- 普朗克：任何一種科學(xué)真相的勝利不是通過說服反對者而成功彼乌，而更像是通過反對它的人最終掛掉器紧，然后新一代熟悉它的人逐漸長大邓尤。 "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it." - Max Planck
- 高盛下調(diào)今年SP500的EPS增長至0（圖1）—— 為什么不是負(fù)的......
- 未來大勢
- 那是最美好的時(shí)代：亞洲繼續(xù)崛起（圖2）畔况，從西方世界“搶份額”敦跌。央行救市澄干。數(shù)字生活、信息普惠柠傍。
- 那是最糟糕的時(shí)代：經(jīng)濟(jì)脫鉤麸俘，自動(dòng)化替代人（知識(shí)型工作者也無法幸免），不均增大惧笛，通脹（體現(xiàn)在各種資產(chǎn)類型上从媚，不單是CPI），民粹和反全球化思潮涌動(dòng)患整，美國拉西方打科技封鎖牌拜效，老齡化，央行失靈各谚。數(shù)字鴻溝紧憾。
- 經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)只會(huì)是上述的表象。
- 面對有乘數(shù)性質(zhì)=>長尾效應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)昌渤，個(gè)人層面上還是應(yīng)該保持謹(jǐn)慎赴穗、ultra保守（圖3）。對自己負(fù)責(zé)，也是對社會(huì)負(fù)責(zé)般眉。疫情了赵、投資，一個(gè)道理煤篙。
- Markets are crazy. Headlines are stupid. Stocks are businesses.
- Jack Ma退休退得太是時(shí)候了≌謇溃現(xiàn)在整天忙著捐口罩。
- 疫情帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響各階段描述辑奈，長期影響才是最嚇人的（圖4-5）苛茂。
- 狄更斯《雙城記》開頭原文：
那是最美好的時(shí)代，那是最糟糕的時(shí)代鸠窗；那是智慧的年頭妓羊，那是愚昧的年頭；那是信仰的時(shí)期稍计，那是懷疑的時(shí)期躁绸；那是光明的季節(jié)，那是黑暗的季節(jié)臣嚣；那是希望的春天净刮，那是失望的冬天；我們?nèi)荚谥北继焯霉柙颍覀內(nèi)荚谥北枷喾吹姆较?—— 簡而言之淹父，那時(shí)跟現(xiàn)在非常相象，某些最喧囂的權(quán)威堅(jiān)持要用形容詞的最高級來形容它怎虫。說它好暑认，是最高級的；說它不好大审，也是最高級的蘸际。
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
1
2
3
4
5
