The dollar reigns supreme in global finance. It accounts for a dominant share of international financial transactions and is the ultimate safe haven currency. But the US currency’s supremacy cannot be taken for granted. President Donald Trump may be sowing the seeds of its demise.
美元在全球金融中有著至高無(wú)上的地位。它占據(jù)了國(guó)際金融交易的主導(dǎo)份額，并且是終極的避險(xiǎn)貨幣猖腕。但美元霸權(quán)不能被視為理所當(dāng)然箱熬。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)可能正在種下導(dǎo)致其滅亡的禍根砚殿。
Mr Trump has often called for a weaker dollar, apparently to counter other countries that he claims are taking unfair advantage of the US by weakening their currencies to boost exports. Talk is cheap, however, and such statements by themselves will hardly derail the dollar. The real damage to its standing is more insidious and comes from policies that are eroding America’s fiscal stability, its trustworthiness and the strength of its institutions.
特朗普經(jīng)常呼吁讓美元保持弱勢(shì)粘茄，這顯然是為了抗擊那些他宣稱通過(guò)削弱本幣來(lái)增加出口從而占美國(guó)便宜的國(guó)家侨核。然而圣絮，話語(yǔ)是廉價(jià)的祈惶，而這些話語(yǔ)本身很難讓美元栽跟頭。真正破壞美元地位的東西更為隱蔽，它來(lái)自侵蝕美國(guó)財(cái)政穩(wěn)定捧请、可靠性和制度強(qiáng)健度的政策凡涩。
In times of financial turmoil — including the global financial crisis, which originated in the US — panicky investors flood into US bond markets. No doubt the sheer size of the American government and corporate bond markets is a key factor. But there is something subtler and more important that accounts for the dollar’s status.
在金融動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期——包括源于美國(guó)的全球金融危機(jī)——恐慌的投資者涌入美國(guó)債券市場(chǎng)。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)疹蛉，美國(guó)政府和公司債券市場(chǎng)的龐大規(guī)模本身是一個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素活箕。但是有一些更微妙和更重要的因素可以解釋美元的地位。
It comes down to trust. Flows into and out of currency and equity markets, where people make consequential financial decisions, show how trust matters even in seemingly cold-hearted and dispassionate decision-making.
歸根結(jié)底是信任可款。貨幣和股票市場(chǎng)（人們做出重要金融決策的地方）的資金流入和流出表明育韩，信任即使是在看上去冷酷無(wú)情的決策過(guò)程中也非常重要。
The institutions that engender and maintain the trust of both domestic and foreign investors include an open and transparent system of democratic government with checks and balances. This needs to be underpinned by a central bank free from direct political interference and the rule of law administered by an independent judiciary.
讓國(guó)內(nèi)外投資者產(chǎn)生并維持信任的制度包括一個(gè)開放而透明闺鲸、有著制衡機(jī)制的民主政府筋讨。這需要有不受直接政治干預(yù)的中央銀行、以及由獨(dú)立司法機(jī)構(gòu)執(zhí)行的法治作支撐摸恍。
Trust in US institutions is why, despite the prospect of rising government debt levels and the economic uncertainty unleashed by Mr Trump, the dollar remains strong. But this strength could prove fleeting. At present, most international financial transactions are denominated and settled in dollars and often through American financial institutions. This would change rapidly if investors believed that reckless fiscal policies could heighten volatility and erode the dollar’s value.
美元面對(duì)美國(guó)政府債務(wù)水平上升前景以及特朗普帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性依然堅(jiān)挺悉罕，其原因就在于人們對(duì)美國(guó)制度的信任。然而立镶，美元的堅(jiān)挺事實(shí)上可能會(huì)是短暫的壁袄。目前，大多數(shù)國(guó)際金融交易都以美元計(jì)價(jià)和結(jié)算媚媒，而且往往通過(guò)美國(guó)金融機(jī)構(gòu)結(jié)算嗜逻。如果投資者認(rèn)為魯莽的財(cái)政政策可能會(huì)加劇波動(dòng)并削弱美元的價(jià)值，這種情況將會(huì)迅速發(fā)生變化欣范。
As it is, the falling cost of transacting in other currencies and the rise of emerging market currencies such as China’s renminbi are already reducing the dollar’s role in denominating and settling cross-border transactions. China and South Korea are conducting trade using their own currencies rather than relying on the dollar as a “vehicle currency”. The logic for denominating in dollars virtually all contracts for oil and other commodities is waning.
即便是現(xiàn)在变泄，以其他貨幣進(jìn)行交易的成本下降以及人民幣等新興市場(chǎng)貨幣崛起，已經(jīng)在削弱美元在跨境交易的計(jì)價(jià)和結(jié)算中的地位恼琼。中國(guó)和韓國(guó)正在用兩國(guó)自己的貨幣進(jìn)行貿(mào)易妨蛹，而不是依靠美元作為“工具貨幣”。將美元作為石油和其他大宗商品幾乎所有合約的計(jì)價(jià)貨幣晴竞，已經(jīng)在喪失合理性蛙卤。
Other forces are at work. Under Mr Trump, the US is increasingly seen as an unreliable partner in trade, military and other agreements. This has damaged its international credibility and also sown fear that Mr Trump could wield the dollar as a weapon of control over other countries. Consequently, China and Russia, among others, are setting up their own payment systems and channels that bypass the US.
其他因素正在起作用。在特朗普的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下噩死，美國(guó)日益被視為貿(mào)易颤难、軍事和其他協(xié)議中不可靠的合作伙伴。這損害了美國(guó)的國(guó)際信譽(yù)已维，也令人擔(dān)心特朗普可能將美元作為控制其他國(guó)家的武器行嗤。因此，中國(guó)和俄羅斯等國(guó)正在建立繞開美國(guó)的自己的支付系統(tǒng)和渠道垛耳。
Perhaps, even if the dollar wanes as the dominant medium of exchange, it will remain unparalleled as a safe haven. Foreign investors, including central banks, have shown no signs of forsaking their dollar assets.
或許栅屏，即使美元作為主要交易媒介的角色減弱飘千，它仍將是一個(gè)無(wú)可比擬的避險(xiǎn)港。包括央行在內(nèi)的外國(guó)投資者沒有表現(xiàn)出放棄美元資產(chǎn)的跡象栈雳。
US institutions have indeed withstood the test of time, but taking them for granted could prove costly. When the American political system has come under severe stress in the past, a free press, backed by an independent judiciary, has functioned as a correcting mechanism. All of these institutions are under attack from Mr Trump, abetted by a Republican-dominated Congress.
美國(guó)的制度確實(shí)一直經(jīng)受住了時(shí)間的考驗(yàn)护奈，但將其視為理所當(dāng)然可能會(huì)付出沉重代價(jià)。過(guò)去當(dāng)美國(guó)政治體系承受巨大壓力時(shí)哥纫，得到獨(dú)立司法機(jī)構(gòu)支撐的自由新聞媒體起到了糾正制度問(wèn)題的作用霉旗。如今在共和黨控制的國(guó)會(huì)的慫恿下，特朗普正在攻擊所有這些機(jī)構(gòu)蛀骇。
The dollar’s supremacy depends not just on America’s economic or military strength, but also on the durability and strength of its institutions. It is precisely these that the Trump administration is eroding — something even his devoted base might one day come to rue.
美元霸權(quán)不僅依賴于美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)或軍事實(shí)力厌秒，也依賴于其制度的持久性和強(qiáng)健度。這正是特朗普政府正在削弱的東西松靡，甚至他的忠實(shí)擁躉總有一天也會(huì)為此懊悔简僧。
