本文英文版于2016年9月26日發(fā)表于一財全球嫁佳。為便于閱讀，以下先展示中文翻譯遥皂，英文原文在中文之后哦指攒。
This article was published by YiCai Global on Sep. 26, please find the English version after Chinese.
今年9月杭州G20 會議期間，印尼通信技術部長魯?shù)习菜?Rudiantara)任命馬云為其十名電子商務發(fā)展顧問之一。該職務工作內容尚未確定芹枷，但不論如何衅疙，馬云毫無疑問將為印尼擴展電商版圖作出貢獻。
已經(jīng)有不少評論者提出這會造成雙方利益沖突鸳慈。2016年5月饱溢，阿里巴巴集團對東南亞開展了大額投資，其中包括Lazada走芋。然而根據(jù)Bain & Company的最新調研“東南亞是否能如期發(fā)揮其電商潛力”表明理朋，目前尚無一家電商平臺在印尼的市場份額超過20%以上，且還有許多國際電商平臺計劃在印尼開設分公司－如亞馬遜計劃對該市場投資6億美金绿聘∷陨希可見，市場競爭非常激烈熄攘。
利益沖突并不是關鍵兽愤，事實是對馬云的任命體現(xiàn)了中國的電商模式正在成為中國新的“出口產(chǎn)品”。這種發(fā)展趨勢正如我定義的“中國電商模式（East-Commerce）”挪圾，即在發(fā)展中國家市場浅萧，中國的商業(yè)模式與西方模式相比更行之有效，并且成為商業(yè)模式的典范哲思。
印尼的電商市場
據(jù)印尼通信信息技術部數(shù)據(jù)表示洼畅，2015年印尼電商市場規(guī)模為180億美金，預計2020年將達到1300億美金棚赔，平均每年50%的增長率帝簇。印尼被認為是繼中國和印度后的第三大電商市場。
印尼市場就像中國的“同胞妹妹”靠益，在很多方面都非常相似：不健全的商業(yè)基礎設施丧肴，高速的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和移動手機滲透，類似的市場結構以及日益激烈的價格競爭胧后。當然也有不同之處芋浮。根據(jù)Bain &Company的調研，印尼的線上交易占市場交易的30%壳快，目前尚無某一特定電商企業(yè)壟斷市場纸巷。
零售市場則非常碎片化，國內產(chǎn)品交易的60%都由小型貿(mào)易商主導眶痰。印尼政府希望能夠利用馬云的經(jīng)驗幫助實現(xiàn)到2020年在線賣家量能達到800萬戶瘤旨。目前，印尼電商交易量占總體交易的5%凛驮，而中國則為14%裆站。
印尼互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務提供商聯(lián)盟的一份報告指出:
印尼的電商數(shù)量達5100萬戶且2.5億人口中有40%使用網(wǎng)絡。
eMarketer網(wǎng)站表示印尼的手機市場活躍，已經(jīng)成為亞太區(qū)域僅次于中國和印度的第三大智能手機市場宏胯。
對手機和智能設備的普遍接受度與中國類似羽嫡；市場甚至跳過了電腦的普及。
Rudy Ramawy這樣告訴我肩袍，他是前印尼谷歌總經(jīng)理杭棵，現(xiàn)在則成為了一名成功的風險投資家。根據(jù)Bain &Company數(shù)據(jù)顯示：
印尼的主要城市中使用手機上網(wǎng)的占27%, 而這些城市以外的手機上網(wǎng)率則高達79%.
最后來看看消費者購買行為氛赐。印尼消費者偏向在大型商場或是集市輕松購物魂爪，并且尋求價格上比較有競爭力的產(chǎn)品。這也是為什么中國的平臺型電商在印尼運行良好的原因艰管。
面臨的挑戰(zhàn)
但發(fā)光的并非都是金子滓侍。印尼市場仍有至少以下三方面發(fā)展不完善：物流，支付和政府保護牲芋。
因電商基礎架構的建設撩笆，中國的電商發(fā)展與東南亞相比至少先進5年。中國線上線下的零售商可保證在1-3天內交貨缸浦。而印尼則還很落后夕冲。雅加達郵報2016年4月的一篇文章表示，Lazada 的平均交貨時間從2014年的8.2天縮短到了2015年的3.3天裂逐。而在付款方式上歹鱼，較多電商交易通過銀行轉賬或是貨到付現(xiàn)的形式，這嚴重制約了電商的發(fā)展卜高。最后弥姻，印尼政府仍在保護和開放政策上舉棋不定：例如，外國企業(yè)對于當?shù)仉娚塘闶燮髽I(yè)的投資仍不被允許篙悯。
中國企業(yè)的機遇
中國企業(yè)在印尼已經(jīng)有許多投資案例：京東蚁阳、百度、聯(lián)想鸽照、華為、Oppo颠悬、小米以及其他很多公司都開設了當?shù)氐霓k公室矮燎。但這只是個開始。中國企業(yè)已經(jīng)在類似的市場環(huán)境形成了很好的模式赔癌，我相信他們在印尼也一定會獲得成功诞外。“當創(chuàng)立Tokopedia的時候灾票，我決定采用類似淘寶的模式峡谊，因為它解決了與印尼電商面臨的類似問題：營造創(chuàng)業(yè)氛圍，培養(yǎng)消費者的信任以及建立產(chǎn)品渠道〖让牵” 印尼第一大電商平臺Tokopedia的中國裔印尼CEO WilliamTanuwijaya這樣對我說濒析。
而這些正形成了發(fā)展的主要機會點：
大數(shù)據(jù)，IT基礎架構啥纸， O2O号杏，網(wǎng)絡支付，智能物流及智能設備斯棒。
在O2O和智能物流方面盾致，印尼最成功的案例則是Go-Jek，非常流行的摩托車預定App荣暮。Go-Jek是亞洲獨角獸企業(yè)之一庭惜，它的投資方之一為同時也投資了京東和阿里巴巴的DST Global。它的主要服務范圍為交通穗酥、快遞护赊、食物及商品運輸。這種按需服務讓我聯(lián)想到了中國的餓了么迷扇、百度外賣和風靡全中國的各種O2O服務百揭，這些服務使中國成為了全球最大的O2O市場。因此蜓席，中國企業(yè)與印尼相比領先了3-4年器一，可以利用其技術和專利優(yōu)勢與當?shù)仄髽I(yè)合作并實現(xiàn)全球化擴張。舉例來說厨内，2014年百度投資了巴西企業(yè)Groupon祈秕，該企業(yè)采用了中國的商業(yè)模式，其市場份額在一年內從30%提高到了60%.
在社交網(wǎng)絡方面雏胃，大數(shù)據(jù)將扮演越來越重要的角色请毛，它可以通過分析用戶消費歷史向用戶精準推送產(chǎn)品廣告，這將大大提高轉換率瞭亮。而這些還是印尼企業(yè)目前所做不到的方仿。
為了爭奪市場份額，當?shù)仄髽I(yè)將不可避免地發(fā)展其電子支付方案统翩。目前在印尼還沒有被大眾接受的可靠支付系統(tǒng)仙蚜。支付方式及其復雜導致很多時候消費者拒絕進行支付。印尼企業(yè)需要建立一個可靠的厂汗、人性化的委粉、安全的支付系統(tǒng)用于支持移動設備。螞蟻金服在印度市場的成功證明了中國商業(yè)模式在中國市場外的適用性娶桦，因此印尼一定是可以達成的“小目標”贾节。
印尼政府已經(jīng)意識到了電商產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的重要性汁汗，這也是他們愿意吸收海外投資并最終開放保護政策的原因。
馬云的任命不僅僅代表印尼市場的發(fā)展機遇栗涂，更向我們傳達了一個重要信息知牌，即中國的商業(yè)模式在國內獲得成功的同時，也將很快在國際上大顯身手戴差。
(Yicai Global) Sept.26 -- During the September's G20 Summit in Hangzhou, Indonesia's Communication and Information Technology Minister Rudiantara appointed Jack Ma one of the ten advisers to develop Indonesia's nascent e-commerce sector. The job scope has not been finalized yet, but among the other things he will contribute to the development of Indonesia's e-commerce road map.
There is no shortage of critics denouncing a conflict of interests. Alibaba's Group is investing heavily in South East Asia including the May 2016 stake in Lazada. However, according to a recent study produced by Bain & Company ("Can South East Asia live up to its E-commerce potential?") none of the platforms operating in Indonesia controls more than 20 per cent and many global e-commerce players are considering opening branches in Indonesia - Amazon plans to invest US$ 600 million. Hence, the market is very competitive.
The main point here is not the conflict of interest, but the fact that Jack Ma's appointment shows that the Chinese e-commerce model has finally become a "new export product". We are now facing the development of a phenomenon that I have called East-Commerce, where in emerging markets the Chinese e-commerce model works more effectively than the Western one, and has become the benchmark.
The Indonesian e-commerce market
According to the Indonesian Information and Communications Technology Ministry the e-commerce market was valued at US$18 billion in 2015, and is expected to grow to US$130 billion in 2020, with an annual growth of 50 per cent. It is considered the next frontier after China and India.
The market looks like China's younger sister and presents mainly four similarities: an underdeveloped commerce infrastructure, a fast Internet and mobile phone penetration, a familiarity with the concept of "bazaar" and growing price disruption. But there are differences. According to the Bain & Company research, social commerce already represents 30 per cent of all online transactions, and none of the e-commerce platforms controls the market.
As for the retail market, it is very fragment and small business owners account for around 60 per cent of gross domestic product. Indonesia's plan is to use Jack Ma's experience to allow 8 million Indonesian sellers to trade online by 2020. E-commerce currently represents less than 5 per cent of total sales, while in China is around 14 per cent.
The Association of Internet Service Providers in Indonesia reports that there are currently 51 million digital shoppers and Internet penetration has reached 40 per cent of the 250 million population. eMarketer states that Indonesia is a very mobile market and it has already become the third-largest smartphone market in the Asia-Pacific region after China and India. "The mass adoption of mobile phones and smart devices has much in common with that of China; it is leapfrogging computers," says Rudy Ramawy, former Country Manager for Google Indonesia and now a successful venture capital investor. According to Bain & Company in top cities 27 per cent of netizens access online using a mobile phone, while outside the city the number goes up to 79 per cent.
Finally, when looking at the buying habits, Indonesian consumers are perfectly at ease shopping in hypermarkets or "bazaars" and seek very competitive prices. This is why the Chinese marketplace-style e-commerce model works very well here.
The Challenges
But it is not gold all that glitters, there are at least three main areas where Indonesia is still very underdeveloped: logistics, payments and political protectionism.
China is at least five years ahead of Southeast Asia in terms of the infrastructure necessary for online commerce. In China, most retailers and e-tailers guarantee delivery of 1-3 days. Indonesia is still lagging behind. According to a recent article on The Jakarta Post on April 2016 the average delivery time for Lazada in 2014 was 8.2 days and 3.3 days in 2015. In terms of payments, many e-commerce transactions are currently paid through either direct bank transfer or cash-on-delivery, which is greatly limiting e-commerce growth. Finally, Indonesia is still struggling to find a balance between protectionism versus open policies. For example, foreign companies are still banned to invest in local e-commerce retail businesses.
Opportunities for Chinese companies
We are already seeing Chinese investments in the nation: JD.com, Baidu. Lenovo, Huawei, Oppo, Xiaomi and many others have opened offices. But this is just the beginning. I believe that Chinese companies can do well here because their business models have been shaped around the very same issues that Indonesia is facing. "When launching Tokopedia, I decided to use the Taobao model because it solved the very same issues that Indonesia e-commerce would have to address: fostering entrepreneurship, creating trust among consumers, and giving access to products," told me William Tanuwijaya, the Chinese Indonesian Ceo of Tokopedia, Indonesia's number one e-commerce platform.
The main opportunities will be in the growing sectors of: big data, IT Infrastructures, O2O, e-payments, smart logistics and devices. When looking at O2O and smart logistics for example, one of most successful startups in the country is Go-Jek, the very popular motorbike hailing app. Go-Jek is one of the Asian Unicorns and is invested among the others by DST Global who also invested in JD.com and Alibaba. Its services include transport, courrier, food and shopping delivery. This on-demand service reminds of the Chinese Ele.ma, Baidu Wai Mai and all the other O2O services that have transformed China in the biggest O2O market in the world. In this sector, Chinese companies have an advantage of three to fours years and can use their technology and know how to successfully partner with local companies and expand internationally. For example, when Baidu invested in 2014 in the Brazilian Groupon using the same business model it has in China, the Brazilian company market share went from 30 to 60 per cent in one year.
In social commerce, big data will play an ever-growing important role to provide a personalized experience for customers by recommending products based on a real-time personalization. This will in return improve the conversion rate. Indonesian companies are still behind in this.
To scale the e-commerce market local companies will eventually have to develop e-payments solutions. Currently in Indonesia, there is no reliable e-payment system that is also in universal usage. Payments are complicated and are often being declined by customers. Indonesian companies need to create a reliable system that is supported by mobile devices, user-friendly and safe. Ant Financial has already proven in India that its Chinese model works well outside China and Indonesia will definitely be a fertile ground.
Indonesian government recognizes the importance of the development of e-industry, which is why the country will attract more foreign investments and win its internal resistance to open up.
Jack Ma's appointment is not only an opportunity to develop the Indonesian e-market, but it is a message to Chinese companies saying that the very same model that has allowed them to be successful back home can be used to become international.
更多有關中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)國際化的信息送爸，請關注：
More about the Outbound trend of Chinese Internet Company, please subscribe us:
