The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.
黑天鵝理論兆沙，也叫黑天鵝事件理論锻狗，是一個比喻碱鳞，形容一個出人意料的事件。這個事件往往產(chǎn)生了重大的影響赞弥，并且事后(after the fact with the benefit of hindsight)常常被錯誤地解構(gòu)分析(inappropriately rationalized)。這個詞源于口口相傳(ancient saying)巩步，古時人們一直認(rèn)為黑天鵝并不存在哩俭。后來隨著黑天鵝在戶外(in the wild)被發(fā)現(xiàn)，這個傳說便被賦予了時代內(nèi)涵(become interpreted to teach a different lesson)丹允。
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
這個理論是由Nassim Nicholas Taleb 開創(chuàng)并闡釋的：
- The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
- 引人注意的(high-profile)郭厌、出乎意料的(hard to predict)稀有事件的不成比例性(disproportionate)袋倔。這些事件超出了歷史雕蔽、科學(xué)、金融宾娜、技術(shù)等領(lǐng)域的常規(guī)預(yù)期范圍(realm of normal expectations)
- The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
- 使用科學(xué)方法（依靠特別小概率性質(zhì)/nature）的結(jié)果罕有事件(consequential rare events)的概率的無法計算性批狐。
- The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.
- 無知的(blind)個人(individually)或群體(collectively)面對史實(shí)(historical affairs)中的不確定性(uncertainty)和罕有事件的巨大作用(massive role)產(chǎn)生的認(rèn)知偏差(psychological biases)
Unlike the earlier and broader "black swan problem" in philosophy (i.e. the problem of induction), Taleb's "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences. More technically, in the scientific monograph 'Silent Risk', Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as "stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability".
不像早期更廣為流傳(broader)的哲學(xué)名詞“黑天鵝問題”（例如，歸納問題/problem of induction）前塔，Taleb的“黑天鵝理論”只是描述重大的(large magnitude and consequence)意外事件(unexpected events)以及它們在歷史上所起的主導(dǎo)作用(dominant role)嚣艇。這些被視為異常(considered extreme outliers)的事件相比普通事件(normal occurrences)產(chǎn)生了更為深遠(yuǎn)的影響(collectively play vastly larger roles)。從專業(yè)的角度說(more technically)华弓，在其科學(xué)專著(monograph)《沉默的風(fēng)險》中食零，Taleb從數(shù)學(xué)上證明了黑天鵝問題“源于(stem from)退化元概率(degenerate metaprobability)的使用”。
