人工智能時代已經(jīng)開始/The Age of AI has begun

Artificial intelligence is as revolutionary as mobile phones and the Internet.
人工智能就像移動電話和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)一樣具有革命性臀玄。

By Bill Gates | March 21, 2023
作者：比爾-蓋茨｜2023年3月21日

譯者語：人工智能時代已經(jīng)來臨瞒御，并已經(jīng)進入我們的工作生活之中。本文即是使用人工智能技術(shù)進行翻譯的，幾乎和專業(yè)翻譯人員翻譯的一樣好赢底。由于本人時間有限，翻譯內(nèi)容逐步更新缚态。

In my lifetime, I’ve seen two demonstrations of technology that struck me as revolutionary.
在我的一生中扮碧，我見過兩次令我印象深刻的技術(shù)演示趟章，都是革命性的。

The first time was in 1980, when I was introduced to a graphical user interface—the forerunner of every modern operating system, including Windows. I sat with the person who had shown me the demo, a brilliant programmer named Charles Simonyi, and we immediately started brainstorming about all the things we could do with such a user-friendly approach to computing. Charles eventually joined Microsoft, Windows became the backbone of Microsoft, and the thinking we did after that demo helped set the company’s agenda for the next 15 years.
第一次是在1980年慎王，當時我被介紹給一個圖形用戶界面--包括Windows在內(nèi)的每一個現(xiàn)代操作系統(tǒng)的前身蚓土。我和給我看演示的人坐在一起，一個名叫查爾斯-西蒙尼（Charles Simonyi）的杰出程序員赖淤，我們立即開始集思廣益蜀漆，討論我們可以用這樣一種用戶友好的計算方法來做的所有事情。查爾斯最終加入了微軟咱旱，Windows成為了微軟的支柱确丢，而我們在那次演示之后所做的思考幫助我們確定了公司未來15年的議程。

The second big surprise came just last year. I’d been meeting with the team from OpenAI since 2016 and was impressed by their steady progress. In mid-2022, I was so excited about their work that I gave them a challenge: train an artificial intelligence to pass an Advanced Placement biology exam. Make it capable of answering questions that it hasn’t been specifically trained for. (I picked AP Bio because the test is more than a simple regurgitation of scientific facts—it asks you to think critically about biology.) If you can do that, I said, then you’ll have made a true breakthrough.
第二個大驚喜就在去年發(fā)生吐限。自2016年以來鲜侥，我一直在與來自O(shè)penAI的團隊會面，他們的穩(wěn)步進展給我留下了深刻印象毯盈。2022年中期剃毒，我對他們的工作感到非常興奮病袄，于是我給了他們一個挑戰(zhàn)：訓練一個人工智能來通過高級生物學考試搂赋。讓它有能力回答那些沒有經(jīng)過專門訓練的問題。(我選擇AP生物考試是因為該考試不僅僅是對科學事實的簡單復述--它要求你對生物學進行批判性的思考）益缠。我說脑奠，如果你能做到這一點，那么你就取得了真正的突破幅慌。

I thought the challenge would keep them busy for two or three years. They finished it in just a few months.
我以為這個挑戰(zhàn)會讓他們忙上兩三年宋欺。他們只用了幾個月就完成了。

In September, when I met with them again, I watched in awe as they asked GPT, their AI model, 60 multiple-choice questions from the AP Bio exam—and it got 59 of them right. Then it wrote outstanding answers to six open-ended questions from the exam. We had an outside expert score the test, and GPT got a 5—the highest possible score, and the equivalent to getting an A or A+ in a college-level biology course.
9月，當我再次與他們見面時齿诞，我敬畏地看著他們向他們的人工智能模型GPT提出了AP生物考試中的60道選擇題酸休，它答對了其中的59道。然后祷杈，它為考試中的六個開放式問題寫出了出色的答案斑司。我們請外部專家為測試打分，GPT得到了5分--可能的最高分但汞，相當于在大學水平的生物課程中得到A或A+宿刮。

Once it had aced the test, we asked it a non-scientific question: “What do you say to a father with a sick child?” It wrote a thoughtful answer that was probably better than most of us in the room would have given. The whole experience was stunning.
一旦它通過了測試，我們就問它一個非科學的問題： "你對一個有病的孩子的父親說什么私蕾？" 它寫了一個深思熟慮的答案僵缺，可能比我們房間里的大多數(shù)人都要好。整個經(jīng)歷令人震驚踩叭。

I knew I had just seen the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface.
我知道我剛剛看到了自圖形用戶界面以來技術(shù)上最重要的進步磕潮。

This inspired me to think about all the things that AI can achieve in the next five to 10 years.
這啟發(fā)了我去思考人工智能在未來5到10年內(nèi)能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)的所有事情。

The development of AI is as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the Internet, and the mobile phone. It will change the way people work, learn, travel, get health care, and communicate with each other. Entire industries will reorient around it. Businesses will distinguish themselves by how well they use it.
人工智能的發(fā)展與微處理器懊纳、個人電腦揉抵、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和移動電話的誕生一樣具有根本意義。它將改變?nèi)藗児ぷ鬣头琛W習冤今、旅行、獲得醫(yī)療保健和相互溝通的方式茂缚。整個行業(yè)將圍繞它重新定位戏罢。企業(yè)將通過他們對它的利用程度來區(qū)分自己。

Philanthropy is my full-time job these days, and I’ve been thinking a lot about how—in addition to helping people be more productive—AI can reduce some of the world’s worst inequities. Globally, the worst inequity is in health: 5 million children under the age of 5 die every year. That’s down from 10 million two decades ago, but it’s still a shockingly high number. Nearly all of these children were born in poor countries and die of preventable causes like diarrhea or malaria. It’s hard to imagine a better use of AIs than saving the lives of children.
慈善事業(yè)是我最近的全職工作脚囊，我一直在思考龟糕，除了幫助人們提高生產(chǎn)力之外，人工智能如何能夠減少世界上一些最嚴重的不平等現(xiàn)象悔耘。在全球范圍內(nèi)讲岁，最嚴重的不平等現(xiàn)象是在健康方面： 每年有500萬五歲以下的兒童死亡。這比20年前的1000萬有所下降衬以，但這仍然是一個令人震驚的數(shù)字缓艳。幾乎所有這些兒童都出生在貧困國家，死于可預防的原因看峻，如腹瀉或瘧疾阶淘。很難想象人工智能有比拯救兒童生命更好的用途。

I’ve been thinking a lot about how AI can reduce some of the world’s worst inequities.
我一直在思考互妓，人工智能如何能夠減少世界上一些最嚴重的不平等現(xiàn)象溪窒。

In the United States, the best opportunity for reducing inequity is to improve education, particularly making sure that students succeed at math. The evidence shows that having basic math skills sets students up for success, no matter what career they choose. But achievement in math is going down across the country, especially for Black, Latino, and low-income students. AI can help turn that trend around.
在美國坤塞，減少不平等的最佳機會是改善教育，特別是確保學生在數(shù)學方面取得成功澈蚌。證據(jù)顯示摹芙，無論學生選擇何種職業(yè)，掌握基本的數(shù)學技能都能為他們的成功做好準備宛瞄。但全國各地的數(shù)學成績正在下降瘫辩，特別是黑人、拉丁裔和低收入學生坛悉。人工智能可以幫助扭轉(zhuǎn)這一趨勢伐厌。

Climate change is another issue where I’m convinced AI can make the world more equitable. The injustice of climate change is that the people who are suffering the most—the world’s poorest—are also the ones who did the least to contribute to the problem. I’m still thinking and learning about how AI can help, but later in this post I’ll suggest a few areas with a lot of potential.
氣候變化是另一個問題，我相信人工智能可以使世界更加公平裸影。氣候變化的不公正之處在于挣轨，受苦最深的人--世界上最貧窮的人--也是對這一問題所做貢獻最小的人。我仍然在思考和學習人工智能如何能提供幫助轩猩，但在這篇文章的后面卷扮，我將提出幾個具有很大潛力的領(lǐng)域。

In short, I'm excited about the impact that AI will have on issues that the Gates Foundation works on, and the foundation will have much more to say about AI in the coming months. The world needs to make sure that everyone—and not just people who are well-off—benefits from artificial intelligence. Governments and philanthropy will need to play a major role in ensuring that it reduces inequity and doesn’t contribute to it. This is the priority for my own work related to AI.
簡而言之均践，我對人工智能對蓋茨基金會工作的問題所產(chǎn)生的影響感到興奮晤锹，基金會在未來幾個月將有更多關(guān)于人工智能的內(nèi)容。世界需要確保每個人--而不僅僅是富裕的人--都能從人工智能中受益彤委。政府和慈善機構(gòu)將需要發(fā)揮重要作用鞭铆，確保它減少不公平，而不是助長不公平焦影。這是我自己與人工智能相關(guān)工作的優(yōu)先事項车遂。

Any new technology that’s so disruptive is bound to make people uneasy, and that’s certainly true with artificial intelligence. I understand why—it raises hard questions about the workforce, the legal system, privacy, bias, and more. AIs also make factual mistakes and experience hallucinations. Before I suggest some ways to mitigate the risks, I’ll define what I mean by AI, and I’ll go into more detail about some of the ways in which it will help empower people at work, save lives, and improve education.
任何具有顛覆性的新技術(shù)都必然會讓人們感到不安，人工智能當然也是如此斯辰。我理解原因--它提出了關(guān)于勞動力舶担、法律制度、隱私彬呻、偏見等方面的棘手問題衣陶。人工智能也會犯事實性錯誤，并經(jīng)歷幻覺闸氮。在我提出一些減輕風險的方法之前剪况，我將定義我所說的人工智能的含義，并將更詳細地介紹它將有助于增強人們的工作能力湖苞、拯救生命和改善教育的一些方式拯欧。

人工智能的定義/Defining artificial intelligence

Technically, the term artificial intelligence refers to a model created to solve a specific problem or provide a particular service. What is powering things like ChatGPT is artificial intelligence. It is learning how to do chat better but can’t learn other tasks. By contrast, the term artificial general intelligence refers to software that’s capable of learning any task or subject. AGI doesn’t exist yet—there is a robust debate going on in the computing industry about how to create it, and whether it can even be created at all.
從技術(shù)上講详囤，人工智能一詞是指為解決特定問題或提供特定服務(wù)而創(chuàng)建的模型财骨。為[ChatGPT]（https://chatgptonline.net/）這樣的東西提供動力的是人工智能镐作。它正在學習如何更好地進行聊天，但不能學習其他任務(wù)隆箩。相比之下该贾，術(shù)語artificial general intelligence指的是能夠?qū)W習任何任務(wù)或主題的軟件。AGI還不存在--計算行業(yè)正在進行一場激烈的辯論捌臊，討論如何創(chuàng)造它杨蛋，以及它是否能夠被創(chuàng)造。

Developing AI and AGI has been the great dream of the computing industry. For decades, the question was when computers would be better than humans at something other than making calculations. Now, with the arrival of machine learning and large amounts of computing power, sophisticated AIs are a reality and they will get better very fast.
開發(fā)人工智能和AGI一直是計算行業(yè)的偉大夢想理澎。幾十年來逞力，問題是計算機何時能在計算之外的其他方面比人類做得更好。現(xiàn)在糠爬，隨著機器學習和大量計算能力的到來寇荧，復雜的人工智能已經(jīng)成為現(xiàn)實，而且它們會很快變得更好执隧。

I think back to the early days of the personal computing revolution, when the software industry was so small that most of us could fit onstage at a conference. Today it is a global industry. Since a huge portion of it is now turning its attention to AI, the innovations are going to come much faster than what we experienced after the microprocessor breakthrough. Soon the pre-AI period will seem as distant as the days when using a computer meant typing at a C:> prompt rather than tapping on a screen.
我回想起個人計算革命的早期揩抡，當時的軟件行業(yè)非常小，我們中的大多數(shù)人都能在會議的舞臺上站住镀琉。今天峦嗤，它是一個全球性的產(chǎn)業(yè)。由于它的很大一部分現(xiàn)在正把注意力轉(zhuǎn)向人工智能屋摔，創(chuàng)新將比我們在微處理器突破后經(jīng)歷的要快得多烁设。很快，前人工智能時期將看起來像使用計算機意味著在C:>提示符下打字而不是在屏幕上敲擊的日子一樣遙遠钓试。

生產(chǎn)力的提高/Productivity enhancement

Although humans are still better than GPT at a lot of things, there are many jobs where these capabilities are not used much. For example, many of the tasks done by a person in sales (digital or phone), service, or document handling (like payables, accounting, or insurance claim disputes) require decision-making but not the ability to learn continuously. Corporations have training programs for these activities and in most cases, they have a lot of examples of good and bad work. Humans are trained using these data sets, and soon these data sets will also be used to train the AIs that will empower people to do this work more efficiently.
雖然人類在很多事情上仍然比GPT強署尤，但有很多工作的這些能力并不怎么用。例如亚侠，一個人在銷售（數(shù)字或電話）曹体、服務(wù)或文件處理（如應(yīng)付款、會計或保險索賠糾紛）方面所做的許多工作需要決策硝烂，但不需要持續(xù)學習的能力箕别。公司有針對這些活動的培訓計劃，在大多數(shù)情況下滞谢，他們有很多好的和壞的工作實例串稀。人類使用這些數(shù)據(jù)集進行訓練，很快這些數(shù)據(jù)集也將被用來訓練人工智能狮杨，使人們能夠更有效地完成這項工作母截。

As computing power gets cheaper, GPT’s ability to express ideas will increasingly be like having a white-collar worker available to help you with various tasks. Microsoft describes this as having a co-pilot. Fully incorporated into products like Office, AI will enhance your work—for example by helping with writing emails and managing your inbox.
隨著計算能力越來越便宜，GPT表達想法的能力將越來越像有一個白領(lǐng)工人可以幫助你完成各種任務(wù)橄教。微軟將此描述為擁有一個副駕駛清寇。完全融入Office等產(chǎn)品喘漏，人工智能將增強你的工作--例如，幫助你寫電子郵件和管理收件箱华烟。

Eventually your main way of controlling a computer will no longer be pointing and clicking or tapping on menus and dialogue boxes. Instead, you’ll be able to write a request in plain English. (And not just English—AIs will understand languages from around the world. In India earlier this year, I met with developers who are working on AIs that will understand many of the languages spoken there.)
最終翩迈，你控制計算機的主要方式將不再是指點和點擊，或敲擊菜單和對話框盔夜。取而代之的是负饲，你將能夠用簡單的英語來寫請求。(不僅僅是英語喂链，人工智能將理解世界各地的語言返十。今年早些時候在印度，我會見了正在研究人工智能的開發(fā)人員椭微，他們將理解當?shù)氐脑S多語言吧慢。）

In addition, advances in AI will enable the creation of a personal agent. Think of it as a digital personal assistant: It will see your latest emails, know about the meetings you attend, read what you read, and read the things you don’t want to bother with. This will both improve your work on the tasks you want to do and free you from the ones you don’t want to do.
此外，人工智能的進步將使個人代理的創(chuàng)建成為可能赏表。把它想象成一個數(shù)字個人助理：它將看到你最新的電子郵件检诗，知道你參加的會議，閱讀你讀的東西瓢剿，并閱讀你不想理會的東西逢慌。這既能改善你想做的工作，又能把你從你不想做的工作中解放出來间狂。

Advances in AI will enable the creation of a personal agent.
人工智能方面的進展將使個人代理的創(chuàng)建成為可能攻泼。

You’ll be able to use natural language to have this agent help you with scheduling, communications, and e-commerce, and it will work across all your devices. Because of the cost of training the models and running the computations, creating a personal agent is not feasible yet, but thanks to the recent advances in AI, it is now a realistic goal.Some issues will need to be worked out: For example, can an insurance company ask your agent things about you without your permission? If so, how many people will choose not to use it?
你將能夠使用自然語言，讓這個代理幫助你進行日程安排鉴象、通信和電子商務(wù)忙菠，而且它將在你的所有設(shè)備上工作。由于訓練模型和運行計算的成本纺弊，創(chuàng)建一個個人代理還不可行牛欢，但由于人工智能的最新進展，它現(xiàn)在是一個現(xiàn)實的目標： 例如淆游，保險公司可以在未經(jīng)你允許的情況下向你的代理人詢問有關(guān)你的事情嗎傍睹？如果是這樣，有多少人會選擇不使用它犹菱？

Company-wide agents will empower employees in new ways. An agent that understands a particular company will be available for its employees to consult directly and should be part of every meeting so it can answer questions. It can be told to be passive or encouraged to speak up if it has some insight. It will need access to the sales, support, finance, product schedules, and text related to the company. It should read news related to the industry the company is in. I believe that the result will be that employees will become more productive.
全公司的代理人將以新的方式賦予員工權(quán)力拾稳。一個了解特定公司的代理人將可以讓其員工直接咨詢，并應(yīng)成為每次會議的一部分腊脱，以便它可以回答問題访得。如果它有一些見解，可以告訴它要被動陕凹，也可以鼓勵它大聲說話悍抑。它需要接觸到與公司有關(guān)的銷售鳄炉、支持、財務(wù)传趾、產(chǎn)品時間表和文本。它應(yīng)該閱讀與公司所處行業(yè)相關(guān)的新聞泥技。我相信其結(jié)果將是員工變得更有生產(chǎn)力浆兰。

When productivity goes up, society benefits because people are freed up to do other things, at work and at home. Of course, there are serious questions about what kind of support and retraining people will need. Governments need to help workers transition into other roles. But the demand for people who help other people will never go away. The rise of AI will free people up to do things that software never will—teaching, caring for patients, and supporting the elderly, for example.
當生產(chǎn)力上升時，社會就會受益珊豹，因為人們可以騰出手來做其他事情簸呈，無論是在工作還是在家里。當然店茶，對于人們需要什么樣的支持和再培訓蜕便，存在著嚴重的問題。政府需要幫助工人過渡到其他角色贩幻。但對幫助他人的人的需求永遠不會消失轿腺。人工智能的興起將釋放人們?nèi)プ鲕浖肋h做不到的事情--例如，教學丛楚、照顧病人和支持老人族壳。

Global health and education are two areas where there’s great need and not enough workers to meet those needs. These are areas where AI can help reduce inequity if it is properly targeted. These should be a key focus of AI work, so I will turn to them now.
全球健康和教育是兩個有巨大需求的領(lǐng)域，而沒有足夠的工人來滿足這些需求趣些。這些是人工智能可以幫助減少不平等的領(lǐng)域仿荆，如果它有適當?shù)尼槍π浴＿@些應(yīng)該是人工智能工作的一個重點坏平，所以我現(xiàn)在要談?wù)勊鼈儭?/p>

健康/Health

I see several ways in which AIs will improve health care and the medical field.
我認為人工智能將通過幾種方式改善醫(yī)療保健和醫(yī)療領(lǐng)域拢操。

For one thing, they’ll help health-care workers make the most of their time by taking care of certain tasks for them—things like filing insurance claims, dealing with paperwork, and drafting notes from a doctor’s visit. I expect that there will be a lot of innovation in this area.
首先，它們將幫助醫(yī)療工作者充分利用他們的時間舶替，為他們處理某些任務(wù)--如提交保險索賠令境，處理文書工作，以及起草醫(yī)生的訪問記錄顾瞪。我預計在這個領(lǐng)域會有很多創(chuàng)新展父。

Other AI-driven improvements will be especially important for poor countries, where the vast majority of under-5 deaths happen.
其他由人工智能驅(qū)動的改進對貧困國家尤為重要，因為絕大多數(shù)5歲以下兒童的死亡都發(fā)生在這些國家玲昧。

For example, many people in those countries never get to see a doctor, and AIs will help the health workers they do see be more productive. (The effort to develop AI-powered ultrasound machines that can be used with minimal training is a great example of this.) AIs will even give patients the ability to do basic triage, get advice about how to deal with health problems, and decide whether they need to seek treatment.
例如栖茉，這些國家的許多人從未見過醫(yī)生，而人工智能將幫助他們所見的衛(wèi)生工作者提高工作效率孵延。(開發(fā)人工智能驅(qū)動的超聲波機器的努力就是一個很好的例子吕漂，只需經(jīng)過最少的培訓就能使用。） 人工智能甚至會讓病人有能力進行基本的分流尘应，獲得關(guān)于如何處理健康問題的建議惶凝，并決定他們是否需要尋求治療吼虎。

The AI models used in poor countries will need to be trained on different diseases than in rich countries. They will need to work in different languages and factor in different challenges, such as patients who live very far from clinics or can’t afford to stop working if they get sick.
在貧窮國家使用的人工智能模型將需要在不同的疾病上進行訓練，而不是在富裕國家苍鲜。他們將需要用不同的語言工作思灰，并考慮到不同的挑戰(zhàn)，例如住在離診所很遠的地方的病人混滔，或者如果他們生病了就不能停止工作洒疚。

People will need to see evidence that health AIs are beneficial overall, even though they won’t be perfect and will make mistakes. AIs have to be tested very carefully and properly regulated, which means it will take longer for them to be adopted than in other areas. But then again, humans make mistakes too. And having no access to medical care is also a problem.
人們將需要看到證據(jù)，證明健康人工智能總體上是有益的坯屿，盡管它們不會是完美的油湖，會犯錯誤。AI必須經(jīng)過非常仔細的測試和適當?shù)谋O(jiān)管领跛，這意味著它們被采用的時間將比其他領(lǐng)域更長乏德。但話說回來，人類也會犯錯吠昭。而無法獲得醫(yī)療護理也是一個問題喊括。

In addition to helping with care, AIs will dramatically accelerate the rate of medical breakthroughs. The amount of data in biology is very large, and it’s hard for humans to keep track of all the ways that complex biological systems work. There is already software that can look at this data, infer what the pathways are, search for targets on pathogens, and design drugs accordingly. Some companies are working on cancer drugs that were developed this way.
除了幫助護理，人工智能將大大加快醫(yī)療突破的速度矢棚。生物學的數(shù)據(jù)量非常大瘾晃，人類很難掌握復雜生物系統(tǒng)的所有工作方式。已經(jīng)有軟件可以查看這些數(shù)據(jù)幻妓，推斷出什么是路徑蹦误，搜索病原體上的目標，并據(jù)此設(shè)計藥物肉津。一些公司正在研究以這種方式開發(fā)的癌癥藥物强胰。

The next generation of tools will be much more efficient, and they’ll be able to predict side effects and figure out dosing levels. One of the Gates Foundation’s priorities in AI is to make sure these tools are used for the health problems that affect the poorest people in the world, including AIDS, TB, and malaria.
下一代的工具將更加有效，它們將能夠預測副作用并計算出劑量水平妹沙。蓋茨基金會在人工智能方面的優(yōu)先事項之一是確保這些工具被用于影響世界上最貧窮的人的健康問題偶洋，包括艾滋病、結(jié)核病和瘧疾距糖。

Similarly, governments and philanthropy should create incentives for companies to share AI-generated insights into crops or livestock raised by people in poor countries. AIs can help develop better seeds based on local conditions, advise farmers on the best seeds to plant based on the soil and weather in their area, and help develop drugs and vaccines for livestock. As extreme weather and climate change put even more pressure on subsistence farmers in low-income countries, these advances will be even more important.
同樣玄窝，政府和慈善機構(gòu)應(yīng)該為公司創(chuàng)造激勵機制，讓他們分享人工智能產(chǎn)生的對貧困國家人民飼養(yǎng)的作物或牲畜的見解悍引。人工智能可以幫助開發(fā)基于當?shù)貤l件的更好的種子恩脂，根據(jù)當?shù)氐耐寥篮吞鞖鉃檗r(nóng)民提供種植最佳種子的建議，并幫助開發(fā)牲畜的藥物和疫苗趣斤。隨著極端天氣和氣候變化給低收入國家的自給農(nóng)戶帶來更大的壓力俩块，這些進展將更加重要。

教育/Education

Computers haven’t had the effect on education that many of us in the industry have hoped. There have been some good developments, including educational games and online sources of information like Wikipedia, but they haven’t had a meaningful effect on any of the measures of students’ achievement.
計算機對教育的影響并不像我們許多業(yè)內(nèi)人士所希望的那樣。有一些很好的發(fā)展玉凯，包括教育游戲和維基百科等在線信息來源势腮，但它們沒有對衡量學生成績的任何措施產(chǎn)生有意義的影響。

But I think in the next five to 10 years, AI-driven software will finally deliver on the promise of revolutionizing the way people teach and learn. It will know your interests and your learning style so it can tailor content that will keep you engaged. It will measure your understanding, notice when you’re losing interest, and understand what kind of motivation you respond to. It will give immediate feedback.
但我認為在未來5到10年內(nèi)漫仆，人工智能驅(qū)動的軟件將最終實現(xiàn)徹底改變?nèi)藗兘虒W和學習方式的承諾捎拯。它將了解你的興趣和你的學習風格，因此它可以定制能讓你參與的內(nèi)容盲厌。它將衡量你的理解力署照，注意你何時失去興趣，并了解你對哪種激勵作出反應(yīng)狸眼。它將給出即時反饋藤树。

There are many ways that AIs can assist teachers and administrators, including assessing a student’s understanding of a subject and giving advice on career planning. Teachers are already using tools like ChatGPT to provide comments on their students’ writing assignments.
AI有很多方式可以幫助教師和管理人員浴滴，包括評估學生對某一學科的理解拓萌，并提供職業(yè)規(guī)劃方面的建議。教師已經(jīng)在使用像ChatGPT這樣的工具升略，對學生的寫作作業(yè)提供評論微王。

Of course, AIs will need a lot of training and further development before they can do things like understand how a certain student learns best or what motivates them. Even once the technology is perfected, learning will still depend on great relationships between students and teachers. It will enhance—but never replace—the work that students and teachers do together in the classroom.
當然，人工智能還需要大量的培訓和進一步的發(fā)展品嚣，才能做到了解某個學生的最佳學習方式或激勵他們的因素等事情炕倘。即使技術(shù)完善了，學習仍將取決于學生和教師之間的良好關(guān)系翰撑。它將增強--但絕不會取代--學生和教師在課堂上共同完成的工作罩旋。

New tools will be created for schools that can afford to buy them, but we need to ensure that they are also created for and available to low-income schools in the U.S. and around the world. AIs will need to be trained on diverse data sets so they are unbiased and reflect the different cultures where they’ll be used. And the digital divide will need to be addressed so that students in low-income households do not get left behind.
新的工具將為有能力購買的學校創(chuàng)造，但我們需要確保它們也為美國和世界各地的低收入學校創(chuàng)造并提供眶诈。AI將需要在不同的數(shù)據(jù)集上進行訓練涨醋，以便它們是無偏見的，并反映出它們將被使用的不同文化逝撬。數(shù)字鴻溝將需要得到解決浴骂，以便低收入家庭的學生不會被拋在后面。

I know a lot of teachers are worried that students are using GPT to write their essays. Educators are already discussing ways to adapt to the new technology, and I suspect those conversations will continue for quite some time. I’ve heard about teachers who have found clever ways to incorporate the technology into their work—like by allowing students to use GPT to create a first draft that they have to personalize.
我知道很多老師都擔心學生用GPT來寫論文宪潮。教育家們已經(jīng)在討論如何適應(yīng)新技術(shù)溯警，我懷疑這些對話將持續(xù)相當長的一段時間。我聽說有些老師已經(jīng)找到了將技術(shù)融入工作的巧妙方法狡相，比如讓學生使用GPT來創(chuàng)建一個他們必須個性化的初稿梯轻。

人工智能的風險和問題/Risks and problems with AI

You’ve probably read about problems with the current AI models. For example, they aren’t necessarily good at understanding the context for a human’s request, which leads to some strange results. When you ask an AI to make up something fictional, it can do that well. But when you ask for advice about a trip you want to take, it may suggest hotels that don’t exist. This is because the AI doesn’t understand the context for your request well enough to know whether it should invent fake hotels or only tell you about real ones that have rooms available.
你可能已經(jīng)讀到了關(guān)于目前人工智能模型的問題。例如尽棕，它們不一定善于理解人類請求的背景檩淋，這導致了一些奇怪的結(jié)果。當你要求人工智能編造一些虛構(gòu)的東西，它可以做得很好蟀悦。但是當你要求對你想去的旅行提供建議時媚朦，它可能會建議不存在的酒店。這是因為人工智能沒有很好地理解你的請求的背景日戈，不知道它是應(yīng)該編造假酒店還是只告訴你有房間的真實酒店询张。

There are other issues, such as AIs giving wrong answers to math problems because they struggle with abstract reasoning. But none of these are fundamental limitations of artificial intelligence. Developers are working on them, and I think we’re going to see them largely fixed in less than two years and possibly much faster.
還有其他一些問題，例如人工智能對數(shù)學問題給出錯誤的答案浙炼，因為它們在抽象推理方面有困難份氧。但這些都不是人工智能的基本限制。開發(fā)人員正在努力解決這些問題弯屈，我認為我們將在不到兩年的時間內(nèi)看到這些問題基本得到解決蜗帜，而且可能更快。

Other concerns are not simply technical. For example, there’s the threat posed by humans armed with AI. Like most inventions, artificial intelligence can be used for good purposes or malign ones. Governments need to work with the private sector on ways to limit the risks.
其他的擔憂不只是技術(shù)問題资厉。例如厅缺，還有用人工智能武裝起來的人類所帶來的威脅。像大多數(shù)發(fā)明一樣宴偿，人工智能可以被用于好的目的湘捎，也可以被用于惡的目的。政府需要與私營部門合作窄刘，設(shè)法限制風險窥妇。

Then there’s the possibility that AIs will run out of control. Could a machine decide that humans are a threat, conclude that its interests are different from ours, or simply stop caring about us? Possibly, but this problem is no more urgent today than it was before the AI developments of the past few months.
還有一種可能性是，人工智能會失去控制娩践。一臺機器會不會認為人類是一種威脅活翩，得出結(jié)論認為它的利益與我們不同，或者干脆不再關(guān)心我們翻伺？有可能材泄，但這個問題今天并不比過去幾個月的人工智能發(fā)展之前更緊迫。

Superintelligent AIs are in our future. Compared to a computer, our brains operate at a snail’s pace: An electrical signal in the brain moves at 1/100,000th the speed of the signal in a silicon chip! Once developers can generalize a learning algorithm and run it at the speed of a computer—an accomplishment that could be a decade away or a century away—we’ll have an incredibly powerful AGI. It will be able to do everything that a human brain can, but without any practical limits on the size of its memory or the speed at which it operates. This will be a profound change.
超級智能的人工智能就在我們的未來穆趴。與計算機相比脸爱，我們的大腦以蝸牛的速度運作： 大腦中電信號的移動速度是硅芯片中信號的1/100,000! 一旦開發(fā)人員能夠普及學習算法，并以計算機的速度運行它--這一成就可能是十年后或一個世紀后的事--我們將擁有一個強大無比的AGI未妹。它將能夠做人腦所能做的一切簿废，但對其內(nèi)存的大小和運行速度沒有任何實際限制笔时。這將是一個深刻的變化垮兑。

These “strong” AIs, as they’re known, will probably be able to establish their own goals. What will those goals be? What happens if they conflict with humanity’s interests? Should we try to prevent strong AI from ever being developed? These questions will get more pressing with time.
這些 "強大 "的人工智能，正如它們所知道的那樣呼奢，可能將能夠建立自己的目標化戳。這些目標將是什么单料？如果它們與人類的利益相沖突會怎樣埋凯？我們是否應(yīng)該試圖阻止強人工智能的發(fā)展？這些問題將隨著時間的推移變得更加緊迫扫尖。

But none of the breakthroughs of the past few months have moved us substantially closer to strong AI. Artificial intelligence still doesn’t control the physical world and can’t establish its own goals. A recent New York Times article about a conversation with ChatGPT where it declared it wanted to become a human got a lot of attention. It was a fascinating look at how human-like the model's expression of emotions can be, but it isn't an indicator of meaningful independence.
但過去幾個月的突破都沒有讓我們大幅接近強人工智能白对。人工智能仍然不能控制物理世界，也不能建立自己的目標换怖。最近《紐約時報》一篇關(guān)于與ChatGPT對話的文章甩恼，其中它宣稱要成為人類，引起了很多人的注意沉颂。這是一個令人著迷的觀點条摸，即模型的情感表達可以多么像人類，但這并不是一個有意義的獨立指標铸屉。

Three books have shaped my own thinking on this subject: Superintelligence, by Nick Bostrom; Life 3.0 by Max Tegmark; and A Thousand Brains, by Jeff Hawkins. I don’t agree with everything the authors say, and they don’t agree with each other either. But all three books are well written and thought-provoking.
有三本書塑造了我自己對這個問題的思考： Nick Bostrom的《超級智能》钉蒲；Max Tegmark的《生命3.0》；以及Jeff Hawkins的《一千個大腦》彻坛。我不同意作者所說的一切顷啼，他們也不同意彼此的觀點。但這三本書都寫得很好小压，發(fā)人深省线梗。

下一個前沿領(lǐng)域/The next frontiers

There will be an explosion of companies working on new uses of AI as well as ways to improve the technology itself. For example, companies are developing new chips that will provide the massive amounts of processing power needed for artificial intelligence. Some use optical switches—lasers, essentially—to reduce their energy consumption and lower the manufacturing cost. Ideally, innovative chips will allow you to run an AI on your own device, rather than in the cloud, as you have to do today.
從事人工智能新應(yīng)用以及改進技術(shù)本身的方法的公司將大量涌現(xiàn)椰于。例如怠益，公司正在開發(fā)新的芯片，以提供人工智能所需的大量處理能力瘾婿。一些公司使用光學開關(guān)--激光器蜻牢，本質(zhì)上是為了減少其能源消耗，降低制造成本偏陪。理想情況下抢呆，創(chuàng)新的芯片將允許你在自己的設(shè)備上運行人工智能，而不是像今天這樣必須在云端運行笛谦。

On the software side, the algorithms that drive an AI’s learning will get better. There will be certain domains, such as sales, where developers can make AIs extremely accurate by limiting the areas that they work in and giving them a lot of training data that’s specific to those areas. But one big open question is whether we’ll need many of these specialized AIs for different uses—one for education, say, and another for office productivity—or whether it will be possible to develop an artificial general intelligence that can learn any task. There will be immense competition on both approaches.
在軟件方面抱虐，驅(qū)動人工智能學習的算法將變得更好。在某些領(lǐng)域饥脑，例如銷售恳邀，開發(fā)者可以通過限制人工智能工作的領(lǐng)域，并給它們提供大量特定于這些領(lǐng)域的訓練數(shù)據(jù)灶轰，使人工智能變得非常準確谣沸。但是，一個巨大的開放性問題是笋颤，我們是否需要許多這些專門的人工智能用于不同的用途--比如說乳附，一個用于教育，另一個用于辦公效率--或者是否有可能開發(fā)一個能夠?qū)W習任何任務(wù)的人工通用智能。這兩種方法都會有巨大的競爭赋除。

No matter what, the subject of AIs will dominate the public discussion for the foreseeable future. I want to suggest three principles that should guide that conversation.
無論怎樣阱缓，在可預見的未來，人工智能的主題將主導公眾的討論举农。我想提出三個原則茬祷，以指導這一對話。

First, we should try to balance fears about the downsides of AI—which are understandable and valid—with its ability to improve people’s lives. To make the most of this remarkable new technology, we’ll need to both guard against the risks and spread the benefits to as many people as possible.
首先并蝗，我們應(yīng)該努力平衡對人工智能弊端的擔憂--這些擔憂是可以理解的祭犯，也是合理的--與它改善人們生活的能力。為了充分利用這項了不起的新技術(shù)滚停，我們既要防范風險沃粗，又要把好處傳播給盡可能多的人。

Second, market forces won’t naturally produce AI products and services that help the poorest. The opposite is more likely. With reliable funding and the right policies, governments and philanthropy can ensure that AIs are used to reduce inequity. Just as the world needs its brightest people focused on its biggest problems, we will need to focus the world’s best AIs on its biggest problems.
第二键畴，市場力量不會自然產(chǎn)生幫助最貧困人口的人工智能產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)最盅。相反，更有可能起惕。有了可靠的資金和正確的政策涡贱，政府和慈善機構(gòu)可以確保人工智能被用于減少不平等。正如世界需要其最聰明的人專注于其最大的問題一樣惹想，我們將需要把世界上最好的人工智能專注于其最大的問題问词。

Although we shouldn’t wait for this to happen, it’s interesting to think about whether artificial intelligence would ever identify inequity and try to reduce it. Do you need to have a sense of morality in order to see inequity, or would a purely rational AI also see it? If it did recognize inequity, what would it suggest that we do about it?
雖然我們不應(yīng)該等待這種情況的發(fā)生，但思考一下人工智能是否會識別不公平并試圖減少不公平是很有趣的嘀粱。你是否需要有道德感才能看到不公平激挪，或者一個純粹理性的人工智能也會看到它？如果它確實看到了不公平锋叨，它會建議我們怎么做呢垄分？

Finally, we should keep in mind that we’re only at the beginning of what AI can accomplish. Whatever limitations it has today will be gone before we know it.
最后，我們應(yīng)該記住娃磺，我們只是處于人工智能所能完成的開始階段薄湿。無論它今天有什么限制，在我們知道之前就會消失偷卧。

I’m lucky to have been involved with the PC revolution and the Internet revolution. I’m just as excited about this moment. This new technology can help people everywhere improve their lives. At the same time, the world needs to establish the rules of the road so that any downsides of artificial intelligence are far outweighed by its benefits, and so that everyone can enjoy those benefits no matter where they live or how much money they have. The Age of AI is filled with opportunities and responsibilities.
我很幸運地參與了個人電腦革命和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)革命豺瘤。我對這一時刻同樣感到興奮。這項新技術(shù)可以幫助世界各地的人們改善他們的生活涯冠。同時炉奴，世界需要建立道路規(guī)則，以便人工智能的任何缺點都遠遠超過其好處蛇更，并使每個人都能享受這些好處瞻赶，無論他們住在哪里赛糟，有多少錢。人工智能時代充滿了機遇和責任砸逊。