Europe faces an enduring crisis of energy and geopolitics

This will weaken it and threaten its global position

歐洲面臨著一場(chǎng)持久的能源和地緣政治危機(jī)

這將削弱它并威脅到它的全球地位

If you ask?Europe’s friends around the world what

they think of the old continent’s prospects they often respond with two

emotions. One is admiration. In the struggle to help Ukraine and resist Russian

aggression, Europe has displayed unity, grit and a principled willingness to bear

enormous costs. But the second is alarm. A brutal economic squeeze will pose a test

of Europe’s resilience in 2023 and

beyond. There is a growing fear that the recasting of the global energy system, American

economic populism and geopolitical rifts threaten thelong-run competitiveness of the European Union and non-members, includingBritain. It is not just the continent’s prosperity that is at risk, the healthof the transatlantic alliance is, too.

如果你問歐洲在世界各地的朋友征炼，他們?nèi)绾慰创@個(gè)古老大陸的前景析既，他們的回答通常有兩種情緒。一個(gè)是欽佩谆奥。在幫助烏克蘭和抵抗俄羅斯侵略的斗爭(zhēng)中眼坏，歐洲表現(xiàn)出了團(tuán)結(jié)、勇氣和承擔(dān)巨大代價(jià)的原則性意愿。但第二個(gè)是恐慌宰译。殘酷的經(jīng)濟(jì)緊縮將在2023年及以后考驗(yàn)歐洲的韌性檐蚜。人們?cè)絹?lái)越擔(dān)心，全球能源體系的重塑沿侈、美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)民粹主義和地緣政治分歧會(huì)威脅到歐盟和包括英國(guó)在內(nèi)的非歐盟成員國(guó)的長(zhǎng)期競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力闯第。不僅歐洲大陸的繁榮受到威脅，跨大西洋聯(lián)盟的健康也受到威脅缀拭。

Don’t be fooled by the rush of good news from Europe in the past few

weeks. Energy prices are down from the summer and a run of good weather means that gas storage is

nearly full. But the energy crisis still poses dangers. Gas prices are six

times higher than their long-run average. On November 22nd Russia threatened tothrottle the lastoperational pipeline to Europe, even as missile attacks caused emergency powercuts across Ukraine. Europe’s gas storage will need to be refilled once againin 2023, this time without any piped Russian gas whatsoever.

不要被過去幾周從歐洲傳來(lái)的一連串好消息所迷惑咳短。能源價(jià)格從夏季開始下降，而連續(xù)的好天氣意味著天然氣儲(chǔ)備接近飽和蛛淋。但能源危機(jī)仍然是個(gè)危險(xiǎn)咙好。天然氣價(jià)格是長(zhǎng)期平均價(jià)格的六倍。11月22日褐荷，俄羅斯威脅要切斷通往歐洲的最后一條輸油管勾效，盡管導(dǎo)彈襲擊導(dǎo)致烏克蘭全境緊急斷電。到2023年叛甫，歐洲的天然氣儲(chǔ)藏庫(kù)將需要再次補(bǔ)充层宫，這一次沒有任何來(lái)自俄羅斯的管道天然氣。

Vladimir Putin’s energy weapon will exact a toll beyond Ukraine.

Our modelling suggests that, in a normal winter, a 10% rise in real energy

prices is associated with a 0.6% increase in deaths. Hence the energy crunch this yearcould cause over

100,000 extra deaths of elderly people across Europe. If so, MrPutin’s energy weapon could take more lives outside Ukraine than his artillery, missiles and drones do directly within it. That is one more reason why Ukraine’s resistance to Russia is Europe’s fight, too.

弗拉基米爾?普京的能源武器所造成的損失將超過烏克蘭合溺。我們的模型表明卒密，在一個(gè)正常的冬天缀台，實(shí)際能源價(jià)格上漲10%棠赛，死亡人數(shù)就會(huì)增加0.6%。因此膛腐，今年的能源短缺可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致整個(gè)歐洲有超過10萬(wàn)名老年人額外死亡睛约。從這角度看，普京先生的能源武器在烏克蘭境外造成的死亡人數(shù)可能比他的大炮哲身、導(dǎo)彈和無(wú)人機(jī)在烏克蘭境內(nèi)直接造成的死亡人數(shù)還要多辩涝。這就是為什么烏克蘭對(duì)俄羅斯的抵抗也是歐洲的戰(zhàn)斗的另一個(gè)原因。

The war is also creating financial vulnerabilities. Energy inflation

is spilling over into the rest

of Europe’s economy, creating an acute dilemma for the European Central Bank. It needs to raise

interest rates to control prices. But if it?goes too farit could

destabilise the euro zone’s weaker members, not least indebted Italy.

這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)也在造成金融方面的脆弱性勘天。能源通脹正在蔓延到歐洲其它經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域怔揩，令歐洲中央銀行陷入嚴(yán)重的兩難局面。它需要提高利率以控制物價(jià)脯丝。但如果它用力過猛商膊，可能會(huì)破壞歐元區(qū)較弱成員的穩(wěn)定，尤其是負(fù)債累累的意大利宠进。

Even as the energy crisis rages, the war has exposed a vulnerability inEurope’s business model. Too many of Europe’s industrial firms, especiallyGerman ones, have relied on abundant energy inputs from Russia. Plenty ofcompanies have also become more dependent on another autocracy, China,as an end market.The prospect of severed relations with Russia, structurally higher costs and adecoupling of the West and China has meant areckoning in many boardrooms.

正在能源危機(jī)肆虐之際晕拆，這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)也暴露出歐洲商業(yè)模式的一個(gè)弱點(diǎn)。太多的歐洲工業(yè)企業(yè)材蹬，尤其是德國(guó)企業(yè)实幕，依賴俄羅斯豐富的能源輸入吝镣。許多公司也變得更加依賴另一個(gè)專制國(guó)家，秦國(guó)昆庇，作為終端市場(chǎng)末贾。與俄羅斯斷絕關(guān)系的前景、結(jié)構(gòu)性的高成本以及西方與秦國(guó)的脫鉤整吆，意味著許多公司的董事會(huì)要進(jìn)行破產(chǎn)清算未舟。

That fear has been amplified by America’s economic nationalism which

threatens to draw activity across the Atlantic in a whirlwind of subsidies and

protectionism. President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act involves $400bn of

handouts for energy, manufacturing and transport and includes make-in-America

provisions. In many ways the scheme resembles the industrial policies that China haspursued for decades. As the other two pillars of the world economy become moreinterventionist and protectionist, Europe, with its quaint insistence onupholding World Trade Organisation rules on free trade, looks like a sucker.

這種擔(dān)憂被美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)民族主義放大了，后者可能會(huì)在補(bǔ)貼和保護(hù)主義的旋風(fēng)中吸引大西洋彼岸的蠢蠢欲動(dòng)掂为。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)喬?拜登的《通貨膨脹削減法案》涉及4000億美元的能源裕膀、制造業(yè)和運(yùn)輸業(yè)補(bǔ)貼，其中包括“美國(guó)制造”條款勇哗。在許多方面昼扛，該計(jì)劃與中國(guó)幾十年來(lái)推行的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策相似。隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的另兩大支柱傾向更加干涉主義和保護(hù)主義欲诺，堅(jiān)持維護(hù)世界貿(mào)易組織自由貿(mào)易規(guī)則的歐洲看起來(lái)就像個(gè)傻瓜抄谐。

Already, companies are reacting to the subsidies.

Northvolt, a prized Swedish battery startup, has said that it

wants to expand production in America. Iberdrola, a Spanish energy company, is

investing twice as much in America as in the European Union. Many bosses warn

that the combination of expensive energy and American subsidies leaves Europe

at risk of mass deindustrialisation.?BASF, a German chemicals giant, recently unveiled plans toshrink its European operations “permanently”. It does not help that Europe isageing faster than America, too.

企業(yè)們已經(jīng)開始對(duì)補(bǔ)貼做出反應(yīng)。瑞典備受贊譽(yù)的電池初創(chuàng)企業(yè)諾伏(Northvolt)表示扰法，希望擴(kuò)大在美國(guó)的產(chǎn)能蛹含。西班牙能源公司Iberdrola在美國(guó)的投資是在歐盟的兩倍。許多企業(yè)老板警告說(shuō)塞颁，昂貴的能源加上美國(guó)的補(bǔ)貼浦箱，使歐洲面臨大規(guī)模去工業(yè)化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。德國(guó)化工巨頭巴斯夫(BASF)最近公布了“永久性”縮減其歐洲業(yè)務(wù)的計(jì)劃祠锣。歐洲人口老齡化速度也比美國(guó)快酷窥，這也于事無(wú)補(bǔ)。

Losing investment makes Europe poorer and feeds into a sense

of declining

economic vigour. Compared with its pre-covid?GDP?trajectory, Europe has done

worse than any other economic bloc. Of the world’s 100 most valuable firms,

only 14 are European. Politicians will be tempted to chuck out the rule book and respond with

subsidies of their own in an escalating arms race of corporate goodies. Germany’s economy

minister has accused America of “hoovering up investments”. President Emmanuel Macron of France hascalled for “a European wake-up”.

失去投資使歐洲更加貧窮伴网，加劇了經(jīng)濟(jì)活力下降的感覺蓬推。與新冠疫情前的gdp軌跡相比，歐洲的表現(xiàn)比任何其他經(jīng)濟(jì)集團(tuán)都要糟糕澡腾。在全球100家最有價(jià)值的公司中沸伏，只有14家是歐洲公司。政客們很可能會(huì)拋棄規(guī)則动分，以各自的補(bǔ)貼作為回應(yīng)毅糟，展開一場(chǎng)不斷升級(jí)的企業(yè)利益軍備競(jìng)賽。德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)部長(zhǎng)指責(zé)美國(guó)“豪搶投資”刺啦。法國(guó)總統(tǒng)埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍呼吁“歐洲覺醒”留特。

Thus the subsidy row is also feeding tensions between America and Europe. America’s

financial and military support for Ukraine vastly exceeds Europe’s, and as it pivots to Asia to meet

the challenge from China, America resents the?EU’s failure to pay for its ownsecurity. Most members of?NATO have failed to meet the goal of spending 2%of?GDP on defence. The?EU was staggeringly naive about Russianaggression. Although the war caused America and Europe to unite after theruptures of the Trump years, the danger is that a long conflict and economictensions will gradually pull them apart again. Mr Putin and China, would lovethat.

因此，補(bǔ)貼之爭(zhēng)也加劇了美國(guó)和歐洲之間的緊張關(guān)系。美國(guó)對(duì)烏克蘭的財(cái)政和軍事支持遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了歐洲蜕青，隨著美國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)向亞洲應(yīng)對(duì)來(lái)自中國(guó)的挑戰(zhàn)苟蹈，美國(guó)對(duì)歐盟未能為自己的安全買單感到不滿。大多數(shù)北約成員國(guó)都未能實(shí)現(xiàn)將GDP的2%用于國(guó)防的目標(biāo)右核。對(duì)于俄羅斯的侵略慧脱，歐盟天真得驚人。盡管這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)使美國(guó)和歐洲在特朗普時(shí)代的破裂之后團(tuán)結(jié)起來(lái)贺喝，但危險(xiǎn)在于菱鸥，長(zhǎng)期的沖突和經(jīng)濟(jì)緊張將逐漸使它們?cè)俅畏至选Ｆ站┖颓貒?guó)會(huì)樂見其成躏鱼。

To avoid a dangerous rift, America must see the bigger picture. Mr

Biden’s protectionism threatens to drain Europe of vitality even as America props up Ukraine’s army,

and armadas of tankers cross the Atlantic to supply Europe’s energy. The chief

aim of Bidenomics is to stop China dominating key industries: America has no

strategic interest in siphoning European investment. It should make European firms eligible forits energysubsidies, and integrate transatlantic energy markets more deeply.

為了避免危險(xiǎn)的裂痕氮采，美國(guó)必須站在更高的格局。拜登先生的保護(hù)主義有可能耗盡歐洲的活力染苛，即使是在美國(guó)支持烏克蘭軍隊(duì)鹊漠、大批油輪穿越大西洋為歐洲供應(yīng)能源的時(shí)候。拜登經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的主要目的是阻止中國(guó)主導(dǎo)關(guān)鍵行業(yè)：虹吸歐洲投資并不符合美國(guó)的戰(zhàn)略利益茶行。它應(yīng)該讓歐洲公司有資格獲得其能源補(bǔ)貼躯概，并更深入地整合跨大西洋能源市場(chǎng)。

Europe, meanwhile, needs to protect its economy againstthe energy squeeze. Schemes that rightly aim to subsidise consumers and firmsfor their basic energy needs should curb demand by charging higher prices atthe margin, as inGermany.To lower long-run energy prices Europe should accelerate the renewablesrevolution, while keeping energy markets open to competition. It also needs toadapt to a new security reality. That means spending more on defence so that itcan take up the burden as Americashifts its gaze towards Asia.

與此同時(shí)畔师，歐洲需要保護(hù)其經(jīng)濟(jì)免受能源短缺的影響娶靡。那些旨在補(bǔ)貼消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)基本能源需求的計(jì)劃，應(yīng)該像德國(guó)那樣看锉，通過提高邊際價(jià)格來(lái)抑制需求姿锭。為了降低長(zhǎng)期能源價(jià)格，歐洲應(yīng)該加速可再生能源革命度陆，同時(shí)保持能源市場(chǎng)的開放競(jìng)爭(zhēng)艾凯。它還需要適應(yīng)新的安全現(xiàn)實(shí)献幔。這意味著在國(guó)防上投入更多懂傀，以便在美國(guó)將目光轉(zhuǎn)向亞洲時(shí)能夠承擔(dān)起負(fù)擔(dān)。

Besides admiration and alarm, the other emotion governing

transatlantic relations is frustration. America is irritated by Europe’s

economic torpor and its failure todefend itself; Europe is outraged by America’s economic populism. But just asEurope must not be divided by the war, so it is vital that the most powerfuldemocratic alliance in history adapts—and endures.

除了欽佩和驚恐蜡感，支配大西洋兩岸關(guān)系的另一種情緒是沮喪蹬蚁。美國(guó)對(duì)歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的疲軟和未能自衛(wèi)感到惱火；歐洲則被美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)民粹主義激怒郑兴。但正如歐洲不能因戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)而分裂一樣犀斋，有史以來(lái)最強(qiáng)大的民主聯(lián)盟適應(yīng)并經(jīng)受住考驗(yàn)。