【導(dǎo)讀】受制于黨內(nèi)分歧，陸克文在大選中面臨困境香伴。然而反對黨領(lǐng)袖托尼-阿博特又不是那么讓人放心具则。聚集了大量移民的西悉尼地區(qū)具帮，或許將是左右這次選舉的關(guān)鍵。
Australia’s general election:
澳大利亞大選
Why Parramatta matters
巴拉瑪打?yàn)楹沃匾?/p>
Though voters prefer the prime minister, the opposition, under Tony Abbott, looks likely to win
盡管選民們偏愛現(xiàn)任總理匪凡，但托尼·阿博特領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的反對黨貌似要贏
Aug 31st 2013 | SYDNEY |From the print edition
TWO notable apologies came from the political leaders invited to the India Australia Friendship Fair on August 25th. Kevin Rudd, the Labor prime minister (pictured, above, left), was called to Canberra for a briefing on Syria so could not attend. Tony Abbott, the opposition leader (above, right), flew to Brisbane to launch his campaign for Australia’s general election on September 7th. Opinion polls suggest Mr Abbott and his Liberal-National coalition will end six years of Labor rule.
8月25日印澳友好大會上病游，有兩位政治領(lǐng)袖的缺席引人注目稠通。工黨領(lǐng)袖，陸克文首相（上圖左）被召回堪培拉聽取關(guān)于敘利亞安全簡報滋尉，所以缺席飞主。反對黨領(lǐng)袖托尼·阿博特(上圖右）則飛往布里斯班，開始為9月7日的澳大利亞大選造勢碾篡。民調(diào)顯示筏餐，阿博特和他的自由國家聯(lián)盟，將會為這六年的工黨執(zhí)政畫上句號眼姐。
The two federal leaders missed a colourful day of Bollywood music, Indian food and speeches from across Australia’s political divide. Anglo-Celtic politicians who did show up mingled with a 15,000-strong crowd of Indians, Sri Lankans, Bangladeshis, Nepalese and Chinese. Understanding the jamboree’s importance, Mr Rudd and Mr Abbott each sent along their minister and shadow minister for immigration.
兩位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人錯過了精彩的一天：寶萊塢音樂，印式食物罢杉，還有來自全澳各政治派別的演說贡歧。而參與活動的凱爾特族裔政客，則與到場的15000多人玩到了一塊律想。其中有印度人绍弟，斯里蘭卡人，孟加拉人而叼，尼泊爾人豹悬，中國人。陸克文與阿博特派出了各自的移民部長與影子移民部長脱篙，可見他們對友好大會的重視伤柄。
The fair happened in Homebush, a suburb in the heart of western Sydney. Australia’s biggest city is a chief battleground for the election. Its sprawling western suburbs, home to almost half of metropolitan Sydney’s 4.7m people, will see some of the closest contests. Over the past three decades immigration has transformed what were once white, working-class Labor heartlands into modern Australia’s new frontier. Some 27% of Australians were born overseas. In some parts of western Sydney, the proportion is more than half.
大會舉辦地為康寶樹，西悉尼中部的郊區(qū)考抄。悉尼蔗彤，這個全澳最大城市，是選戰(zhàn)的主戰(zhàn)場贫途。大都市悉尼大約有一半的居民生活在那并不規(guī)整的西部郊區(qū)待侵，而他們將會見到最激烈的選舉競爭。過去三十年來怨酝，移民讓這片曾經(jīng)白種工人階級的中心地帶成為了現(xiàn)代澳大利亞的嶄新前沿。大約27%的澳大利亞國民出生在海外赡艰。在西悉尼的一些地段斤葱，這個比率超過了50%。
Parramatta, one of the oldest suburbs, has drawn many settlers from India, now Australia’s biggest source of immigrants. Cabramatta, about 12 kilometres (7.5 miles) to the south-west, is home to thousands of boat people and their descendants who fled Indochina after the Vietnam war. Political allegiances have swung unpredictably. Chris Hayes, who holds the constituency around Cabramatta for Labor, predicts a lot more volatility in how the west votes this time.
巴拉瑪打是歷史最為悠久的郊區(qū)之一料身，這里聚集著大量印度移民衩茸，而印度楞慈，則是現(xiàn)今澳大利亞最大的移民來源地。西南約12公里（7.5英里）的卡巴瑪打則是數(shù)千船民及其后裔的寓所抖部，越南戰(zhàn)爭后慎颗，他們逃離了印度支那言询。這里的政治傾向搖擺不定。這一地區(qū)的工黨候選人克里斯-海耶斯預(yù)計(jì)道夫啊，這一次西悉尼的選情將有甚多變化辆憔。
It was partly in the hope of containing that volatility that Labor Party barons dismissed Julia Gillard in June as leader and prime minister and reinstalled Mr Rudd. Under the less popular Ms Gillard, Labor faced big losses in Sydney and other parts of New South Wales, the most populous state. At first the gamble seemed to work, with some opinion polls showing Labor neck-and-neck with the opposition. But they now point to a coalition win. Mr Rudd has had trouble selling to voters the government’s strongest story: its success in keeping the economy growing through the global financial crisis and holding unemployment down to 5.7%. Instead, voters are put off more by Labor’s turmoils since it came to power in 2007: two leadership changes, from Mr Rudd to Ms Gillard and back again, and bitter personal rivalry between the pair. An opinion poll the day before the Homebush fair suggested several Labor-held seats in western Sydney could fall. Labor will also struggle in Queensland, Mr Rudd’s home state; he may even battle to hold his own seat in suburban Brisbane. A senior Labor parliamentarian at the fair thought that “people have stopped listening to Kevin”.
在選戰(zhàn)中獲得主動的希望虱咧，部分是來自今年六月工黨大佬們決定罷免當(dāng)時的總理與黨領(lǐng)袖茱莉亞·吉拉德，并重新啟用陸克文玄坦。吉拉德治下的工黨，在悉尼與新南威爾士州的其他部分遭受了重大的損失豺总，而且這是人口最多的州择懂。一開始，工黨的孤注一擲效果不錯沸枯，一些民調(diào)顯示工黨能與反對黨并駕齊驅(qū)赂弓。但現(xiàn)在卻顯示自由國家聯(lián)盟將獲勝。陸克文已經(jīng)很難向選民去推銷那套最有力的關(guān)于政府的說辭：政府成功地在全球金融危機(jī)中保持住了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長翔怎，并且將失業(yè)率降到了5.7%杨耙。相反，選民更多地因?yàn)楣h2007上臺以后不斷的內(nèi)斗而離開：領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人換了兩班容握，從陸克文到吉拉德车柠，又換回陸克文；而且這一對之間還有激烈的競爭谈跛。印澳友好大會前一天的民調(diào)顯示塑陵，在西悉尼，工黨可能會失去幾個本屬自己的席位阻桅。在陸克文的家鄉(xiāng)昆士蘭兼都，工黨同樣將陷入苦戰(zhàn)；他甚至有可能要為布里斯班郊區(qū)他自己的議會席位而戰(zhàn)输瓜。在友好大會上，一位工黨資深議員認(rèn)為“人們已不愿聽取陸克文的說辭”搔啊。
Mr Abbott has played ruthlessly on Labor’s troubles. He asks Australians if they can “afford another three years like the last six”. A junkyard dog by his own admission, Mr Abbott once had a reputation for gaffes. He has run a disciplined campaign on this occasion, however. The big question is over his sprawling spending plans, which put him at odds with the Liberal Party’s pro-market, small-government stance. He has failed to explain convincingly how he would fund them, especially after the Treasury recently cut forecasts of government revenues over the next four years by A$33 billion ($29 billion).
對于工黨的困境北戏，阿博特表現(xiàn)得很殘酷嗜愈。他問全澳民眾道他們是否“還承受得起又一個三年，像之前六年一樣的三年”蠕嫁。阿博特曾有常失態(tài)的名聲，他也承認(rèn)自己令人討厭病袄。但這次他在競選活動中表現(xiàn)得體赘阀。不過他那大膽的政府開支計(jì)劃基公，卻與自由黨親市場，小政府的立場相違背轰豆，這是個大問題秒咨。他沒能夠令人信服地解釋出政府將如何資助這些計(jì)劃掌挚，特別是最近財(cái)政部預(yù)計(jì)未來四年的政府收入將降低330億澳元（290億，美元）陡厘。
If he wins, Mr Abbott promises that his first act will be to abolish Labor’s carbon tax, introduced last year. In place of a market means of fighting climate change, he offers “direct action”: spending more than A$3 billion over four years on inducements for big carbon-emitters to clean up their acts. Critics argue that such a scheme would be open to abuse.
如果獲勝特占，阿博特承諾將首先廢除工黨于去年推出的碳排放稅。為了取代之前那對抗氣候變化的市場化方法谤饭，他提供了一個“直接方案”：于四年內(nèi)花上超過30億澳元，以此激勵碳排放大戶清理碳排放亡容。批評家稱這樣的計(jì)劃是為違法違規(guī)敞開大門冤今。
But Mr Abbott’s most controversial policy involves the federal government giving maternity leave to women earning up to A$150,000 a year at full salary for six months. He plans to cover half the cost with a 1.5 percentage-point rise in the corporate tax rate on high-earning companies. Mr Abbott hatched the maternity-leave idea as a bid to improve his poor standing among women voters. Several prospective ministerial colleagues disapprove of it, and economists have slammed it. Saul Eslake, of Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Australia, calls it a “dreadful policy” that would not bear out Mr Abbott’s claim that it would raise productivity. Mr Eslake says Mr Abbott’s “dubious view of markets” and “greater enthusiasm for government intervention” could dull any business and investor confidence that might follow a coalition win.
不過戏罢，阿博特最具爭議的政策，是令聯(lián)邦政府補(bǔ)貼六個月的全額工資給收入達(dá)到15萬澳元每年的女性桐磁。他計(jì)劃提高企業(yè)所得稅1.5%翩蘸，以此來填補(bǔ)這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃的一半成本。阿博特所醞釀的這個產(chǎn)假方案扶踊，是為了改善他在女性選民中的糟糕形象郎任。幾位黨內(nèi)同僚，未來的部長候選表示反對分井，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家猛烈抨擊霉猛。美銀美林澳洲分行的索爾-艾斯雷克稱此計(jì)劃為“可怕的政策”，認(rèn)為它不會像阿博特所稱的那樣提高生產(chǎn)率瘫辩。艾斯雷克稱阿博特的“對市場暗昧不明的看法”與“更大的政府干預(yù)熱情”會傷害企業(yè)與投資者的信心坛悉，而他們本將支持自由國家聯(lián)盟的獲勝裸影。
Mr Rudd started his campaign’s last stages on August 27th with a speech on foreign policy, a field in which Mr Abbott has shown minimal interest. Hugh White, a thinker on foreign policy, reckons Mr Rudd’s ideas on Australia’s international standing are “incomparably better informed” than either Ms Gillard’s or Mr Abbott’s. But they are less likely to swing votes in regions such as western Sydney than the strong anti-Rudd campaign from the two-thirds of Australia’s big-city newspapers run by News Corporation, Rupert Murdoch’s vehicle. National polls still show that Australians would prefer Mr Rudd to Mr Abbott as prime minister, but they are fed up with Labor. A last-minute Labor win would take a miracle.
8月27日陸克文發(fā)表了一場關(guān)于外交政策的演說，開啟了他最后一階段的競選卷扮，而外交是阿博特關(guān)注最少的領(lǐng)域。外交政策專家休-懷特認(rèn)為衔瓮，陸克文關(guān)于澳大利亞國際地位的理念比吉拉德或是阿博特的“毫無疑問更出色”抖甘。默多克的新聞集團(tuán)掌握著三分之二澳大利亞大城市的報紙，他們發(fā)起了倒陸運(yùn)動薇宠。在改變類似西悉尼地區(qū)選民意見這個問題上艰额，這些報紙顯然比陸克文的這些理念更為有力。全國民意調(diào)查仍然顯示澳大利亞人更愿讓陸克文做總理回梧，而非阿博特祖搓。但是他們受夠了工黨拯欧，所以工黨要在最后時刻逆襲，需要奇跡镐作。
From the print edition: Asia
