CHECKLISTS

Helpful for achieving goals, making choices, solving problems,evaluating what is likely to be

true or false etc.

如下準則有助于達成目標，做出選擇弊知、解決問題、判別真?zhèn)巍?/b>

Use notions

- Use the big ideas that underlie reality

- Understand what something really means

- Simplify

- Use rules and filters

- Know what I want to achieve

- Find and evaluate alternatives

- Understand consequences and their consequences on the whole

- Quantify

- Search for and base things on evidence

- Think things through backward

- Remember that big effects come from large combinations of factors

- Evaluate the consequences ifI'm wrong

要利用確定的概念或某個想法

使用有事實做依托的大想法

明白事情的真正意義

簡化

利用規(guī)則并且學會篩選

知道我要達成的目標

尋找并且考量替代方案

了解各種后續(xù)情況以及整體結(jié)果

定量

搜尋各種根據(jù)，并在此基礎上行事

能夠反向思考

記住合瓢，要有大的成效，就需要諸多因素的總和

評估如果做錯了會有什么后果

What is the issue?

- What's the question? What is this really about?

- What's the essence or nub of the issue? What is then the key question?

- Relevant? Solvable? Important? Knowable? Utility - applicability?

- Do I understand what the subject is all about? In order to have an opinion on a subject I need

some relevant data and basic knowledge about the subject, otherwise just say:"I don't know".

- Is my judgment here better than others?

- What must I predict here and is it predictable?

- Is a decision needed? What happens if I don't deal with this? Is this something I can do

anything about? Should "I" do this?

- Over what period of time am I considering this issue? Where am I at present?From whose

point ofview?

- Simplify by deciding big "no-brainer questions" first and beg infrom where I am.

問題的解決

問題是什么透典？事情的實質(zhì)是什么晴楔？

事情的核心或重點在哪里顿苇？相應的主要問題是什么？

什么是相關的税弃？什么是可解決的纪岁？什么是重要的？什么是可知的则果？什么是可以適應的（Utility-applicability）幔翰？

我了解事情的全貌嗎？為了使自己對事情有想法西壮，我需要一些相關數(shù)據(jù)和基本知識儲備遗增，否則我就得承認“我不知道”。

我的判斷比其他人好嗎茸时？

我必須對什么做出預測贡定？它是可預測的嗎？

需要做出決定嗎可都？如果我不當機立斷缓待，會發(fā)生什么？為解決此事渠牲，我能做什么旋炒？“我”應該去做嗎？

我對此問題的思考花了多少時間签杈？此刻我思考到了哪一步瘫镇？處于誰的立場上？

簡化問題答姥，先解決“不需大腦思索”的大問題铣除，然后從自己的境地開始思考。

Understand what it means

- Translate words and ideas in terms I understand. Do I understand what words and statements

really mean and imply? Does it mean anything? Will it help me make useful predictions on

what is likely to happen?

- Do I understand how and why something works and happens? What is it doing? Why does

it do that? What is happening? How and why is this happening? What is the consequence of

this (observation, finding, event, experience...)?

- Definitions and implications?

理解背后的含義

把語言和各種想法翻譯成我明白的方式鹦付。我能理解所用的語言和結(jié)論的真正含義和暗示嗎尚粘？它意味著什么？它是否有助于我對未來做出有用的預測嗎敲长？

我是否了解事情發(fā)生和運轉(zhuǎn)的方式和原因郎嫁？它正在產(chǎn)生什么影響？為什么會有這樣的影響祈噪？現(xiàn)在的情況如何泽铛？怎樣及為何會發(fā)生如此情況？其結(jié)果會是什么（會有什么觀察辑鲤、發(fā)現(xiàn)盔腔、事件、體驗）？

Filters and Rules

- Use filters incl. rules and default rules -what test(s) can I make?

- Adapt to my psychological nature, abilities, advantages, and limitations

- Consider values and preferences and therefore priorities and what I want toavoid

過濾和規(guī)則

利用規(guī)則和缺省規(guī)則來篩選——我可以如何檢測铲觉？

改變規(guī)則澈蝙，以適應我的心理特征吓坚、心理承受能力撵幽、心理優(yōu)勢和心理局限。

考慮我的價值觀和偏好礁击，由此判斷事物的輕重緩急盐杂，以及希望規(guī)避的事情。

What do I specifically and measurable want to achieve and avoid and when and why?

- What future "value" do I want to achieve? Target numbers? Target effects? Time horizon?

- Assume I have already reached my target. What would this imply in numbers andeffects?

What must then have been achieved? Is it (target) reasonable? Is it reasonable if I ?reverse

this to the present?

- Do I have ways to measure to what degree my goal is being achieved? Key variables or

components of yardstick?

- If I achieve this what will happen? Do I want that to happen?

- Can I break my goal into short-term goals with deadlines?

- What is my real reason for doing this? Is it because I want to or because I have to? Have I

stated my goal from internal and external realities or am I biased now or influenced by some

psychological forces?

- Can I express my goal in a way that makes it easier to see how it is going to be achieved?

- Is this the true goal for what I want to achieve?

我具體想達成和避免的是什么哆窿，什么時候達成链烈，原因為何？

就數(shù)字而言挚躯，我想獲得什么樣的價值强衡？目標數(shù)字是什么？目標效果是什么码荔？所設定的時間范圍是什么漩勤？

假設我已經(jīng)達到了目標，那么這個目標如何反映在數(shù)字和效果上缩搅？接下來又需要達到什么越败？這個目標是否合理？如果從目標逆向回溯到現(xiàn)在硼瓣，是否可行究飞？

我是否有辦法衡量目標的完成程度？這個標準的關鍵指標是什么堂鲤？

如果我達到了目標亿傅，隨之而來的會是什么？那是我希望得到的嗎瘟栖？

我可否把大的目標分成若干有期限的短期目標葵擎？

我做此事的真正原因何在？是因為我想這樣還是因為我不得不這樣慢宗？我在闡述目標時坪蚁，是基于內(nèi)外兩方面的現(xiàn)實呢，還是受到了某些心理力量的影響镜沽？

我能否簡短地闡述我的目標敏晤，以使人更容易明白我達到此目標的方式？

這是不是我真正希望達到的結(jié)果缅茉？

What is the cause of that?

- To achieve my goal I must understand what causes my goal to be achieved

- What is the equation for goal and what evidence do I have for that?

- What don't I want to achieve? What causes non-goal and what can I do to avoid that? What

must I not do or what must I avoid?

- What variables influence the system? What are the critical forces and variables, the ones

that account for the main outcome? What is the key unknown? What is the certainty with

which I can evaluate, optimize ... the different variables?

- Which variables are dependent on other variables (or situation, environment,context,

timing, behavior) and which ones act independently of each other?

- What force causes a variable to be achieved? What produces the force(s)? Are there short?

and long-term forces? What is their relative strength? How do they combine and interact

and what are the effects? How can I get many forces to operate together in the same

direction? What lack of force would destroy the system? What produces this force? How

predictable are they? What can the forces in place rationally expect to cause?What forces

are temporary and which ones are permanent? How will the system change as the forces

that act on the variable change?

- How resistant is the system to a change in the variables and/or forces? What are the likely

wanted and unwanted short- and long-term consequences (on numbers and effects)of

changes (up/down) - scale, size or mass, strength, intensity, length, time horizon,?environment,?

participants etc. - in the variables or forces? What happens when a number?of small causes?

operate over a long time? What are the consequences if a forceacts on the

variable over a long time? Which force could change it? What is needed to create a critical

mass? What forces when added can create a critical mass? How? Will something else happen

when I change a variable or force? What must happen for a force to change? Can a change

produce other consequences (observe that I am interested in effects on thewhole system ?and?

the final outcome)? Does a change in one variable make a dramatic difference in

outcome? Will the properties also change? What are the consequences if therelation

between the variables changes? What is the change point? Barriers? Catalyst?Tipping

point? Inflection point? Break point? Limits? Is there a time lag before effects happen?

Feedback? What can speed up the cause? What are the critical points when the effects get

reversed? What can I change in the equation and what can others change? How?Who?

When? Which variables must I change to achieve goal? How can I measure the amount of

change? Degree of sensitivity if I change the assumptions? Effects on goal and path? What

will happen if I hold one variable constant? If I at the same time increase one variable and

decrease another? Net effect? If I change one variable or force at a time? What is it in the

environment that can change the situation? What other advantages and disadvantages can

I achieve if I optimize one of the variables? What must happen to cause a change in?outcome?

?Is it still a variable if I change the conditions?

- Are there exceptions to the equation and why? What conditions are?required to achieve

goal? Has my goal different cause short-term and long-term? Is the cause time-dependent?

Can I deduce the cause by observing the effects? Have I looked upon the systemfrom

different angles and viewpoints? What does the measurement of the subject depend on?

- What is the major constraint that limits the goal from being achieved?

成因何在嘴脾？

為了達到目標，我必須知道能讓我達成目標的各種成因。

通過哪些要素的組合可以達成的目標译打？我如何佐證此公式耗拓？

什么是我不希望獲得的結(jié)果？可能促使“非目標”出現(xiàn)的原因是什么奏司？我能如何規(guī)避乔询？我必須不做什么，或者必須避免什么韵洋？

整個系統(tǒng)要運轉(zhuǎn)起來竿刁，會受哪些變量的影響？這些關鍵性變量是什么搪缨？主要的未知因素何在食拜？有哪些確定的因素可以幫助我評估和優(yōu)化這些變量？

哪些變量有賴于其他變量（或情形副编、環(huán)境负甸、背景、時機痹届、行為）呻待？哪些變量是獨立于其他變量的？

什么外力才能促使某一變量出現(xiàn)短纵？這些外力來源于何處带污？是短期還是長期外力？其相對優(yōu)勢是什么香到？這些外力之間如何組合鱼冀、互動，效果會如何悠就？我如何才能讓諸多外力作用于共同的方向千绪？缺乏了哪個外力會毀掉整個系統(tǒng)？這個外力來源于何處梗脾？可預測度有多高荸型？這些外力如果出現(xiàn)，會促發(fā)什么樣的合理結(jié)果炸茧？哪些外力是暫時性的瑞妇，哪些外力是永久的？作用于變量的這些外力若發(fā)生變化梭冠，整個系統(tǒng)會發(fā)生怎樣變化辕狰？

在這些變量和外力發(fā)生變化時，系統(tǒng)抵制這些變化的慣性有多強控漠？變量和外力產(chǎn)生變化（上升或者下降）后蔓倍，可能導致哪些希望的和不希望的短期和長期結(jié)果（數(shù)字或效果）悬钳，如規(guī)模、體積偶翅、強度默勾、密度、長度聚谁、時間維度母剥、環(huán)境、參與者等垦巴？一組較小的外力如果長期發(fā)生作用媳搪，會怎樣？如果作用于變量的某一外力長期發(fā)生作用骤宣，結(jié)果會如何？什么外力能加以改變序愚？需要什么才能達到臨界質(zhì)量憔披？添加了哪些外力后能達到臨界質(zhì)量？如何發(fā)生作用爸吮？如果我改變了一個變量或者外力芬膝，會導致其他事情發(fā)生嗎？什么情況會讓一個外力發(fā)生改變形娇？這個改變會產(chǎn)生其他結(jié)果嗎（請注意我感興趣的是整個系統(tǒng)的效果和最終結(jié)果）锰霜？一個變量發(fā)生了變化，會對整體結(jié)果帶來戲劇性的改變嗎桐早？屬性是否也會隨之改變癣缅？如果變量之間的關系發(fā)生變化，結(jié)果會如何哄酝？促發(fā)改變的那個點是什么友存？障礙是什么？催化劑是什么陶衅？引爆點是什么屡立？拐點在哪里？暫停點在哪里搀军？局限是什么膨俐？有多久時滯才能等到效果發(fā)生？反饋是什么罩句？什么能令此成因加速焚刺？效果若要發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn)，臨界點在哪里的止？對這個公式檩坚，我能做什么改變，其他人能做什么改變？如何做匾委？誰來做拖叙？什么時候做？我需要改變哪些變量才能達成目標赂乐？我如何度量變化的程度薯鳍？Degree of sensitivity if I change the assumptions？對目標和路徑會產(chǎn)生什么影響挨措？如果某一變量保持不變挖滤，會如何？我在提高某一變量的同時降低另一變量呢浅役？會有怎樣的網(wǎng)絡效應斩松？如果一次只改變一個變量或者外力呢？外部環(huán)境中有什么會改變我的處境觉既？如果對其中一個變量進行優(yōu)化惧盹，會產(chǎn)生其他什么優(yōu)勢和劣勢？什么才能導致最終結(jié)果發(fā)生變化瞪讼？如果我改變了條件钧椰，變量還會成立嗎？

這一公式會否出現(xiàn)例外符欠，為什么嫡霞？需要哪些條件才能達成目標？Has my goal different cause short-term and long-term希柿？這個成因是否依賴于時間條件诊沪？通過觀察效果，我能否追溯其成因狡汉？我有否采用不同的角度和立場來審視整個系統(tǒng)娄徊？對主題的考量依賴于什么東西？

限制我達成目標的主要力量是什么盾戴？

What available alternatives do I have to achieve my goal?

- Judge alternatives in terms of goal, subjectin question, rules and filters, cause and effect,

human behavior, evidence, counter evidence, simplicity and opportunity cost ofmoney,

time, other resources, effort, understanding, risk and mental stress.

- What evidence (incl. models) do I have that these alternatives are most likely to achieve

goal?

- Are they depending on time horizon or event?

- What are the likely consequences of each action? What possible outcomes can happen?

Likelihood? How desirable is each consequence?

- Do I forego any future opportunities if I make a specific action now?

有沒有現(xiàn)成的替代方案可以幫助我達成目標寄锐？

通過目標、主體問題尖啡、規(guī)則橄仆、因果、行為衅斩、佐證盆顾、反證、資金的機會成本畏梆、時間您宪、其他資源奈懒、精力琼腔、理解力救欧、風險和精神壓力等因素，來對其他替代方案進行判斷庇楞。

我有什么依據(jù)（包括模式）來判斷這些替代方案很有可能幫我達成目標捏卓？

這些因素有賴于某些特定的時間點或者事件嗎极祸？

每一個行動可能產(chǎn)生的后果是什么？可能產(chǎn)生什么效用怠晴？可能性有多高遥金？你對每個結(jié)果的期待值有多高？

如果現(xiàn)在采取某些行動蒜田，我是否會放棄未來的一些機會稿械？

What are the consequences?

- Find out which alternative are most likely to achieve my goal by estimating their likely

consequences

- If I do this, what will happen? Why will this not happen?

- What are the likely (logical) wanted and unwanted (or unintended) consequences

(quantitative and qualitative) and consequences of consequences (immediate and over the

course of a long period) of each alternative!event (proposition) factoring in relevant variables?

- What are the different scenarios and outcomes that can happen? What is likelyto happen

short and long-term based on the evidence?

- What can help me make predictions on consequences or if something is likely to be true

or false?

- What must happen for the goal to be achieved? How likely is it that the necessary events

will happen and happen to me? What does the probabilities favor? What will happen if I

reverse the proposition?

- What are the uncertainties that can significantly influence the outcome? What unintended

consequences are there due to repeating effects, complications... ?Is the net effect positive?

Does the consequences predict anything else? What else does this mean?

- What are the consequences if this is true or false?

- Have I considered the whole system from different viewpoints? Have Iconsidered social,

financial, physical and emotional consequences? What are others likely to do?What are my

experiences of earlier behavior? What happens when others do the same?

結(jié)果是什么？

通過對結(jié)果的預估物邑，尋找最可能幫助我達成目標的替代方案溜哮。

如果我做出了一個選擇，什么將隨之發(fā)生色解，什么又不會發(fā)生？

每個替代方案（邏輯上）可能產(chǎn)生的想要的結(jié)果或者不想要（或不希望）的結(jié)果是什么（定性并定量）餐茵？結(jié)果之后的次生結(jié)果（短期內(nèi)或者長期內(nèi)產(chǎn)生的）會是什么科阎？

會產(chǎn)生什么樣不同的情形和結(jié)果？在這樣的依據(jù)下忿族，會產(chǎn)生什么長期或短期的效應锣笨？

什么可以幫助我預測事情的結(jié)果或其真?zhèn)危?/p>

為了達到目標，什么事情必須發(fā)生道批？必要事件發(fā)生以及發(fā)生在我身上的可能性分別有多高错英？如果我逆向而行，會有什么后果隆豹？

什么不確定因素會極大影響到結(jié)果椭岩？重復出現(xiàn)的效應或者復雜因素會產(chǎn)生什么不希望的結(jié)果？

錯誤的選擇和正確的選擇分別會產(chǎn)生什么后果璃赡？

我是否從不同的角度全面考慮了整個系統(tǒng)判哥？我有否考慮過其社會、財務碉考、生理和情感上的結(jié)果塌计？別人可能會怎么做？依照我的經(jīng)驗和以前的行為侯谁，我會怎么應對锌仅？如果別人也照我這樣做章钾，會產(chǎn)生什么樣的結(jié)果？

Bias

- Is there any reason for bias due to self-interest or psychological influences that may cause

misjudgment?

- Is this a biased statement or a fact? What are factual judgments and what are value?

judgments?

- How reliable is he? Is he competent enough to judge? Credentials? What is his purpose with

this? Does he have any motive to lie? How does he know that this is true?

偏見

個人興趣或者心理原因帶來的會導致我產(chǎn)生誤判的偏見热芹，有何原因可以解釋嗎贱傀？

我所做出的結(jié)論或者選擇的事實中，是否存在偏見剿吻？事實判斷和價值判斷分別是什么窍箍？ — 他有多可靠？他有足夠的能力做出判斷嗎丽旅？如何加以證明椰棘？他做此判斷的目的是什么？他有沒有撒謊的動機榄笙？他如何判斷正誤邪狞？

The hypothesis

- Based on what I want to achieve; test statement implied by goal or statement for

consequences.

- For every alternative ask: Is this alternative likely to achieve my goal(true)? For proposition

ask: Is this proposition likely to be true?

- How can I test (testability) if this is true? Can I try to prove it is false before I try to see if

it's true?

- What do I need to know if! shall test this statement? I must first find out the equation for

what causes the statement to be true so I know what is the most important Ineed to know

the future true outcome of and then search for the evidence for and against that this will

be achieved. What is the statement that should be proved?

- What is the simplest hypothesis?

假設

假設需要基于我想要達成的目標，并用此假設去檢驗我關于結(jié)果的預估茅撞。

對每個替代方案都要問：這個替代方案可能達成我的目標嗎帆卓？對每個觀點都要問：這個想法是對的嗎？

我如何檢驗某個表述的真?zhèn)蚊浊穑吭谧C實之前剑令，我能否先證偽？

要檢驗這一表述拄查，我需要知道些什么吁津？首先，我必須知道什么公式能夠讓我的表述成立堕扶，然后我才能知道碍脏，對于判斷未來的真正結(jié)果，什么才是最重要的稍算。其次典尾，我要知道能夠支撐和推翻這一表述成立的證據(jù)。哪些表述是需要論證的糊探？

最簡單的假設是什么钾埂？

Look for evidence and judge the evidence

- How likely is it that the key cause (for goal,non-goal, and proposition) will be achieved?

- When evaluating statements or true/false, look for meaning, motives, causes,consequences

and evidence for and against.

- If this were true what would the consequences then imply? Are the consequences of it not

being true illogical or unbelievable? Does it have any predictability?

- How and where can I find the representative evidence if this is true?What is given? What

are unquestionable truths? Will the test or other ways of measure give the same results when

repeated (reliable)? Can I test for consequences (verifiable)? Is the evidencebased on what

is known and have I interpreted the data correct (valid)? What evidence do Ihave? Evidence

against? What grounds do I have for accepting that evidence? Weight of evidence?What is

the quality of the evidence? How credible?is?the evidence? Dependent on time,

environment? Too small sample? Does the statement agree with the available evidence?

Does it violate any scientific laws or laws of nature?

- What representative information do I have? What is happening by observation?Can I do an

experiment to confirm my guess? Does it agree with experiment?

- What is the track record (case rate, base rate frequency, variability,average rate, degree of

randomness, my own experiences, environment, players, and other relevant factors for the

case) on what happened (worked and not) in the past? Is there any reason to believe that

this record isn't representative for what is likely to happen in the future?What can make

the future a lot different than the past? What's been permanent and what hasn't?

- How long can this continue? What is the major cause(s) now? What force(s) can make it

continue, initiate a change, or stop it and why? Is it likely?

- If I ?get evidence that is the opposite ofmy previous convictions I must ask:How does this

happen? What is going on here? What evidence do I have? What grounds do I have for

accepting the evidence?

尋找依據(jù)，判斷依據(jù)

（促發(fā)目標侧到、非目標和意見的）主要成因出現(xiàn)的可能性有多高勃教？

對判斷做出真?zhèn)卧u判時，去尋找其意義匠抗、動力故源、成因、后果和正反依據(jù)

如果判斷是正確的汞贸，那么后果將意味著什么绳军？后果會不會超乎邏輯或者不可思議印机？其中有任何可預測之處嗎？

我怎樣并且從哪里才能找到支持某一判斷的代表性證據(jù)门驾？已知的有哪些射赛？哪些東西是毋庸置疑的？若反復加以檢驗或用其他方式的考量奶是，會出現(xiàn)相同的結(jié)果嗎楣责？我能否對結(jié)果進行檢驗？這些依據(jù)都是基于已知因素嗎聂沙？我是否正確理解了各項數(shù)據(jù)秆麸？依據(jù)在哪里？反面依據(jù)呢及汉？我認可依據(jù)的理由是什么沮趣？這一依據(jù)的權重是多少？What is the quality of the evidence坷随？可信度有多高房铭？是否緊密依賴于外部環(huán)境？樣本是否太少温眉？結(jié)論跟手中的依據(jù)相符嗎缸匪？有沒有違反科學法則或自然法則？

我有什么代表性的信息类溢？對其加以觀察會出現(xiàn)發(fā)生什么豪嗽？我能夠通過實驗來證實我的猜測嗎？

對于將會發(fā)生什么（可行還是不可行）豌骏，有沒有相關的過往紀錄（案例評估、變異性隐锭、平均率窃躲、隨機程度、自身經(jīng)歷钦睡、環(huán)境蒂窒、伙伴與對手，以及其他相關的因素）荞怒？有什么理由相信這些紀錄對未來會發(fā)生的事情并不具有代表性洒琢？什么能讓未來與以往大不相同？什么是恒在的褐桌，什么不是衰抑？

這能持續(xù)多久？現(xiàn)在的主要成因是什么荧嵌？什么外力能讓其持續(xù)呛踊、能帶來改變砾淌、或者造成阻礙，為什么谭网？可能性有多高汪厨？

如果我拿到了能夠推翻我之前信念的依據(jù)，我必須自問：為什么會這樣愉择？現(xiàn)在是什么情況劫乱？我拿到的是什么樣的依據(jù)？我接受這一依據(jù)的理由是什么锥涕？

Disprove my (or others) conclusion by thinking like a prosecutor

- Consider causes for misjudgments

How can I test and prove that my idea and conclusion is wrong? What reasons arethere

why I might be wrong? Where can I find the evidence that suggest I am wrong? How

credible is my evidence? What facts and evidence disagree with my conclusion/idea?

What major assumptions have I built the case on? Are they built on reality? Are their

consequences logical? Has anyone proved that my assumptions are right? What are the

consequences if my beliefs and assumptions are wrong?

What have I ignored or overlooked? Better alternatives? Have I ignored evidence? Have I taken

into account the limitations when humans are involved? What factors are uncertain and

why? Have I just projected present trends? What have I misinterpreted? Have Iused the right

definitions? Did I consider and combined all the relevant factors? Have I used the

appropriate measure/yardstick? Did I go wrong in the measurement? Have I confused cause

and correlation? What about if my goal is shaped by what I believe is true butit isn't? Are there

random or systematic errors? What other causes can explain my results? Have I considered the

whole system and that interacting parts sometimes canvary in unexpected and unwanted

ways?

- Bias for my own ideas? Is my ego getting in the way ofmaking an intelligent decision? Will

I really beat the historical average/record? Have I looked for contrary effects?

- What do I not see? What is the significance of this? Does an inversion of the assumption

lead to a logical absurdity? Is the opposite more likely? Is there any contrary evidence? What

evidence can prove it is false (or not achieving goal)? What experimental (or experience,

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observation... ) evidence are there that it's false? More evidence infavor of that? What

causes it to be false?

- Meaning? Can I show that the consequences ofit being true are unbelievable?What is the

implied effect if! trace it out mathematically? Would the opposite of the statement be more

likely? If yes, the proposition is probably false.?

像檢察官一樣對我（或其他人）的結(jié)論提出反駁

思考會導致誤判的原因

如何檢驗和證明我的結(jié)論是錯誤的衷戈？我可能犯錯的理由是什么？從哪里可以找到證明我錯誤的依據(jù)站楚？這個依據(jù)可信嗎脱惰？有沒有什么事實和依據(jù)與我的結(jié)論/觀點不符？

我做的分析基于哪些主要假設窿春？是基于真實情況嗎拉一？假設的結(jié)果符合邏輯嗎？有人證明過我的假設是正確的嗎旧乞？如果我的想法和假設是錯誤的蔚润，結(jié)果會是什么？

我有否忽視了什么尺栖？有沒有更好的選擇嫡纠？我是否忽視了某些依據(jù)？當有人力介入時延赌，我是否考慮到了其局限性除盏？什么因素是不確定的，為什么挫以？我是否只考慮到了目前的趨勢者蠕？我有否誤解了什么？我使用了正確的定義嗎掐松？我是否綜合考慮了所有相關的因素踱侣？我采用了合適的衡量標準嗎？我有否混淆了成因和相關性大磺？如果我的目標是基于某個我認為正確但其實是錯誤的理念抡句，會如何？其中會有隨機性的或者系統(tǒng)性的錯誤嗎杠愧？對于我所得到的結(jié)果待榔，有沒有其他原因可以解釋？我有否考慮過殴蹄，整個系統(tǒng)或者某些互動環(huán)節(jié)的可能會出現(xiàn)我不希望發(fā)生的變化究抓？

我的想法是否存在偏見猾担？在做出一個極具智慧的決定時，我的自我是否過于膨脹刺下？我真的會創(chuàng)造歷史紀錄嗎绑嘹？我有否看到可能產(chǎn)生的反作用？

我沒看到的是什么橘茉？其重要之處是什么工腋？如果逆轉(zhuǎn)我的假設，會否得到極度不合邏輯的結(jié)果畅卓？這個可能性是不是更高擅腰？有沒有反例？什么依據(jù)可以證明我是錯的（或者證明我無法達成目標）翁潘？實驗（或者經(jīng)驗趁冈、觀察）得出的證據(jù)中，有哪些是錯誤的拜马？有更多支持性的證據(jù)嗎渗勘？這些錯誤是如何導致的？

意義何在俩莽？我能否向人們證明正確假設所得到的結(jié)果是不可能出現(xiàn)的旺坠？如果我用數(shù)學的方式準確描述出來，其隱含的影響是什么扮超？相反的方向是不是更有可能取刃？如果是，那么現(xiàn)在的想法就是錯誤的出刷。

What is the downside?

- How can I be hurt? What could possible gowrong? What can turn this into a mistake?

What would the consequences be?

- How often do things go wrong? Surprise factors? What can happen that will dramatically

change the outcome?

- What is the worst thing that could happen - the nightmare scenario? How likely is that?

What will I do if it does? What are the consequences if things go from bad to worse? And

what are then the consequences?

- What are the consequences if I get two or three forces acting in concert against me? Which

alternatives net effects are least worse?

- Execution risk?

- What do I least like? What am I least sure of?

- Can an advantage give me unwanted consequences? How do I lose an advantage?

- How can I structure the "system" to minimize the influence of negatives? Antidotes to what

I don't want happen? Do I have a backup plan for surprises? Can I correct it?What rules

can I install to achieve goal and avoid non-goal? Is there a built-in safety factor?

負面影響表現(xiàn)在什么地方璧疗？

我會因何受到傷害？什么可能向錯誤的方向發(fā)展馁龟？什么會讓事情走偏病毡？如果這樣，結(jié)果如何屁柏？

事情出錯的頻率如何？會否有意料之外的因素有送？什么事情發(fā)生后會極大改變整體結(jié)果淌喻？

可能發(fā)生的最壞的境況是什么？發(fā)生的可能性有多大雀摘？如果不幸發(fā)生了裸删，我該怎么做？如果事情繼續(xù)惡化阵赠，后果會是什么涯塔？這個后果的后果又會是什么肌稻？

如果我受到多種外力的阻礙，結(jié)果會如何匕荸？哪種有效效應是危害最低的爹谭？

執(zhí)行中會面臨什么風險？

我最不希望出現(xiàn)的是什么榛搔？我最不確定的是什么诺凡？

一個看上去是優(yōu)勢的因素有沒有可能讓我得到不希望的結(jié)果？我會怎樣失去某個優(yōu)勢践惑？

怎樣構(gòu)建系統(tǒng)才能將負面影響降到最低腹泌？有修正辦法嗎？發(fā)生了意想不到的事情尔觉，我有沒有備選方案凉袱？我能加以修正嗎？設定什么樣的規(guī)則可以幫助我達成目標而規(guī)避不希望的結(jié)果侦铜？有沒有內(nèi)在的安全隱患专甩？

What are the consequences if I am wrong?

What key thing am I betting on? Do I risk whatis important for me for something of?relative low

?utility for me?

What is the cost (dollars, time, mental stress etc) of being wrong weighted against the

benefit or value of being right compared to the next best available opportunity?

If I do this because I believe the consequences are in my best interest/it'strue but I turn out

wrong/it is false, what are the short- and long-term consequences (actual loss and

opportunity cost loss) for my goal and can I handle them and/or reverse them?

If I don't do this because I believe the consequences is not in my best interest/it's false but

I turn out wrong/it's true, what are the short- and long-term consequences formy goal and

can I handle them and/or reverse them?

- If I don't take a decision at all now because I don't believe it is necessary but I am wrong,

what are the short-and long-term consequences for my goal and can I handle them and/or

reverse them?

如果我錯了，后果會怎樣泵额？

我把賭注押在哪些關鍵要素上配深？我是否拿對我重要的東西去冒險，換取的有可能是對我效用相對較低的東西嫁盲？

與現(xiàn)有的次優(yōu)機會相比篓叶，我的正確決定所帶來的益處和價值是什么，錯誤決定的成本（金錢羞秤、時間缸托、精神壓力等）是多少？

我這樣做是因為我堅信其結(jié)果能最好地實現(xiàn)我的利益瘾蛋；或者我相信能符合我利益俐镐，但后來證明我錯了；或者它根本就不符合我的利益哺哼。上述三個可能性給我的目標帶來的短期和長期的后果會是什么（實際損失和機會成本）佩抹？我能否加以應對和/或還原？

我不這樣做是因為我堅信其結(jié)果不能最好地實現(xiàn)我的利益取董；或者我相信不符合我利益棍苹，但后來證明我錯了；或者它根本就符合我的利益茵汰。上述三個可能性給我的目標帶來的短期和長期的后果會是什么（實際損失和機會成本）枢里？我能否加以應對和/或還原？

如果我因為認為不必要而此刻不采取任何行動份乒，但時候證明我錯了尸折，這給我的目標帶來的短期和長期的后果是什么板惑？我能否加以應對和/或還原摘刑？

What is the value?

- What is the utility or preference of each ofthese alternatives to me? Which alternative is

most likely to achieve my goal and ultimate objective? Is it really more attractive than the

other choices I have?

- What can I use as criteria to judge my alternatives against each other?

- What do I like best if I weigh the alternatives against each other by assigning their

characteristics numerical values?

- Will it make a difference? Make an impact? How willing am I to accept certain out comes?

價值是什么湿蛔？

對我來說廓奕，每一個替代方案的實際效用和優(yōu)勢是什么搀擂？哪個方案最有利于我達到目標按脚？它是否真的比其他選擇更有吸引力溉卓？

我用什么標準來判斷替代方案之間的優(yōu)劣皮迟？

通過對每個替代方案的特點進行打分，我最看好的是哪一個桑寨？

這個選擇能不能讓我脫穎而出伏尼？能不能造成一定的影響？我是否愿意接受某種特定的結(jié)果尉尾？

What yardstick can be used to measure progress or to measure things against?

- What yardstick(s) do I use? What is the yardstick by which the decision is made?

- How can I easily measure to what degree my goal are being achieved? What indicators can

I track?

- Does the "system" give people an incentive to behave in away sothat my goal will be achieved?

Or does it work against the goal?

采用什么標桿來衡量事情的進展爆阶？

我采用了哪些標桿？用作決策依據(jù)的標桿是哪些沙咏？

我怎樣才能容易地評估我向目標推進的程度辨图？有哪些指標可供我對照？

我所構(gòu)建的系統(tǒng)能否激勵人們按照最有利于達成目標的方式去行動肢藐？或者故河，這個系統(tǒng)是否會阻礙目標的完成？

How act now?

- Can I execute? What specific action(s) do I have to do (must do) now? What do I need to

do first?

Who is going to do what, where, when, why and how?

Have I decided on where the critical points (time and effects) are?

Have I installed some kind of control stations and rules? Why is this the right rule? What

are the consequences if I don't install this rule (or change my way of doing something)?

What administrative and practical actions must I do due to the rule? How much time will

it take to follow the rule? Can I control how I follow the rule? Can I installa time-limited

rule? Where does the rules not work?

現(xiàn)在如何行動吆豹？

我可以執(zhí)行嗎鱼的？我現(xiàn)在必須開始采取的特定行動是什么？首先需要做的是什么痘煤？

誰做什么凑阶，什么時候做，在哪里做衷快，為什么做宙橱，以及如何做？

我知道決定性的點（時間和效果）在哪里嗎蘸拔？

我是否設置了一定的控制體系和規(guī)則师郑？為什么這些規(guī)則是合適的？如果我不設置這些規(guī)則（或者不改變我做事的方式）调窍，結(jié)果會如何呕乎？這個規(guī)則要求我必須采取哪些管理和實踐的舉措？要遵循這個規(guī)則陨晶，會花費多少時間？我能否決定自己如何遵循這些規(guī)則？我可以設置一個有時間限定的規(guī)則嗎先誉？這些規(guī)則在哪些地方會失效湿刽？

Have I made an active decision?

- AmI prepared to change the decision to reflect new information or new insights on what

works and not?

- Is another decision contingent on a specific event happening? Have Ievaluated the issue as

it exists today? Is the underlying rationale for the decision still there? What new evidence

is there that can change the likelihood? Does my way of measuring progress give any clue

of what is likely to happen in the future? Events - relevant or irrelevant? Does it make any

difference for my goal (independent of time horizon)?

我所做的是一個靈活的決定嗎？

我是否準備好了改變決定褐耳，以適應新的信息和新的判斷诈闺？

如某一特定事件發(fā)生，是否需要做出新的決定铃芦？如此問題今天就存在雅镊，我有否對其進行過評估？支持此決定的理性思考現(xiàn)在是否存在刃滓？有什么新的證據(jù)證明這個可能性能可以得到改變仁烹？我衡量進展的標準，是否能讓我判斷之后將要發(fā)生的事情咧虎？哪些事件是相關的卓缰，哪些是不相關的？我的目標會否因此發(fā)生改變（若不考慮時間長度）砰诵？

Post mortem or learning from mistakes

- How well did it or didn't it work out? Did I act? Did I do what I said? What did I think at

the time? Original reasons compared to reality?

- Why did I go wrong? How? Where? Opportunity cost?

- How can I figure out if this is going to continue? Have I acted on mymistakes? How act

to not repeat? What should I have done and didn'tdo? What should I concentrate on? What

must I improve? What must I learn?ager

死后反思還是邊學習邊成長征唬？

事情進展的情況有多好或者有多不好？我有否采取什么行動茁彭？我說到做到了嗎总寒？當時我是怎么考慮的？初衷和現(xiàn)實的出入在哪里理肺？

為什么我會犯錯摄闸？犯錯的過程是什么？在哪里犯錯了哲嘲？機會成本有多大贪薪？

我如何判斷現(xiàn)狀是否會照此繼續(xù)下去？我對錯誤有沒有采取行動眠副？如何才能不重演錯誤画切？我該做卻未做的是什么？我應該把精力集中在哪里囱怕？我必須提高和學習的地方在哪霍弹？

What exactly is the problem

- What do I want to achieve? Why don't I achievemy goal? What happen? How does it

happen? Where does it happen and not? When does it happen and not? Who's affected?

- What causes my goal? What interferes with the factors that cause my goal?Symptoms or

core cause? What is the single most important limiting factor for reaching mygoal? What

principles or assumptions do I base this on? What are the consequences if theyare wrong?

Assuming no limitations, what would be the best course of action? Other consequences?

WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CONSEQUENCES

問題的本質(zhì)在哪？

我想達到的是什么娃弓？為什么我沒有達成目標典格？發(fā)生了什么？怎么發(fā)生的台丛？在哪里發(fā)生的耍缴？什么時候發(fā)生的砾肺？誰被影響了？

我的目標因何而達成防嗡？能夠促使我達到目標的因素會受到什么干擾变汪？這些因素是標還是本？對我達成目標構(gòu)成限制的因素中最重要的是哪一個蚁趁？我把目標建立在什么原則和假設上裙盾？如果這些原則和假設有誤的話，結(jié)果會如何他嫡？假若不存在任何限制番官，最好的行為鏈是什么？其他可能的結(jié)果是什么钢属？

WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CONSEQUENCES CONSIDERING HUMAN BEHAVIOR?

人類行為納入考量后的結(jié)果

What is causing me to do this?

What are my present environment and my state?of mind? What is rewarding for me to do/say

if I want to avoid pain? What do I perceivetobe the consequences for me? Are they painful

or pleasurable? What psychological tendencies will influence me? Are they likely to cause a

misjudgment?

什么促使我這樣去做徘熔？

目前我所處的環(huán)境和我的心理狀態(tài)如何？如果避免了痛苦署咽，我能獲得什么好處近顷？我如何判定什么是結(jié)果？它們讓我難受還是愉悅宁否？哪種心理趨向會影響我窒升？這些因素會導致我做出誤判嗎？

What is the context?

What does the environment and participants(incl. size) look like? Who is the decision-maker

and what are his criteria for making decisions? Who benefits and who pay? Who is responsible

for outcome? Who and what are influencing the participant's perception ofreality?

做決策的語境是什么慕匠？

環(huán)境和參與者（包括其規(guī)模）是什么狀況饱须？誰是決策者，他做決策的標準是什么台谊？誰獲益蓉媳，誰買單？誰為結(jié)果負責锅铅？參與者對現(xiàn)實結(jié)果的看法會受什么影響酪呻？

Can I judge him?

Can I judge his character? What are hisexperiences? What temporary or permanent

characteristics influence him (age, cultural background, health, mood... )?What

environmental (present internal and external) or situational factors influence him? Does he

want tosell me something?

我能對他做出正確的判斷嗎？

我能判斷他的角色是什么嗎?他的經(jīng)歷如何盐须？哪些臨時性或者永久性的特征在影響著他（如年齡玩荠、文化背景、健康情況或者心情）贼邓？什么環(huán)境（內(nèi)部或者外部的）或者處境會影響他阶冈？他是否意圖向我出售什么？

What is in his self-interest to do?

What is logical for him to do? What is rewarding?for him to do if he want to avoid pain? What

does he perceive as painful? What does he fear and why? What does he want more of or what

does he not want to be taken away? What "resources" motivates him?His health, job, family,

position, reputation, status, power? What would give him an incentive ordisincentive? What

reward or penalty system causes his behavior? What is he rewarded (perceived)for doing?

What is he punished (perceived) for doing? How is he measured? How does heperceive the

consequences of non-goal? Is ittohis advantage/interest to believe (or not to believe)

something?

他的個人利益在哪里塑径？

什么會符合他的邏輯女坑？他如果避免痛苦，可以獲得什么益處统舀？他將什么視為痛苦匆骗？他害怕什么劳景，為什么？他想多得到一些什么碉就，不想失去什么枢泰？什么“資源”會帶給他動力？是他的健康铝噩、工作、家庭窿克、職銜骏庸、聲名、地位還是權力年叮？什么會激發(fā)他具被，什么會打擊他？什么會（被他視作）是對他的懲罰只损？他可以如何被評估一姿？他怎樣看待“非目標”的后果？對某事的相信（或者不相信）是否能給他帶來優(yōu)勢/利益跃惫？

What are the psychological tendencies and shortcuts that influence him and can cause misjudgment?

What bias affects his conclusions? What external influences is there, that will likely influence

him? What temptations are there that appeal to his self-interest? What activates his behavior?

什么心理取向或缺陷會導致他做出誤判叮叹？

什么偏見會影響他得出的結(jié)論？有什么外在原因可能會影響他爆存？哪些誘惑會符合他的個人利益蛉顽？什么會激發(fā)他去行動？

What are the consequences?

What are the consequences for me? Will my goal still be achieved? Is what is rewarding for

him also rewarding for me? Is the system set up so that the relevant participant's interest

coincides with my goal? Does it "pay him"tomake the wrong decision? Does he understand

the consequences of his behavior? What are the short-and long-term consequencesfor him?

What are the lines of responsibility? Does he have the responsibility for the consequences?

What happens when others do the same?

結(jié)果是什么先较？

我最終的結(jié)果是什么携冤？能達到我的目標嗎？有利于他的東西是否也有利于我嗤堰？我們建立的系統(tǒng)是否能讓相關參與者的利益與我的目標相一致怕午？他的錯誤決定是否會由這個系統(tǒng)來買單敬肚？他是否知道他的行為的結(jié)果？對他來說翘地，短期或長期的結(jié)果是什么？責任鏈是什么债朵？他對結(jié)果是否負有責任子眶？如果換一個人也做同樣的事情，會如何序芦？

What system would I like to have if the roles were reversed?

How would I like to be treated if the roles were reversed? What would cause me to do the

things I want him to do? What are the behavioral tendencies I can use to change his behavior?

How shall I behave if! want to guarantee non-goal? Can I now turn around and?avoid those?

如果交換角色臭杰，我希望構(gòu)建什么樣的體系？

如果將我的角色調(diào)換谚中，我希望怎樣被對待渴杆？什么會促使我去做我希望他做的事情寥枝？我能通過什么行為取向來影響他的行為？如果我執(zhí)意要達成“非目標”磁奖，我需要怎么做囊拜？把角色轉(zhuǎn)換回來后，我能夠避免以上事情發(fā)生嗎比搭？

Is this the right system?

Can I appeal to his self-interest? Can I appeal to fear of losing reputation, money, status,

family..? Can I change his present associations to pain? How can I organize the system to

minimize certain influences? Have I told him what I expect? Have I inspected what is done?

Have I supported things done well? Does he have the necessary skills, knowledge and the

relevant information? Does he know what is expected of him? Does he know the goal, how

he will reach it and why that is the best path? Can he measure his progress? Is it related to his

daily activities? Does he have the responsibility and the authority? Is his reward aligned with

the goal? What rules can I install that will consider human weaknesses? Can Iinstall a reverse

rule? What changes must be made? Who will call for them? How likely is that?What are his

values? His goals? What does he consider to be result? What is his perception of the

consequences if he behave like we want him to and if he doesn't?

系統(tǒng)正確否冠跷？

我可以滿足他的個人利益嗎？我能否消除他對失去聲名身诺、金錢蜜托、地位，以及家庭的恐懼霉赡？我可以改變他對痛苦的看法嗎橄务？怎樣架構(gòu)體系才能使某些影響最小化？我有否告訴過他我的期望是什么穴亏？我有否檢查過已經(jīng)完成的事情蜂挪？對于成功完成的事情，我是否給出了鼓勵與支持嗓化？他掌握必需的技能棠涮、知識和相關的信息嗎？他知道自己肩負的期望嗎蟆湖？他是否明白無誤地知道目標是什么故爵，如何達到，以及為何這是最優(yōu)途徑隅津？他會評估自己的進度嗎诬垂？這與他的日常行為有關嗎？他是否負有責任并獲得了授權伦仍？他所能得到的獎勵是否和目標一致结窘？我可以設定什么樣的規(guī)則來應對人類共有的局限性？設置一個相反的規(guī)定會怎樣充蓝？哪些改變是必須發(fā)生的隧枫？誰對此負有責任？發(fā)生改變的可能性會有多大谓苟？他的價值觀是什么官脓？他的目標？他會將什么視為結(jié)果涝焙？如果他如我們所希望的那樣去做卑笨，他會如何看待結(jié)果？如果他不照我們希望的那樣去做呢仑撞？

BUSINESS EVALUATION

業(yè)務評估

Filter 1 - Can I understand the business - predictability?

- Reasons for demand- How certain am I that (and can explain why) people are likely to

continue buy this type of product or service in the future? What has happened in the past

and what is likely to happen in the future? Cyclically in demand?Capacity versus demand?

- Return characteristics- Industry and company return characteristics and change over the

last ten years?

- Industry structure- No of competitors and size? Who dictate the termsin this industry?

What is needed to make money in this industry? Position within the industry? Do I know

who is going to make the money in this market and why?

- Real Customer-Who decides what to buy and what are hisdecision-criteria?

過濾器1：我能理解業(yè)務嗎——可預測性

需求的原因——我有多確定（并且能解釋為何如此確定）人們將來仍會繼續(xù)購買這類產(chǎn)品或服務赤兴？過去的情況是什么妖滔，未來可能發(fā)生什么？需求是否呈周期性桶良？生產(chǎn)能力與需求的對比是什么樣子座舍？

回報能力——產(chǎn)業(yè)和公司的回報能力，以及其過去10年的發(fā)展狀況是什么陨帆？

產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)——競爭者的數(shù)字和規(guī)模曲秉？誰在該產(chǎn)業(yè)中擁有發(fā)言權？要在該產(chǎn)業(yè)中獲利疲牵，什么因素是必須的岸浑？公司在產(chǎn)業(yè)中的地位如何？我是否知道誰會在這個市場上獲利瑰步，為什么？

真正的消費者——誰對購買行為有決定權璧眠？其決定的標準是什么缩焦？

Filter 2 - Does it look like the business has some kind of sustainable competitive advantage?

- Competitive Advantage- How certain am I that (and can explain why) they are likely to

buy the product or service from the company rather than from someone else? Are the

reasons virtually unchanged from what they were ten years ago? Are these motivations

likely to be unchanged over the next ten years?

- Value- How strong and sustainable is this advantage? Have the advantages become

stronger and more durable over the years? What can destroy or reduce them?Barriers to

entry? Brand loyalty? Vulnerable to change in demand or prices? Easy to copy?Short

product life cycle? Customer cost and incentive to switch supplier? Annual cost differential

against competition? Capital investments needed? Bargaining power? Obsolescence risk?

New customer alternatives? Change in buying habits or power? Competitor potential to

undercut prices assuming same cost structure? What is needed to make sure the advantages

stay sustainable? Growth opportunities left? Is the demand for the productlikely to grow?

Untapped unit volume demand? Pricing power?

- Profitability-Can the advantage be translated into profitability and why? How does the

company make money? How much capital is needed to produce incremental revenues?

Financial characteristics - return on capital (operating margins and capital turnover), gross

margins, sales growth, cost- and capital structure and efficiency? Normalized free cash flow?

Advantages of scale? Critical variable?

過濾器2：此業(yè)務是否有足夠的競爭優(yōu)勢？

競爭優(yōu)勢——我有多確定（并且能解釋為何如此確定）別人會購買我公司的產(chǎn)品或服務而不是其他人的责静？其中的原因是否10年來幾無變化袁滥？在下一個10年會不會改變？

價值——我們的優(yōu)勢能有多強大和可持續(xù)灾螃？這些優(yōu)勢在若干年后會更強大更具持久性嗎题翻？什么會破壞或減少這些優(yōu)勢？市場進入壁壘腰鬼？品牌忠誠度嵌赠？受需求或價格變化的影響程度？是否容易復制熄赡？產(chǎn)品生命周期是否很長姜挺？客戶改變供貨商的成本和動機為何？每年能夠抵御機競爭的價格差異（Annual cost differential against competition）彼硫？需要多大的資本投入炊豪？議價能力如何？產(chǎn)品過時的風險拧篮？客戶新的替代選擇是什么词渤？購買習慣或購買力會有何改變？若成本結(jié)構(gòu)相同串绩，競爭對手會有多大的降價空間缺虐？需要做什么才能保持穩(wěn)固的競爭優(yōu)勢？還有成長空間嗎赏参？市場對此產(chǎn)品的需求有上升的可能嗎志笼？定價能力如何沿盅？

盈利能力。競爭優(yōu)勢能否轉(zhuǎn)化成利潤纫溃，并且如何才能做到腰涧？公司怎樣盈利？要實現(xiàn)收入增長紊浩，需要多少資本窖铡？財務特征：資本回報率（營業(yè)利潤率和投入產(chǎn)出比）、毛利率坊谁、銷售額增長费彼、成本/資本結(jié)構(gòu)及其使用效率？正常情況下的現(xiàn)金流是多少口芍？有無規(guī)模優(yōu)勢箍铲？有無決定性的因素？

財政特征鬓椭。資本回報（操作成本的富余和資本轉(zhuǎn)化）颠猴，毛利潤，銷售增長小染，成本和資本結(jié)構(gòu)的效用率翘瓮？正常的現(xiàn)金流？規(guī)模優(yōu)勢裤翩？

Filter 3 - Able and honest management?

- Is the management composed of competent and honest people that understands and

focuses on creation ofvalue?

過濾器3：能干且誠信的管理層资盅？

組成管理團隊的，是能力出眾踊赠、誠實可信呵扛，并且理解和全力去創(chuàng)造價值的人嗎？

Filter 4 - Is the price right?

- Can I buy at a price that provides a good return with a huge margin of safety measured

against other available alternatives and with evidence from facts and figures?

過濾器4：價格正確否筐带？

我能夠以比其他選擇有更好回報的價格買下這個產(chǎn)品么择份？需要有事實和數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù)。

Filter 5 – Disprove

- How can the business get killed? If the company could kill one of its competitors, who

would it be and why? If the company would go away for 5 years which competitor would

they bet on and why? How resistant is the business to adversity? Assume the company paid

out all its equity capital, would it still have any value? Could someone with the access to

billions of dollars and talent, successfully compete with the company? How much damage

could a competitor do if he doesn't care about returns? Recession sensitivity?Execution

risk? Will new technology help or hurt?

過濾器5：反證

生意會怎樣被毀掉烫堤？如果公司要徹底將一個競爭對手置于死地荣赶，這個對手會是誰？為什么鸽斟？如果公司繼續(xù)運營下去拔创，5年之后誰會是競爭對手，為什么富蓄？公司業(yè)務抵抗不利因素的能力如何剩燥？如果公司花光了所有的股權投資，它還會不會有價值？會否出現(xiàn)某人獲得大量資金和人才灭红，在競爭中勝過公司侣滩？如果競爭對手并不在乎回報，他可以對公司產(chǎn)生多大的破壞变擒？公司對經(jīng)濟衰退的敏感程度如何君珠？執(zhí)行時所面臨的風險有多大？新技術會有益還是有害娇斑？

Filter 6 - What are the consequences if I'm wrong?

過濾器6：如果我錯了策添，結(jié)果會如何？