本篇講的是英國首相特蕾莎梅的退歐方案再一次被否決,隨著還剩兩周的脫歐時間共啃,目前的進度很是讓人擔憂巫员,甚至很有可能采取“裸脫”返帕。
When historians come to write the tale of Britain’s at tempts to leave the European Union, this week may be seen as the moment the country finally grasped the mess it was in. In the campaign, Leavers had promised voters that Brexit would be easy because Britain “holds all the cards”. This week Parliament was so scornful of the exit deal that Theresa May had spent two years negotiating and renegotiating in Brussels that MPS(member of parliament國會議員) threw it out for a second time, by 149 votes—the fourth-biggest government defeat in modern parliamentary history. The next day MPS rejected what had once been her back-up plan of simply walking out without a deal. The prime minister has lost control. On Wednesday four cabinet ministers failed to back her in a crucial vote. Both main parties, long divided over Brexit, are seeing their factions splintering into ever-angrier sub-factions. And all this just two weeks before exit day.
當歷史學家寫到英國試圖脫歐的傳說時,本周也許會被視為英國終于發(fā)現(xiàn)了自己處于一團亂麻情景的時刻迟螺。在這場戰(zhàn)役中冲秽,主張脫歐的人向投票者承諾脫歐很簡單,因為英國掌握著一切煮仇。而本周議會對特蕾莎梅在布魯塞爾用兩年時間談判的退出方案嗤之以鼻劳跃,國會議員也再一次以149名投票反對的方式將這個方案廢棄,這是現(xiàn)代國會歷史上第四大的政府失敗記錄浙垫。第二天國會議員也反對了特蕾莎梅的備用計劃:裸脫歐刨仑。首相已經無法控制局面了。周三四位內閣部長也沒有在這關鍵的投票中支持她夹姥。在脫歐方案分歧已久的兩黨杉武,看著他們的內訌分裂的越來越大。所有這些都是發(fā)生在脫歐日的兩周前辙售。
Even by the chaotic standards of the three years since the referendum, the country is lost (see Britain section). Mrs May boasted this week of “send[ing] a message to the whole world about the sort of country the United Kingdom will be”. She is not wrong: it is a laughing-stock. An unflappable place supposedly built on compromise and a stiff upper lip(堅硬的上嘴唇轻抱,指的是堅定沉著、感情不外露旦部,典型的英國人形象) is consumed by accusations of treachery and betrayal. Yet the demolition of her plan offers Britain a chance to rethink its misguided approach to leaving the eu. Mrs May has made the worst of a bad job. This week’s chaos gives the country a shot at coming up with something better.
在公投后三年的混亂局面中祈搜,這個國家已經失去了控制。特蕾莎梅曾經吹噓道:“本周是向整個世界宣示英國會變成什么樣的國家的一周士八∪菅啵”她沒說錯,英國會變成一個笑柄婚度。一個穩(wěn)定的國家應該建立在退讓以及在被背叛指控下仍堅定沉著的特質下蘸秘。但她的計劃的失敗給了英國一個重新思考它是否以錯誤的方式離開了歐盟的機會。特蕾莎已經對這份壞工作做了最壞的準備,而本周的混亂給予了這個國家想出更好方式的啟發(fā)醋虏。
The immediate consequence of the rebellion in Westminster(威斯敏斯特寻咒,英國議會所在地) is that Brexit must be delayed. As we went to press, Parliament was to vote for an extension of the March 29th deadline. For its own sake the eu should agree. A no-deal Brexit would hurt Britain grievously, but it would also hurt the eu—and Ireland as grievously as Britain.?
英國議會反抗的目前后果就是英國脫歐必須延期。在本期刊發(fā)布的時候颈嚼,議會正在投票是否延期三月二十九號的最后期限毛秘。為了他們自己,歐盟也應該統(tǒng)一粘舟。無協(xié)議脫歐不僅會嚴重傷害英國和愛爾蘭熔脂,也會傷害到歐盟。
Mrs May’s plan is to hold yet another vote on her deal and to cudgel Brexiteers into supporting it by threatening them with a long extension that she says risks the cancellation of Brexit altogether. At the same time she will twist the arms of moderates by pointing out that a no-deal Brexit could still happen, because avoiding it depends on the agreement of the eu, which is losing patience. It is a desperate tactic from a prime minister who has lost her authority. It forces MPS to choose between options they find wretched when they are convinced that better alternatives are available. Even if it succeeds, it would deprive Britain of the stable.
特蕾莎梅的計劃是再次發(fā)起對她的提案的投票柑肴,并通過威脅脫歐派說長時間的延期也許就會導致脫歐的失敗霞揉,來要求/強迫他們支持該提案。同時她也會指出無協(xié)議脫歐可能會發(fā)生晰骑,因為這取決于正在逐漸失去耐心的歐盟的想法适秩,這將會改變中間派的投票。對于失去了自己權力的首相來說硕舆,實施這種策略是無奈之舉秽荞。這會強迫議員們在壞方案以及更好的選項中進行選擇。即使這個方案成功了抚官,也會導致英國陷入不穩(wěn)定的環(huán)境扬跋,
To overcome the impasse created by today’s divisions, Britain needs a long extension. The question is how to use it to forge that stable, consenting majority in Parliament and the country.?
為了打破現(xiàn)在分歧的僵局,英國需要一個長期的延期凌节。問題是如何說服國家和議會中的大部分人钦听,來創(chuàng)造穩(wěn)定的環(huán)境。
An increasingly popular answer is: get rid of Mrs May. The prime minister’s deal has flopped and her authority is shot. A growing number of Tories(英國保守黨的黨員) believe that a new leader with a new mandate could break the logjam (see Bagehot). Yet there is a high risk that Conservative Party members would install a replacement who takes the country towards an ultra-hard Brexit. What’s more, replacing Mrs May would do little to solve the riddle of how to put together a deal. The parties are fundamentally split. To believe that a new tenant in Downing Street could put them back together again and engineer a majority is to believe the Brexiteers’ fantasy that theirs is a brilliant project that is merely being badly executed.?
現(xiàn)在比較流行的答案就是:讓特蕾莎梅下臺倍奢。特蕾莎梅的提案被拒朴上,權力被削。越來越多的保守黨成員認為一個新的領導人會打破目前的僵局卒煞。但是保守黨派也有很大的風險會引入一個帶領國家走向極度困難脫歐方向的人痪宰。并且,只替換特蕾莎對于解決問題沒有什么幫助畔裕。黨派已經徹底地分裂了衣撬。相信唐寧街新房客會重新將黨派集聚在一起并且領導大部分人,就相當于相信脫歐黨派他們那自認為完美扮饶、但實際上幾乎無法實行的幻想一樣淮韭。
Calls for a general election are equally misguided. The country is as divided as the parties. Britain could go through its fourth poll in as many years only to end up where it started. Tory MPS might fall into line if they had been elected on a manifesto promising to enact the deal. But would the Conservatives really go into an election based on Mrs May’s scheme, which has twice been given a drubbing by MPS and was described this week even by one supportive Tory mp as “the best turd that we have”? It does not have the ring of a successful campaign.
對于公投的呼聲也基本是被誤導了的,這個國家就像它的黨派一樣分裂了贴届。英國可以像多年前開始的時候一樣通過第四次公投將其結束。如果保守黨成員依靠承諾保證協(xié)議的達成,他們也可能會站在統(tǒng)一戰(zhàn)線毫蚓。但在特蕾莎梅的方案被國會議員兩次否決占键,甚至被一位保守黨議員形容為‘我們有的最好的屎’的情況下,保守人士真的會參加選舉嗎元潘?其實他們并沒有拿下成功選舉的能力畔乙。
To break the logjam, Mrs May needs to do two things. The first is to consult Parliament, in a series of indicative votes that will reveal what form of Brexit can command a majority. The second is to call a referendum to make that choice legitimate. Today every faction sticks to its red lines, claiming to be speaking for the people. Only this combination can put those arguments to rest.?
為了打破僵局,梅女士需要做兩件事:第一件是咨詢議會翩概,目前的投票情況反映了什么樣的形式可以說服大多數(shù)人支持脫歐牲距。第二件是發(fā)起使該項形式合法的公投。如今每個派系都堅守他們的最后底線钥庇,并聲稱是為人民著想牍鞠。只有這兩件事才能讓這些爭吵歇一歇。
Take these steps in turn. Despite the gridlock, the outlines of a parliamentary compromise are visible. Labour wants permanent membership of the eu’s customs union, which is a bit closer to the eu than Mrs May’s deal. Alternatively, mps may favour a Norway-style setup—which this newspaper has argued for and would keep Britain in the single market. The eu is open to both. Only if Mrs May cannot establish a consensus should she return to her own much-criticised plan.
逐步實施這些方案评姨。盡管目前是僵局难述,但議會的妥協(xié)已經可以預見了。工黨想要歐盟關稅同盟的永久會員資格吐句,這比起梅女士的方案來說更接近于歐盟胁后。或者議員們可能會喜歡一種挪威風格的方式嗦枢,我們雜志已經討論過這種風格攀芯,認為挪威風格會使英國限制在單一市場中。歐盟對于兩種方案都支持文虏,只有當梅女士不能建立一個共識的時候侣诺,她才能選擇她自己飽受爭議的計劃。
Getting votes for these or any other approach would require thinking beyond party lines. That does not come naturally in Britain’s adversarial, majoritarian policies. But the whipping system is breaking down. Party structures are fraying.?
給這些或其他的方案投票需要在黨派的角度之外思考,這并不會在對抗性的择葡、多數(shù)黨派的政策下自然發(fā)生紧武。但是這種政黨系統(tǒng)正在解體,黨派結構正在逐漸分解敏储。脫離的