The only way the United States can remain the world's most prosperous, powerful country is by embracing immigration. That's the inescapable conclusion from a published on Tuesday in the Lancet that predicts the world's population will peak far sooner than anticipated, and start shrinking before the end of this century.
美國要保持世界上最繁榮惶室，最強大的國家的唯一途徑就是擁抱移民啃炸。這是《柳葉刀》周二發(fā)表的一份不可避免的結(jié)論屏轰，該結(jié)論預(yù)測世界人口的峰值將比預(yù)期的要早得多拯坟，并且將在本世紀末開始萎縮。
There is, however, no guarantee that the US will embrace immigration, even to save itself. Domestic politics, currently inflamed by divisive nativist leaders, have turned immigration into a contested topic. A country that rose to historic heights of influence and prosperity by welcoming immigrants, is now led by a President who has weaponized the issue with unfathomable cruelty.
但是宏蛉，不能保證美國會接受移民肯污，甚至是為了挽救自己。分裂的本土主義者領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人當前激怒的國內(nèi)政治已將移民問題變成一個有爭議的話題彩届。一個通過歡迎移民升至歷史高位的影響力和繁榮的國家伪冰，現(xiàn)在由總統(tǒng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，他以殘酷的殘酷手段為這一問題提供了武器樟蠕。
One example: At this moment, hundreds of migrant families held in detention facilities face the of whether to let their children be released to third parties, or stay together in detention. This awful decision comes as the result of court order last month that called for the children's release in light of the coronavirus pandemic -- and it is essentially a new version of the family separation policy that tore apart? earlier in the Trump administration.
一個例子：目前贮聂，被關(guān)押在拘留設(shè)施中的數(shù)百個移民家庭面臨著是讓其子女被釋放給第三方還是留在拘留中的問題。這個可怕的決定是上個月法院命令要求根據(jù)冠狀病毒大流行將兒童釋放的結(jié)果-這本質(zhì)上是家庭分離政策的新版本寨辩，該政策在特朗普政府早些時候已經(jīng)瓦解了吓懈。
Such heartless political measures flout America's founding principles -- but are also out of step with public opinion on immigration: an overwhelming majority of Americans -- , according to a recent 2020 Gallup poll- say it is good for the country. The prospect of falling birth rates predicted by study -- from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine -- may be a thumb on the scale in favor of more immigration. After all, businesses will need workers. Even the military will likely feel the pressure of contracting numbers of people of military age.
蓋洛普（Gallup）最近進行的2020年民意測驗顯示，這種無情的政治措施fl視了美國的建國原則-但也與公眾對移民的看法不符（絕大多數(shù)美國人）-這對美國有利靡狞。華盛頓大學(xué)醫(yī)學(xué)院的健康指標與評估研究所的研究預(yù)測耻警，出生率下降的前景可能是支持更多移民的規(guī)模。畢竟甸怕，企業(yè)將需要工人甘穿。即使是軍人，也可能會感受到與軍人人數(shù)簽約的壓力梢杭。
The new study shows how far off the mark earlier assumptions about exploding population growth fell. Some among you, my dear readers, may remember when intellectuals were gripped by the fear of a "Malthusian catastrophe," fear that population growth would outpace our ability to feed ourselves. But it turns out that , the 18th century economist and demographer, got it all wrong.
這項新的研究表明温兼，先前關(guān)于人口爆炸性增長的假設(shè)與預(yù)期相差甚遠。親愛的讀者武契，你們中間的某些人可能會記得知識分子被“馬爾薩斯災(zāi)難”的恐懼所束縛募判，他們擔心人口增長將超過我們養(yǎng)活自己的能力。但是事實證明咒唆，18世紀的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家和人口統(tǒng)計學(xué)家完全錯了届垫。
Not only did agricultural advances undercut his thesis, it turns out the world's population will start contracting before long, with powerful economic, geopolitical and environmental implications.
農(nóng)業(yè)的發(fā)展不僅削弱了他的論點，而且事實證明钧排，世界人口將很快開始收縮敦腔，這將對經(jīng)濟，地緣政治和環(huán)境產(chǎn)生重大影響恨溜。
According to the study, population will climb from the current 7.8 billion to 9.7 billion by 2064, but that will be the end of the increases. By 2100, it will shrink by almost a billion people, to 8.8 billion. The downward trend, a revolution triggered by the education of women, who choose to have fewer babies, will affect almost every country -- 183 out of 195 -- on Earth.
根據(jù)這項研究符衔，到2064年，人口將從目前的78億增加到97億糟袁，但這將是增長的終點判族。到2100年，它將減少近十億人口项戴，達到88億形帮。下降趨勢是由婦女的教育引發(fā)的一場革命，婦女選擇減少生育，這將影響地球上幾乎每個國家-195個國家中的183個辩撑。
To keep the population unchanged, women must have an average of 2.1 babies, the replacement fertility rate, the study found. The rate has nosedived from 3.2 in 1990 to 2.5 last year, and,? is continuing to crash.
研究發(fā)現(xiàn)界斜，為了保持人口不變，婦女必須平均有2.1個嬰兒合冀，即替代生育率各薇。失業(yè)率從1990年的3.2下降到去年的2.5，并且繼續(xù)崩潰君躺。
Adding to the demographic transformation, medical advances will extend life expectancy, producing a lopsided age distribution, with growing numbers of old people and diminishing numbers of young, working-age citizens.
隨著人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化峭判，醫(yī)學(xué)的進步將延長人們的預(yù)期壽命，造成年齡分布的偏差棕叫，老年人的數(shù)量不斷增加林螃，年輕的適齡工作的公民數(shù)量正在減少。
The massive population revision from recent estimates, has repercussions that boggle the mind.
根據(jù)最近的估計俺泣，大規(guī)模的人口修訂產(chǎn)生了令人震驚的后果疗认。
On the positive side, the strain on resources will diminish. Perhaps Earth can at last catch a break. But picture an economy where the number of retired people grows far faster than the number of productive workers, who have to keep the economy moving and pay enough taxes to support growing health care and retirement costs. Who's going to do all the work? Who's going to pay all the taxes? Who's going to keep countries competitive, strong enough to defend from potentially aggressive rivals?
從積極的一面來看，對資源的壓力將減少砌滞。也許地球終于可以休息了侮邀。但是，想象一下一個經(jīng)濟體贝润，退休人口的增長遠遠快于生產(chǎn)工人的數(shù)量绊茧，后者必須保持經(jīng)濟發(fā)展并支付足夠的稅款，以支持不斷增長的醫(yī)療保健和退休成本打掘。誰來做所有的工作华畏？誰來支付所有稅款？誰將保持國家的競爭力尊蚁，強大到足以抵御潛在的侵略性競爭對手亡笑？
The answer lies in expanding the workforce. That can be done by coaxing older workers to remain productive and by encouraging more women to enter the workforce. But that only goes so far. The obvious solution is to allow workers from countries where the population continues to grow or exceeds job opportunities, to make up for shortfalls. That is, immigration.
答案在于擴大勞動力。要做到這一點横朋，可以誘使年長的工人保持生產(chǎn)力仑乌，并鼓勵更多的婦女加入勞動大軍。但這只是到目前為止琴锭。顯而易見的解決方案是允許人口持續(xù)增長或超過工作機會的國家的工人彌補短缺晰甚。即移民。
Shrinking populations are disastrous for economic growth, not only because of the obvious labor shortages, but because they reduce consumption. They reduce the need for building factories, for expanding infrastructure. Lower demand can send economies into a tailspin of deflation, or simply produce stubborn stagnation.
人口減少對經(jīng)濟增長而言是災(zāi)難性的决帖，這不僅是因為明顯的勞動力短缺厕九，還因為它們減少了消費。它們減少了建造工廠和擴展基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的需求地回。較低的需求可能使經(jīng)濟陷入通縮的泥潭扁远，或者僅僅是造成頑固的停滯俊鱼。
The of the looming crisis -- should it happen as predicted -- is astonishing. In? the population will shrink by more than half, others will contract nearly as much. Japan will go from 128 million in 2017 to 60 million in 2100; Italy from 61 to 31 million, Spain from 46 to 23 million, South Korea from 53 to 27 million. China, America's principal economic and geostrategic rival, will shrink from the current 1.4 billion to 730 million, the study predicts.
迫在眉睫的危機-如果如預(yù)期的那樣發(fā)生-令人震驚。人口將減少一半以上畅买，其他人口將減少近一半并闲。日本將從2017年的1.28億增加到2100年的6000萬；意大利從61增至3100萬皮获，西班牙從46增至2300萬焙蚓，韓國從53增至2700萬。研究預(yù)測洒宝，作為美國主要的經(jīng)濟和地緣戰(zhàn)略對手，中國將從目前的14億縮減至7.3億萌京。
And the US? The study optimistically predicts that the collapse in fertility rates in the US will be offset by -- that's right -- immigration. That infusion of new muscle, new talent and new stamina, has the power not only to preserve America's preeminent position on the global stage, but also to reverse the current trend that has
而美國呢雁歌？這項研究樂觀地預(yù)測，美國生育率的下降將被（正確的）移民所抵消知残。注入新的力量靠瞎，新的才能和新的耐力不僅有能力維護美國在全球舞臺上的卓越地位，而且有能力扭轉(zhuǎn)目前的趨勢求妹。
The study forecasts that the US economy will regain its top spot by 2098, as China shrinks and the US thrives, partly due to a constant refreshing of its population.
該研究預(yù)測乏盐，隨著中國的萎縮和美國的蓬勃發(fā)展，美國經(jīng)濟將在2098年重新奪回榜首制恍，部分原因是其人口的不斷更新父能。
If the US is need of an example of how crucial this is, it can look at Japan, where a declining population has caused economic stagnation. The? have tried to solve this by enticing women into the workforce, but it's not enough. Now the government is inviting? to try to replace nonexistent Japanese.
如果美國需要一個舉足輕重的例子，可以看看日本净神，那里人口的減少導(dǎo)致了經(jīng)濟停滯何吝。他們試圖通過誘使女性加入勞動力市場來解決這一問題，但這還不夠【槲ǎ現(xiàn)在爱榕，政府正在邀請嘗試取代不存在的日本人。
Italy can also serve as a cautionary tale. It didn't need the Lancet to see the crisis. The number of working-age Italians has been crashing for years. The crisis was temporarily stalled by immigrants, but a right-wing government built its political support by attacking migrants, and now Italy is entering a? whose solution will not please nativist demagogues.
意大利也可以作為一個警示故事坡慌。不需要柳葉刀就可以看到這場危機黔酥。工作年齡的意大利人的數(shù)量已經(jīng)崩潰了多年。這場危機暫時因移民而陷入停頓洪橘，但是右翼政府通過襲擊移民來建立其政治支持跪者，現(xiàn)在意大利正在進入一種解決方案，其解決方案不會取悅本土主義者梨树。
The result will be increased friction over immigration, with the arguments of immigration advocates bolstered by demographers, economists and a business community anxious to see consumption increase and workers available.
結(jié)果將是移民問題上的摩擦加劇坑夯，人口統(tǒng)計學(xué)家，經(jīng)濟學(xué)家和工商界都支持移民擁護者的論點抡四，他們急于看到消費增加和有工人可用柜蜈。
The present may be blazing with the demagogues' sturm und drang about keeping immigrants out. But the future belongs to the country that welcomes them.
目前仗谆，可能是煽動者對將移民拒之門外的猛烈抨擊。但是未來屬于歡迎他們的國家淑履。
*V*這里是小泡哥打造的英語學(xué)習(xí)環(huán)境,學(xué)英語,就要泡在英語中隶垮。在這里，小泡哥帶你點點滴滴積累英文秘噪，讓我們泡在英語中狸吞，一起學(xué)習(xí)，一起進步指煎。
