers on nine separate occasions and the worst on eight others.

所有的慣性或者逆向投資策略似乎都是針對(duì)股票和波動(dòng)最強(qiáng)烈的專業(yè)行業(yè)人柿。在1990年代，科技和電子通信基金在五年內(nèi)有四次表現(xiàn)最好忙厌，但在21世紀(jì)頭十年里又有四次表現(xiàn)最差凫岖。小企業(yè)基金有九次屬于年度最佳表現(xiàn)，有八次是最差慰毅。

So what are the momentum and contrarian bets for 2013? The best British sector last year was UK smaller companies. Investors betting that the trend will continue will need strong nerves: the?FTSE SmallCapindex trades on a?price-earnings ratioof 37and offers a?dividend yieldof just 2.7%, almost a point below the yield on?blue chipsin the FTSE 100. And the contrarian bet? The worst-performing sector over the past five years was property, a popular investment a decade ago. Perhaps the attractions of an asset that offers a decent income and a hedge against inflation will?come back into fashion.

那么2013年的慣性和逆向投資賭注會(huì)是什么呢隘截？去年扎阶，英國表現(xiàn)最好的是小公司基金汹胃。投資者打賭這種趨勢(shì)會(huì)持續(xù)是需要很大勇氣的：目前富時(shí)小盤股指數(shù)以37倍的市盈率進(jìn)行交易，股息收益率僅為2.7%东臀，幾乎比富時(shí)100的藍(lán)籌股低一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)着饥。至于逆向投資賭注呢？過去五年表現(xiàn)最差的行業(yè)是房地產(chǎn)惰赋，十年前的投資大熱門宰掉。或許能夠提供可觀收益和對(duì)沖通脹的資產(chǎn)會(huì)再度流行赁濒。

from the print edition | Finance and economics

譯注：（以下金融術(shù)語解釋選自《英漢雙解路透金融詞典》）

1.?mutual fund?共同基金

共同基金是集合公眾的資金,由專業(yè)的資產(chǎn)管理公司受托負(fù)責(zé)投資的一種方式轨奄。投資人共同承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),共同分享投資利潤【苎祝基金經(jīng)理根據(jù)基金既定的目標(biāo)以及規(guī)范,將投資人的資金分散投資在各種資產(chǎn)上挪拟。共同基金為投資人帶來分散投資以及專業(yè)資產(chǎn)管理的益處,同時(shí)也是流動(dòng)性很高的資產(chǎn),變現(xiàn)方便,但投資人必須向基金公司支付資產(chǎn)管理費(fèi),很多基金亦收取認(rèn)購費(fèi)以及贖回費(fèi),這會(huì)降低投資者的回報(bào)。共同基金一般追求參照市場(chǎng)指標(biāo)(benchmark)的相對(duì)回報(bào),即只要不跑輸大盤已算及格,所以一旦市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入大空頭,投資者往往虧損慘重,但仍需支付資產(chǎn)管理費(fèi)击你。另外,隨著共同基金成為主導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)的主要力量,基金表現(xiàn)要超越大盤日益困難,很多基金的表現(xiàn)還不如大盤玉组。共同基金是開放式基金,封閉式基金不能稱為共同基金.?在英國,共同基金亦稱為unit trust.

2.Contrarian反向操作投資人

指那些看法與市場(chǎng)多數(shù)意見相反谎柄，操作方向與當(dāng)前趨勢(shì)相逆的投資人。 例如惯雳，在大部分市場(chǎng)人士仍在積極拋售股票時(shí)朝巫，反向操作者會(huì)擇機(jī)買進(jìn)，因其相信賣壓可能已接近完全釋盡石景，或者市場(chǎng)已進(jìn)入超賣狀況劈猿。

Someone who moves or acts in the opposite direction to the general trend. A contrarian investor buys stock when the rest of the market is selling.

3.?FTSE（Financial Times and Stock Exchange）富時(shí)指數(shù)公司

A company that specializes in index calculation. Although not part of a stock exchange, co-owners include the London Stock Exchange and the?Financial Times.

The FTSE is similar to Standard & Poor's in the United States. They are best known for the FTSE 100, an index of blue-chip stocks on the London Stock Exchange.

4. Equity

指股東在公司中所占的權(quán)益，多用于指股票潮孽。英文equity market是指股票市場(chǎng)糙臼，即股票發(fā)行與交易的市場(chǎng)。

The shareholders' stake in a company. Equity markets are the markets in which shares or stocks are issued and traded.

5.?price-earnings ratio?（P/E或PER）股票的市盈率／本益比／價(jià)格收益比率

指每股市價(jià)除以每股盈利（Earnings Per Share恩商，EPS）变逃，通常作為股票是便宜抑或昂貴的指標(biāo)（通貨膨脹會(huì)使每股收益虛增，從而扭曲市盈率的比較價(jià)值）怠堪。市盈率把企業(yè)的股價(jià)與其制造財(cái)富的能力聯(lián)系起來揽乱。

每股盈利的計(jì)算方法，一般是以該企業(yè)在過去一年的凈利潤除以總發(fā)行已售出股數(shù)粟矿。市盈率越低凰棉，代表投資者能夠以相對(duì)較低價(jià)格購入股票。假設(shè)某股票的市價(jià)為24元陌粹，而過去一年的每股盈利為3元撒犀，則市盈率為24/3=8。該股票被視為有8倍的市盈率掏秩，即在假設(shè)該企業(yè)以后每年凈利潤和去年相同的基礎(chǔ)上或舞，如果不考慮通貨膨脹因素，回本期為8年蒙幻，折合平均年回報(bào)率為12.5%映凳，投資者每付出8元可分享1元的企業(yè)盈利。但上市公司通常只會(huì)把部分盈利用來派發(fā)股息邮破，其余用來作進(jìn)一步發(fā)展诈豌，所以市盈率的倒數(shù)不等于股息率。

6. Dividend Yield股息收益率

反映股票股息收益水平的指標(biāo)抒和，以按年率計(jì)算的股息除以股票市價(jià)得出矫渔。高收益率可能意味著高水平的股息，但也可能只是因?yàn)楣蓛r(jià)已顯著地下跌摧莽，致使在市場(chǎng)不看好公司的情況下庙洼，股息收益率看來也相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)。低收益率可能意味著股價(jià)因市場(chǎng)預(yù)期公司快速成長而上升，也可能只是因?yàn)楣具x擇保留現(xiàn)金供再投資之用送膳，因此沒有派發(fā)多少股息员魏。

"The ratio of annualized dividends to the price of a share. Dividend yields are widely used to measure the income return of a share. High yields may mean high dividends, or they may mean that the price of the share has fallen, making the ratio look impressive despite a poor market rating of the company. Low yields may mean that the company's share price is high in anticipation of rapid growth, or that the company is not distributing much of its earnings in dividends, preferring to keep cash for reinvestment in the business.?

英文原文報(bào)道：

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2013/01/12/the-best-the-worst-and-the-ugly

修改前譯文：

http://www.ecocn.org/thread-177398-1-1.html

參考譯文：

http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=177045&fromuid=31325