這是[在不確定下做決定]系列的最后一篇文章晌杰。

目錄：

1.用提高自我意識(shí)避免無(wú)知

2.《罪與罰》里主人公的無(wú)知

3.背景知識(shí)

4.思考

This is a continuation oftwo types of ignorance.

本篇是兩種無(wú)知的續(xù)文马昙。

一.用提高自我意識(shí)避免無(wú)知

You can't deal with ignorance if you can't recognize its presence. If you're suffering from primary ignorance it means you probably failed to consider the possibility of being ignorant or you found ways not to see that you were ignorant.

如果你不能發(fā)現(xiàn)無(wú)知的存在告丢，那么你就不能處理無(wú)知疯兼。如果你正在遭受無(wú)知皇拣，那就意味著你可能考慮不到你正處于無(wú)知的狀態(tài)或找不到方法看到你是無(wú)知的焦影。

You're ignorant and unaware, which is worse than being ignorant and aware.

你無(wú)知且無(wú)意識(shí)的狀態(tài)比無(wú)知但知道的狀態(tài)糟糕多了优俘。

The best way to avoid this, suggests Joy and Zeckhauser, is to raise self-awareness.

根據(jù)Joy和Zeckhauser诲祸，最好的避免這種狀態(tài)的方法是提高自我意識(shí)浊吏。

Ask yourself regularly: “Might I be in a state of consequential ignorance here?”

習(xí)以為常地問(wèn)自己：“我正處于一種間接的無(wú)知嗎？“

They continue:

他們繼續(xù)：

If the answer is yes, the next step should be to estimate base rates. That should also be the next step if the starting point is recognized ignorance.

如果答案是肯定的救氯，接下來(lái)應(yīng)該估計(jì)基本比率找田。如果起點(diǎn)是可知的無(wú)知的，那也應(yīng)該是它的下一步着憨。

Of all situations such as this, how often has a particular outcome happened. Of course, this is often totally subjective.

像這樣的所有情況墩衙，特定的結(jié)果多久發(fā)生一次。當(dāng)然甲抖，這常是十分主觀的漆改。

and its underpinnings are elusive. It is hard to know what the sample of relevant past experiences has been, how to draw inferences from the experience of others, etc. Nevertheless, it is far better to proceed to an answer, however tenuous, than to simply miss (primary ignorance) or slight (recognized ignorance) the issue. Unfortunately, the assessment of base rates is challenging and substantial biases are likely to enter.

它的基礎(chǔ)是難懂的。很難知道過(guò)去相關(guān)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)是什么樣的准谚，如何參考別人的經(jīng)驗(yàn)挫剑，等等。然而柱衔，無(wú)論多么不確定樊破，開(kāi)始一個(gè)大難總比不知（基本的無(wú)知）或輕視（可識(shí)別的無(wú)知）問(wèn)題好太多了愉棱。不幸地是：評(píng)價(jià)基本比率是富有挑戰(zhàn)的，許多很可能乘虛而入哲戚。

When we don't recognize ignorance the base rate is extremely underestimated. When we do recognize ignorance, we face “duelling biases; some will lead to underestimates of base rates and others to overestimates.”

當(dāng)我們識(shí)別不出無(wú)知奔滑，基本比率是被大大低估的。當(dāng)我們識(shí)別出無(wú)知時(shí)顺少，我們面臨“決斗的偏見(jiàn)朋其，一些人會(huì)低估基本比率，其他人會(huì)高估基本比率祈纯×钏蓿”

Three biases come into play while estimating base rates: overconfidence, salience, and selection biases.

當(dāng)我們估計(jì)基本比率時(shí)，三種偏差會(huì)出來(lái)攪局：過(guò)度自信腕窥，突出性和選擇偏差粒没。

So we are overconfident in our estimates. We estimate things that are salient – that is, “states with which (we) have some experience or that are otherwise easily brought to mind.” And “there is a strong selection bias to recall or retell events that were surprising or of great consequence.”

所以我們對(duì)于估計(jì)過(guò)分自信。我們估計(jì)突出的事情---那就是簇爆，“那些我們有經(jīng)驗(yàn)或者很容易想到的描述癞松。”和“強(qiáng)烈的選擇偏差去回憶或復(fù)述那些令人驚訝或者重大影響的事件入蛆∠烊兀”

Our key lesson is that as individuals proceed through life, they should always be on the lookout for ignorance.When they do recognize it, they should try to assess how likely they are to be surprised—in other words, attempt to compute the base rate. In discussing this assessment, we might also employ the term “catchall” from statistics, to cover the outcomes not specifically addressed.

當(dāng)個(gè)人繼續(xù)生活時(shí)，我們能給出的重要經(jīng)驗(yàn)是哨毁，他們應(yīng)該時(shí)刻監(jiān)視無(wú)知枫甲。當(dāng)他們是識(shí)別出無(wú)知時(shí)，應(yīng)該評(píng)價(jià)他們被驚訝的程度----換句話(huà)說(shuō)扼褪，嘗試計(jì)算基礎(chǔ)比率想幻。在討論這個(gè)估計(jì)時(shí)，我們也要運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)的術(shù)語(yǔ)话浇，覆蓋那些不被強(qiáng)調(diào)的結(jié)果脏毯。

二.《罪與罰》里主人公的無(wú)知

It's incredibly interesting to view literature through the lens of human decision making.

通過(guò)人類(lèi)決策的透鏡來(lái)欣賞文學(xué)是非常有趣的。

Crime and Punishmentis particularly interesting as a study of primary ignorance. Raskolnikov deploys his impressive intelligence to plan the murder, believing, in his ignorance, that he has left nothing to chance. In a series of descriptions not for the squeamish or the faint-hearted, the murderer’s thoughts are laid bare as he plans the deed. We read about his skills in strategic inference and his powers of prediction about where and how he will corner his victim; his tactics at developing complementary skills (what is the precise manner in which he will carry the axe?; what strategies will help him avoid detection) are revealed.

《罪與罰》作為研究無(wú)知是相當(dāng)有意思的幔崖。拉斯科利尼夫運(yùn)用它令人印象深刻的智力計(jì)劃謀殺食店，相信他的無(wú)知，它沒(méi)有任何東西拿來(lái)冒險(xiǎn)赏寇。在一系列不是為了憐憫或懦弱的描述中吉嫩，謀殺者的想法在他做計(jì)劃時(shí)被揭發(fā)了。我們讀到了他做策略推理的技能及預(yù)測(cè)在哪里及如何困住受害者的能力嗅定；他的發(fā)展補(bǔ)充能力的策略（攜帶斧子精確的方式是什么率挣？什么策略幫助他逃避偵查）被揭示了。

But since Raskolnikov is making decisions under primary ignorance, his determined rationality is tightly “bounded.” He “construct[s] a simplified model of the real situation in order to deal with it; … behaves rationally with respect to this model, [but] such behavior is not even approximately optimal with respect to the real world” (Simon 1957). The second-guessing, fear, and delirium at the heart of Raskolnikov’s thinking as he struggles to gain a foothold in his inner world show the impact of a cascade of Consequential Amazing Development's (CAD), none predicted, none even contemplated. Raskolnikov anticipated an outcome in which he would dispatch the pawnbroker and slip quietly out of her apartment. He could not have possibly predicted that her sister would show up, a characteristic CAD that challenges what Taleb (2012) calls our “illusion of predictability.”

但當(dāng)拉斯科利尼夫在基本的無(wú)知下做決策時(shí)露戒，他的充滿(mǎn)決心的理性注定是有界限的椒功。他“為了處理它，建立了一個(gè)真實(shí)環(huán)境的簡(jiǎn)化模型智什，遵從那個(gè)模型下理性行動(dòng)动漾，但是這樣的行動(dòng)在尊重真實(shí)的世界前不是最佳的≤В”（Simon 1957）旱眯。當(dāng)針扎著他獲得內(nèi)心世界的立足點(diǎn)時(shí)，第二猜測(cè)证九，恐懼和狂喜展示了大量的CAD（相應(yīng)驚人發(fā)展）的影響删豺，沒(méi)人預(yù)測(cè)，也沒(méi)人想過(guò)愧怜。拉斯科利尼夫預(yù)測(cè)一個(gè)結(jié)果呀页，他能殺死典當(dāng)商并悄悄離開(kāi)她的公寓。但他卻不能預(yù)測(cè)她的妹妹會(huì)出現(xiàn)拥坛，一個(gè)特征性的CAD挑戰(zhàn)了塔利布稱(chēng)為的“預(yù)測(cè)幻覺(jué)”蓬蝶。

Joy and Zeckhauser argue we can draw two conclusions.

Joy和Zeckhauser認(rèn)為我們可以得出兩個(gè)結(jié)論。

First, we tend to downplay the role of unanticipated events, preferring instead to expect simple causal relationships and linear developments. Second, when we do encounter a CAD, we often counter with knee-jerk, impulsive decisions, the equivalent of Raskolnikov committing a second impetuous murder.

首先猜惋，我們趨向于低估無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)事件的作用丸氛，更喜歡期待簡(jiǎn)單隨機(jī)的關(guān)系和線(xiàn)性的發(fā)展。其次著摔，當(dāng)我們?cè)庥鯟AD時(shí)缓窜，我們經(jīng)常以下意識(shí)、沖動(dòng)的決定去反應(yīng)谍咆，就和拉斯科利尼夫是一個(gè)瞬間沖動(dòng)的殺手一樣禾锤。

三.背景知識(shí)

《罪與罰》是俄國(guó)文學(xué)家杜斯妥也夫斯基的長(zhǎng)篇小說(shuō)作品，出版于1866年卧波，在他貧窮時(shí)倉(cāng)促完成时肿，與《戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)與和平》并列為最具有影響力的俄國(guó)小說(shuō)。

簡(jiǎn)介

本作品是關(guān)于一個(gè)貧窮的法律系大學(xué)生拉斯柯尼科夫的故事港粱，他離群索居螃成，賃居在彼得堡一個(gè)窄小的房間，不遠(yuǎn)處住著掌管當(dāng)鋪的老太婆查坪。

老太婆為人吝嗇寸宏，只愿意付極少的代價(jià)來(lái)收購(gòu)人們?nèi)サ洚?dāng)?shù)奈锲贰＠箍履峥品蜷L(zhǎng)期罹患憂(yōu)郁癥偿曙，并擁有實(shí)踐他所謂偉人可以舍棄一切道德約束乃至有權(quán)力犯罪的念頭氮凝；于是于謀劃后以斧頭砍死當(dāng)鋪的老太婆，并失手殺死她的妹妹麗莎維塔望忆，匆匆拿走一些珠寶與錢(qián)財(cái)罩阵，從此他便在自身罪惡感的折磨下受盡痛苦竿秆。

這期間他認(rèn)識(shí)了一位為贍養(yǎng)家人而被迫賣(mài)淫，但信仰卻極為虔誠(chéng)的女子索妮雅稿壁。受到索妮雅和預(yù)審官波爾費(fèi)利等影響幽钢，他最后向警方自首。經(jīng)過(guò)審判傅是，拉斯柯尼科夫被流放到西伯利亞服刑八年匪燕，索妮雅跟著他到西伯利亞，拉斯柯尼科夫?qū)λ髂菅乓恢庇胁徽徑庑剩桓艺曀拇嬖诿毖薄Ｖ钡剿髂菅糯蟛∫粓?chǎng)的時(shí)候，他終于才發(fā)現(xiàn)自己是如何的愛(ài)她书闸，決心用盡一切來(lái)補(bǔ)償她尼变。小說(shuō)結(jié)尾拉斯科尼科夫皈依東正教以懺悔。

威廉哈本的《卡夫卡其人與其作品》中梗劫，曾對(duì)卡夫卡跟杜思妥也夫斯基做過(guò)比較： “ …杜思妥也夫斯基的一個(gè)寓言就是享甸，當(dāng)人類(lèi)沒(méi)有信仰，什么事情都干得出來(lái)梳侨。在《罪與罰》里面蛉威，沒(méi)有任何人有罪，但罰卻加諸在每個(gè)人身上走哺◎窍樱”

四.思考

以前曾聽(tīng)說(shuō)過(guò)這樣一句話(huà)，“我最怕的事情是我不知道我無(wú)知丙躏≡袷荆”如果可以意識(shí)到自己的無(wú)知，那解決方法挺簡(jiǎn)單的晒旅，現(xiàn)在資源真么多栅盲，谷歌一下，就去學(xué)了废恋√革可是當(dāng)我們無(wú)法認(rèn)識(shí)到自己的無(wú)知的時(shí)候，那就比較難鱼鼓，因?yàn)槟侵R(shí)就存在于那拟烫，我們卻不知道它就在那。面對(duì)這種情況文章中作者給了一個(gè)建議：提高自我意識(shí)迄本，常規(guī)地問(wèn)問(wèn)自己我是處于無(wú)知的狀態(tài)嗎硕淑？保持一種開(kāi)放的形態(tài)，謙虛的心態(tài)。

除了這種方法置媳，多讀書(shū)也是一種認(rèn)識(shí)到自己無(wú)知的方法于樟，看看別人怎么想，別人怎么解決問(wèn)題拇囊，再對(duì)比自己過(guò)去怎么想隔披，過(guò)去怎么解決問(wèn)題，保持著主動(dòng)性與好奇心去讀書(shū)寂拆，常常會(huì)有這樣的體驗(yàn)，“原來(lái)還可以這么想抓韩，我怎么就想不到呢纠永？”隨著知識(shí)閱歷的增加，我想我們會(huì)更謙虛谒拴，更有好奇心的尝江，因?yàn)橹赖脑蕉啵惨馕吨滥遣恢赖臅?huì)越多的英上。

本譯文僅供個(gè)人研習(xí)炭序、欣賞語(yǔ)言之用，謝絕任何轉(zhuǎn)載及用于任何商業(yè)用途苍日。本譯文所涉法律后果均由本人承擔(dān)惭聂。本人同意簡(jiǎn)書(shū)平臺(tái)在接獲有關(guān)著作權(quán)人的通知后，刪除文章相恃。

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