Climate change and the Nile Flood and famine

氣候變化與尼羅河洪水和饑荒?

本文由 繽紛英語翻譯組--經(jīng)濟學人小組

朱紅翻譯/楊楊審核?

The countries in the Nile basin will?suffer if?they?do not learn to co-operate如果尼羅河流域的國家不學會合作梅垄，它們將遭受苦難??

TO THE untrained eye, the satellite photos?of north-west Ethiopia on July 10th?may have seemed benign. They showed a?relatively small pool of water next to an?enormous building site on the Blue Nile,?the main tributary of the Nile river. But the?project under construction is the Grand?Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is?more than halfway complete. And the water?is?why it is so controversial.?

在一般人看來队丝，衛(wèi)星于7月10日拍下的埃塞俄比亞西北部照片呈現(xiàn)出一片祥和景象。這些照片顯示在尼羅河的主要支流——青尼羅河上的一個巨大建筑物旁邊臭墨，有一片相對較小的水域膘盖。但是在建的這個項目是埃塞俄比亞復興大壩侠畔，該工程已完工大半软棺。這片水域便是這座大壩備受爭議的原因。?

Since Ethiopia announced its plan to?build the dam, it has inspired threats of?sabotage from Egypt, which sits downstream?and relies on the Nile for electricity,?farming and drinking water. Egypt claims?that it is entitled to a certain proportion of?the Nile’s?water based on colonial-era treaties. Ethiopia dismisses those agreements.?The pool of?water in the photos suggested?that it?was beginning?to fill the?reservoir?behind?the dam, reducing the river’s flow.?

自從埃塞俄比亞宣布其建造這座大壩的計劃以來，埃及對埃塞俄比亞發(fā)出了進行破壞活動的威脅稀火，因為埃及坐落于河流下游憾股，其電力、農(nóng)業(yè)和飲用水都來源自尼羅河服球。埃及宣稱根據(jù)殖民時期協(xié)議往枣，自己有權使用一部分的尼羅河水粉渠，但是埃塞俄比亞對那些協(xié)議不予理會霸株。照片中的水域表明埃塞俄比亞正開始向位于大壩后面的水庫注水去件，河水流量隨之減少尤溜。??

That turns out not to have been the?case. The pool was deemed by Egypt to be?a result of construction and seasonal Nile?flooding. But the alarms it?raised?are indicative?of?how sensitive negotiations between?Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have become.?Talks over such things as how?fast to?fill the reservoir and how to operate the?dam have stumbled.And a potentially huge?complication?looms over?any discussion?of the Nile’s future: climate change.?By 2050 around a billion people will?live in the countries through which the?Nile and its tributaries?flow. That alone will?put enormous stress on the water supply.?But according to a study by Mohamed?Siam and Elfatih Eltahir of MIT, potential?changes to the river’s flow, resulting from?climate change, may add to the strain.?Messrs Siam and Eltahir conclude that on?current?trends the annual flow could increase,?on average, by up to 15%. That may?seem like a good thing, but it could also?grow more variable, by 50%. In other?words, there would be more (and worse)?floods and droughts.?

但是之前的情況并非如此丈攒。埃及認為這片水域是工程建設和尼羅河的季節(jié)性洪水造成的授霸。然而這片水域引起了不安碘耳，這表明埃及藏畅、埃塞俄比亞和蘇丹之間的協(xié)商已成為一個敏感問題敷硅。就向水庫注水的速度绞蹦、管理大壩的方式等問題進行的談判進行得并不順利。而且一個潛在的大難題困擾著所有關于尼羅河未來的討論溅呢，這個難題就是氣候變化。截止到2050年绩蜻，大約會有十億人口居住在尼羅河及其支流流域內(nèi)办绝，光這一點就足以給供水造成極大的壓力。但是麻省理工學院的穆罕默德·暹羅和Elfatih Eltahir進行的一項研究表明姚淆，氣候變化導致的潛在河水流量變化或許會加劇供水緊張問題孕蝉。暹羅和Eltahir先生總結道，按照當前的趨勢腌逢，每年水流量的平均增量可能會高達15%降淮。這看上去似乎很好，但是現(xiàn)實中的變化可能會更大：平均增量可能會達到50%搏讶。換句話說佳鳖，洪水和旱災發(fā)生的次數(shù)會變多，情況也會更加嚴重窍蓝。?

be indicative of

【釋義】表示腋颠，表明

【例句】Their failure to act is indicative of their lack of interest.他們未采取行動繁成，這表示他們沒有興趣吓笙。

【派生詞】

indicate v. 表明，顯示

?loom over

【釋義】籠罩，困擾

【例句】Meanwhile, the debt incurred during the bubble continues to loom over an economy that has yet to find a new growth strategy.與此同時幌墓，泡沫時期欠下的債務繼續(xù)籠罩這個目前尚未找到新的經(jīng)濟增長戰(zhàn)略的國家弹渔。

The threat of closure looms over the workforce.工廠可能關閉焦辅，令工人們焦慮不安压状。???

There is, of course, uncertainty in the?projections,?not least?because differing global?climate models give different numbers.?But the idea that the flow?of the Nile is likely?to become more variable?is lent?credibility,?the authors argue, by the fact that?trends over decades seem to agree with?them, and by consideration of the effects?of El Ni?o. These colossal climatic oscillations, driven by changes in the temperature?of the Pacific, are correlated with the?Nile’s flow, and climate-change studies?suggesting more extreme El Ni?o?in years?to come thus bolster the idea of a more?variable Nile.

?當然莺匠，這些預測具有不確定性，尤其是因為不斷變化的全球氣候模式導致了很多變數(shù)。但是研究者認為，過去數(shù)十年間的趨勢似乎與他們的想法一致，同時，考慮到厄爾尼諾的影響，所以尼羅河的水流量會更加多變這一觀點具有可信度汞窗。這些由太平洋的溫度變化引起的巨大氣候變化與尼羅河的水流量相關蜘矢，而氣候變化研究表明未來會發(fā)生更多極端厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象，所以這支撐了尼羅河情況會更加多變的觀點。?

not least

【釋義】especially 特別蔑穴；尤其

【例句】The documentary caused a lot of bad feeling, not least among the workers whose lives it described.那部紀錄片引起了許多人的反感捐腿，尤其是在片中描寫到其生活的工人宪祥。?

be lent credibility /lend credibility to sth

【釋義】給…增添可信度，使…更為可信

【例句】Saving?more than?the expenditures will itself lend credibility?to?your?maturity?status.?存的比花的多毫無疑問是你成熟的最可靠標志扑馁。

【拓展】lend support, weight, credence, etc. to sthto make sth seem more likely to be true or genuine 對…提供支持（或強有力的證據(jù)、可靠性等使看起來更真實）

① This latest evidence lends support to her theory.這一最新的證據(jù)更加印證了她的理論乱投。

② Historical evidence lends credence to his theory.史學根據(jù)使他的理論更為可信媳纬。???

More storage capacity will be needed to?smooth out the Nile’s flow. But unlike?Egypt’s large Aswan Dam, which was built?with storage in mind, the new Ethiopian?one is designed for electricity production.?Once water starts?gushing through its turbines,?it is expected to produce over 6,000?megawatts?of power. It is unclear, though,?if the structure has the necessary flexibility?to meet downstream demands in periods?of?prolonged drought.?The talks between the three countries?seem to?be glossing over?the potential effects?of climate change. The filling of the?reservoir is being negotiated in terms of?years, but nature may not co-operate with?their timeline. The countries?would be better?off focusing on how much water is?needed?downstream, which will vary in?wet?and dry?years, say?experts. Similar considerations?will need be taken into account?when running the dam. “Nowhere in the?world are two such large dams on the?same river operated without close co-ordination,”?says another study from MIT. But?so far co-operation is in short supply. The?latest round of talks has been postponed.?Even the methodology of?impact studies is?cause for?wrangling.??

我們需要利用更大的蓄水能力來調(diào)節(jié)尼羅河的水流量米死。但是這一大壩與埃及的阿斯旺大壩不同窗慎，人們在建造阿斯旺大壩之時就想到了其蓄水能力尉辑，但是埃塞俄比亞的新建大壩的設計初衷是為了發(fā)電嘱么。一旦河水開始涌過大壩里的渦輪機，這預計會產(chǎn)生超過6,000兆瓦的電力。但是蚪黑，現(xiàn)在仍有一點不確定郊愧，即這一構造在長期干旱的時期是否有必需的靈活性來滿足下游地區(qū)的需求。三國之間的談判似乎忽視了氣候變化的潛在影響蝶防。他們正從長期角度出發(fā)，協(xié)商向水庫注水這一問題窒盐，但是大自然可能不會配合他們的計劃膜钓。專家表示，如果三國把注意力放在下游地區(qū)需要的水量上撩扒，他們的情況可能會比較樂觀吨些，而下游需水量在澇年和旱年的情況又是不盡相同的。在使用大壩的過程中缝裤，我們也需要考慮到類似的問題∧诶辏“這么大的兩座大壩建在同一條河流上瘪撇，且運行時彼此之間沒有密切的協(xié)作茸俭，這在全世界是絕無僅有的虹脯，”麻省理工學院的另一項研究表示。但是到現(xiàn)在為止奏候，它們之間仍缺少合作循集。最新的一輪談判已經(jīng)延后。哪怕是研究影響的方法都會引起他們之間的爭執(zhí)鼻由。

?gloss over sth

【釋義】to avoid talking about sth unpleasant or embarrassing by not dealing with it in detail 掩飾暇榴；掩蓋厚棵；把…搪塞過去

【例句】He glossed over any splits in the party.他掩飾了黨內(nèi)出現(xiàn)的任何分裂現(xiàn)象蕉世。

The documentary glossed over some important issues.這部電影搜集了大量翔實的資料蔼紧，但是它卻繞開了一些重要的問題。

【情境】

①我和一個好朋友一起出去旅行狠轻，整個旅程差強人意奸例。回來之后向楼，別人問我們玩兒得如何查吊。還沒等我張口，我那快人快語的朋友搶先說我們的旅程多精彩湖蜕，看到的景色多迷人逻卖，沒有一句不好，沒有一點抱怨昭抒。She chose to gloss over all of them.

②美國的教育制度時常受到稱贊评也，美國的大學也是國際學生們出國深造的首選，不過灭返，美國大學的學費也貴得可以盗迟。在這里，學生貸款負債平均值達到10萬甚至20萬美元熙含，但是罚缕，universities don't include those numbers on their web sites. They conveniently gloss over these shocking statistics! 大學不會把這些數(shù)字發(fā)在他們的網(wǎng)站上，他們很“方便”地忽略了這些統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)?

?Once the dam is up and running, the?Nile’s variability will be controllable for?some 60 years, say Messrs Siam and Eltahir.?That assumes the dam is flexible?enough and that the countries work together.?Even then, storage would have to be?increased by about 45% to keep things?steady for the next 60 years. So the countries?have time to build new?dams; but that?will need even greater co-operation.?暹羅和Eltahir表示怎静，一旦大壩建成投入使用邮弹，尼羅河的變化在大約60年的時間里都會在控制范圍內(nèi)。這一說法建立在該大壩具有足夠的靈活性且各國之間能夠合作的假設之上蚓聘。即使到了那個時候肠鲫，大壩的蓄水能力也必須增加約45%以保持之后60年的穩(wěn)定。所以這些國家有足夠的時間建造新的大壩或粮，但是這需要進一步的合作导饲。??