作者們研究了1820-1931發(fā)生在拉丁美洲的主權(quán)債務(wù)違約情況莲蜘，發(fā)現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)性主權(quán)違約危機(jī)（至少有三分之一的國(guó)家集體違約）集中在不同時(shí)期的金融中心危機(jī)發(fā)生附近。這意味著金融中心危機(jī)引發(fā)的系統(tǒng)性違約危機(jī)對(duì)邊緣國(guó)家(periphery countries)有著深遠(yuǎn)的負(fù)面影響谚咬。
相對(duì)于獨(dú)立主權(quán)違約危機(jī)(idiosyncratic crises)蜒谤，系統(tǒng)性主權(quán)違約危機(jī)通常是在違約國(guó)家international liquity[1]崩潰的過程中萌發(fā)。
此外，系統(tǒng)性違約危機(jī)時(shí)期的受災(zāi)國(guó)家出口減速程度也遠(yuǎn)低于獨(dú)立主權(quán)違約危機(jī)時(shí)期嫉称。
這樣的情況表明，系統(tǒng)性違約危機(jī)和獨(dú)立違約危機(jī)的分野在于灵疮，走出系統(tǒng)性違約危機(jī)不僅需要阻止international liquity繼續(xù)下滑织阅，也還要大力提振本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。
比之獨(dú)立主權(quán)違約危機(jī)始藕，系統(tǒng)性違約危機(jī)有著更長(zhǎng)的影響期蒲稳，讓投資人遭受更嚴(yán)重的損失。
作者們認(rèn)為伍派，始于金融中心的系統(tǒng)性違約危機(jī)產(chǎn)生的負(fù)面影響會(huì)令邊緣國(guó)家陷入冗長(zhǎng)無用的債務(wù)談判中。要幫助它們走出違約困境剩胁，危機(jī)國(guó)家需要得到更多的債務(wù)減計(jì)诉植。
債務(wù)減計(jì)簡(jiǎn)直無情（不過我們內(nèi)心可以這樣安慰：反正不也拿不回來錢嘛，倒不如賣個(gè)人情...）昵观。中國(guó)未來的國(guó)際金融中心（上海晾腔？）能在世界市場(chǎng)上有著如論文里提到的金融中心那般舉足輕重的影響嗎？又是否也會(huì)在某個(gè)時(shí)刻（注定）引爆一場(chǎng)世界性的金融危機(jī)呢啊犬？
原文: Eurozone crisis: Looking back to the future
CheatSheet
linger [VERB]
: When something such as an idea, feeling, or illness lingers, it continues to exist for a long time, often much longer than expected.
portray [VERB]
: To represent or describe someone or something in a painting, film, book or other artistic work
persistent [VERB]
: If an unpleasant feeling or situation persists, it continues to exist
idiosyncratic
: A strange or unusual habit, way of behaving or feature that someone or something has
woe
: extreme sadness
escalate [VERB]
: increase or develop by successive stages; become or make (sth) more intense
mire[NOUN]
: an unpleasant situation which is difficult to escape
ridden [COMB in ADJ]
: full of something unpleasant or bad
erupt [VERB]
: to explode or burst out suddenly
standstill[NOUN]
: a condition in which all movement or activity has stopped
midst [PREP-PHRASE]
: If something happens in the midst of an event, it happens during it
on the heels of
: soon after something.
bonanza
: a situation from which large profits are made
underwriter [N-COUNT]
: If a bank or other organization underwrites an activity, it gives it financial support and takes responsibility for paying any costs if it fails
onset [N-SING]
: The onset of something is the beginning of it, used especially to refer to something unpleasant
insurance [NOUN]
: Release
restructure [VERB]
: To organize a company, business or system in a new way to make it operate more effectively
protracted [ADJ]
: Lasting for a long time or made to last longer
sluggish [ADJ]
: moving or operating more slowly than usual and with less energy or power
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the term 'international liquidity' embraces all those assets which are internationally acceptable without loss of value in discharge of debts (on external accounts. For more details, click What is International Liquidity ?
