無論生活中還是投資中
越來越相信一件事
好的東西就是貴
而且會越來越貴
它內在的價值決定了它的價格
比如房子
比如車
比如名師設計的家具
比如股票
藏斩。。黎烈。胡嘿。
越是對你生活質量帶來重大影響的東西
在力所能及范圍內
越應該買最貴的
這樣結局總是沒錯
稍一猶豫買了便宜的
最終往往會后悔
忘掉什么“高性價比”
那是騙人的
再說股票
一個道理
ZOOM貴嗎？貴停做！
DDOG晤愧，CRWD。蛉腌。官份。貴嗎？貴烙丛！
茅臺貴嗎舅巷？貴
在你咂舌遠離它們的時候
它們默默地變得更貴
貴給你看的那種貴
不是要盲目追高這些股票
也不是說這些股票不會跌
相反，它們跌起來很嚇人
但是但是河咽，它們都會漲回來
而且比便宜股票漲回來的要快得多钠右！
一個市場上
有幾千只股票
而這些股票的收入、利潤忘蟹、現(xiàn)金流飒房、客戶保有率、增長率媚值。狠毯。。
都是最優(yōu)秀的
那憑什么它們就得便宜呢杂腰？
它們貴的有道理
很簡單
“物以稀為貴”
一名優(yōu)異的投資人
就是要眾里尋她千百度
把這樣的股票找出來
適當?shù)臅r候買進去
最關鍵的是
敢于重倉垃你，重倉
然后
持有，持有
直到
1）業(yè)績持續(xù)變差
2）故事改變
3）有了更好的標的喂很，賣出它們換現(xiàn)金
這個世界
如果說有真理
那就是
強者恒強
貴者恒貴
信者得永生
If you listen to the conventional wisdom of the investing industry you won't make money. You WILL revert to the mean.
We invest here in companies, not systems. If you want to invest in systems have at it. One thing learned is that the low-price on-sale growth stocks all faltered, all of them, and have never come back. PURE is one that is an enigma as its business never actually faltered but improved but yet, its multiple has contracted and contracted and remains that way.
On the other hand, the stocks that the market has chosen as the highest quality have stayed expensive and over-priced … THESE COMPANIES DESTROY THE MARKET AND MAKE THE RULES OF THE VALUE INVESTORS THAT ALL THINGS RETURN TO THE MEAN IRRELEVANT. Yes, IRRELEVANT.
This is not "things are different now," this is how it has always been. Superior disruptive companies have always been expensive and they have always killed the market. That is what we attempt to identify and hold.
If instead you want to buy the market, or a general segment of the market, say SaaS, then you also have to hold the worst SaaS as well as the best. If chips then you also have to hold all the chips, etc. THAT IS NOT WHAT WE DO HERE. Well most of us, I am sure there are some who do. And nothing wrong with it. But that is not what most of us do here. And that is not what our conversations here are about.
What we do here is try to identify and invest in the leading hyper-growth disruptive businesses in the world. Through crowd-sourcing we do this systematically. And this is contrarian investing because 90%+ of the world calls us crazy for doing so. These market "darlings" that are extremely "overvalued" that will simply crash some day. "Enjoy the party while it lasts!". We are enjoying the party.
If, however, you never want to find and invest in these, or the next generation of such companies, then you need to understand that for all rules there are exceptions. A very small number of all stocks create most of all the market increases. If you want to buy the market you will have mediocre returns. If you want to buy the premium businesses of the day...well use your own judgment.
Everyone, EVERYONE will take their lumps and have to lose sometimes. However, if you go into anything only responding to fear, conventional wisdom, and that everyone reverts to the mean then why even try. Settle for mediocre. We have proven that we are not mediocre here. We are the top 1% of all investors. We do not revert to the mean, never have, and we are not stuck buying the market (thus ensuring mediocrity), and we are not stuck investing in systems.
We invest in the best growth businesses in the world. A select few. And contrary to the pompous certainty of studies that show we are all idiots, the unequivocal evidence is that… we are not!
So no, things are not "different this time," things are actually the same. If you want mediocre returns simply scare yourself into acting as if you are mediocre by investing in the mediocre or the market or a system.
Are we just lucky and a fluke? That’s what the 90% of everyone, who try to pull you back in the pack, says because you are doing better than they are? Make your own call.
Of course we understand risks. We are not daredevils! But statistics...put them into context, and then explain if those statistics are so valuable, then what is with all these outliers?
Silence. You will never hear an answer from the naysayers to explain them other than "luck".
