主要的思維方式:
發(fā)現(xiàn)一個和世人觀念相左的事實坑傅,并試圖解釋攀痊。模型簡單桐腌。結(jié)果佐證了金融系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展和FG相互促進(jìn)的功用,并預(yù)測了今后FG的趨勢苟径。
FG symbol: international trade/foreign exchange reserves/SWF
but, the stylized fact is : global trade and global cross-border holdings of financial instruments that are accounted for by the advanced economies
發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體FG的原因:capital account liberalization, financial deregulation, and falling communications costs案站,financial innovation,SPV棘街,the creation of the euro(substantial reduction in home bias and increased financial trade within the euro area)
之后文章做了文獻(xiàn)綜述蟆盐,闡述了接下來要回歸的幾個變量跟FG的關(guān)系:(a) trade openness; (b) domestic financial development; (c) economic development; (d) country size; (e) capital account restrictions; (f) EU integration; and (g) financial centers
回歸模型和結(jié)果:
結(jié)論:a strong complementarity between domestic financial development and external holdings, rather than substitutability between the two.?
預(yù)測:FG depends on depends on the deepening of domestic financial systems, overall economic development, as well as the pace of trade integration. 發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體今后的FG特征仍舊不一樣。過度宣傳金融風(fēng)險而壓抑金融業(yè)遭殉,是不利于長期發(fā)展的石挂。