Autonomous Vehicles Fall Into The Trough Of Disillusionment ... But That's Good

自動駕駛汽車駛?cè)牖孟肫茰绲牡凸?.....但這未必是壞事

Autonomous vehicles have plunged into the Trough of Disillusionment!

自動駕駛汽車行業(yè)已經(jīng)陷入了幻想破滅的低谷厂僧！

????????When I say it like that, it seems like the end is near, that the billions of dollars that have been spent on developing AVs is for naught.

????????當(dāng)你聽到我這樣說的時候逼肯，似乎覺得自動駕駛行業(yè)氣數(shù)將盡，用于開發(fā)自動駕駛汽車的數(shù)十億美元都將付諸東流俏扩。

????????In fact, it was inevitable and a good sign for the technology. This year, I was the lead author on Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Connected Vehicles and Smart Mobility and our group placed autonomous vehicles into the Trough of Disillusionment.

????????事實上揩悄，這是技術(shù)發(fā)展的必然趨勢和良好標(biāo)志卖哎。我是今年Gartner咨詢公司《互聯(lián)汽車和智能出行的炒作周期》的首席撰稿人。我們的研究小組認(rèn)為自動駕駛汽車行業(yè)的發(fā)展目前已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了幻想破滅的低谷時期删性。

????????The Hype Cycle is a very useful report that looks at a range of technologies and concepts and tries to plot their maturity against the hype they are receiving. The idea is that technologies are hyped well ahead of their actual impact. By the time they are mature, they aren’t hyped much any longer.

????????《互聯(lián)汽車和智能出行的炒作周期》是一個非常實用的報告亏娜，它關(guān)注了一系列技術(shù)和概念，并試圖從它們受到的過度炒作背后還原它們的真實面貌蹬挺。我們認(rèn)為技術(shù)在實際發(fā)揮影響之前往往會被大肆宣傳和過度炒作维贺。當(dāng)這些技術(shù)成熟后，它們才不會被如此炒作巴帮。

????????For autonomous vehicles and other technologies that are put on the cycle, the idea is to peg the moment when buzz is extremely high and then, later, to find the moment when buzz is fading in the face of commercialization or implementation efforts. And often there is a consolidation of suppliers and tightening of resources as it becomes clear the market can’t support more players.

????????對于自動駕駛和其他符合這些周期性炒作規(guī)律的技術(shù)溯泣，我們的想法是首先盯住炒作聲浪非常高的時刻，然后找到商業(yè)化或技術(shù)落地時炒作消退的階段榕茧。通常這一階段會伴有供應(yīng)商整合和資源緊縮垃沦，市場也無法再容納更多的參與者進(jìn)入。

????????We plot technologies as they pass to each of the five stages on the cycle.

????????我們繪制了技術(shù)在過度炒作和宣傳周期中的五個階段用押。

????????Over the past year, there have been a number of signs that this is occurring with autonomous vehicles. The sale of nuTonomy to Delphi (which became Aptiv), was a major event as nuTonomy was a leading independent autonomous vehicle developer. That sale was only a few months after Intel purchased Israeli safety-system company, Mobileye, for more than $15 billion. And while companies continue to get funding in the autonomy space, some of the smaller players are beginning to feel the squeeze as venture funders are getting more picky about investments.

????????在過去一年中肢簿，有許多跡象表明這種周期性炒作情況正在發(fā)生在自動駕駛行業(yè)。nuTonomy是一家領(lǐng)先的獨立自動駕駛汽車開發(fā)商蜻拨。因此nuTonomy被出售給德爾福（即后來的Aptiv公司）是一個重要標(biāo)志池充。這筆交易就發(fā)生在英特爾以超過150億美元收購以色列安全系統(tǒng)公司Mobileye的幾個月后。雖然很多自主研發(fā)自動駕駛技術(shù)的公司仍然能獲得投資缎讼，但是一些規(guī)模較小的公司開始感到壓力纵菌，因為風(fēng)險投資者開始變得越來越謹(jǐn)慎。

????????Bloomberg recently wrote about the challenges of Quanergy, which at one point was probably the hottest name in LiDAR sensors. They are the laser range finders that are used to help AVs “see.” It’s likely that struggles will become more common because it will be years before mass commercialization of the technology, and there are dozens and dozens of potential suppliers. In other words, it will be a long time before the revenue starts pouring in, and when it does, not everyone in the race now will be getting it.

????????彭博社最近寫到了激光雷達(dá)行業(yè)最熱門公司之一的Quanergy所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)休涤。它開發(fā)的激光雷達(dá)傳感器咱圆，能用于幫助自動駕駛汽車“看見”世界笛辟。由于技術(shù)大規(guī)模商業(yè)化將需要數(shù)年，并且該領(lǐng)域有數(shù)十個潛在的供應(yīng)商序苏，因此激光雷達(dá)行業(yè)內(nèi)的斗爭可能會變得更加普遍手幢。換句話說，實現(xiàn)可觀的營收還需要很長時間忱详。而且當(dāng)這個行業(yè)開始賺錢時围来，也不是現(xiàn)在的每個參與者都能分到一杯羹。

????????Unquestionably, the accidental killing of a pedestrian in Arizona by an Uber autonomous vehicle development vehicle, as well as the death of a man using Tesla’s Autopilot driver assistance system have drawn concerns about the readiness of the technology to be deployed.

????????毫無疑問匈睁，優(yōu)步的自動駕駛汽車在亞利桑那州意外撞死一名行人监透，以及使用特斯拉自動駕駛輔助系統(tǒng)的一名男子的死亡，已經(jīng)引起了人們對該技術(shù)是否已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備就緒的擔(dān)憂航唆。

????????Hype is still relatively strong, but it isn’t the same as 2015 when the timetable for companies developing autonomous vehicles seemed reasonable and the impact enormous. That was when Gartner put the technology at the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Now, on the back half of 2018, the planned launch schedules for autonomous vehicles are beginning to feel uncomfortably close.

????????炒作的聲浪依然很高胀蛮，但與2015年不同的是，當(dāng)時開發(fā)自動駕駛汽車的公司制定的時間表看起來似乎很合理糯钙，而且影響也很大粪狼。Gartner將那個時期的自動駕駛技術(shù)放在了預(yù)期膨脹的頂峰。現(xiàn)在任岸，在2018年的后半段再榄，自動駕駛汽車的計劃發(fā)布時間變得越來越近，近得令人感到不安享潜。

????????Waymo certainly is holding up its part of the bargain and plans to debut its commercial ride-hailing service using driverless minivans later this year. If it does, it will be a giant accomplishment. General Motors plans to launch autonomous vehicles next year in a ride-hailing fleet. Then a slew of other companies plans to debut cars in 2020 and 2021.

????????Waymo仍然在按部就班地履行自己的承諾困鸥，并計劃在今年晚些時候推出使用它自主研發(fā)的無人駕駛面包車的商業(yè)乘車服務(wù)。如果到時候兌現(xiàn)承諾剑按，這將是一項巨大的成就疾就。通用汽車計劃明年推出一個自動駕駛汽車商業(yè)車隊。其它一些公司計劃在2020年和2021年發(fā)布各自的自動駕駛汽車吕座。

????????But as these promised deployments grow ever closer, there still are questions about whether the technology will be ready for commercial deployment.

????????但隨著這些承諾的自動駕駛部署計劃越來越接近虐译，仍然存在關(guān)于該技術(shù)是否可以實現(xiàn)商業(yè)化落地的問題瘪板。

????????Meanwhile, the U.S. government still hasn’t been able to pass a law to govern their safety. Cities and states are wondering what they should do to regulate these vehicles.

????????與此同時吴趴，美國政府仍然還未能夠通過法律來監(jiān)督它們的安全問題。各大城市和各大州都在想辦法如何管理這些即將到來的自動駕駛車輛侮攀。

????????Audi said the lack of clarity on regulations is preventing it from selling the A8 equipped with Traffic Jam Assist in the U.S. It is the first so-called Level 3 system, which allows drivers to take their hands off the wheel and let the car drive up to about 35 mph.

????????奧迪表示锣枝，缺乏明確的法規(guī)阻礙了它在美國銷售配備了交通擁堵輔助系統(tǒng)Traffic Jam Assist的新A8車型。新A8是世界上第一個被稱為達(dá)到了自動駕駛3級水平的車型兰英。它允許駕駛員將手從方向盤上移開并讓汽車以大約35英里每小時的速度自主行駛撇叁。

? ??????The technology must go forward through the cycle, and I expect that if it follows form, there will be more delays and struggles to commercialize the technology, but that will not diminish its importance. In a few years, it will be climbing up the Slope of Enlightenment and into the Plateau of Productivity. By then, it won’t be hyped nearly as much, but it will be a lot more useful.

????????技術(shù)的發(fā)展必定會經(jīng)歷這樣一個宣傳炒作周期才會逐漸成熟。按照我的期望畦贸，如果自動駕駛技術(shù)按照這個規(guī)律發(fā)展陨闹，在技術(shù)真正商業(yè)化之前將會需要更多的時間和努力楞捂，但這并不會降低其重要性。幾年后趋厉，它將攀爬上啟蒙的山坡并邁入生產(chǎn)力的高原寨闹。到那時，它不會像如今這樣被大肆宣傳炒作君账，但它會更加惠及大眾繁堡。

By Mike Ramsey