【翻譯劃線(xiàn)段落】
Dollars will find buyers hard to find in 2017
With the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and President Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank seemingly unable to escape his addiction to quantitative easing policy, many investors are questioning who wants to buy the euro. The answer is simple. The whole world is eager to buy the euro. The problem in 2017 is more likely to be finding anyone who wants to buy the US dollar.
隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的加息利率一直上升瞬测,一直上升的利率提茁,加上而(黃色是補(bǔ)充的)歐洲中央銀行行長(zhǎng)馬里奧?德拉吉(Mario Draghi)看來(lái)似乎不能擺脫(放棄)對(duì)量化寬松政策的(追逐)熱衷,許多投資者開(kāi)始質(zhì)疑還會(huì)有誰(shuí)去買(mǎi)還想買(mǎi)歐元躬窜。答案很簡(jiǎn)單,全世界的人都想要渴望買(mǎi)歐元絮供。2017年的更可能存在的問(wèn)題是,在于是否還有人去誰(shuí)還會(huì)想買(mǎi)美元贸弥。
The Middle East is a good example of a region of avid euro buyers. Even with the recent rally in the oil price, most Middle Eastern countries are expected to run sizeable fiscal deficits. The IMF expects Saudi Arabia to run a fiscal deficit of almost 10 per cent of GDP next year. To fund their budget deficits, the Gulf countries are selling central bank reserves and pools of assets held by their sovereign wealth funds.中東地區(qū)就是熱衷購(gòu)買(mǎi)歐元的一個(gè)佳例地區(qū)瓢省,盡管與最近油價(jià)回升弄息,恢復(fù)一樣,預(yù)計(jì)多數(shù)中東國(guó)家仍然面臨無(wú)法填補(bǔ)依然期望擺脫數(shù)額巨大的財(cái)政赤字勤婚。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)希望估計(jì)沙特阿拉伯國(guó)家明年能夠減少其財(cái)政赤字將占GDP的近10%的財(cái)政赤字摹量。為了解決/填補(bǔ)/縮小財(cái)政赤字(籌集財(cái)政預(yù)算所需資金),海灣國(guó)家正在開(kāi)始出售中央銀行儲(chǔ)備金(儲(chǔ)備金不能賣(mài))央行外匯儲(chǔ)備以及主權(quán)財(cái)富基金持有的大量資產(chǎn)資金池馒胆。Imagine Saudi Arabia sells US Treasuries, and uses the dollars it receives to pay its civil servants. Then imagine that a Saudi Arabian civil servant takes their pay and uses the money to buy a BMW car in euros. What is happening? Saudi Arabia is selling dollars and buying euros. It does not matter that there is an asset on one side of the transaction and a BMW on the other side of the transaction — the foreign exchange market implication is the same whether it is Bunds or BMWs that are bought.
設(shè)想一下缨称,如果沙特人出售美國(guó)國(guó)債,把換來(lái)的美元用于支付國(guó)內(nèi)政府公務(wù)員工資祝迂。然后睦尽,這個(gè)沙特的政府人員拿著這些錢(qián)兌換成歐元去購(gòu)買(mǎi)一輛寶馬汽車(chē),將會(huì)發(fā)生什么事情呢型雳?沙特人賣(mài)出美元然后買(mǎi)進(jìn)歐元当凡,交易的一方面它是一種資產(chǎn),另一方面是一輛寶馬汽車(chē)纠俭,這些都無(wú)所謂無(wú)關(guān)緊要沿量,因?yàn)椴徽撍莻只蚴琴?gòu)買(mǎi)的寶馬車(chē),在外匯市場(chǎng)上來(lái)說(shuō)效果是一樣的一樣的影響冤荆。
If the Middle East buys assets, they like their assets to be made in America (central banks buy roughly twice as many US assets as other assets). If the Middle East buys products and services, they like their products and services to be made in Europe (the Middle East buys twice as much from Europe as from the US). Thus if the Middle East is selling assets to buy goods, it sells dollars to buy euros.
如果中東人購(gòu)買(mǎi)資產(chǎn)朴则,他們希望這些資產(chǎn)是來(lái)自于美國(guó)的(因?yàn)闅W洲央行的購(gòu)入價(jià)格大概是是美國(guó)和其他資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的兩倍),如果中東人購(gòu)買(mǎi)產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)钓简,他們希望這些是歐洲制造的(中東購(gòu)買(mǎi)的產(chǎn)自于歐洲的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)是產(chǎn)于美國(guó)的兩倍多)佛掖,因此,如果中東人正在出售資產(chǎn)去買(mǎi)東西涌庭,他一定是在賣(mài)出美元買(mǎi)進(jìn)歐元。