The Economist 經(jīng)濟學(xué)人精讀 [31]

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一個認真學(xué)習(xí)英語的美少女??

The American economy

Can the Trump boom last?特朗普繁榮會持久么赐纱？

#Eva??說#

特朗普繁榮能持久么？首先琴昆，肯定了特朗普繁榮。這是他的實力馆揉，但也是他的好運氣业舍。特朗普執(zhí)政以來，不僅僅是美國升酣，全世界的經(jīng)濟擴張也已持續(xù)了一年舷暮，只不過被他趕上了。問題是噩茄，會持久么下面？美國商業(yè)周期已經(jīng)進入成熟期，影響是雙方面的绩聘。風險在于沥割，就業(yè)市場幾乎達到瓶頸，不合時宜的減稅政策凿菩，美聯(lián)儲緊縮政策的危機等机杜。優(yōu)勢在于，促進投資衅谷，進而有助于提升生產(chǎn)力等椒拗。總的來說获黔，前景還是樂觀的蚀苛。

#以上，個人總結(jié)和理解肢执，歡迎批評指正枉阵，歡迎留言討論#

#有輸出才有進步#

再多說幾句??：

寫完這篇Eva快要吐血了，前后差不多編輯了5個多小時(這并不是我的初衷??)预茄，再加上對國際政治經(jīng)濟一知半解(怪我??)兴溜，再加上對排版的處女座要求(我是一個偽獅子??)侦厚，再加上今天網(wǎng)速異常的慢(The Internet service was movingat a snail's paceall night??.at a snail's pace今天的文章中有運用，小編在此現(xiàn)學(xué)現(xiàn)賣)拙徽，編輯完成后感覺都要飄飄然了刨沦。#此處應(yīng)該有但是# 但是，如果你看完文章膘怕，感覺有所收獲想诅，小編需要你們的鼓勵????（歡迎分享轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)點贊，謝謝大家??）

America’s president is not the architect of the economy’s strength[美國總統(tǒng)并不是經(jīng)濟實力的設(shè)計師]. But in the short term things will go his way[但在短期內(nèi)岛心，會按照他的方式發(fā)展]

There is often more fakerythantruth in a tweet from President Donald Trump[特朗普推特里的內(nèi)容通常來講假事比真事多][好巧不巧昨天摘自NYT【每日一讀】那篇推送来破，就指責了特朗普轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)信息不真實的視頻，有興趣請戳：【每日一讀】NYT | The real stories behind 3 videos Trump shared].But on one subject he isbroadly[大體上的]right[但是忘古，在一個問題上徘禁，他大體上是正確的].America’s economyis in good shape[整裝待發(fā)][美國經(jīng)濟形勢良好].Business confidence is high[商業(yè)信心高].Jobs are plentiful[工作崗位充足].Last month non-farm companies added 228,000 workers to their payrolls[上個月，非農(nóng)企業(yè)的在職人員工資表中增加了22.8萬名員工].The unemployment rate is 4.1%, the lowest figure for more than a decade[失業(yè)率為4.1%髓堪，是十多年來的最低點]. The availability of jobs is drawing more of the working-age population into the labour force[充足的工作機會吸引了更多的適齡工作人口進入勞動市場].Wages are growingin real terms[真實地]with some of the biggest gains going to low-paid workers[工資實實在在的增長送朱，其中最大的增長是低收入工人的工資].

Mr Trump over-eggs things, of course[當然，特朗普做的也有點過頭]. He claims each good jobs report and each new peak in the S&P 500 as his own achievement[他將每一個優(yōu)秀的工作報告和每一個S&P500的新高都歸結(jié)為他自己的成就][標準普爾500（Standard & Poor's 500干旁，S&P 500）簡稱標普500或史坦普500驶沼，是一個由1957年起記錄美國股市的平均記錄，觀察范圍達美國的500家上市公司]. In fact, he was lucky in his inheritance[事實上争群，他是一個幸運的繼承人]. The market has risen by 25% since his election, but is up by 195% since 2009[自他上位之后回怜，市場已經(jīng)上漲了25%，但是自2009年后换薄，已經(jīng)上漲了195%]. The unemployment rate fell from a peak of 10% to 4.7%under Barack Obama and then to 4.1% on Mr Trump’s watch[奧巴馬執(zhí)政時鹉戚，失業(yè)率從10%的最高點下降到了4.7%，在特朗普執(zhí)政后专控，失業(yè)率繼續(xù)下降到了4.1%]. His administration says that a mix ofderegulation[多指經(jīng)濟管制放松]and corporate-tax cuts will spur sustained GDP growth of3%, well above the 2% average of recent years[特朗普政府認為，經(jīng)濟管制放松和企業(yè)稅的減少將共同刺激GDP持續(xù)增長3%遏餐，比近年2%的平均水平高出很多]. As the economy approaches full employment, an astonishing pickup in productivity would be needed to accomplish that[隨著經(jīng)濟接近充分就業(yè)伦腐，如果要實現(xiàn)這樣的經(jīng)濟目標，需要大幅度的提升生產(chǎn)效率][Full employment充分就業(yè)失都，也稱作完全就業(yè)柏蘑，是經(jīng)濟學(xué)中的一個假設(shè)，指的是除了正常的暫時不就業(yè)（比如工作轉(zhuǎn)換等）粹庞，所有的人都找到合適的職務(wù)咳焚，沒有浪費現(xiàn)象。在充分就業(yè)情況下庞溜，仍然會存在摩擦性失業(yè)和結(jié)構(gòu)性失業(yè)革半。充分就業(yè)與一定的失業(yè)率并存].

But Trump-bashers overstate their case, too[特朗普反對者也在夸大其詞].Theydismiss[摒棄]the optimism of consumers and bossesassentiment[情緒碑定，看法，觀點], notsubstance[事實依據(jù)][他們將顧客和老板們的樂觀歸為情緒又官，而非事實依據(jù)].They warn that the stockmarket is dangerously over-valued[他們發(fā)出警告延刘，認為股票市場被危險的高估了] and that America’sexpansion, which is in its 102nd month, must soonfalter[衰弱，萎縮][以及六敬，美國經(jīng)濟擴張已經(jīng)102個月了碘赖，將很快衰弱].Yet the economy is not in immediate danger[但是，經(jīng)濟不會馬上陷入危機]. And the maturity of the business cyclecuts both ways[利弊互見][商業(yè)周期的成熟是把雙刃劍].It makes a nonsense of Mr Trump’s claims to be the author of American economicsuccess[這把雙刃劍使得特朗普宣稱是美國經(jīng)濟成功的書寫者是沒有意義的].But the economy is also capable of some welcome surprises[但是外构，也使得經(jīng)濟增長還可以成為令人愉悅的驚喜].

Long in the tooth

America is not the only economy doing well[不止是美國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展不錯]. For about a year, asynchronized[同時發(fā)生的]global expansion, taking in Europe, Asia and the Americas, has been under way[歐洲普泡，亞洲和美洲的全球經(jīng)濟同步擴張已經(jīng)進行了將近一年].GDP growth in the euro zone, a region until recentlysynonymous with[等同的]economic misery, is around 2.5%, despite slower population growth than America’s[盡管，在最近幾乎與經(jīng)濟受災(zāi)區(qū)等同的歐元區(qū)审编，人口增長較美國慢撼班，但是其GDP的增長為2.5%]. But America stands out because of where it is in thecycle[但是，美國能夠凸顯出來是因為其所處的商業(yè)周期].If it continues in 2018, this expansion will become the country’s second-longest ever[如果經(jīng)濟擴張持續(xù)到2018年割笙，將成為美國歷史上第二長時間的擴張].

True, there areperils[風險][的確权烧，風險是存在的]. As the business cycle matures[隨著商業(yè)周期的成熟], there is more chance that the economy will overheat[經(jīng)濟過熱的可能性越大], because of bottlenecks in the jobs market[因為就業(yè)市場已經(jīng)達到瓶頸]; or that the central bank over-tightens in order to prevent things from running too hot[或者中央銀行為防止經(jīng)濟過熱而采取過度緊縮政策]. The longer the economy keeps growing,moreover, the more scope there is for financial imbalances, such as excess debt orfrothy[有泡沫的]asset prices, to build up[除此之外，經(jīng)濟增長持續(xù)時間越長伤溉，財政不平衡的范圍越大般码，例如，超額負債或是資產(chǎn)價格泡沫]. Some warning signals are flashing[有些危險信號已經(jīng)亮起]. The gap between long-term and short-term interest rates has narrowed, as it tends to before recessions[長期利率和短期利率的差距已經(jīng)縮小了乱顾，正如經(jīng)濟蕭條前的趨勢一樣].

Yet the evidence for overheating is thin[但是板祝，經(jīng)濟過熱的證據(jù)還不足]. Inflation has trended lower this year[通過膨脹今年有走低的趨勢]. Wage growth haspicked up[增長] a little, thankfully, but shows few signs of accelerating[謝天謝地，工資增長已經(jīng)有所提升走净，但是還沒有充足的跡象表明會加速增長]. Pay would have to increase byquite a lot morebefore rising inflation is a real worry[工資本應(yīng)在通脹上漲成為真正的擔憂之前增加的更多]. The proposed tax cuts are paid for by bigger budgetdeficits[提議的減稅政策要為引起更大的財政赤字買單], a fiscal stimulus that isill-timed[不合時宜的]given the business cycle[對于現(xiàn)在所處的商業(yè)周期券时，是一個不合時宜的財政刺激]. But the tax cuts favour companies (whichin aggregate[總的來說]are generating bumper profits) or rich individuals (who save more of their income)[但是，減稅政策對公司（總的來說產(chǎn)生更多的收益）或有錢人（可以從收益中攢更多的錢）有利]. That means therippleeffects[連鎖反應(yīng)]from the stimulus are likely to be small[意味著財政刺激帶來的連鎖反應(yīng)很可能較小].

The risk that the Federal Reserve tightens too much isaggravated[更加嚴重]by a change in the make-up of its rate-setting committee[美聯(lián)儲過度緊縮的風險因其利率委員會成員組成的改變而加劇], which willtake on[承擔]a morehawkish tinge[鷹派色彩][一個廣泛用于政治上的名詞伏伯，用以形容主張采取強勢外交手段或積極軍事擴張的人士橘洞、團體或勢力。另一解釋為以強硬態(tài)度或手段維護國家主義民族主義利益的個人说搅、團體或勢力炸枣。鷹派的反義詞為“鴿派”]from next year[美聯(lián)儲將在明年承擔更多的鷹派色彩]. Indeed,nothingMrTrump doesis likely tohave a bigger effect on the economythanhis choices to fill Fedvacancies[事實上，特朗普除了填補了美聯(lián)儲的空缺職位外弄唧，其他的作為對經(jīng)濟的更大的影響幾乎沒有]. But the tightening so far—the Fed raised rates by another quarter of a percentage point this week, to a range of 1.25-1.5%—hasbeen appropriate[美聯(lián)儲這周將利率又上調(diào)了四分之一個百分點适肠，但是，到目前為止緊縮政策是合理的]. As for financial imbalances, pockets of excessive leverage exist[至于財政失衡候引，存在過度杠桿化問題]. But the stockmarket has reached new highs as real interest rates havefallen[但是股票市場已經(jīng)到達新高侯养，而實際利率下降]: yields have dropped across all asset classes, from property in big cities to junk bonds[所有的資產(chǎn)階級的收益都下跌，從大城市資產(chǎn)到垃圾債券（價格低但風險大的債券）]. Asset prices may be high, but there is a logic to their ascent[資產(chǎn)價格可能會高澄干，但有高的理由].

Still has bite 影響依舊

A mature cycle also has pluses[成熟的周期也有優(yōu)勢].Investment is one[投資是其中一個]. A global upswing in fixed capital spending is alreadyintrain[已經(jīng)形成], led by America but notconfinedto[僅限于]it[由美國主導(dǎo)逛揩，但不限于美國的全球固定資產(chǎn)支出上漲已經(jīng)形成]. It is fuelled inpart bya drop in uncertainty about the global economy[全球經(jīng)濟不確定性的降低柠傍，一定程度上促進了固定資產(chǎn)支出的上漲]. Businesses that havebeen reluctant tomake long-term bets whenone orother[不管哪一個]of the engines of the world economy has beensputtering[噼啪的響][當不管哪一個世界經(jīng)濟的引擎噼啪直響時，那些不愿意壓長期堵住的企業(yè)想在更愿意將錢運作起來] are now more willing toput their money to work[讓錢工作息尺，將錢運作起來携兵，很形象的表達]. Investment has also followed a surge in profits, reflecting stronger GDP growth, as it tends to[正如GDP趨勢所向，投資也跟隨著收益的增長反映出了GDP更強的增長]. As workers become scarcer in America’s tightening labour market, firms have a greater incentive to automate[由于工人在美國緊鎖的勞動力市場更加缺乏搂誉，企業(yè)有更大的動力去實現(xiàn)自動化].

A second boon of a maturing cycle is higher productivity, which has risenat a snail’s pacein all countries since the global financial crisis[成熟周期的第二個優(yōu)勢是更高的生產(chǎn)力徐紧，自全球金融危機后]，所有國家生產(chǎn)力以蝸牛的速度提升]. More capital spending by businesses will help[企業(yè)更多的資產(chǎn)支出對生產(chǎn)力提升有幫助]. And in America, in particular, firmsare under pressure toreorganise their businesses tomeetexpandingdemand[尤其在美國炭懊，企業(yè)為了達到更大需求的要求并级，面臨著重組企業(yè)的壓力], because low unemployment makes it harder to findadditional workers[因為低失業(yè)率的市場更難找到額外的工人]. America is not about to return to pre-2005 rates of productivity growth, whatever Mr Trump tweets[不論特朗普的推特說什么，美國將不會回到2005年之前的生產(chǎn)力增長率]. But there aretentative[試探性的]signs that the rate is starting topick upfrom itsdismal[悲傷絕望的], post-crisisslump[蕭條][但是侮腹，有隱約的跡象表明增長率正在從危機后絕望的蕭條中回升].

All expansions eventually come to an end[所有的擴張最終都會結(jié)束].Even if America does notinflict[遭受]a recession on itself—through ill-judged trade policies, say—aglobal shockcould do the job[即使美國自己不會遭受比如說錯誤貿(mào)易政策判斷引起的蕭條嘲碧，全球經(jīng)濟沖擊也會讓其衰退]. When that time comes, America’s policymakers will end up regretting how government revenues weresquandered[揮霍]on a badly designed tax cut[到那時，美國決策者終將后悔政府怎能把收益揮霍在糟糕的減稅政策上]. The deficits that result will make it politically harder for Congress to agree on a fiscal stimulus tocombat[制止]the next downturn[這么做帶來的赤字將使國會更加難以在政治層面上父阻，對制止下一次衰退的財政刺激政策達成一致]. Interest rates will in all likelihood peak at much lower levels than in the past[利率將極大可能在比過去低很多的情況下達到高峰], limiting the scope for bigcuts[公共開支削減]to fight a recession[限制大量公共開支削減的范圍以應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟衰退]. In this, theworrywarts[杞人憂天的人]are entirely correct[在這件事上愈涩，杞人憂天的人是完全正確的].

But the immediate outlook is sunny[眼前的前景是樂觀的].The global upswing is still young, and has momentum[全球經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇依然有活力，有勢頭]. Mr Trump’s policies have lifted the spirits of business leaders, who already had reason to be confident[特朗普的政策鼓舞了商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖的士氣加矛，讓他們有理由有信心].Galling[使人惱怒的]though it must be to the president’s critics, America’s economy is well placed for 2018[盡管這讓挑剔總統(tǒng)的人很惱怒履婉，但美國2018年的經(jīng)濟準備就緒].

2017/12/20?? 1065 words