商業(yè)
iPhone 滯銷(xiāo)+降價(jià)榄审，不只是“果粉”的福利
2019-01-26
今日導(dǎo)讀
去年夏天砌们，蘋(píng)果公司的市值跨越了 1 萬(wàn)億美元的大關(guān)，在西方國(guó)家的上市公司中問(wèn)鼎群雄搁进。然而浪感，就在今年一月初，CEO 蒂姆·庫(kù)克宣布下調(diào)蘋(píng)果去年最后一個(gè)季度的營(yíng)收預(yù)期饼问，在市場(chǎng)上頓時(shí)掀起了軒然大波影兽，股價(jià)一度暴跌 10%。曾經(jīng)的佼佼者尚且如此莱革，智能手機(jī)行業(yè)正在面臨什么樣的變局峻堰？今天我們將帶來(lái)《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》的專(zhuān)業(yè)解讀。
帶著問(wèn)題聽(tīng)講解
Q1: 短語(yǔ) bank on 來(lái)自 bank 的哪一種意思盅视？
Q2: 把智能手機(jī)作為“發(fā)展工具”的原因有哪些捐名？
Q3: 繼智能手機(jī)之后，你認(rèn)為下一項(xiàng)革命性的技術(shù)將會(huì)是什么闹击？
新聞?wù)?br>
The maturing of the smartphone industry should be celebrated, not lamented
智能手機(jī)業(yè)的成熟化值得慶祝镶蹋，而不是抱怨
When Apple cut its revenue estimate for the last quarter of 2018 because of unexpectedly slow sales of iPhones, markets convulsed.
在蘋(píng)果公司因?yàn)?iPhone 銷(xiāo)量低于預(yù)期，削減了 2018 年最后一個(gè)季度的營(yíng)收預(yù)期之后赏半，各大股市發(fā)生了劇烈的震蕩贺归。
Analysts reckon that the number of smartphones sold in 2018 will be slightly lower than in 2017, the industry’s first ever annual decline. All this is terrible news for investors who had banked on continued growth. But step back and look at the bigger picture. That smartphone sales have peaked, and seem to be levelling off at around 1.4bn units a year, is good news for humanity.
據(jù)分析師推算，2018 年智能手機(jī)的銷(xiāo)售量將會(huì)略低于 2017 年——這將是該行業(yè)首次出現(xiàn)年度銷(xiāo)量的下滑除破。對(duì)于那些曾指望行業(yè)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的投資者來(lái)說(shuō)牧氮，這一切都是糟糕的消息。但我們不妨退一步瑰枫，著眼于一個(gè)更大的格局踱葛。智能手機(jī)銷(xiāo)量觸頂丹莲，并顯示出穩(wěn)定在一年 14 億臺(tái)左右的趨勢(shì)，對(duì)于全人類(lèi)來(lái)說(shuō)是一件好事尸诽。
People have voted with their wallets to make the smartphone the most successful consumer product in history: nearly 4bn of the 5.5bn adults on the planet now have one. And no wonder. They connect billions of people to the internet’s plethora of information and services. Phones make markets more efficient, compensate for poor infrastructure in developing countries and boost growth. They might be the most effective tool of development in existence.
人們通過(guò)“用錢(qián)包投票”甥材，已經(jīng)將智能手機(jī)推上了史上最成功的消費(fèi)產(chǎn)品的地位——全球 55 億成年人中，將近 40 億人目前都擁有一臺(tái)性含。這也不奇怪洲赵。智能手機(jī)讓數(shù)十億人連接到了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)海量的信息和服務(wù)。手機(jī)提升了市場(chǎng)的效率商蕴，彌補(bǔ)了發(fā)展中國(guó)家落后的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的不足叠萍，并促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。它們可能是當(dāng)今最有效的發(fā)展工具绪商。
The slowdown does not reflect disenchantment; quite the contrary. It is the result of market saturation. After a decade of rapid adoption, there is much less scope to sell handsets to first-time buyers as so few of them are left. That hits Apple the hardest because, despite a relatively small market share (13% of smartphone users), it captures almost all of the industry’s profits.
銷(xiāo)量下滑體現(xiàn)的并不是消費(fèi)者熱情的退卻苛谷。恰恰相反，它是市場(chǎng)飽和的結(jié)果格郁。在持續(xù)了 10 年的快速普及之后腹殿，現(xiàn)在首次購(gòu)買(mǎi)手機(jī)的人所剩無(wú)幾，市場(chǎng)空間已經(jīng)極大縮水例书。這對(duì)于蘋(píng)果的打擊是最沉重的锣尉，因?yàn)樗m然市場(chǎng)份額相對(duì)較小（只占所有智能機(jī)用戶(hù)的 13%）决采，卻賺走了行業(yè)里幾乎全部的利潤(rùn)自沧。
But Apple’s pain is humanity’s gain. The recent slowing of smartphone sales is bad news for the industry, obviously. But for the rest of humanity it is a welcome sign that a transformative technology has become almost universal.
但蘋(píng)果的損失，卻是人類(lèi)的收獲织狐。近年來(lái)智能手機(jī)銷(xiāo)量的下降暂幼，對(duì)于這個(gè)行業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)顯然是壞消息。但對(duì)于行業(yè)以外的大多數(shù)人來(lái)說(shuō)移迫，這卻是一個(gè)好兆頭旺嬉，象征這項(xiàng)革命性的技術(shù)即將惠及四海。
—————? 文章來(lái)源 / 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人
重點(diǎn)詞匯
convulse/k?n?v?ls/
v. 抽搐厨埋；劇烈震蕩
e.g.
例句：The patient began to convulse.
例句：Many stock markets convulsed.
bank on sth.
指望邪媳，依賴(lài)某事
e.g.
例句：I bank with the Bank of China. (v., n.)
peak/pi?k/
v. 達(dá)到頂峰
e.g.
例句：Flu activity often peaks in February.
level off/out
進(jìn)入水平飛行；進(jìn)入穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)
vote with one’s wallet
通過(guò)消費(fèi)行為表明偏好
e.g.
搭配短語(yǔ)：vote with one’s feet
plethora/?pleθ?r?/
n. 極多荡陷，海量雨效；過(guò)多
e.g.
例句：Video websites today boast a plethora of content.
compensate/?kɑ?mpense?t/
v. 補(bǔ)償；彌補(bǔ)
e.g.
例句：His enthusiasm compensates for his lack of skill.
disenchantment/?d?s?n?t??ntm?nt/
n. 熱情的退卻废赞，失望
market saturation
市場(chǎng)飽和
e.g.
英文釋義：Market saturation is a situation that arises when the volume of a product in a marketplace has been maximized.
adoption/??dɑ?p?n/
n. 接受徽龟，接納；普及
e.g.
搭配短語(yǔ)：the adoption of mobile payment
scope/sko?p/
n. 機(jī)會(huì)
e.g.
搭配短語(yǔ)：the scope for sth. / to do sth.
handset/?h?ndset/
n. 手機(jī)
welcome/?welk?m/
adj. 受歡迎的唉地；好的据悔，不錯(cuò)的
e.g.
例句：You're welcome to ask questions of my interpretations of the article.
例句：He has made a welcome change to his attitude.
transformative/tr?ns?f??rm?t?v/
adj. 革命性的传透，變革性的
e.g.
例句：Mobile phones have transformed the world we live in. (v.)
拓展內(nèi)容
智能手機(jī)品牌的市場(chǎng)份額
據(jù)美國(guó)從事消費(fèi)電子市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu) IDC 最新提供的數(shù)據(jù)，2018 年第三季度（Q3）极颓，全球的智能手機(jī)出貨量達(dá)到 3.55 億臺(tái)朱盐，相對(duì)于 2017 年同期降幅 5.9%。這是行業(yè)連續(xù)第四個(gè)季度出現(xiàn)年同比下降的情況菠隆。
2018 Q3 的品牌市場(chǎng)份額排行如下：
1. 三星兵琳，20.3%
2. 華為，14.6%
3. 蘋(píng)果骇径，13.2%
4. 小米躯肌，9.5%
5. OPPO，8.4%
蘋(píng)果公司雖然在出貨量上排名第三破衔，但旗下產(chǎn)品高昂的價(jià)格羡榴，使得蘋(píng)果在手機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)上的營(yíng)收仍然位居市場(chǎng)第一。正如文章所說(shuō)运敢，蘋(píng)果公司面臨的最大問(wèn)題在于明顯低于預(yù)期的 iPhone 銷(xiāo)售額增長(zhǎng)：2018 年第三季度，蘋(píng)果手機(jī)的出貨量同比去年僅僅增長(zhǎng)了 0.5%忠售。
華為公司相比之下增長(zhǎng)表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁传惠，最終在該季度收獲 13.4%的同比增長(zhǎng)，出貨量保持了中國(guó)第一稻扬、世界第二的地位卦方。市場(chǎng)對(duì)于華為中端機(jī)型 P20/P20 Pro 的需求尤為強(qiáng)勁。
三星公司雖然市場(chǎng)份額排名第一泰佳，卻已長(zhǎng)期飽受競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手蠶食盼砍，出貨量同比去年下滑了 13.4%。中國(guó)各大品牌近年來(lái)已經(jīng)成為三星的強(qiáng)大挑戰(zhàn)者逝她。
參考鏈接：
IDC.com: "Smartphone Market Share by Vendor"
