Part II:
The pace of change had not only quickened but was now happening at a global scale.
I. quicken:
世界變化的節(jié)奏快层亿,2007年:
科技領域:GitHub皆尔,Twitter璧眠,YouTube,F(xiàn)acebook,Kindle等新興科技公司技術大量出現(xiàn)杉畜,手機電腦绘面,互聯(lián)網快速改變人類的生活、社會生產等方式
生態(tài)環(huán)境:the beginning of the clean power revolution, 新型能源資源的開發(fā)分唾,風能,太陽能狮斗,LED光能绽乔,資源節(jié)約能源的研發(fā)。
生物技術:DNA sequencing began to fall dramatically as the biotech industry shifted to new sequencing techniques and platforms. 生物技術領域的迅速轉變碳褒,生物工程儀器設備的研發(fā)大大推動基因技術研究折砸。
科學技術,全球化沙峻,氣候環(huán)境三大因素推動世界快速前進睦授。作者提出,這些推動因素能產生影響摔寨,離不開計算機領域的快速發(fā)展——摩爾定律
摩爾定律:1965 年 互聯(lián)網創(chuàng)始人Gordon Moore 用來假定微芯片的速度去枷、內存容量—that is, computational processing power—would double roughly every year, which he later updated to every two years, for only slightly more money with each new generation.
摩爾定律推動更多全球化,全球化促進更多生態(tài)環(huán)境氣候改變是复;與此同時删顶,摩爾定律也推動對于這些潛在變化的處理方式的產生,改變著現(xiàn)代生活的各個方面淑廊。
而當現(xiàn)實世界快速變化時逗余,必存在跟不上變化節(jié)奏,便引起社會混亂和區(qū)域脫離季惩。
Disruption:is what happens when someone does something clever that makes you or your company look obsolete.
Dislocation: is when the whole environment is being altered so quickly that everyone starts to feel they can't keep up.”
但快速發(fā)展也有一定時間窗
That time window—has become so short that it's on the order of five to seven years from the time something is introduced to being ubiquitous and the world being uncomfortably changed.”重大科技的創(chuàng)新進步录粱,因為先前諸多的量變積累,而產生后5-7年內更多的是科技推廣画拾,創(chuàng)新發(fā)展步履放緩关摇。
II. At a globe scale:
Eric? Astro Teller, the CEO of Google's X research and development lab.
Astro Teller's Graph 的世界快速發(fā)展模型曲線:橫軸時間,縱軸改變速率碾阁,曲線模型冪方程输虱,從開始的時間積累到后期直線上升
At first it moves up very gradually, then it starts to slope higher as innovations build on innovations that have come before, and then it starts to soar straight to the sky.
Teller指出:曲線中間快速上升因為全球移動設備,云技術等科技的影響推動脂凶。作者通過某地方官員向財政部議員Summer轉達電話指令宪睹,提出范圍之廣愁茁。