這是巴菲特2008年10月16日在紐約時報(The New York Times)發(fā)表的一篇文章桶癣。那時候焚鲜，金融海嘯肆虐全球，股市劇烈波動赋续。10月16日之前，先有3月16日貝爾斯登倒閉另患，接著是9月15日雷曼兄弟破產(chǎn)纽乱，股市跌幅驚人，股民損失慘重昆箕，市場可謂是“冷冷清清鸦列，凄凄慘慘戚戚”，而就在這1天鹏倘，股神巴菲特發(fā)文章向全世界張揚地宣布他自己會大舉買入美股薯嗤，有些人跟隨巴菲特買入，即使將信將疑纤泵；有些人仍然滿是悲傷情緒骆姐，不敢貿(mào)貿(mào)然的跟進(jìn)。時光飛逝捏题，轉(zhuǎn)眼已過4年玻褪，2012年9月，美國股市已失復(fù)08年暴跌的“失地”涉馅，道指更是近5年新高归园，說明什么？至少說明了巴菲特那天的舉動是正確的稚矿，完美地詮釋“在別人貪婪時恐懼庸诱，在別人恐懼時貪婪”的理念捻浦。逆向投資桥爽，知易行難，我們可以適宜地學(xué)習(xí)巴菲特的老練與精明钠四。
當(dāng)然，價值投資在美國股市十分適用缀去，然而侣灶，中國股市呢？投資方法不分國度褥影，但要根據(jù)自己的理解進(jìn)化地應(yīng)用理念。
附錄：“我正在買入美國股票 Buy American. I Am.”
（中文翻譯）
無論美國還是世界其他地方凡怎，金融市場都是一片混亂。更糟糕的是赊抖，金融系統(tǒng)的問題已滲透到整體經(jīng)濟(jì)中统倒，并且呈現(xiàn)出井噴式發(fā)展。短期內(nèi)氛雪，美國失業(yè)率將繼續(xù)上升，商業(yè)活動停滯不前坛缕，而媒體的頭條也令人心驚膽顫。
因此……我一直在購買美國股票。我指的是自己的私人賬戶骗卜，之前該賬戶除了美國政府債券外沒有任何資產(chǎn)(這不包括我所持伯克希爾-哈撒維公司的資產(chǎn)左胞，因為這部分資產(chǎn)將全部投入慈善事業(yè))寇仓。如果股價價格繼續(xù)保持吸引力烤宙，我的非伯克希爾凈資產(chǎn)不久后將100%是美國證券。
為什么服猪？
我奉行一條簡單的信條：別人貪婪時我恐懼，別人恐懼時我貪婪罢猪。當(dāng)前的形式是——恐懼正在蔓延，甚至嚇住了經(jīng)驗豐富的投資者粘捎。當(dāng)然拉队，對于競爭力較弱的企業(yè)，投資人保持謹(jǐn)慎無可非議蜗字。但對于競爭力強(qiáng)的企業(yè)娩缰，沒有必要擔(dān)心他們的長期前景漆羔。這些企業(yè)的利潤也會時好時壞，但大多數(shù)都會在未來5演痒、10或20年內(nèi)創(chuàng)下新的盈利記錄趋惨。
澄清一點：我無法預(yù)計股市的短期波動，對于股票在1個月或1年內(nèi)的漲跌我不敢妄言器虾。但有一種可能兆沙，即在市場恢復(fù)信心或經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇前，股市會上漲葛圃，而且可能是大漲。因此库正，如果你想等到知更鳥報春，那春天就快結(jié)束了龙誊。
回顧一下歷史：在經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條時期喷楣，道瓊斯指數(shù)在1932年7月8日跌至41點的歷史新低鹤树，到1933年3月弗蘭克林·羅斯福(ranklin Roosevelt)總統(tǒng)上任前护昧，經(jīng)濟(jì)依然在惡化，但到那時捣炬，股市卻漲了30%绽榛。
第二次世界大戰(zhàn)初期，美軍在歐洲和太平洋遭遇不利灭美。1942年4月，美國股市跌至谷底铁坎，當(dāng)時距離盟軍扭轉(zhuǎn)戰(zhàn)局還很遠(yuǎn)犁苏。同樣，20世紀(jì)80年代初围详，盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)下滑，通貨膨脹加劇买羞，但卻是購買股票的最佳時機(jī)雹食。簡而言之，壞消息是投資者的最好朋友群叶，它能讓你以較低代價下注美國的未來漠嵌。
長期而言盖呼，股市整體是趨于利好的化撕。20世紀(jì)，美國經(jīng)歷了2次世界大戰(zhàn)植阴、代價高昂的軍事沖突圾浅、大蕭條憾朴、十余次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和金融危機(jī)、石油危機(jī)灸拍、流行疾病和總統(tǒng)因丑聞而下臺等事件砾省，但道指卻從66點漲到了11497點。
也許有人會認(rèn)為编兄，在一個持續(xù)發(fā)展的世紀(jì)里，投資者幾乎不可能虧錢揣苏。但確實有些投資者虧了件舵，因為他們總是在感覺良好時買入，在市場充斥著恐慌時賣出蛾派。
今天个少，擁有現(xiàn)金或現(xiàn)金等價物的人可能感覺良好，但他們可能過于樂觀了夜焦，因為他們選擇了一項可怕的長期資產(chǎn)，沒有任何回報且肯定會貶值巷波。其實卸伞，美國政府的救市政策很可能導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹，并加速現(xiàn)金貶值荤傲。
未來10年，證券的投資回報率肯定要高于現(xiàn)金终佛，也許會高出很多。那些手持現(xiàn)金的投資者還在等待好消息绍豁，但他們忘了冰球明星韋恩·格雷茨基(Wayne Gretzky)的忠告：“我總是滑向冰球運動的方向牙捉，而不是等冰球到位再追【楣玻”
我不喜歡對股市進(jìn)行預(yù)測，我再次強(qiáng)調(diào)晶衷，我對股市的短期行情一無所知阴孟。我看到一家開在空蕩蕩銀行大樓里的餐館打出的廣告：“從前你的錢在這里，今天你的嘴在這里永丝。”但今天哥牍，我的錢和嘴巴都在股市里喝检。
（英文原文）
Buy American. I Am.
By WARREN E. BUFFETT
Published: October 16, 2008
THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.
So … I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
Why?
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”
I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.
