Day 1原文文本
【翻譯劃線段落】
Dollars will findbuyers hard to find in 2017
With theUSFederal Reserve raising interest rates, and President Mario Draghi of theEuropean Central Bankseemingly unable
to escape his addiction to quantitative easing policy,many investors arequestioning who wants to buy the euro. The answer is simple. The whole world iseager to buy the euro. The problem in 2017 is more likely to be finding anyonewho wants to buy the US dollar.
美國聯(lián)邦儲備系統(tǒng)持續(xù)提高利率，歐洲中央銀行行長馬里奧·德拉吉也似乎無法放棄對量化寬松貨幣政策的鐘愛，這引起許多投資者的議論：誰還會去購買歐元呢道偷？答案很簡單:全世界都熱切想要購買歐元生闲。2017年，誰會想要購買美元才更可能是個(gè)問題于颖。
TheMiddle Eastis a good example of a region ofavid euro buyers.Even with therecent rally in the oil price,mostMiddle Eastern countries are expected torunsizeable fiscal deficits. The IMF expectsSaudi Arabiatorun a fiscal deficit of almost 10 per cent of GDP next year. To fund theirbudget deficits, the Gulf countries are selling central bank reserves and poolsof assets held by their sovereign wealth funds.
中東地區(qū)就是歐元的熱切買家中的一大代表。即便最近油價(jià)上漲，大多數(shù)中東地區(qū)的國家預(yù)計(jì)都存在巨額財(cái)政赤字台猴。聯(lián)合國國際貨幣基金組織預(yù)估沙特阿拉伯明年的財(cái)政赤字占其國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的近百分之十。這個(gè)海灣國家正在出售央行儲備和資產(chǎn)池型主權(quán)財(cái)富基金來為預(yù)算赤字提供資金俱两。
ImagineSaudi Arabiasells US Treasuries, and uses the dollars it receives to pay its civilservants. Then imagine that a Saudi Arabian civil servant takes their pay anduses the money to buy a BMW car in euros. What is happening?Saudi Arabiaisselling dollars and buying euros. It does not matter that there is an asset onone side of the transaction and a BMW on the other side of the transaction —the foreign exchange market implicationis the same whether it is Bunds or BMWs that are bought.
If the Middle Eastbuys assets, they like their assets to be made inAmerica(central banks buy roughly twice as manyUSassets as other assets). If theMiddle East buys products and services, they like their products and servicesto be made in Europe (the Middle East buys twice as much from Europe as fromtheUS).Thus if theMiddle Eastis selling assets tobuy goods, it sells dollars to buy euros.
Of coursethis does not just apply totheMiddle East. The world is eager to buy euros because theworld wants European products(in preference toUS products). The relativecurrent account balancesof the Euroarea and theUSalone tell us that.China,another economy inclined todivestitself of US assetsof late, buysmore euro area imports than US imports.The same is true ofthe APEC Asian economies as abloc.Africa’spreference forEuro area products incomparison to American isoverwhelming.Only Latin America exhibits any relative
desire tobuy “made inAmerica”.The rest of the worldclamoursforeuros to obtain goods and services from their preferred supplier.
1.divest:~ yourself of sth to
get rid of sth處理掉饱狂；丟棄:
?The company is divesting itself of some ofits assets.公司正在處理它的部份財(cái)產(chǎn)。
~ sb / sth of sth to
take sth away from sb / sth使解除宪彩；使擺脫:
?After her illness she was divested of much ofher responsibility.她生病后便給解除了許多責(zé)任休讳。
2.bloc: a group of
countries that work closely together because they have similar political
interests (政治利益一致的)國家集團(tuán)
So why is the euronot stronger with all this enthusiastic buying of BMWs and other euro areagoods?
3.clamour: to demandsomething loudly
[clamour for]
The audiencecheered, clamoring for more.
[clamour to dosomething]
All his friends wereclamouring to know where he’d been.
to talk or shoutloudly:
Children clamoredexcitedly.
In 2016 theUSbasicallypleaded withthe rest ofthe world to lend it money. US interest rates are above those of the euro area(euro area interest rates are negative).USbond yields are above those ofthe euro area (many euro area bond yields are negative). USequitieshaveoutperformedthose of the euro area (by about 15 per cent, and euroarea equity performance is negative this year). The US basically did everythingthat it could to persuade investors to buy dollars — and at the end of all ofthat effort the euro still trades within 4 per cent of where it traded againstthe dollar at the start of the year.
The challenge fortheUSis that it needs foreigners to buy dollars every day to stop the dollar fromfalling. In the first nine months of 2016, foreigners had to purchase $2.7bnevery day. That is more than the daily GDP of theNetherlands.Any day thatforeignerswere not inclined tobuy $2.7bn, thedollar would weaken. This is important — if foreigners decide that they want to“wait and see” what Donald Trump’s policies are like beforecommitting tobuying more dollars, thenthe dollar will fall. “Wait and see” is not good enough for theUS.
The question is notwho wants to buy euros — the whole world wants to buy euros because the wholeworld wants to buy euro area products. TheUShad to offer considerable financialincentives to persuade foreigners to buy dollars.
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