Why the history of economic growth should be all about recessions
“THROUGHOUT history, poverty is the normal condition of man,” wrote Robert Heinlein, a science-fiction writer. Until the 18th century, global GDP per person was stuck between $725 and $1,100, around the same income level as the World Bank’s current poverty line of $1.90 a day. But global income levels per person have since accelerated, from around $1,100 in 1800 to $3,600 in 1950, and over $10,000 today.
為何經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)史的一切端由應(yīng)是衰退
“縱觀歷史，貧窮是人類(lèi)社會(huì)的常態(tài)”思灌，科幻作家羅伯特·海因萊因?qū)懙酪票亍Ｖ钡?8世紀(jì)薪前，全球人均GDP一直停留在725至1100美金之間，這個(gè)收入水平大約與世界銀行劃定的貧困線持平窘俺，每天1.9美金。但從那時(shí)起，全球人均收入水平開(kāi)始加速增長(zhǎng)垛耳。從1800年的1100美金到1950年的3600美金，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)超過(guò)10000美金飘千。
Economists have long tried to explain this sudden surge in output. Most theories have focused on the factors driving long-term economic growth such as the quantity and productivity of labour and capital. But a new paper* takes a different tack: faster growth is not due to bigger booms, but to less shrinking in recessions. Stephen Broadberry of Oxford University and John Wallis of the University of Maryland have taken data for 18 countries in Europe and the New World, some from as far back as the 13th century. To their surprise, they found that growth during years of economic expansion has fallen in the recent era—from 3.88% between 1820 and 1870 to 3.06% since 1950—even though average growth across all years in those two periods increased from 1.4% to 2.55%.
長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)堂鲜，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家試圖解釋這一產(chǎn)出激增。大多數(shù)理論都聚焦于驅(qū)動(dòng)長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的因素护奈，如勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量和生產(chǎn)力以及資本缔莲。但是一篇新論文采取了不同的方法進(jìn)行探究：增長(zhǎng)加速并不是源于于繁榮期的更大發(fā)展，而是因?yàn)樗ネ似诘氖湛s程度減弱霉旗。牛津大學(xué)的史蒂芬·布勞德伯利和馬里蘭大學(xué)的約翰·瓦利斯收集了歐洲和美洲的18個(gè)國(guó)家的數(shù)據(jù)痴奏，有些甚至追溯到13世紀(jì)。令他們驚訝的是厌秒，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張年份的增長(zhǎng)率在近期反而是下降的读拆，從1820年至1870年的3.88%下降到1950年至今的3.06%，盡管這兩個(gè)時(shí)期里所有年份的平均增長(zhǎng)率從1.4%上升到了2.55%鸵闪。
