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燒錢嬉探，對人來說可能是很酷的，電影中小馬哥燒美鈔點(diǎn)煙成了經(jīng)典坷虑，但是當(dāng)企業(yè)也開始這么做，是性感還是危險(xiǎn)埂奈？
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Firms that burn up $1bn a year are sexy but statistically doomed
每年燒10億美元的公司很性感但是從統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)上看注定要失敗
Five outliers - Chesapeake Energy, Netflix, Nextera Energy, Tesla and Uber - have collectively lost $100bn in the past decade
五個異常值：切薩皮克能源迄损，網(wǎng)飛，新時代能源账磺，特斯拉和優(yōu)步芹敌，在過去十年間共計(jì)損失1000億美元。
【1】YVES SAINTLAURENT, Lady Gaga, David Bowie. Some people do not operate by the same rules as everyone else. Might the same be true of companies? Most bosses complain of being slaves to short-term profit targets. Yet a few flout the orthodoxy in flamboyant fashion. Consider Tesla, a maker of electric cars. This year, so far, it has missed its production targets and lost $1.8bn of free cash flow (the money firms generate after capital investment has been subtracted). No matter. If its founder Elon Musk muses aloud about driverless cars and space travel, its shares rise like a rocket—by 66% since the start of January. Tesla is one of a tiny cohort of firms with a licence to lose billions pursuing a dream. The odds of them achieving it are similar to those of aspiring pop stars and couture designers.
flout：[fla?t] v. 藐視垮抗；輕視氏捞；嘲笑
The foolish boy flout his mother's advice.
這個愚蠢的孩子輕視他母親的勸告。
orthodoxy：['??rθ?dɑ?ksi] n. 正統(tǒng)說法冒版；正教液茎；信奉正教
He had remained true to the old orthodoxy.
他一直忠實(shí)格守古老的正統(tǒng)觀念。
flamboyant：[fl?m?b???nt] adj.艷麗的辞嗡；火焰似的捆等；過分華麗的 n.鳳凰木；火焰色紅花
subtract：[s?b'tr?kt] v. 減去续室；減少
muse：[mju?z] v. 沉思栋烤；冥想 n. 沉思
cohort：[?ko?h?:rt] n.（古羅馬軍隊(duì)的）步兵大隊(duì)，軍隊(duì)挺狰；一群人
odds：[?dz] n. 機(jī)率明郭；可能性；差別丰泊；投注賠率薯定；讓步；優(yōu)勢
伊夫?圣羅蘭瞳购，Lady Gaga沉唠，大衛(wèi)?鮑伊，總有一些人行事與眾不同苛败。公司也可以這樣嗎满葛？大部分老板常抱怨自己是短期利潤目標(biāo)的奴隸。然而罢屈，有一些人用一種招搖的方式表達(dá)了對這種正統(tǒng)規(guī)則的蔑視嘀韧。想想電動汽車制造商特斯拉，今年缠捌，到目前為止锄贷，它沒有實(shí)現(xiàn)其生產(chǎn)目標(biāo)译蒂，還損失了18億美元的自由現(xiàn)金流（企業(yè)扣除了資本投資后的生產(chǎn)值）。不要緊谊却，只要該公司創(chuàng)始人伊隆?馬斯克在自言自語時大聲一點(diǎn)柔昼，說些無人駕駛的汽車、太空旅行什么的炎辨，該公司的股票就會像火箭一樣上升捕透，實(shí)際上一月以來其股價(jià)已經(jīng)上升了66%。這類企業(yè)是一個很小的群體碴萧，它們被允許在追求夢想的過程中損失數(shù)十億美元乙嘀，特斯拉是其中一員。它們實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo)的概率破喻，就和那些有抱負(fù)的流行明星和時裝設(shè)計(jì)師能成功的概率差不多虎谢。
［2］Investing today for profits tomorrow is what capitalism is all about. Amazon lost $4bn in 2012-14 while building an empire that now makes money. Nonetheless, it is rare for big companies to sustain heavy losses just to expand fast. If you examine the members of the Russell 1000 index of large American firms, only 25 of them, or 3.3%, lost over $1bn of free cash flow in 2016 (all figures exclude financial firms and are based on Bloomberg data). In 2007 the share was 1.4% and in 1997, under 1%. Most billion-dollar losers today are energy firms temporarily in the doldrums as they adjust to a recent plunge in oil prices. Their losses are an accident.
capitalism：[?k?p?tl??z?m] n.資本主義（制度）；資本（或財(cái)富）的擁有
sustain：[s?'ste?n] vt. 支持曹质；承受婴噩；維持；認(rèn)可羽德；經(jīng)受
free cash flow：自由現(xiàn)金流
temporarily：[temp??rer?l?] adv.暫時地讳推；臨時地
in the doldrums：無精打采；意氣消沉玩般；蕭條
The economy is in the doldrums.
經(jīng)濟(jì)正處于蕭條期银觅。
plunge：[pl?nd?] n. 猛跌，驟降坏为， 驟減
資本主義的本質(zhì)就是今天投資以求明天獲利究驴。2012-2014年，亞馬遜損失了40億美元匀伏，建立起今天盈利的企業(yè)集團(tuán)洒忧。雖然如此，大公司僅僅為了快速擴(kuò)張而承受巨大損失仍然是罕見的够颠。如果你調(diào)查過美國大型企業(yè)的羅素1000指數(shù)的成員熙侍，就會發(fā)現(xiàn)2016年只有25家或者說3.3%的企業(yè)自由現(xiàn)金流損失超過10億（所有數(shù)據(jù)均來源于彭博社，且不包括金融公司）履磨。2007年這類公司的比例是1.4%蛉抓，1997年低于1%。今天剃诅，損失數(shù)十億美元的大部分是能源公司巷送，它們在適應(yīng)最近油價(jià)的暴跌，暫時處于低迷狀態(tài)矛辕。它們的損失是意外情況笑跛。
［3］But a few firms love life in the fast lane. Netflix, Uber and Tesla are tech companies that say their (largely unproven) business models will transform industries. Two others stand out for the sheer persistence of their losses. Chesapeake Energy, a fracking firm at the heart of America’s shale revolution, has lost at least $1bn of free cash flow a year for an incredible 14 years in a row. Nextera Energy, a utility that runs wind and solar plants, and which investors value highly, has managed 12 years on the trot.
in the fast lane：在生活的快車道上付魔；快節(jié)奏的(生活)；豐富刺激的(生活)
He was enjoying life in the fast lane.
他盡情享受著豐富多彩的生活飞蹂。
persistence：[p?r's?st?ns] n. 堅(jiān)持几苍；毅力
fracking：水力壓裂法，液壓破碎法
shale：[?e?l] n. 頁巖陈哑；泥板巖
on the trot：接連地妻坝；一個接一個
但有些公司喜歡快節(jié)奏的生活。網(wǎng)飛芥颈、優(yōu)步和特斯拉都是科技公司惠勒，這些公司稱他們（大部分尚未證實(shí)）的商業(yè)模式會改變產(chǎn)業(yè)赚抡。另外兩家公司因?yàn)槠鋼p失的持久性而顯得突出爬坑。切薩皮克能源是一家水力壓裂技術(shù)公司，處于美國頁巖革命的核心涂臣。難以置信的是盾计，它已經(jīng)連續(xù)14年每年至少損失10億美元自由現(xiàn)金流。新時代能源是一家運(yùn)行風(fēng)力和太陽能發(fā)電廠的公用事業(yè)公司赁遗，受到投資者的高度重視署辉，它也已經(jīng)連續(xù)12年處于這種狀態(tài)了。
［4］Collectively these five firms have burned $100bn in the past decade, yet they boast a total market value of about $300bn. Combining punchy valuations with massive losses means taking the entrepreneurial art form to a dizzying extreme. Steve Jobs, Apple’s co-founder, was said to have a “reality distortion field” that allowed him to bend the perception of others (although Apple itself was fairly timorous, losing just $874m in its worst year, in 1993). The experience of the five suggests that bending reality today has three elements: a vision, fast growth, and financing.
collectively：[k?'lekt?vl?] adv.全體地岩四，共同地
punchy：[?p?nt?i] adj.言簡意賅的哭尝；簡潔有力的；生氣勃勃的剖煌；有分量的
entrepreneurial：[??ntr?pr?'n?:r??l] adj.創(chuàng)業(yè)的材鹦，具有企業(yè)精神的；企業(yè)
dizzying：[?d?zi??] adj.令人昏亂的耕姊，燦爛的
perception：[p?r?sep?n] n.知覺桶唐；觀念；覺察（力）
timorous：[?t?m?r?s] adj.膽怯的茉兰，羞怯的
vision：['v??n] n. 視力尤泽；視覺；幻覺规脸；眼光 v. 幻想坯约；設(shè)想
過去十年間，這五家公司總計(jì)燒了得有1000億美元莫鸭，但是其市值總和大約3000億美元鬼店。高額的估值和巨大的損失結(jié)合在一起，可謂是把創(chuàng)業(yè)的藝術(shù)形式達(dá)到了一種令人目眩的極端黔龟。蘋果創(chuàng)始人之一史蒂夫?喬布斯被稱為有一種“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場”妇智，讓他能扭轉(zhuǎn)別人的觀念（盡管蘋果本身是相當(dāng)膽怯的滥玷，它最糟糕的一年1993年也只損失了8.74億美元）。這五家公司的經(jīng)歷表明今天的現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場需要三個因素：一個愿景巍棱、快速增長和融資能力惑畴。
［5］Take the vision thing first. A charismatic leader with a world-changing plan is de rigueur. For its first 23 years Chesapeake was led by Aubrey McClendon, a cocky Oklahoman who pioneered the process of blasting rocks to extract gas and oil (he died last year in a high-speed car crash). Reed Hastings at Netflix plans to destroy the conventional TV industry by selling films and shows over the internet. Like Mr Musk, Travis Kalanick, Uber’s tarnished former boss, dreams of changing how humans travel. Nextera is led by technocrats but their aim is grandiose—to usher in a new generation of energy technology.
charismatic：[?k?r?z?m?t?k] adj.有魅力的；神賜能力的
de rigueur：[d?ri?ɡ?r] adj.社交禮節(jié)上需要的航徙；按照習(xí)俗如贷；按照時尚
cocky：['k?ki] adj. 驕傲的；自大的到踏；太過自信的
pioneer：[?pa??'n??(r)] n. 先鋒杠袱；開拓者；先驅(qū) v. 開辟窝稿；首倡
extract：['ekstr?kt] vt. 摘錄楣富；提取伴榔；拔出纹蝴；榨出 n. 摘錄；精華踪少；榨出物
tarnish：['tɑrn??] v.玷污塘安；使喪失光澤；使變色援奢；(喪)失(光)澤 n.晦暗兼犯；表面變色；污點(diǎn)
technocrat：[?tekn?kr?t] n.技術(shù)專家集漾，專家政治論者切黔，技術(shù)統(tǒng)治論者
grandiose：['ɡr?ndi??s] adj. 宏偉的；壯觀的帆竹；浮夸的
usher：['???r] n. 帶位員绕娘；招待員 vt. 引導(dǎo)；引入栽连；做招待险领；擔(dān)任引座員
先說愿景，必須有一個魅力超凡的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者秒紧，并且此人有一個改變世界的計(jì)劃绢陌。切薩皮克能源起初的23年是由奧布里?麥克倫登領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的，奧布里是一個狂妄自大的俄克拉荷馬州人熔恢，他首創(chuàng)了通過爆破巖石來提取石油和天然氣（此人去年死于一場高速車禍）脐湾。網(wǎng)飛的雷德?哈斯汀斯計(jì)劃通過網(wǎng)上銷售電影和綜藝節(jié)目來摧毀傳統(tǒng)電視行業(yè)。和馬斯克先生一樣叙淌，優(yōu)步聲名狼藉的前任老板特拉維斯?卡蘭尼克夢想于改變?nèi)藗兂鲂械姆绞匠诱啤Ｐ聲r代能源是由技術(shù)專家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的愁铺，但是他們的目的非常宏偉——開創(chuàng)新一代能源技術(shù)。
［6］The vision needs to be validated by runaway growth. Often firms emphasise a flattering operating measure, such as oil and gas pumped from the ground, the number of rides hailed and so on. Investors need to believe in a high “terminal value”, a point in the future when high, stable profits will arrive. So it helps to show that, hypothetically, profits would gush if breakneck growth were to stop. Uber says it is profitable in cities where it has operated longest, such as San Francisco. Nextera says that if it stopped investing in new capacity, it would make $6bn of free cash flow a year. Netflix amortises the cost of content over periods of up to five years, so reports an accounting profit even as it bleeds cash.
validate：['v?l?de?t] vt. 使生效闻鉴；證實(shí)茵乱；確認(rèn)；驗(yàn)證
runaway：['r?n?we?] n. 逃跑者孟岛；逃亡 adj. 逃跑的瓶竭；失控的；迅速的
pump：[p?mp] n. 泵渠羞；抽水機(jī)斤贰；打氣筒；抽水 v. 打氣次询；灌輸荧恍；抽取渗蟹；增加
hypothetically：[?ha?p?'θet?kl?] adv.假設(shè)地块饺，假想地
gush：[ɡ??] v.噴涌赞辩；迸出 n.涌出雌芽；迸發(fā)
breakneck：['bre?knek] adj. 非常危險(xiǎn)的；極快的
capacity：[k?'p?s?ti] n. 容量辨嗽；容積世落；能力；職位
amortise：[?'m?:ta?z] v.分期償還糟需，攤還（債款）
這種愿景需要通過飛速的增長來驗(yàn)證屉佳。企業(yè)通常會重視一種討人喜歡的操作手法，像是從地上抽取的石油和天然氣洲押、受歡迎車程的數(shù)目等等武花。投資者需要相信未來出現(xiàn)高額穩(wěn)定的利潤時可以獲得一個高的“終值”。所以杈帐，它有助于證明体箕，假想情況下高速增長停止時利潤會大量涌出。優(yōu)步說在那些已經(jīng)運(yùn)行很久的城市例如舊金山挑童，自己是盈利的累铅。新時代能源說，如果它停止對新增效益的投資站叼，一年就能制造60億美元的自由現(xiàn)金流娃兽。新時代在長達(dá)五年的時間內(nèi)分期償還內(nèi)容成本，以報(bào)告出會計(jì)利潤尽楔，即使它在流失現(xiàn)金投储。
［7］The third element is financing to pay for huge cumulative losses. Each of the five firms has been a financial innovator, taking advantage of cheap money and growth-hungry investors. Uber has tapped private capital markets, Nextera has structured part of its business as a partnership, Tesla has taken deposits from customers and also trades environmental tax credits. Chesapeake Energy sparked Wall Street’s lust for shale junk bonds, and Netflix has signed commitments to make $14bn of future payments to studios and artists to buy creative content.
cumulative：[?kju:mj?le?t?v] adj.累積的第练；漸增的，追加的
innovator：['?n?ve?t?(r)] n. 改革者玛荞；刷新者
deposit：[d?'p?z?t] v. 放置复旬；(使)沉淀；存儲冲泥；寄存 n. 存款驹碍；定金；堆積物
junk bonds：垃圾債券凡恍，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)債券（利息高志秃，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大，用于集資建立嚼酝、收購新公司等）
第三個因素是融資以償還累積的巨額損失浮还。這五家公司都是金融創(chuàng)新者，利用了低息貸款和渴望增長的投資者闽巩。優(yōu)步開發(fā)了私人資本市場钧舌，新時代能源將其部分業(yè)務(wù)變成了合營，特斯拉從顧客處獲得存款涎跨，并進(jìn)行了環(huán)境稅收抵免的交易洼冻。切薩皮克能源引發(fā)了華爾街對頁巖垃圾債券的強(qiáng)烈欲望，而新時代已經(jīng)簽署了承諾——未來向工作室和藝術(shù)家們支付140億美元以購買其創(chuàng)意內(nèi)容隅很。
［8］So sustaining a reality distortion field is possible, but the longer it goes on for, the harder it gets. More capital has to be raised and, in order to justify it, the bigger the firm’s projected ultimate size—its terminal value—has to be. Fast growth puts huge strain on managers. At some point the edifice can come tumbling down. The five companies described here have $60bn of borrowings, and one, Chesapeake, is struggling with its debt load.
distortion：[d?'st???n] n. 扭曲撞牢；變形；曲解
ultimate：['?lt?m?t] adj. 根本的叔营；極限的屋彪；最后的；終極的 n. 終極绒尊；極品畜挥；根本
edifice：[?ed?f?s] n. 大廈；宏偉建筑
tumble down：(建筑物)搖搖欲墜婴谱，倒塌
所以維持一個現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場是可能的蟹但，但是其持續(xù)時間越長，就越難起作用勘究。為了證明這一點(diǎn)矮湘，必須籌措更多的資金，企業(yè)的預(yù)計(jì)最終規(guī)目诟猓——其終值——也必須更大缅阳。快速增長給管理人帶來巨大壓力。大廈會在某一時刻倒塌十办。這里提到的五家公司有600億借款秀撇，其中之一的切薩皮克能源還在債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)下苦不堪言。
Poker face
撲克臉
［9］A few firms other than Amazon have defied the odds. Over the past 20 years Las Vegas Sands, a casino firm, Royal Caribbean, a cruise-line company, and Micron Technology, a chip-maker, each lost $1bn or more for two consecutive years and went on to prosper. But the chances of success are slim. Of the current members of the Russell 1000 index, since 1997 only 37 have lost $1bn or more for at least two years in a row. Of these, 21 still lose money.
casino：[k?'si?n??] n. 娛樂場向族；賭場
consecutive：[k?n'sekj?t?v] adj. 連續(xù)的呵燕；連貫的
prosper：['prɑ?sp?r] vi. 繁盛；成功件相；興旺
in a row：連續(xù)再扭，一連
除了亞馬遜以外，有幾家公司已經(jīng)有所突破夜矗。在過去的20年里泛范，經(jīng)營賭場的拉斯維加斯金沙公司，郵輪運(yùn)營商皇家加勒比公司紊撕，芯片制造商美光科技公司罢荡，他們都曾在連續(xù)兩年內(nèi)損失了10億美元或更多，卻持續(xù)興旺著对扶。但是成功的機(jī)會很小区赵。1997年以來，在羅素1000指數(shù)當(dāng)前成員中浪南，只有37家公司連續(xù)兩年以上每年至少虧損10億美元笼才。其中21家現(xiàn)在還在虧損。
［10］To justify their valuations, the five firms examined by Schumpeter must grow their sales by an estimated 8-33% each year for a decade. Based on the record of all American companies since 1950, and the five firms’ present revenue levels, the probability of this happening ranges between 0.1% and 25%, using statistical tables from Credit Suisse, a bank.
這幾家熊彼特審查過的公司要想證明自己的價(jià)值逞泄，每年的預(yù)計(jì)銷售額增長必須在8%-33%間患整，保持十年拜效。使用瑞士信貸銀行統(tǒng)計(jì)表估計(jì)喷众，根據(jù)1950年以來所有美國公司的記錄和這五家公司目前的收入水平，這種情況發(fā)生的可能性介于0.1%至25%之間紧憾。
［11］Firms that burn piles of cash are often lionised in an era when growth is sluggish and few companies reinvest all their profits. But losing a billion dollars or more a year is a wildly risky affair and the odds are that such businesses will fall flat. This should not be a surprise—hardly anyone can pull off building a fashion empire around androgyny, wearing a raw meat dress to an awards ceremony, or singing about life on Mars.
lionise：['la??na?z] v. 把（某人）視為名人到千；把（某人）當(dāng)成要人對待
sluggish：['sl?ɡ??] adj. 緩慢的；懶惰的赴穗；遲鈍的憔四；蕭條的；無精打采的
reinvest：[?ri:?n'vest] vt. 再投資于般眉，再授給
androgyny：[?n'dr?d??n?] n. 雌雄同體了赵；雌雄同體性
在一個增長遲緩很少有公司將所有利潤用于再投資的時代，燒了大量現(xiàn)金的公司常常受到追捧甸赃。但是每年損失十億美元甚至更多仍然非常危險(xiǎn)柿汛，這樣的企業(yè)很可能會失敗。這一點(diǎn)也不奇怪埠对，幾乎沒有人能在雙性同體的基礎(chǔ)上建立一個時尚帝國络断，穿著生肉禮服參加頒獎典禮裁替，或者在火星上歌唱生活。
所謂的燒錢貌笨，其實(shí)是公司選擇的一種經(jīng)營策略弱判，這些公司愿意冒著高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)橄嘈趴梢垣@得更大的收益锥惋。然而如文中所說昌腰，從統(tǒng)計(jì)上講這種行為失敗的概率更大，即使具備那三個因素膀跌，企業(yè)想要維持下去也是困難的剥哑。一將功成萬骨枯，在成功挺過虧損的亞馬遜背后淹父，是許多沒能見到曙光就“流血而死”的企業(yè)株婴，對于大部分公司來說，還是穩(wěn)扎穩(wěn)打的好暑认。
英文原文：
http://www.economist.com
講解：霞姐 / Tiassa / Angel
編排 / 校對：Angel
本次文章翻譯為魔力學(xué)院原創(chuàng)
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