? ? ? ? ? ? THE GREATEST WHIPSAWEVER
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 最大的賭約
In August1982, Mexicodefaultedon its debt. By then, it was clear to most everyone that a number of othercountries were about to follow. This was a huge deal, because U.S. banks hadlent about 250 percent of theircapitalto other countries just as at risk as Mexico.Business loanactivity inthe U.S. ground to ahalt.
譯文：1982年8月，墨西哥債務(wù)違約滩租。那時候廓潜，很顯然還有一大票國家也會跟隨墨西哥的腳步的。這可是大買賣窟绷，因為美國銀行已經(jīng)借出了大概250%本金給其他國家就像墨西哥的危機一樣啤它。美國的商業(yè)貸款基本陷入停頓载迄。
讀后感：上世紀(jì)70-80年代脑沿，墨西哥本來是美洲發(fā)展的相當(dāng)不錯的國家，當(dāng)時和美國不遑多讓，為什么就債務(wù)危機录语，違約了哪轴术？后來廣泛猜測是美國和歐洲的陰謀，具體不得而知钦无，但墨西哥到現(xiàn)在也沒緩過來。
給各位講個故事：春秋時期盖袭，齊國的管仲就玩過這個失暂，用本國的食鹽換鄰國的產(chǎn)品，而且指定我們只要這個鳄虱，等三年后弟塞，鄰國的經(jīng)濟就被齊國給控制了。這時齊國突然宣布不換了拙已，而且切斷食鹽供應(yīng)决记，鄰國直接經(jīng)濟崩潰。
美國現(xiàn)在玩的溜得很倍踪，說全球產(chǎn)業(yè)分工系宫，中國在這個布局中就是低端加工，出賣勞動力的角色建车。而高端扩借、高利潤的都被歐美日占了，很害怕中國起來掀了他們的攤子缤至，如果全球產(chǎn)業(yè)重新布局潮罪，那就要了美歐日的命了。
ground to ahalt.==陷入停頓领斥；
Business loan==商業(yè)貸款嫉到。
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Because Iwas one of the few people who had seen these things coming, I started to get alot of attention. Congress was holding hearings on the crisis and invited me totestify; inNovember I was the featured guest onWall $treet Week with
Louis Rukeyser, the must-watch show for anyone in the markets. In bothappearances, I confidently declared that we were headed for depression andexplained why.
譯文：因為我是少數(shù)看過這樣的事情發(fā)生過的人，我開始傾注大量注意力月洛。國會舉行聽證會何恶，并請我去聽證；11月我作為華爾街的主要客人和路易斯陸凱澤—市場必看的節(jié)目負(fù)責(zé)人膊存。從兩個現(xiàn)象我非常自信的宣布我們正面臨大蕭條导而，并解釋為什么這樣？
讀后感：
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AfterMexico’s default, the Fed responded to the economic collapse and debt defaultsby making money more readily available. This caused the stock market to jump bya record amount. While that surprised me, Iinterpretedit as a knee-jerk reaction to theFed’s move. After all, in 1929 a 15 percent rally was followed by the greatestcrash of all time. In October, I laid out myprognosisin a memo. As I saw it, there was a 75percent chance the Fed’s efforts would fall short and the economy would moveinto failure; a 20 percent chance it would initially succeed atstimulatingthe economybut still ultimately fail; and a 5 percent chance it would provide enoughstimulus to save the economy but triggerhyperinflation. To hedge against the worst possibilities,I bought gold and T-bill futures as a spread againsteurodollars, which was a limited-risk wayof betting on credit problems increasing.
譯文：墨西哥政府違約后隔崎，聯(lián)邦政府應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟崩潰和債務(wù)違約的反應(yīng)是想當(dāng)然印發(fā)更多的鈔票今艺，造成股市下降了一個記錄值，然而讓我吃驚的是爵卒，我推斷出這是聯(lián)邦政府的下意識的反應(yīng)虚缎，畢竟1929年史無前例的經(jīng)濟崩潰時聯(lián)邦政府也才采取了15%的超發(fā)貨幣。10月的時候我把預(yù)測寫在一份備忘錄上，就像我說的那樣实牡，聯(lián)邦政府的努力有75%的機會會在短期內(nèi)落空陌僵，經(jīng)濟依舊會失敗创坞；20%的機會會刺激經(jīng)濟但是依舊會衰弱下去碗短；有5%的機會能提供足夠的刺激以拯救經(jīng)濟，但會觸發(fā)超級泡沫（膨脹）题涨。為了對沖最壞的可能性偎谁，我買了黃金和短期債務(wù)證券—這是一種應(yīng)對增加中的信貸問題的有限風(fēng)險方法。
讀后感：在作者看來聯(lián)邦政府的救市政策是非常愚蠢的纲堵，幾乎沒有機會能取得勝利巡雨。作者還是用了比較委婉的說法。但是為什么當(dāng)時買黃金和短期國債來避險哪席函？黃金铐望、黃金出現(xiàn)了很多次了，看來黃金價格還要漲啊茂附。國內(nèi)的黃金也值得投資正蛙，但是注意別買了哪些不值得投資的黃金首飾、工藝品什么的何之。要買去銀行買跟畅。其他還有什么辦法哪？
Memo==備忘錄溶推；
Stimulating=刺激
Trigger==觸發(fā)
Hyperinflation==超級通脹
T-bill=美國政府發(fā)行的短期債務(wù)證券
limited-risk==有限風(fēng)險
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I was deadwrong. After a delay, the economy responded to the Fed’s efforts,reboundingin anoninflationary way. In other words, inflation fell while growth accelerated.The stock market began a big bull run, and over the next eighteen years the U.S. economy enjoyed thegreatest noninflationary growth period in its history.
譯文：我徹底錯了徊件。經(jīng)過一段時間延遲，對于聯(lián)邦政府的努力蒜危，經(jīng)濟開始以一種非通脹的方式復(fù)興了虱痕，通脹衰減而增速加速了。故事開始了一輪大牛市辐赞，一直到接下來的18年間部翘，美國經(jīng)濟都在享受著這股歷史上最大的非通脹的增速時期的福利。
讀后感：天哪响委！雷達(dá)利奧錯了新思，而且離譜。這是何解那赘风？難道是國運嗎夹囚？里根、克林頓政府都趕上好時候了邀窃。當(dāng)然他們本人和政府的應(yīng)對也不錯荸哟。作者當(dāng)時還是年輕啊。
bull run==牛市，股市活躍期鞍历。
Noninflationary==非通脹性的
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Howwas that possible?
Eventually,I figured it out. As moneypouredout of these borrower countries and into the U.S., it changed everything. Itdrove the dollar up, which produced deflationary pressures in the U.S., whichallowed the Fed to ease interest rates without raising inflation. Thisfueleda boom. The bankswere protected both because the Federal Reserveloaned them cash and the creditors’ committees andinternational financial restructuring organizations such as the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for InternationalSettlementsarranged things so that thedebtor nations could pay their debt service from new loans. That way everyonecouldpretendeverything was fine and write down those loans over many years.
譯文：為什么舵抹，怎么可能？最終我明白了劣砍。當(dāng)熱錢退出這些借錢的國家惧蛹，并進(jìn)入美國，推高了美元并改變了所有事情刑枝。制造了通脹減縮壓力赊淑，允許聯(lián)邦政府放松利率而不會引起通脹。相當(dāng)于添加了燃料帶旺了市場仅讽。銀行被美聯(lián)儲和債權(quán)委員會雙重保護(hù)，國際金融改革機構(gòu)如國際貨幣基金組織（imf）和國家清算銀行設(shè)計了一套制度钾挟，債務(wù)國家使用新的貸款用于償還他們的債務(wù)義務(wù)洁灵。每個人都能假裝所有事情都處于良好狀態(tài)，并能簽下多年的貸款合約掺出。
讀后感：imf和國際清算組織用較低的貸款利率讓發(fā)展中國家用長期貸款徽千，比如30-50年的貸款來償還發(fā)達(dá)國家的貸款。這一套有沒有用那汤锨？我國也通過這個貸了很多双抽，并在改開早期起到了很大的作用。但是其他國家并不具備中國的償還能力闲礼，很多國家連貸款利息都換不了牍汹，比如希臘，比如現(xiàn)在的土耳其柬泽，接下來會有很多歐洲國家慎菲，比如意大利。
這里面imf和美聯(lián)儲扮演了什么角色锨并？ 請看 《貨幣戰(zhàn)爭》露该。
Settlements==清算。
the Federal Reserve=美聯(lián)儲第煮。
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Myexperience over this period was like a series of blows to the head with abaseball bat. Being so wrong—and especially so publicly wrong—was incrediblyhumblingand cost me justabout everything I had built at Bridgewater. I saw that I had been anarrogantjerk who wastotally confident in a totally incorrect view.
譯文：這段時期我的經(jīng)歷就好像被棒球棍不停的打擊我的腦袋解幼。錯的太離譜了-特別還是公知的錯誤—就不可避免的貶低了自己，并耗盡了我在橋水基金做的所由事情取得的成績包警。我已經(jīng)成了一個傲慢無知的混蛋撵摆，對完全錯誤的觀點還在盲目自信。
讀后感：作者當(dāng)時才30多歲揽趾，此前的一帆風(fēng)順讓作者很自信台汇，這次打擊不算太糟糕，犯錯也要趁早，這樣還有機會恢復(fù)苟呐。
arrogant jerk==傲慢無知的混蛋痒芝。
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So there Iwas after eight years in business, with nothing to show for it. Though I’d beenright much more than I’d been wrong, I was all the way back tosquareone.
At onepoint, I’d lost so much money I couldn’t afford to pay the people who workedwith me. One by one, I had to let them go. We went down to two employees—Colmanand me. Then Colman had to go. With tears from all, his family packed up andreturned to Oklahoma. Bridgewater was now down to just one employee: me.
譯文：我已經(jīng)從事了8年的金融業(yè)務(wù)，然并卵牵素，盡管我對的時候遠(yuǎn)大于犯錯的時候严衬，我千方百計退回到古板保守的自己。那個時候我已經(jīng)損失了太多錢笆呆，我付不起工作伙伴的薪水请琳。一個接一個的，我不得不讓他們離開公司赠幕。只剩下兩個雇員-就是科爾曼和我俄精。接著科爾曼也不得不離開。所有人都含著眼淚榕堰，他和他的家人重新收拾并返回俄克拉荷馬州竖慧。橋水基金只剩下一個雇員：那就是我。
讀后感：橋水為什么會在這次事件中瀕臨破產(chǎn)逆屡？公司關(guān)門圾旨？作者投資了黃金和短期國債，應(yīng)該不至于賠錢魏蔗，一定是橋水的業(yè)務(wù)在作者的錯誤觀點的影響下砍的，做出了很多錯誤決策，比如拋售股票莺治，期貨等廓鞠，損失慘重啊。作者也因為損失慘重變的保守谣旁。
這和中國的情況不同：目前國內(nèi)的情況是外資流出嚴(yán)重诫惭，國內(nèi)融資成本居高，地方債務(wù)巨大蔓挖，經(jīng)濟運行成本加劇夕土。怎么辦？
Square==古板守舊瘟判。
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Losingpeople I cared so much about and very nearly losing my dream of working formyself wasdevastating.To make ends meet, I even had to borrow $4,000 from my dad until we could sellour second car. I had come to a fork in the road: Should I put on a tie andtake a job on Wall Street? That was not the life I wanted. On the other hand, Ihad a wife and two young children to support. I realized I was facing one oflife’s big turning points and my choices would have big implications for me andfor my family’s future.
譯文：關(guān)心的人離開怨绣、近乎丟棄夢想的工作讓我接近被毀滅。為了收支平衡拷获，我在賣了第二輛車后篮撑，不得不向父親借了4000美金。我不得不面臨抉擇：是去打上領(lǐng)帶去華爾街找份工作吶匆瓜？那不是我想要的生活赢笨。另一方面未蝌，我有老婆和兩個小孩要養(yǎng)。我意識到自己面臨人生最大的轉(zhuǎn)折點茧妒，我的選擇對我和我的家庭未來都將產(chǎn)生重大影響萧吠。
讀后感：這是作者的第一次大的挫折。我們接下來看看作者是如何應(yīng)對的吧桐筏。
make ends meet==量入為出纸型，收支平衡。
a fork in the road==三岔路口梅忌，面臨抉擇狰腌。
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我是007李小軍，以上是我自己的翻譯牧氮，也許不會太準(zhǔn)確琼腔，我能保證也不會偏離作者的意思太遠(yuǎn)，不至于誤導(dǎo)各位踱葛，謝謝觀看展姐。
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 007-4478李小軍
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2018-6-16
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 覺得好，就點贊剖毯，就轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)， 謝了教馆！
