【灰度預(yù)測】基于灰色模型實現(xiàn)電力負(fù)荷預(yù)測含Matlab源碼

1 簡介

以忻州市1994~2004年用電量數(shù)據(jù)為例介紹了灰色預(yù)測技術(shù)在電力系統(tǒng)中的應(yīng)用,并與忻州市1994年至2004年工農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值(不變價)和同期用電量數(shù)據(jù)建立的一元線性回歸模型預(yù)測結(jié)果進(jìn)行了對比分析,進(jìn)一步說明了灰色模型預(yù)測具有較高的置信度和應(yīng)用價值。

2 部分代碼

function varargout = gmgui(varargin)

% GMGUI MATLAB code for gmgui.fig

%? ? ? GMGUI, by itself, creates a new GMGUI or raises the existing

%? ? ? singleton*.

%? ? ? H = GMGUI returns the handle to a new GMGUI or the handle to

%? ? ? the existing singleton*.

%? ? ? GMGUI('CALLBACK',hObject,eventData,handles,...) calls the local

%? ? ? function named CALLBACK in GMGUI.M with the given input arguments.

%? ? ? GMGUI('Property','Value',...) creates a new GMGUI or raises the

%? ? ? existing singleton*.? Starting from the left, property value pairs are

%? ? ? applied to the GUI before gmgui_OpeningFcn gets called.? An

%? ? ? unrecognized property name or invalid value makes property application

%? ? ? stop.? All inputs are passed to gmgui_OpeningFcn via varargin.

%? ? ? *See GUI Options on GUIDE's Tools menu.? Choose "GUI allows only one

%? ? ? instance to run (singleton)".

% See also: GUIDE, GUIDATA, GUIHANDLES

% Edit the above text to modify the response to help gmgui

% Last Modified by GUIDE v2.5 10-May-2016 08:02:00

% Begin initialization code - DO NOT EDIT

gui_Singleton = 1;

gui_State = struct('gui_Name',? ? ? ?mfilename, ...

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?'gui_Singleton',? gui_Singleton, ...

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?'gui_OpeningFcn', @gmgui_OpeningFcn, ...

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?'gui_OutputFcn',? @gmgui_OutputFcn, ...

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?'gui_LayoutFcn',? [] , ...

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?'gui_Callback',? ?[]);

if nargin && ischar(varargin{1})

? ? gui_State.gui_Callback = str2func(varargin{1});

end

if nargout

? ? [varargout{1:nargout}] = gui_mainfcn(gui_State, varargin{:});

else

? ? gui_mainfcn(gui_State, varargin{:});

end

% End initialization code - DO NOT EDIT

% --- Executes just before gmgui is made visible.

function gmgui_OpeningFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles, varargin)

% This function has no output args, see OutputFcn.

% hObject? ? handle to figure

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% varargin? ?command line arguments to gmgui (see VARARGIN)

% Choose default command line output for gmgui

handles.output = hObject;

% Update handles structure

guidata(hObject, handles);

% UIWAIT makes gmgui wait for user response (see UIRESUME)

% uiwait(handles.figure1);

% --- Outputs from this function are returned to the command line.

function varargout = gmgui_OutputFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)?

% varargout? cell array for returning output args (see VARARGOUT);

% hObject? ? handle to figure

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Get default command line output from handles structure

varargout{1} = handles.output;

function edit1_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit1 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit1 as text

%? ? ? ? str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit1 as a double

global V;

V(1)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit1_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit1 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%? ? ? ?See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

? ? set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit2_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit2 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit2 as text

%? ? ? ? str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit2 as a double

global V;

V(2)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit2_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit2 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%? ? ? ?See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

? ? set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit3_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit3 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit3 as text

%? ? ? ? str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit3 as a double

global V;

V(3)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit3_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit3 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%? ? ? ?See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

? ? set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit4_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit4 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit4 as text

%? ? ? ? str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit4 as a double

global V;

V(4)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit4_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit4 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%? ? ? ?See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

? ? set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit5_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit5 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit5 as text

%? ? ? ? str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit5 as a double

global V;

V(5)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit5_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit5 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%? ? ? ?See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

? ? set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit6_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit6 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit6 as text

%? ? ? ? str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit6 as a double

global V;

V(6)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit6_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit6 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%? ? ? ?See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

? ? set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit7_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit7 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit7 as text

%? ? ? ? str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit7 as a double

global V;

V(7)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit7_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit7 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%? ? ? ?See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

? ? set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit8_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit8 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit8 as text

%? ? ? ? str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit8 as a double

global V;

V(8)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit8_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit8 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%? ? ? ?See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

? ? set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit9_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit9 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit9 as text

%? ? ? ? str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit9 as a double

global V;

V(9)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit9_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit9 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%? ? ? ?See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

? ? set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit10_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit10 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit10 as text

%? ? ? ? str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit10 as a double

global V;

V(10)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit10_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit10 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%? ? ? ?See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

? ? set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit11_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit11 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit11 as text

%? ? ? ? str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit11 as a double

global Vnew;

Vnew=str2double(get(hObject,'String'))

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit11_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit11 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%? ? ? ?See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

? ? set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

% --- Executes on button press in pushbutton1.

function pushbutton1_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to pushbutton1 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

clear

%首先完成前十個基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)的預(yù)測

global V;

syms a b;

A=[a b]';

B=cumsum(V);? % 原始數(shù)據(jù)累加

n=length(V);

for i=1:(n-1)

? ? C(i)=(B(i)+B(i+1))/2;? % 生成累加矩陣

end

% 計算待定參數(shù)的值

for i=1:(n-1)

? ? Y(i)=V(i+1);

end

Y=Y';

E=[-C;ones(1,n-1)];

A=inv(E*E')*E*Y;

A=A';

a=A(1);b=A(2);

% 預(yù)測后續(xù)數(shù)據(jù)

F=[];F(1)=V(1);

for i=2:(n+1)

? ? F(i)=(V(1)-b/a)/exp(a*(i-1))+b/a ;

end

G=[];G(1)=V(1);

for i=2:(n+1)

? ? G(i)=F(i)-F(i-1); %得到預(yù)測出來的數(shù)據(jù)

end?

t1=1:10;

t2=1:11;

G(11)? ? %輸出預(yù)測值

plot(t1,V,'o',t2,G)? %原始數(shù)據(jù)與預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)的比較

grid

% set(handles.edit16,'string',num2str(G(11)));

% --- Executes on button press in pushbutton2.

function pushbutton2_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to pushbutton2 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

count=0;

global Vnew V;

? ? count=count+1;

? ? for i=1 :9

? ? ? ? V(i)=V(i+1);

? ? end

?%? V(10)=Vnew;? ??

?B=cumsum(V);? % 原始數(shù)據(jù)累加

n=length(V);

for i=1:(n-1)

? ? C(i)=(B(i)+B(i+1))/2;? % 生成累加矩陣

end

% 計算待定參數(shù)的值

Y=V;Y(1)=[];

Y=Y';

E=[-C;ones(1,n-1)];

A=inv(E*E')*E*Y;

A=A';

a=A(1);b=A(2);

% 預(yù)測后續(xù)數(shù)據(jù)

F=[];F(1)=V(1);

for i=2:(n+1)

? ? F(i)=(V(1)-b/a)/exp(a*(i-1))+b/a ;

end

G=[];G(1)=V(1);

for i=2:(n+1)

? ? G(i)=F(i)-F(i-1); %得到預(yù)測出來的數(shù)據(jù)

end?

t1=1+count:10+count;

t2=1+count:11+count;

% G(11)? ?%輸出預(yù)測值

plot(t1,V,'o',t2,G)? %原始數(shù)據(jù)與預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)的比較

grid

set(handles.edit16,'string',num2str(G(11)));

function edit16_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit16 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit16 as text

%? ? ? ? str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit16 as a double

% set(handles.edit10,'string',num2str(A(10)));

% set(handles.edit16,'string',G(11));

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit16_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject? ? handle to edit16 (see GCBO)

% eventdata? reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles? ? empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%? ? ? ?See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

? ? set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

3 仿真結(jié)果

4 參考文獻(xiàn)

[1]王永華. 一例基于灰色模型的電力負(fù)荷預(yù)測方法的應(yīng)用[J]. 電力學(xué)報, 2005, 20(3):3.

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