英文部分及圖片來自“經(jīng)濟學(xué)人”雜志山橄。譯文是個人學(xué)習(xí)、欣賞語言之用舍悯，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載或用于任何商業(yè)用途航棱。本人同意簡書平臺在接獲有關(guān)著作權(quán)人的通知后，刪除文章萌衬。
The world’s most remarkable firm may eventually be threatened by its own success.
這個世界上最卓越的企業(yè)最終可能受到來自自身成功的威脅饮醇。
AMAZON is an extraordinary company. The former bookseller accounts for more than half of every new dollar spent online in America. It is the world’s leading provider of cloud computing. This year Amazon will probably spend twice as much on television as HBO, a cable channel. Its own-brand physical products include batteries, almonds, suits and speakers linked to a virtual voice-activated assistant that can control, among other things, your lamps and sprinkler.
AMAZON是一家非凡的公司。這家以前的圖書銷售商已占到美國在線消費額的一半以上秕豫。它還是世界領(lǐng)先的云計算提供商朴艰。今年亞馬遜在電視內(nèi)容制作上的支出可能兩倍于有線電視頻道HBO观蓄。其自有品牌的實體產(chǎn)品包括電池，杏仁祠墅，西裝侮穿。還有能與虛擬語音助手相連的音箱，可用于控制包括燈具和噴淋頭等裝置毁嗦。
Yet Amazon’s shareholders are working on the premise that it is just getting started. Since the beginning of 2015 its share price has jumped by 173%, seven times quicker than in the two previous years (and 12 times faster than the S&P 500 index).With a market capitalisation of some $400bn, it is the fifth most-valuable firm in the world. Never before has a company been worth so much for so long while making so little money: 92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020.
然而，亞馬遜的股東們投資的前提是這一切僅僅是開始而已狗准。2015年年初以來克锣，其股價上漲了173％，比前兩年快了7倍（比標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)快了12倍）腔长。目前市值約4000億美元袭祟。公司已在全球最有價值公司中排名第五位。以前還從來沒有哪一家公司在只創(chuàng)造了微不足道利潤的情況下捞附，在如此長時間內(nèi)保持如此高的估值：其估值的92％基于2020年以后創(chuàng)造的利潤巾乳。
That is because investors anticipate both an extraordinary rise in revenue, from sales of $136bn last year to half a trillion over the next decade, and a jump in profits. The hopes invested in it imply that it will probably become more profitable than any other firm in America. Ground for scepticism does not come much more fertile than this: Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify its valuation. Can it possibly do so?
那是因為投資者預(yù)計公司收入未來會有異乎尋常的上漲，從去年的1360億美元故俐，在十年內(nèi)增加到年銷售額5000億美元想鹰，而且利潤也會暴增。把投資希望寄托于它药版，意味著它可能變得比美國任何其他公司更利潤豐厚辑舷。懷疑論質(zhì)疑的基礎(chǔ)在于：亞馬遜必須比近代史上幾乎任何一家大公司成長得更快才能證明其估值合理。這可能實現(xiàn)嗎槽片？
It is easy to tick off some of the pitfalls. Rivals will not standstill. Microsoft has cloud-computing ambitions; Walmart already has revenues nudging $500bn and is beefing up online.If anything happened to Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and boss, the gap would be exceptionally hard to fill. But the striking thing about the company is how much of a chance it has of achieving such unprecedented goals.
可以很容易羅列出一些危險何缓。對手不會坐以待斃；微軟擁有云計算的野心; 沃爾瑪?shù)哪晔杖胍呀?jīng)逼近了5000億美金还栓，而且正在加強其線上投入碌廓；亞馬遜的創(chuàng)始人和老板貝索斯要有個三長兩短，這個空缺將非常難以彌補剩盒。但是谷婆，公司最引人注目之事是實現(xiàn)這樣一個前所未有的目標(biāo)有多少機會。
A new sort of basket-case
新籃中惡魔
This is largely due to the firm’s unusual approach to two dimensions of corporate life. The first of these is time. In an era when executives routinely whinge about pressure to produce short-term results, Amazon is resolutely focused on the distant horizon. Mr Bezos emphasises continual investment to propelits two principal businesses, e-commerce and Amazon WebServices (AWS), its cloud-computing arm.
這很大程度上因為公司對企業(yè)生存的兩個維度的非同尋常的做法辽聊。第一個是時間纪挎。這樣一個高管們經(jīng)常抱怨工作在重壓下，短期內(nèi)要出成績的時代跟匆，亞馬遜卻堅定地把目光放在遠(yuǎn)方的地平線异袄。貝索斯先生強調(diào)要不斷投資以推動兩大主要業(yè)務(wù)模塊-電子商務(wù)和它的云計算部門亞馬遜網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)（AWS）。
In e-commerce, the more shoppers Amazon lures, the more retailers and manufacturers want to sell their goods on Amazon.That gives Amazon more cash for new services—such as two-hour shipping and streaming video and music—which entice more shoppers. Similarly, the more customers use AWS,the more Amazon can invest in new services, which attract more customers. A third virtuous circle is starting to whirl around Alexa, the firm’s voice-activated assistant: as developers build services for Alexa, it becomes more useful to consumers,giving developers reason to create yet more services.
在電子商務(wù)方面玛臂，亞馬遜吸引的消費者越多烤蜕，愿意在亞馬遜上出售自己商品的零售商和制造商也會越多封孙。那將帶給亞馬遜更多的現(xiàn)金用于新的服務(wù)，諸如兩小時發(fā)運和流媒體視頻和音樂讽营，這會吸引更多的顧客虎忌。于此類似，越多客戶使用AWS斑匪，就有越多資金可以投資到新的服務(wù)呐籽，吸引更多的客戶锋勺。第三個良性循環(huán)圍繞著該公司的語音助理Alexa開始展開：隨著開發(fā)者們?yōu)锳lexa開發(fā)出一些服務(wù)功能蚀瘸，對消費者來說它就變得更加有用，而開發(fā)者也就找到了開發(fā)出更多服務(wù)功能的理由庶橱。
So long as shareholders retain their faith in this model, Amazon’s heady valuation resembles a self-fulfilling prophecy. The company will be able to keep spending, and its spending will keep making it more powerful. Their faith is sustained by Amazon’s record. It has had its failures—its attempt to make a smartphone was a debacle. But the business is starting to crank out cash. Last year cash flow (before investment) was $16bn,more than quadruple the level five years ago.
只要股東對這一模式保持信心贮勃，亞馬遜有點任性的估值就會像一個自證預(yù)言。公司將有能力保持支出苏章，其支出又會使公司更加強大寂嘉。亞馬遜的記錄支撐了他們的信心。它曾經(jīng)歷了一些失敗 -制造智能手機的嘗試就是其中的一次枫绅。但業(yè)務(wù)已經(jīng)開始產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流泉孩。去年，現(xiàn)金流（投資前）為160億美元并淋，是五年前的四倍寓搬。
If Amazon’s approach to time-frames is unusual, so too is the sheer breadth of its activities. The company’s list of current and possible competitors, as described in its annual filings, includes logistics firms, search engines, social networks, food manufacturers and producers of “physical, digital and interactive media of all types”. A wingspan this large is more reminiscent of a conglomerate than a retailer, which makes Amazon’s share price seem even more bloated: stock markets typically apply a “conglomerate discount” to reflect their inefficiencies.
如果說亞馬遜路徑的時間框架是不同尋常的，那么其經(jīng)營活動的廣度也是如此县耽。該公司的年報中列出的當(dāng)前和可能競爭對手的名單包括物流公司句喷，搜索引擎，社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)兔毙，食品制造商和“各種物質(zhì)唾琼，數(shù)字和交互媒體”的制造商。如此大的經(jīng)營跨度更讓人想象這是一家企業(yè)集團澎剥，而不是零售商锡溯，這使得亞馬遜的股價似乎更加虛高了些：證券市場通常適用“企業(yè)集團折扣”來反映其低效率。
Many of these services support Amazon’s own expansion and that of other companies. The obvious example is AWS,which powers Amazon’s operations as well as those of other firms. But Amazon also rents warehouse space to other sellers.It is building a $1.5bn air-freight hub in Kentucky. It is testing technology in stores to let consumers skip the cash register altogether,and experimenting with drone deliveries to the home. Such tools could presumably serve other customers,too. Some think that Amazon could become a new kind of utility:one that provides the infrastructure of commerce, from computing power to payments to logistics.
許多這些服務(wù)支撐了亞馬遜自己的擴張和也支持了其他公司的擴張哑姚。 明顯的例子是AWS祭饭，它推動了亞馬遜以及其他公司的業(yè)務(wù)增長。但亞馬遜還向其他賣家租賃倉儲空間蜻懦。它正在肯塔基州建造一座價值15億美元的空運中心甜癞。 它正在一些商店測試技術(shù)，讓消費者完全不必通過收款機付款宛乃，并嘗試用無人機送貨到家悠咱。這樣的工具相信也可以為其他客戶服務(wù)蒸辆。 有些人認(rèn)為亞馬遜可以成為一種新型實用工具：提供從計算能力到支付到物流的商業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。
A giant cannot hide
大到無處藏身
And here lies the real problem with the expectations surrounding Amazon.If it gets anywhere close to fulfilling them, it will attract the attention of regulators. For now, Amazon is unlikely to trigger antitrust action. It is not yet the biggest retailer in America, its most mature market. America’s antitrust enforcers look mainly at a firm’s effect on consumers and pricing.Seen through this lens, Amazon appears pristine. Consumers applaud it; it is the most well-regarded company in America,according to a Harris poll. (AWS is a boon to startups, too.)
這才是圍繞著亞馬遜期待的真正問題所在析既。如果亞馬遜接近完成這些目標(biāo)躬贡，它將會引起監(jiān)管機構(gòu)的關(guān)注。到目前為止眼坏，亞馬遜不太可能引發(fā)反托拉斯行動拂玻。它還不是美國這個最成熟的市場上最大的零售商。美國的反壟斷執(zhí)法者主要考察企業(yè)對消費者和定價的影響宰译。通過這個視角檐蚜，亞馬遜看起來還處于初級階段。消費者夸贊它沿侈。哈里斯公司的調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示闯第，亞馬遜是美國最受尊敬的公司。 （AWS也是初創(chuàng)公司的福音缀拭。）
But as it grows, so will concerns about its power. Even on standard antitrust grounds, that may pose a problem: if it makes as much money as investors hope, a rough calculation suggests its earnings could be worth the equivalent of 25% of the combined profits of listed Western retail and media firms.But regulators are also changing the way they think about technology.In Europe, Google stands accused of using its clout as a search engine to extend its power to adjacent businesses. The comparative immunity from legal liability of digital platforms—for the posting of inflammatory content on Facebook,say, or the vetting of drivers on Uber—is being chipped away.
但隨著它的增長咳短，對它力量的關(guān)注程度也會與日俱增。即便按照標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的反壟斷理由蛛淋，這也會帶來問題：如果亞馬遜能夠賺到投資者預(yù)期的利潤咙好，粗略的計算表明其盈利可能會相當(dāng)于西方零售和媒體公司總利潤的25％。而且監(jiān)管機構(gòu)正在改變他們對技術(shù)的看法褐荷。在歐洲勾效，Google被指控利用其搜索引擎的影響力來擴展其相鄰業(yè)務(wù)的能力。數(shù)字平臺法律責(zé)任的比較豁免權(quán)正在被蠶食 - 比如針對在Facebook上發(fā)表煽動性內(nèi)容或?qū)ber司機的審查诚卸。
Amazon’s business model will also encourage regulators to think differently. Investors value Amazon’s growth over profits; that makes predatory pricing more tempting. In future,firms could increasingly depend on tools provided by their biggest rival. If Amazon does become a utility for commerce, the calls will grow for it to be regulated as one. Shareholders are right to believe in Amazon’s potential. But success will bring it into conflict with an even stronger beast: government.
亞馬遜的商業(yè)模式也將促使監(jiān)管機構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換思路葵第。投資者按照亞馬遜的利潤增長估值; 這使得掠奪性定價更具誘惑力。未來合溺，企業(yè)可能越來越依賴其最大競爭對手提供的工具卒密。如果亞馬遜確實成為商業(yè)用途，那么作為一個整體監(jiān)管的呼聲將增長棠赛。股東相信亞馬遜的潛力很有道理哮奇。但它的成功會與更強大的野獸-政府產(chǎn)生沖突。
有部分英文電子版書籍睛约，雜志可供學(xué)習(xí)交流之用鼎俘。免費提供，不收分文辩涝。如有需要贸伐，請聯(lián)系我。讓我們共同提高怔揩，一起成長捉邢。
