As a schoolboy in Edinburgh, I was taught that, long before the union with England, Scotland had been a cosmopolitan country. 在愛丁堡求學(xué)期間，我了解到蘇格蘭在加入英格蘭聯(lián)盟以前很長時間一直都是四海一家的國家艾岂。
The ports on the east coast showed the influence of trade with the Netherlands and the Hanseatic League. 它的東海岸展現(xiàn)了與荷蘭的貿(mào)易和受到漢薩同盟影響的獨特風(fēng)貌。
The Scots language demonstrated continental influences. The citizens of Edinburgh would shout “gardyloo”, supposedly from the French “gare del'eau”, before throwing their slops into the streets from the windows of the tall tenements of Edinburgh's Old Town. 蘇格蘭語言也受到歐洲大陸影響。在愛丁堡一些古舊的鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)上，市民從高樓的窗口潑水的時候通常會喊一句: gardyloo~潑水啦膘格！這句話很可能來自法語的"gare del'eau"纵竖。
Even then, this example of early Scots sophistication did not convince. 話雖如此，但是這不足以證明蘇格蘭早期市民的構(gòu)成柴我。
And the claim that their vote to stay in the EU — all districts of Scotland voted Remain in the referendum, and 62 per cent of the nation's voters as a whole voted to stay in the EU — is the product of a broad-minded outlook not seen south of the border also misses a crucial point. 蘇格蘭為反對脫歐發(fā)出的吶喊源于一種的粗獷的思維方式，而非因為他們細(xì)心地抓住了英格蘭脫歐把戲的漏洞扩然。在這里艘儒，曾經(jīng)所有地區(qū)投票給"留在歐洲"，62%的市民拉響了反對脫歐的集結(jié)號夫偶。
The reality is that the discontent with established politics that erupted in the Leave vote elsewhere in the country has found expression in other ways. 但是結(jié)果說明界睁，在其他地區(qū)，由于對現(xiàn)有政策不滿而興起的脫歐陣營的呼聲無孔不入兵拢。
As one student of Scottish politics, explaining the UK Independence party's lack of traction north of the border, put it to me two years ago: “People in Scotland who are disgruntled and suspicious of foreigners [the English] already have a party they can vote for.” 英國獨立派缺乏牽引北方地區(qū)的動力翻斟，正如兩年前一個研究蘇格蘭政治的學(xué)生所說 : 蘇格蘭人民對英國人（視之為外國人）所持悻悻然和懷疑的態(tài)度讓他們自然而然不肯投將手中的票投給脫歐派。
The fracturing of the opposition Labour party's traditional support in depressed areas of the north of England, which was decisive in securing an Out vote, paralleled the collapse of Labour's vote in the west of Scotland in favour of the Scottish National party in the general election of 2015. 英國北方情緒憂郁的人們作為工黨對立一方的傳統(tǒng)支持力量说铃，人少勢微访惜，卻執(zhí)著于尋求脫歐的保障，這跟2015年工黨試圖在蘇格蘭西部扶植蘇格蘭民族黨所做的努力功虧一簣有異曲同工之妙腻扇。
The great achievement of the SNP, now in government in Holyrood and with MPs in Westminster, has been to be a party of protest and a party of government at the same time. This is an achievement Brexiters will find hard to emulate. 蘇格蘭國民黨的偉大成就债热，如今在荷里路德宮的政府和威斯敏斯特的MPs, 不僅是反對脫歐的政黨，而且是政府的政黨幼苛。對于脫歐派來說這是望塵莫及的窒篱。
While the Leave campaign and the SNP are disparate coalitions brought together by a common hostility, the SNP has a clearer and more positive vision of the future, and evidence of administrative competence has been absent on the Brexit side. 雖然蘇格蘭國民黨與脫歐陣營分歧很大，只是為了對付共同的敵人才走到一起舶沿，然而前者對未來的規(guī)劃卻更加清晰茄更具有可行性墙杯，同時脫歐派的行政能力也略遜一籌。
A remarkable outcome of the Remain campaign was that the two most impressive political performers were women from Scotland: Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP first minister, and Ruth Davidson, leader of the opposition Scottish Conservatives. English politics is in chaos; Scottish politics is not括荡。反對脫歐的活動中引人注目的一項成就高镐，是兩位最出色的活動家都是來自蘇格蘭的女性，蘇格蘭國民黨首任總理尼古拉?斯塔金恩和反蘇格蘭保守黨領(lǐng)袖露絲?大威徳森一汽。英國政局亂哄哄避消，蘇格蘭卻相反低滩。
But support in Scotland for the SNP, in large part a response to Labour's failure, should not necessarily be equated with support for independence. 蘇格蘭對SNP的支持主要是因為工黨的失敗，而非出于追求獨立岩喷。
The SNP cannot call a fresh referendum unless it is highly confident of winning it.蘇格蘭國民黨在沒有絕對把握的情況下不能召集新一輪投票恕沫。
A second No vote, even if close, would put an end to dreams of independence for a generation and perhaps forever, as in Quebec. 如果投票結(jié)果事與愿違，即使雙方票數(shù)相差不大纱意，也可能終結(jié)一代人獨立的夢想婶溯，甚至就像加拿大魁北克一樣鬧成覆水難收的結(jié)局。
And economic prospects for Scotland are less attractive with oil below $50 per barrel than when prices were twice that level. 由于現(xiàn)在油價低于每桶50美金偷霉， 相比曾經(jīng)100美元一桶的時代迄委，就算打出讓蘇格蘭經(jīng)濟崛起的口號也無濟于事。
On the other hand, one factor has changed decisively. If Scotland had voted for separation in 2014 the path to EU membership would have been slow. 另一方面类少，有一個因素已不可逆轉(zhuǎn)叙身。假如2014年蘇格蘭就舉行獨立投票，通向歐盟成員國的道路還有可能變緩硫狞。
While the outcome would have been inevitable, countries with their own separatist movements, notably Spain but also perhaps Belgium and Italy, would probably have been obstructive. 然而其結(jié)果是不可避免的信轿，那些存在分裂主意的國家，比如較明顯的西班牙残吩，可能還包括比利時和意大利财忽，可能成為障礙。
Now, Scottish accession would be greeted with open arms. And while it probably does not make sense for an independent Scotland to join the eurozone, dallying with the prospect is a tease that might assist in negotiations with both the EU and the rest of the UK. 現(xiàn)在泣侮，蘇格蘭單獨加入歐盟將受到熱烈歡迎即彪。但是由于蘇格蘭不可能作為獨立的國家加入歐盟，延遲該議程可能其與歐盟和與蘇格蘭以外的其他英國地區(qū)的談判有所幫助
After the Scots independence referendum failed, narrowly, in 2014, I judged that independence was the likely outcome but probably not in my lifetime. 2014年活尊，蘇格蘭獨立投票失敗后隶校，我判斷，蘇格蘭獨立在我有生之年不太可能實現(xiàn)蛹锰。
It now seems likely that I will see it. Whether it is desirable is another matter altogether. As with Brexit itself, the economic impact of the change is greatly exaggerated by both sides and the costs of transition large. 不管是不是由于我一廂情愿的想法惠况，現(xiàn)在看來我可能判斷錯了。雙方對于脫歐本身在經(jīng)濟方面造成的影響和耗費的成本夸大其詞了
