【導(dǎo)讀】經(jīng)濟(jì)不振，西班牙社會(huì)黨掀不起風(fēng)浪。
Spain’s Socialists
西班牙社會(huì)黨人
Why Spain’s left is in a funk
為何西班牙的左翼政黨如此疲軟够委？
The party leader struggles to put the government’s unpopularity to use
社會(huì)黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人想利用政府的不得人心，卻有心無(wú)力
Mar 23rd 2013 | MADRID |From the print edition
ALFREDO PéREZ RUBALCABA, leader of Spain’s beleaguered opposition Socialists, is a man with a noose around his neck. It is slowly tightening. More than a year after his party lost power its poll ratings remain below those of Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party (PP). They are five points down on their November 2011 election result, standing at just 23%.
西班牙反對(duì)黨怖现，陷入困境的社會(huì)黨黨首，阿爾弗雷多·佩雷茲·魯瓦爾卡瓦玉罐，眼下正如一套索在項(xiàng)的絞刑犯屈嗤。而套索正慢慢收緊。他的政黨已經(jīng)失去執(zhí)政權(quán)一年多了吊输，其支持率仍然低于馬里亞諾·拉霍伊的人民黨（簡(jiǎn)寫(xiě)PP）饶号。如今他們的支持率僅有23%，比2011年11月的選舉結(jié)果低了5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)季蚂。
This is remarkable. Spain’s economy has tumbled deeper into recession under the premiership of Mr Rajoy. A further 700,000 people have joined the dole queues, pushing unemployment to 26.2% of the workforce. And as the value of their homes falls further, frightened Spanish consumers are keeping purses zipped tight. Many must raid savings to get by.
這結(jié)果是值得玩味的茫船。西班牙經(jīng)濟(jì)在拉伊霍總理的任期內(nèi)進(jìn)一步深陷衰退。新增的七十萬(wàn)領(lǐng)取失業(yè)金的民眾扭屁，將失業(yè)率抬高至26.2%算谈。而隨著房產(chǎn)價(jià)格的進(jìn)一步下跌，恐慌中的西班牙消費(fèi)者們選擇繼續(xù)捂緊錢包料滥。許多地產(chǎn)商必須大量借貸然眼，依賴國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄度日。
Wage earners and pensioners are all getting poorer. Of the more needy, 1.9m unemployed do not receive state benefits. And, as Spaniards digest tax rises and spending cuts, protests from health, education and other public workers are a daily occurrence.
在職者與退休人員都在變窮葵腹。而更貧窮的是那190萬(wàn)無(wú)社會(huì)保障的失業(yè)者高每。并且，由于西班牙人漸漸接受了增稅與削減開(kāi)支践宴，且渴望政府的財(cái)政健康鲸匿，所以教育與其他公共部門的工作者的職位，也危在旦夕阻肩。
Mr Rajoy’s PP, meanwhile, is engulfed in a corruption scandal. The man he appointed party treasurer, Luis Bárcenas, hid €22m ($28.5m) in Switzerland. Newspapers allege he ran a secret party slush-fund with senior PP noses in the trough. Promises of green pastures further down the road of austerity have yet to convince voters. The PP’s poll ratings have fallen from 45% to 24% since the election.
與此同時(shí)带欢，拉霍伊首相的人民黨正深陷腐敗丑聞。他所任命的黨內(nèi)財(cái)務(wù)主管路易斯·巴爾塞尼亞斯在瑞士私藏了2200萬(wàn)歐元（2850萬(wàn)美元）。媒體報(bào)道洪囤，在人民黨內(nèi)上司的首肯下徒坡，他建立了一個(gè)秘密黨內(nèi)小金庫(kù)。于緊縮中清廉執(zhí)政的承諾無(wú)法再使選民信服瘤缩。自選舉后喇完，人民黨的支持率從45%降至24%。
So why are the Socialists not storming ahead? Many Spaniards blame them for the current mess. A once buoyant economy crashed on the watch of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, a Socialist prime minister. Mr Rubalcaba, as deputy prime minister, was associated with the debacle. The party, meanwhile, is digging its own grave. Its Catalan wing rebelled in parliament recently, backing Catalonia’s “right to decide” on its future. That scares Socialist voters in other parts of Spain. But Mr Rubalcaba’s opposition to the idea puts off potential supporters in Catalonia, where Mr Zapatero anchored his victories. A messy town-hall coup in northern Ponferrada, which saw local Socialists ally with the convicted protagonist of a nasty sexual harassment case, showed the party in further disarray.
是以為何社會(huì)黨未能借此機(jī)會(huì)迎頭趕超剥啤？因?yàn)樵S多西班牙人認(rèn)為社會(huì)黨仍應(yīng)為當(dāng)下的混亂負(fù)責(zé)锦溪。曾經(jīng)欣欣向榮的經(jīng)濟(jì)，在社會(huì)黨人何塞·路易斯·羅德里格斯·薩帕特羅首相治下陷入蕭條府怯。而彼時(shí)的代首相魯瓦爾卡瓦刻诊，則與經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰聯(lián)系在一起。而此時(shí)的社會(huì)黨正在自掘墳?zāi)刮｜h內(nèi)的加泰羅尼亞勢(shì)力最近開(kāi)始反叛議會(huì)则涯，重啟爭(zhēng)取加泰人對(duì)未來(lái)的”決定權(quán)“的主張。這可嚇壞了西班牙其他地區(qū)的社會(huì)黨選民冲簿。但魯瓦爾卡瓦對(duì)這一主張的反對(duì)減少了加泰地區(qū)的潛在選民粟判，而這正是幫助薩帕特羅鎖定選舉勝利的地區(qū)。而在北部城市蓬費(fèi)拉達(dá)峦剔，一場(chǎng)混亂的档礁，因當(dāng)?shù)厣鐣?huì)黨人與一位下流的性騷擾案主角結(jié)盟而沖擊市政廳的活動(dòng)，表明了社會(huì)黨陷入進(jìn)一步的混亂的可能吝沫。
Mr Rubalcaba himself remains a problem. He has clung to the top job despite leading the party to an historic defeat in 2011. The 61-year-old veteran not only bears the Zapatero stigma, but also that of a minister in Felipe González’s 1990s governments. He is hardly a bright new broom for jaundiced left-wing voters. Some party leaders say so openly. “Many others agree with me,” said Tomas Gómez, a prominent rebel who heads the Madrid party branch.
魯瓦爾卡瓦自己也有麻煩呻澜。盡管在2011年的選舉中遭遇了歷史性的重挫，可他仍然牢牢把持著社會(huì)黨黨首的位置惨险。這位61歲的政壇老手不僅經(jīng)受過(guò)薩帕特羅時(shí)代的恥辱羹幸，而且早在90年代便在費(fèi)利佩·岡薩雷斯政府任職部長(zhǎng)。對(duì)激進(jìn)的左翼選民而言辫愉，他可算不上一位能帶來(lái)新風(fēng)的人物睹欲。一些黨內(nèi)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，譬如著名的反對(duì)派一屋，社會(huì)黨馬德里分部領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人窘疮，托馬斯·戈麥斯，甚至公開(kāi)宣稱：”另有許多人支持我冀墨≌⑸溃“
Mr Gómez may fancy himself as a candidate for the premiership, as does Patxi López, the popular former Basque regional president. Better bets are a former defence minister, Carme Chacón, aged 42, or one of the party’s parliamentary bosses, Eduardo Madina. Ms Chacón was narrowly beaten for the leadership by Mr Rubalcaba at a conference last year. She broke ranks with her Catalan colleagues to abstain in the vote on the “right to decide” in a tactical bid to stay in the running. Mr Madina is just 37, yet still experienced. He also wins sympathy for overcoming a terrorist bomb attack that blew off part of his leg. But he might not yet want the job.
戈麥斯或許在幻想自己能夠成為首相候選人，而廣受歡迎的巴斯克自治區(qū)前任主席帕池·洛佩茲也同樣诽嘉。更有把握的人選應(yīng)該是42歲的前任國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)卡梅·查孔蔚出，以及社會(huì)黨議院領(lǐng)袖愛(ài)德華多·麥地那弟翘。于去年的黨內(nèi)大會(huì)的黨首爭(zhēng)奪中，查孔女士以微弱劣勢(shì)惜敗于魯瓦爾卡瓦骄酗。她戰(zhàn)略性地與黨內(nèi)的加泰同僚脫離關(guān)系稀余，從而避免被卷入關(guān)于”決定權(quán)“的投票，得以繼續(xù)留于局內(nèi)趋翻。而麥地那只有37歲睛琳，經(jīng)驗(yàn)有限√だ樱恐怖炸彈襲擊使他失去了一截腿师骗，而戰(zhàn)勝苦難使他贏得了公眾的同情心。但他或許并不欲求這個(gè)職位讨惩。
Analysts predict that the economy will shrink by 1.5% this year; recovery in 2014 is uncertain. The European Commission expects unemployment will still be stuck above 26% next year. Elections will probably be held at the end of 2015. Austerity-exhausted Spaniards may demand change. But if the Socialists want power, they probably need a new leader.
分析人士預(yù)測(cè)今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)下滑1.5%辟癌，且并不確定到2014年是否能夠復(fù)蘇。歐盟委員會(huì)希望能將失業(yè)率控制在26%荐捻。而2015年末可能又將舉行選舉黍少。承受著緊縮之苦的西班牙人或許會(huì)要求改變。但若社會(huì)黨想要重掌權(quán)力处面，或許他們需要一個(gè)新的領(lǐng)袖厂置。
From the print edition: Europe
