1亏拉、董事會中的工人
我們估計(jì)了共享治理或共同決定的工資效應(yīng)，即授權(quán)三分之一的公司董事會席位由工人代表占有。我們研究了德國的一項(xiàng)改革，該改革突然取消對1994年8月后成立的股票公司的授權(quán)异旧，同時(shí)鎖定了對年齡較大公司的授權(quán)意述。我們的研究設(shè)計(jì)比較了改革前后的企業(yè)組群;在穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn)中提佣，我們利用了未受影響的公司類型(有限責(zé)任公司)的類似差異。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)董事會層面的共同決定對工資和工資結(jié)構(gòu)沒有影響荤崇，即使是在工資特別靈活的公司拌屏。租金分?jǐn)偝潭群蛣趧邮杖胝急纫膊皇苡绊憽Ｎ覀儾徽J(rèn)為术荤，撤資可能通過規(guī)范的拖延渠道抵消了工資效應(yīng)倚喂，因?yàn)楣蚕碇卫?如果有的話)會增加資本形成。
We estimate the wage effects of shared governance, or codetermination, in the form of a mandate of one-third of corporate board seats going to worker representatives. We study a reform in Germany that abruptly abolished this mandate for stock corporations incorporated after August 1994, while it locked the mandate for the slightly older cohorts. Our research design compares firm cohorts incorporated before the reform and after; in a robustness check we draw on the analogous difference in unaffected firm types (LLCs). We find no effects of board-level codetermination on wages and the wage structure, even in firms with particularly flexible wages. The degree of rent sharing and the labor share are also unaffected. We reject that disinvestment could have offset wage effects through the canonical hold-up channel, as shared governance, if anything, increases capital formation.
參考文獻(xiàn)：Simon J?ger, Benjamin Schoefer, J?rg Heining, Labor in the Boardroom, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 136, Issue 2, May 2021, Pages 669–725
2瓣戚、美國私營企業(yè)的勞動權(quán)益
我們提出了勞動權(quán)益理論端圈，即企業(yè)所有者建立客戶基礎(chǔ)、客戶名單和其他無形資產(chǎn)的時(shí)間和費(fèi)用的價(jià)值子库。我們運(yùn)用來自美國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)核算舱权、商業(yè)普查和中介銷售的數(shù)據(jù)，對這一理論進(jìn)行了研究仑嗅，估計(jì)私營企業(yè)部門的勞動權(quán)益價(jià)值相當(dāng)于美國GDP的1.2倍宴倍，這與這些企業(yè)使用的固定資產(chǎn)價(jià)值大致相同。對于一個特定所有者來說仓技，26%的勞動權(quán)益可以通過繼承或出售進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)讓鸵贬。股權(quán)價(jià)值與企業(yè)收入和基于會計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的加成標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)正相關(guān)，但與所有者金融資產(chǎn)或企業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率不相關(guān)脖捻。使用我們的理論證明阔逼，從汗水活動中提取會導(dǎo)致顯著低估降低企業(yè)所得稅稅率對私營企業(yè)活動在廣延和集約邊際上的影響。盡管發(fā)現(xiàn)了更大的響應(yīng)地沮，我們的模型中關(guān)于企業(yè)和業(yè)主工時(shí)的隱含稅收彈性與公共財(cái)政文獻(xiàn)中的實(shí)證估計(jì)一致嗜浮。考慮融資約束和超級巨星公司并沒有推翻我們的主要發(fā)現(xiàn)诉濒。
We develop a theory of sweat equity—the value of business owners’ time and expenses to build customer bases, client lists, and other intangible assets. We discipline the theory using data from U.S. national accounts, business censuses, and brokered sales to estimate a value for sweat equity in the private business sector equal to 1.2 times U.S. GDP, which is about the same magnitude as the value of fixed assets in use in these businesses. For a typical owner, 26% of the sweat equity is transferable through inheritance or sale. The equity values are positively correlated with business incomes and standard measures of markups based on accounting data, but not with owners’ financial assets or standard measures of business total factor productivity. We use our theory to show that abstracting from sweat activity leads to a significant understatement of the effects of lowering business income tax rates on private business activity for both the extensive and intensive margins. Despite finding larger responses, our model’s implied tax elasticities of establishments and owner hours are in line with empirical estimates in the public finance literature. Allowing for financial constraints and superstar firms does not overturn our main findings.
參考文獻(xiàn)：Anmol Bhandari, Ellen R McGrattan, Sweat Equity in U.S. Private Business, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 136, Issue 2, May 2021, Pages 727–781,
3周伦、銀行業(yè)、貿(mào)易和主導(dǎo)貨幣的形成
我們探討了以不同貨幣計(jì)價(jià)的貿(mào)易結(jié)算模式和安全資產(chǎn)定價(jià)之間的相互作用未荒。我們的理論強(qiáng)調(diào)了以下幾點(diǎn):(i)貨幣作為計(jì)價(jià)單位的作用與其作為安全的價(jià)值儲存的作用是互補(bǔ)的;(ii) 這種互補(bǔ)性可能導(dǎo)致在貿(mào)易結(jié)算和全球銀行業(yè)務(wù)中出現(xiàn)一種占主導(dǎo)地位的貨幣专挪，即使是在多個候選大國具有類似的經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)的情況下; (iii) 新興市場國家的企業(yè)通過借入主導(dǎo)貨幣，從內(nèi)生角度承擔(dān)貨幣錯配問題;(iv)以主導(dǎo)貨幣計(jì)價(jià)的安全資產(chǎn)的預(yù)期回報(bào)低于以其他貨幣計(jì)價(jià)的類似安全資產(chǎn)的預(yù)期回報(bào)，從而賦予主導(dǎo)貨幣過高的特權(quán)寨腔。因此速侈，該理論為為什么一種主要貨幣在貿(mào)易結(jié)算和全球金融中被如此廣泛地使用提供了一個統(tǒng)一的解釋。
We explore the interplay between trade-invoicing patterns and the pricing of safe assets in different currencies. Our theory highlights the following points: (i) a currency’s role as a unit of account for invoicing decisions is complementary to its role as a safe store of value; (ii) this complementarity can lead to the emergence of a single dominant currency in trade invoicing and global banking, even when multiple large candidate countries share similar economic fundamentals; (iii) firms in emerging-market countries endogenously take on currency mismatches by borrowing in the dominant currency; and (iv) the expected return on dominant-currency safe assets is lower than that on similarly safe assets denominated in other currencies, thereby bestowing an “exorbitant privilege” on the dominant currency. The theory thus provides a unified explanation for why a dominant currency is so heavily used in both trade invoicing and in global finance.
參考文獻(xiàn)：Gita Gopinath, Jeremy C Stein, Banking, Trade, and the Making of a Dominant Currency, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 136, Issue 2, May 2021, Pages 783–830,
4迫卢、貿(mào)易政策的環(huán)境偏向
本文描述了一個新的事實(shí)倚搬，并分析了其原因和后果:在大多數(shù)國家，污染產(chǎn)業(yè)的進(jìn)口關(guān)稅和非關(guān)稅壁壘遠(yuǎn)低于清潔產(chǎn)業(yè)乾蛤，清潔產(chǎn)業(yè)的污染定義為每美元產(chǎn)出的二氧化碳排放量每界。這種貿(mào)易政策上的差異造成了對國際貿(mào)易商品的二氧化碳排放的全球隱性補(bǔ)貼，并加劇了氣候變化家卖。這種全球?qū)Χ趸寂欧诺碾[性補(bǔ)貼每年總計(jì)數(shù)千億美元眨层。對相對清潔的下游產(chǎn)業(yè)的保護(hù)力度加大，是這種模式的主要原因上荡。下游模式可以用以下理論來解釋:行業(yè)游說對其投入物征收低關(guān)稅趴樱，但最終消費(fèi)者組織不善。一個定量的一般均衡模型表明酪捡，如果各國對清潔產(chǎn)品和不清潔產(chǎn)品實(shí)施類似的貿(mào)易政策叁征，全球二氧化碳排放量將會減少，全球?qū)嶋H收入將不會有太大變化逛薇。
This article describes a new fact, then analyzes its causes and consequences: in most countries, import tariffs and nontariff barriers are substantially lower on dirty than on clean industries, where an industry’s “dirtiness” is defined as its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per dollar of output. This difference in trade policy creates a global implicit subsidy to CO2 emissions in internationally traded goods and contributes to climate change. This global implicit subsidy to CO2 emissions totals several hundred billion dollars annually. The greater protection of downstream industries, which are relatively clean, substantially accounts for this pattern. The downstream pattern can be explained by theories where industries lobby for low tariffs on their inputs but final consumers are poorly organized. A quantitative general equilibrium model suggests that if countries applied similar trade policies to clean and dirty goods, global CO2 emissions would decrease and global real income would change little.
參考文獻(xiàn)：Joseph S Shapiro, The Environmental Bias of Trade Policy, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 136, Issue 2, May 2021, Pages 831–886,
5捺疼、失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)與求職行為
失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)如何影響失業(yè)工人的搜索行為?搜索模型預(yù)測，在福利耗盡之前金刁，失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)會抑制求職努力帅涂，并增加保留工資。在失業(yè)期間尤蛮，尋找工作的努力應(yīng)該會增加媳友，以使福利耗盡，并在失業(yè)后保持高位产捞。與此同時(shí)醇锚，保留工資應(yīng)減少到受益耗盡，并在此后保持較低水平坯临。為了驗(yàn)證這些預(yù)測焊唬，我們將管理登記冊與法國一家主要在線求職平臺上的求職行為數(shù)據(jù)匹配起來。我們跟蹤了超過40萬的工人看靠，只要他們?nèi)匀皇I(yè)赶促。我們分析了搜尋行為在福利耗盡前后的變化，并采取了兩個步驟來分離個體對失業(yè)福利的反應(yīng)挟炬。首先鸥滨，我們的縱向數(shù)據(jù)允許我們糾正休息期中樣本組成的變化嗦哆。其次，我們利用符合12 - 24個月失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)條件的工人以及不符合失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)條件的工人數(shù)據(jù)婿滓，來控制在失業(yè)期間獨(dú)立于失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)的行為變化老速。我們的結(jié)果證實(shí)了搜索模型的預(yù)測。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)凸主，在福利耗盡的前一年橘券，尋找工作的努力(工作申請的數(shù)量)至少增加了50%，此后仍保持高水平卿吐。在福利耗盡的前一年旁舰，每月目標(biāo)工資至少下降2.4%，此后仍保持較低水平但两。此外鬓梅，我們還提供了持續(xù)時(shí)間依賴性的證據(jù):無論失業(yè)狀況如何，工人每年都會降低他們的目標(biāo)工資1.5%谨湘。
How does unemployment insurance (UI) affect unemployed workers’ search behavior? Search models predict that until benefit exhaustion, UI depresses job search effort and increases reservation wages. Over an unemployment spell, search effort should increase up to benefit exhaustion and stay high thereafter. Meanwhile, reservation wages should decrease up to benefit exhaustion and stay low thereafter. To test these predictions, we link administrative registers to data on job search behavior from a major online job search platform in France. We follow over 400,000 workers, as long as they remain unemployed. We analyze the changes in search behavior around benefits exhaustion and take two steps to isolate the individual response to unemployment benefits. First, our longitudinal data allows us to correct for changes in sample composition over the spell. Second, we exploit data on workers eligible for 12–24 months of UI as well as workers ineligible for UI, to control for behavior changes over the unemployment spell that are independent of UI. Our results confirm the predictions of search models. We find that search effort (the number of job applications) increases by at least 50% during the year preceding benefits exhaustion and remains high thereafter. The target monthly wage decreases by at least 2.4% during the year preceding benefits exhaustion and remains low thereafter. In addition, we provide evidence for duration dependence: workers decrease the wage they target by 1.5% over each year of unemployment, irrespective of their UI status.
參考文獻(xiàn)：Ioana Marinescu, Daphné Skandalis, Unemployment Insurance and Job Search Behavior, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 136, Issue 2, May 2021, Pages 887–931,
6、信念運(yùn)動芥丧、不確定性減少和理性更新
當(dāng)一個貝葉斯學(xué)會了新的信息并改變她的信念時(shí)紧阔，她必須同時(shí)對世界的狀態(tài)更加確信。因此续担，貝葉斯很少會在保持相對不確定的情況下頻繁地改變信仰擅耽，或者相反地，在信仰運(yùn)動相對較少的情況下變得非常自信物遇。我們通過制定具體的運(yùn)動措施和減少不確定性使得貝葉斯的信念隨時(shí)間變化來確定這種直覺乖仇，表明這些措施在期望上是相等的，并為貝葉斯性創(chuàng)建相應(yīng)的統(tǒng)計(jì)測試询兴。然后乃沙，我們展示了這兩個核心概念和四種常見的心理偏差之間的聯(lián)系，這表明該測試可能特別擅長檢測這些偏差诗舰。我們通過模擬我們的測試和其他鞅測試的性能來支持這一結(jié)論警儒。最后，我們將測試應(yīng)用于個人眶根、算法和市場信念的數(shù)據(jù)集蜀铲。
When a Bayesian learns new information and changes her beliefs, she must on average become concomitantly more certain about the state of the world. Consequently, it is rare for a Bayesian to frequently shift beliefs substantially while remaining relatively uncertain, or, conversely, become very confident with relatively little belief movement. We formalize this intuition by developing specific measures of movement and uncertainty reduction given a Bayesian’s changing beliefs over time, showing that these measures are equal in expectation and creating consequent statistical tests for Bayesianess. We then show connections between these two core concepts and four common psychological biases, suggesting that the test might be particularly good at detecting these biases. We provide support for this conclusion by simulating the performance of our test and other martingale tests. Finally, we apply our test to data sets of individual, algorithmic, and market beliefs.
參考文獻(xiàn)：Ned Augenblick, Matthew Rabin, Belief Movement, Uncertainty Reduction, and Rational Updating, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 136, Issue 2, May 2021, Pages 933–985
7、融合會改變性別態(tài)度嗎?將女性隨機(jī)分配到傳統(tǒng)的男性團(tuán)隊(duì)中的影響
我們研究了在傳統(tǒng)上由男性主導(dǎo)的環(huán)境中融合男性女性是否可以改變男性對混合性別生產(chǎn)力属百、性別角色和性別認(rèn)同的態(tài)度记劝。我們的背景是挪威的軍隊(duì)，在新兵訓(xùn)練營中族扰，我們隨機(jī)地將女性新兵分配到一些班厌丑，而不是其他班钳恕。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，與女性一起生活和工作八周會讓男性有更平等的態(tài)度蹄衷。14%以上的男人認(rèn)為混合性別團(tuán)隊(duì)的表現(xiàn)與同性團(tuán)隊(duì)一樣好或更好,認(rèn)為家務(wù)應(yīng)該平等分擔(dān)的男性增加了8%忧额，而不完全否認(rèn)女性特征的男性增加了14%。此外愧口，男女混合團(tuán)隊(duì)中的男性更有可能在女性比例較高的新兵訓(xùn)練營結(jié)束后立即選擇軍事職業(yè)睦番。但是一旦干預(yù)停止，這些影響就不會持續(xù)耍属。在為期六個月的跟蹤調(diào)查中托嚣，接受干預(yù)的男性的態(tài)度與對照組的態(tài)度趨于一致，而且厚骗，對于結(jié)束兵役后女性比例更高的學(xué)習(xí)領(lǐng)域示启、職業(yè)或工作場所的選擇，也沒有長期影響领舰。與許多政策制定者的預(yù)測相反夫嗓，我們沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)讓女性融入團(tuán)隊(duì)會影響男性新兵的表現(xiàn)或?qū)Ψ?wù)的滿意度，無論是在新兵訓(xùn)練營還是他們隨后的軍事任務(wù)中冲秽。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)提供了證據(jù)舍咖，證明即使在一個性別高度扭曲的環(huán)境中，性別刻板印象也具有可塑性锉桑，可以通過整合異性成員來改變排霉。但它們也表明，如果沒有持續(xù)的高強(qiáng)度暴露民轴，影響不太可能持續(xù)攻柠。
We examine whether integrating men and women in a traditionally male-dominated environment can change men's attitudes about mixed-gender productivity, gender roles, and gender identity. Our context is the military in Norway, where we randomly assigned female recruits to some squads but not others during boot camp. We find that living and working with women for eight weeks causes men to have more egalitarian attitudes. There is a 14 percentage point higher fraction of men who think mixed-gender teams perform as well or better than same-gender teams, an 8 percentage point increase in men who think household work should be shared equally, and a 14 percentage point increase in men who do not completely disavow feminine traits. Moreover, men in mixed-gender teams are more likely to choose military occupations immediately after boot camp that have a higher fraction of women in them. But these effects do not persist once treatment stops. Treated men’s attitudes converge to those of the controls in a six-month follow-up survey, and there is no long-term effect on choosing fields of study, occupations, or workplaces with a higher fraction of women after military service ends. Contrary to the predictions of many policy makers, we do not find that integrating women into squads hurt male recruits’ performance or satisfaction with service, either during boot camp or their subsequent military assignment. These findings provide evidence that even in a highly gender-skewed environment, gender stereotypes are malleable and can be altered by integrating members of the opposite sex. But they also suggest that without continuing intensive exposure, effects are unlikely to persist.
參考文獻(xiàn)：Gordon B Dahl, Andreas Kotsadam, Dan-Olof Rooth, Does Integration Change Gender Attitudes? The Effect of Randomly Assigning Women to Traditionally Male Teams, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 136, Issue 2, May 2021, Pages 987–1030
8、勞動收入占比下降的微觀解剖
美國制造業(yè)的勞動收入占比從1967年的61%下降到2012年的41%后裸。相比之下瑰钮，美國典型制造業(yè)的勞動收入占比同期上升了3%以上。利用微觀層面的數(shù)據(jù)轻抱，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了五個顯著的事實(shí):(i)自20世紀(jì)80年代以來飞涂，增加值大幅重新分配向勞動收入占比的下端;(ii)這種總體再分配并非由于進(jìn)入/退出、超級明星增長較快或大型企業(yè)降低其勞動收入占比祈搜，而是由于單位規(guī)模增長時(shí)勞動收入占比下降;(iii)低勞動收入占比企業(yè)受益于高收入的勞動生產(chǎn)率较店，而不是低工資;(iv)與同行相比，他們也享有產(chǎn)品價(jià)格溢價(jià);(v)他們的勞動收入占比只是暫時(shí)較低容燕，5到8年后會反彈梁呈。隨著時(shí)間的推移，這種短暫的模式變得越來越明顯蘸秘，增值和就業(yè)的動態(tài)越來越脫節(jié)官卡。綜上所述蝗茁，我們認(rèn)為這些事實(shí)指向了需求側(cè)力量的重要作用。
The labor share in U.S. manufacturing declined from 61% in 1967 to 41% in 2012. The labor share of the typical U.S. manufacturing establishment, in contrast, rose by over 3 percentage points during the same period. Using micro-level data, we document five salient facts: (i) since the 1980s, there has been a dramatic reallocation of value added toward the lower end of the labor share distribution; (ii) this aggregate reallocation is not due to entry/exit, to “superstars” growing faster, or to large establishments lowering their labor shares, but is instead due to units whose labor share fell as they grew in size; (iii) low labor share (LL) establishments benefit from high revenue labor productivity, not low wages; (iv) they also enjoy a product price premium relative to their peers; and (v) they have only temporarily lower labor shares that rebound after five to eight years. This transient pattern has become more pronounced over time, and the dynamics of value added and employment are increasingly disconnected. Taken together, we interpret these facts as pointing to a significant role for demand-side forces.
參考文獻(xiàn)：Matthias Kehrig, Nicolas Vincent, The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Labor Share Decline, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 136, Issue 2, May 2021, Pages 1031–1087
9寻咒、盧旺達(dá)咖啡連鎖店的競爭和關(guān)系合同
當(dāng)正式合同不能執(zhí)行哮翘，當(dāng)事人訴諸關(guān)系合同時(shí)，競爭如何影響市場結(jié)果?衡量關(guān)系契約和處理競爭內(nèi)生性的困難使這個問題不容易回答毛秘。我們通過研究盧旺達(dá)咖啡產(chǎn)業(yè)中上游農(nóng)民和下游工廠之間的關(guān)系合同來取得進(jìn)展饭寺。首先，我們確定了他們的關(guān)系契約的顯著維度叫挟，并通過對磨坊和農(nóng)民的原始調(diào)查來測量它們艰匙。其次，我們利用一個工程模型來優(yōu)化工廠的布局抹恳，以構(gòu)建一個工具员凝，隔離地理上的競爭變化。根據(jù)在集水區(qū)安置工廠的適宜性奋献，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)健霹，被更適宜區(qū)域包圍的工廠(i)面臨更多來自其他工廠的競爭，(ii)與農(nóng)民的關(guān)系合同較少秽荞，以及(iii)表現(xiàn)出更差的績效骤公。額外的競爭磨坊也(iv)減少了農(nóng)民向磨坊供應(yīng)的咖啡總量，(v)使農(nóng)民的境況變差扬跋。競爭通過增加農(nóng)民對關(guān)系合同違約的誘惑直接阻礙了關(guān)系合同，并通過減少磨坊利潤間接阻礙了關(guān)系合同凌节。
How does competition affect market outcomes when formal contracts are not enforceable and parties resort to relational contracts? Difficulties with measuring relational contracts and dealing with the endogeneity of competition have frustrated attempts to answer this question. We make progress by studying relational contracts between upstream farmers and downstream mills in Rwanda’s coffee industry. First, we identify salient dimensions of their relational contracts and measure them through an original survey of mills and farmers. Second, we take advantage of an engineering model for the optimal placement of mills to construct an instrument that isolates geographically determined variation in competition. Conditional on the suitability for mills’ placement in the catchment area, we find that mills surrounded by more suitable areas (i) face more competition from other mills, (ii) use fewer relational contracts with farmers, and (iii) exhibit worse performance. An additional competing mill also (iv) reduces the aggregate quantity of coffee supplied to mills by farmers and (v) makes farmers worse off. Competition hampers relational contracts directly by increasing farmers’ temptation to default on the relational contract and indirectly by reducing mills’ profits.
參考文獻(xiàn)：Rocco Macchiavello, Ameet Morjaria, Competition and Relational Contracts in the Rwanda Coffee Chain, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 136, Issue 2, May 2021, Pages 1089–1143
10钦听、 建設(shè)有恢復(fù)力的衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng):來自塞拉利昂和2014年埃博拉疫情的實(shí)驗(yàn)證據(jù)
人們認(rèn)為，對衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)質(zhì)量的懷疑及其隨之而來的使用不足是造成發(fā)展中國家高死亡率的原因倍奢。在流行期間朴上，當(dāng)人們選擇是否與應(yīng)對工作和一線衛(wèi)生工作者合作時(shí)，所認(rèn)為的衛(wèi)生服務(wù)質(zhì)量可能特別關(guān)鍵卒煞。改善人們對衛(wèi)生保健質(zhì)量的認(rèn)知是否能夠促進(jìn)社區(qū)健康并最終有助于控制流行病?在2014年西非埃博拉危機(jī)的背景下痪宰，我們利用塞拉利昂的實(shí)地實(shí)驗(yàn)來回答這個問題。在疫情爆發(fā)的兩年前畔裕，我們隨機(jī)將兩項(xiàng)干預(yù)措施分配給政府運(yùn)營的衛(wèi)生診所衣撬，一項(xiàng)側(cè)重于社區(qū)監(jiān)測，另一項(xiàng)向診所工作人員授予非經(jīng)濟(jì)獎勵扮饶。在埃博拉危機(jī)之前具练，這兩種干預(yù)措施都提高了診所利用率和患者滿意度。社區(qū)監(jiān)測還改善了兒童健康甜无，使5歲以下兒童的死亡人數(shù)減少了38%扛点。后來哥遮，在危機(jī)期間，這些干預(yù)措施還使埃博拉病例報(bào)告增加了62%陵究，社區(qū)監(jiān)測大大減少了與埃博拉相關(guān)的死亡眠饮。關(guān)于機(jī)制的證據(jù)表明，這兩種干預(yù)措施都改善了人們對保健質(zhì)量的感知铜邮，鼓勵患者報(bào)告埃博拉癥狀并接受醫(yī)療護(hù)理仪召。社區(qū)監(jiān)測下的健康結(jié)果的改善表明，這些變化部分反映了管理護(hù)理基本質(zhì)量的提高牲距》翟郏總的來說，我們的研究結(jié)果表明牍鞠，促進(jìn)問責(zé)制不僅能夠在正常時(shí)期改善衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)咖摹，而且可以使它們更有能力應(yīng)對緊急危機(jī)。
Skepticism about the quality of health systems and their consequent underuse are thought to contribute to high rates of mortality in the developing world. The perceived quality of health services may be especially critical during epidemics, when people choose whether to cooperate with response efforts and frontline health workers. Can improving the perceived quality of health care promote community health and ultimately help to contain epidemics? We leverage a field experiment in Sierra Leone to answer this question in the context of the 2014 West African Ebola crisis. Two years before the outbreak, we randomly assigned two interventions to government-run health clinics—one focused on community monitoring, and the other conferred nonfinancial awards to clinic staff. Prior to the Ebola crisis, both interventions increased clinic utilization and patient satisfaction. Community monitoring additionally improved child health, leading to 38% fewer deaths of children under age five. Later, during the crisis, the interventions also increased reporting of Ebola cases by 62%, and community monitoring significantly reduced Ebola-related deaths. Evidence on mechanisms suggests that both interventions improved the perceived quality of health care, encouraging patients to report Ebola symptoms and receive medical care. Improvements in health outcomes under community monitoring suggest that these changes partly reflect a rise in the underlying quality of administered care. Overall, our results indicate that promoting accountability not only has the power to improve health systems during normal times, but can also make them more resilient to emergent crises.
參考文獻(xiàn)：Darin Christensen, Oeindrila Dube, Johannes Haushofer, Bilal Siddiqi, Maarten Voors, Building Resilient Health Systems: Experimental Evidence from Sierra Leone and The 2014 Ebola Outbreak, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 136, Issue 2, May 2021, Pages 1145–1198
11难述、誰能得到第二次機(jī)會?對犯罪分子監(jiān)督的有效性和公平性
大多數(shù)罪犯在社區(qū)監(jiān)督下在家服刑萤晴，而不是在監(jiān)獄服刑。然而胁后，在監(jiān)督下店读，違反技術(shù)規(guī)則，如不支付費(fèi)用攀芯，可能導(dǎo)致監(jiān)禁屯断。違反規(guī)則的犯人占全國監(jiān)獄犯人總數(shù)的25%，在黑人罪犯中明顯更為普遍侣诺。我用北卡羅來納州的行政管理數(shù)據(jù)來檢驗(yàn)技術(shù)規(guī)則是否能有效地識別可能的再犯和遏制犯罪殖演，并研究它們對不同種族的影響。2011年對緩刑期間技術(shù)性違法的減刑改革分析顯示年鸳，如果不嚴(yán)厲處罰趴久，40%的違紀(jì)者將繼續(xù)犯罪。同樣的改革也縮小了33%的黑人和白人在監(jiān)禁率上的差距搔确，但并沒有大幅增加黑人和白人的再犯罪率差距彼棍。這些影響綜合起來表明，技術(shù)規(guī)則總體上針對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的緩刑犯膳算，但不成比例地影響了低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的黑人罪犯座硕。為了證明黑人緩刑犯更高的違法率是合理的，他們犯罪所付出的社會代價(jià)大約是白人緩刑犯的兩倍畦幢。利用北卡羅來納州數(shù)據(jù)的重復(fù)拼寫特性坎吻，我估計(jì)了一個半?yún)?shù)競爭風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型，該模型允許我區(qū)分特定類型的技術(shù)規(guī)則的影響與未觀察到的緩刑者異構(gòu)性宇葱。有關(guān)支付費(fèi)用和罰款的規(guī)定在許多州都很常見瘦真，但在標(biāo)記可能再次犯罪的人方面并沒有起到作用刊头，而且還會造成種族差異。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)說明了表面上種族中立的政策對司法系統(tǒng)種族不平等的潛在巨大影響诸尽。
Most convicted offenders serve their sentences under “community supervision” at home instead of in prison. Under supervision, however, a technical rule violation, such as not paying fees, can result in incarceration. Rule violations account for 25% of prison admissions nationally and are significantly more common among black offenders. I test whether technical rules are effective tools for identifying likely reoffenders and deterring crime and examine their disparate racial impacts using administrative data from North Carolina. Analysis of a 2011 reform reducing prison punishments for technical violations on probation reveals that 40% of rule breakers would go on to commit crimes if spared harsh punishment. The same reform also closed a 33% black-white gap in incarceration rates without substantially increasing the black-white reoffending gap. These effects combined imply that technical rules target riskier probationers overall but disproportionately affect low-risk black offenders. To justify black probationers’ higher violation rate on efficiency grounds, their crimes must be roughly twice as socially costly as that of white probationers. Exploiting the repeat spell nature of the North Carolina data, I estimate a semiparametric competing risks model that allows me to distinguish the effects of particular types of technical rules from unobserved probationer heterogeneity. Rules related to the payment of fees and fines, which are common in many states, are ineffective in tagging likely reoffenders and drive differential effects by race. These findings illustrate the potentially large influence of ostensibly race-neutral policies on racial disparities in the justice system.
參考文獻(xiàn)：Evan K Rose, Who Gets a Second Chance? Effectiveness and Equity in Supervision of Criminal Offenders, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 136, Issue 2, May 2021, Pages 1199–1253
12原杂、供應(yīng)鏈中斷:來自日本東部大地震的證據(jù)
本文利用2011年日本東部大地震的外生性和區(qū)域性，量化了投入產(chǎn)出聯(lián)系作為沖擊傳播和放大的機(jī)制您机。我們證實(shí)了由災(zāi)難引起的中斷沿著供應(yīng)鏈的上游和下游傳播穿肄，影響了受災(zāi)企業(yè)的直接和間接供應(yīng)商和客戶。使用生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的一般均衡模型际看，通過將這些傳播效應(yīng)考慮在內(nèi)咸产，我們得到了對災(zāi)難的總體宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的估計(jì)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)仲闽，地震及其后果導(dǎo)致日本的實(shí)際GDP增長率在災(zāi)后一年下降了0.47個百分點(diǎn)脑溢。
Exploiting the exogenous and regional nature of the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, this article provides a quantification of the role of input-output linkages as a mechanism for the propagation and amplification of shocks. We document that the disruption caused by the disaster propagated upstream and downstream along supply chains, affecting the direct and indirect suppliers and customers of disaster-stricken firms. Using a general equilibrium model of production networks, we then obtain an estimate for the overall macroeconomic impact of the disaster by taking these propagation effects into account. We find that the earthquake and its aftermaths resulted in a 0.47 percentage point decline in Japan’s real GDP growth in the year following the disaster.
參考文獻(xiàn)：Vasco M Carvalho, Makoto Nirei, Yukiko U Saito, Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 136, Issue 2, May 2021, Pages 1255–1321
