i英文部分來自“經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人”雜志昆婿。譯文是個人學(xué)習(xí)、欣賞語言之用炫掐，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載或用于任何商業(yè)用途。本人同意簡書平臺在接獲有關(guān)著作權(quán)人的通知后睬涧，刪除文章募胃。

Daffodils are a messenger of spring. 水仙花是報春的使者- 譯者

All around the world, the economy is picking up

世界各國經(jīng)濟(jì)重拾升勢

“If winter comes,” the poet Shelley asked, “can Spring be far behind?” For the best part of a decade the answer as far as the world economy has been concerned has been an increasingly weary “Yes it can”. Now, though, after testing the faith of the most patient souls with glimmers that came to nothing, things seem to be warming up. It looks likely that this year, for the first time since 2010, rich-world and developing economies will put on synchronised growth spurts.

“如果冬天來了，”詩人雪萊問道畦浓，“春天還會遠(yuǎn)嗎痹束？”過去十年的大部分時間里，就世界經(jīng)濟(jì)而言讶请，答案越來越讓人厭倦祷嘶，“是的，還遠(yuǎn)著呢”夺溢。星星之火燃了又熄论巍，哪怕最沉得住氣的人的信心也倍受煎熬。不過現(xiàn)在情況似乎正在好起來风响〖翁看起來今年很可能是2010年以來發(fā)達(dá)國家和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體首次實現(xiàn)同步增長的一年。

珀西·比献辞冢·雪萊(Percy·Bysshe·Shelley鞋怀，1792年8月4日~1822年7月8日)双泪，簡稱雪萊，英國著名浪漫主義詩人密似，被認(rèn)為是歷史上最出色的英語詩人之一焙矛。英國浪漫主義民主詩人、第一位社會主義詩人残腌、小說家村斟、哲學(xué)家、散文隨筆和政論作家废累、改革家邓梅、柏拉圖主義者和理想主義者脱盲，受空想社會主義思想影響頗深邑滨。

雪萊名言名句還有：淺水是喧嘩的，深水是沉默的钱反。/饑餓和愛情統(tǒng)治著世界掖看。/過去屬于死神，未來屬于你自己.面哥。/讀書越多哎壳，越感到腹中空虛。-360百科

There are still plenty of reasons to fret:China’s debt mountain; the flaws in the foundations of the euro; Donald Trump’s protectionist tendencies; and so on. But amid these anxieties are real green shoots.For six months or so there has been growing evidence of increased activity. It has been clearest in the export-oriented economies of Asia. But it is visible in Europe, in America and even, just, in hard-hit emerging markets like Russia and Brazil.

還有很多理由值得擔(dān)心：中國堆積如山的債務(wù); 歐元基礎(chǔ)的固有缺陷; 唐納德·特朗普的保護(hù)主義傾向等等尚卫。但在這種種焦慮之中生長著復(fù)蘇的真正萌芽归榕。越來越多的證據(jù)顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)活動正在增加，而且已經(jīng)持續(xù)了六個月左右吱涉。這在亞洲出口導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)中最為明顯刹泄。但在歐洲，美國甚至那些受到嚴(yán)重打擊的新興市場如俄羅斯和巴西等國內(nèi)也清晰可見怎爵。

The signals are strongest from the more cyclical parts of the global economy, notably manufacturing. Surveys of purchasing managers in America, the euro zone and Asia show factories getting a lot busier. Global trading hubs such as Taiwan and South Korea are bustling.Taiwan’s National Development Council publishes a composite indicator that tracks the economy’s strength: blue is sluggish, green is stable and red is overheating.The overall economy has been flashing green lights for seven months and is pushing up towards the red zone.

在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中更具周期性特點的經(jīng)濟(jì)部門里特石，這些信號是最強(qiáng)的，特別是制造業(yè)鳖链。在美國姆蘸，歐元區(qū)和亞洲針對采購經(jīng)理的調(diào)查顯示工廠越來越繁忙。全球貿(mào)易中心如臺灣和韓國都是一片繁華景象芙委。臺灣發(fā)展局發(fā)布了一個跟蹤經(jīng)濟(jì)活力的綜合指標(biāo)：藍(lán)色表示蕭條逞敷，綠色表示穩(wěn)定，紅色表示過熱灌侣。整體經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)停留在綠色區(qū)域達(dá)七個月兰粉，而且正在向紅色區(qū)域推進(jìn)。

This reflects, among other things, demand for semiconductors around the world; This February exports from Taiwan were up by 28% compared with 2016. Although that is the most striking example,exports are up elsewhere in the region, too. South Korea’s rose by 20% in February compared with a year earlier. In yuan terms, China’s were 11% higher in the first two months of 2017 than in 2016.

這反映了全球?qū)Π雽?dǎo)體的需求;今年2月臺灣出口量較2016年增長了28％顶瞳。這是最引人注目的例子玖姑，但該地區(qū)其他地方的出口也在增長愕秫。韓國二月份與去年同期相比增長了20％。以人民幣計焰络，中國在2017年前兩個月比2016年同期增長了11％戴甩。

This apparent vigour is in part just a reflection of how bad things looked 12 months ago; suppliers who overdid the gloom in early 2016 are restocking. Asia’s taut supply chains also owe something to the two-to-three-year life-cycle of consumer gadgetry. On March 10th LG Electronics launched its new G6 smartphone. Its larger rival, Samsung, is due to unveil its Galaxy S8 phone by the end of the month; a new iPhone will be out later this year.

這種明顯的活力在一定程度上反映了12個月前的糟糕狀態(tài); 2016年初過分悲觀的供應(yīng)商如今正在補(bǔ)充庫存。亞洲緊繃的供應(yīng)鏈也不能完全滿足只有兩三年生命周期的消費電子產(chǎn)品的需求闪彼。 3月10日LG電子推出了新G6智能手機(jī)甜孤。其更大的競爭對手三星，將是在月底揭開Galaxy S8手機(jī)的面紗;新iPhone將在今年晚些時候推出畏腕。

But the signs of life run deeper than just those specifics would allow. Business spending on machinery and equipment is picking up. A proxy measure based on shipments of capital goods constructed by economists at JP Morgan Chase, a bank, suggests that worldwide equipment spending grew at an annualised rate of 5.25% in the last quarter of 2016.

生發(fā)的跡象比那些小細(xì)節(jié)更深刻缴川，機(jī)械和設(shè)備的業(yè)務(wù)支出正在上升。摩根大通銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家構(gòu)造的基于資本品運輸量的間接測量指標(biāo)表明描馅，2016年第四季度把夸，全球設(shè)備支出以5.25％的年率增長。

The good news goes beyond manufacturing, too. American employers, excluding farms, added 235,000 workers to their payrolls in February, well above the recent average. The European Commission’s economic-sentiment index, based on surveys of service industries, manufacturers,builders and consumers, is as high as it has been since 2011. After a strong fourth quarter,the Bank of Japan revised up its forecast for growth in the current fiscal year from 1% to 1.4%. Such optimism raises two big questions: what is behind this nascent recovery and will it take hold?

好消息超出了制造業(yè)的范圍铭污。2月份恋日，美國雇主（不包括農(nóng)場）的雇傭工人增加了23.5萬，遠(yuǎn)高于近期平均水平嘹狞。對服務(wù)行業(yè)岂膳，制造商，建筑商和消費者的調(diào)查顯示磅网，歐洲委員會的經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣指數(shù)與2011年以來最高水平相當(dāng)谈截。第四季度強(qiáng)勁的表現(xiàn)令日本央行修訂了這一財年的增長預(yù)測，從1％提升至1.4％涧偷。這種樂觀主義引出兩大問題：這次剛剛起步的復(fù)蘇背后的原因是什么簸喂？我們能夠牢牢把握得住嗎？

Lilacs from the dead land

來自死地的丁香

April is the cruellest month,breeding Lilacs out of the dead land

The revival’s roots can be traced to the early months of last year, when a possible calamity was averted. At the end of 2015 stock markets tumbled in response to renewed anxiety about China’s economy.Prices at the factory gate, which had been falling steadily for several years, had started to plunge. There were fears that China would be forced to devalue its currency sharply: a cheaper yuan might spur China’s oversupplied industries to export more, fatten profits and service their growing debts.

復(fù)蘇的源頭可以追溯到去年的最初幾個月嫂丙，當(dāng)時一場可能的災(zāi)難剛剛被避免娘赴。 2015年底，股市因為對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的擔(dān)憂再起而暴跌跟啤。過去幾年只是穩(wěn)定下滑的出廠價格開始暴跌诽表。大家擔(dān)心中國將被迫大幅貶值貨幣：更便宜的人民幣可能刺激中國的過剩產(chǎn)業(yè)輸出更多，獲利更豐并為其日益增長的債務(wù)買單隅肥。

Such a desperate measure would, in effect,have exported its manufacturing deflation to the rest of the world, forcing rivals to cut prices or to devalue in turn. The expectation that China’s economy was weakening pushed raw-material prices to their lowest level since 2009. The oil price briefly sunk below $30 a barrel. That worsened the plight of Brazil and Russia, already mired in deep recessions. It also intensified the pressure to cut investment in America’s shale-oil industry.

這種令人絕望的措施實際上會把中國的制造業(yè)通縮輸出到世界其他國家竿奏，迫使競爭對手降低價格或隨之貶值。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟的預(yù)期將原材料價格推至2009年以來的最低水平腥放。油價短暫下跌至每桶30美元以下泛啸。這使已深陷衰退泥沼中的巴西和俄羅斯雪上加霜。這也加劇了美國頁巖油產(chǎn)業(yè)削減投資的壓力秃症。

To stabilise the yuan in the face of rapid outflows of capital, China spent $300bn of its foreign-currency reserves between November 2015 and January 2016. Capital controls were tightened to stop money leaking abroad. Banks juiced up the economy with faster credit growth. With capital now boxed in, much of it flowed into local property: house prices soared, first in the big cities and then beyond. Sales taxes on small cars were reduced by half. Between them,these controls and stimuli did the trick.

面對資本的快速流出候址，為穩(wěn)定人民幣吕粹，中國從2015年11月至2016年1月間花費了3000億美元外匯儲備。資本控制被收緊以阻止資金流向國外岗仑。銀行用更快的信貸增長來刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長匹耕。隨著被控制在國內(nèi)，資本大部分流入了房地產(chǎn)市場：房價飆升荠雕，首先在大城市稳其，然后擴(kuò)散到其他城市。小型汽車的消費稅減少了一半炸卑。在它們之間既鞠，這些控制和刺激解決了問題。

Soon stocks of raw materials that had been hurriedly run down started to look skimpy. Iron-ore prices jumped by 19% in just one day last March. Curbs on Chinese coal production underpinned a mini-revival in global prices. Steel prices rose sharply, helped by the closure of a few high-cost mills as well as more construction spending. Oil climbed back above $50 a barrel(though it has slipped back a bit recently).

不久盖文，匆匆壓縮下來的原材料庫存開始好像不夠用了嘱蛋。鐵礦石價格在去年三月僅一天內(nèi)就上漲了19％。對中國煤炭生產(chǎn)的遏制支撐了全球價格的小幅復(fù)蘇椅寺。鋼鐵價格也大幅上漲浑槽，原因是幾家高成本鋼廠的關(guān)閉以及更多的建筑支出蒋失。原油價格爬升到每桶50美元以上（雖然最近已經(jīng)下滑了一些）返帕。

By the end of the year producer-price inflation in China—and across Asia—was positive again. And China’s nominal GDP, which had slowed more than real GDP, sped up again. Central bankers, who had been employing various measures to forestall global deflation, were mightily relieved. On March 9th Mario Draghi, boss of the European Central Bank(ECB), proudly declared that the risk of deflation had “l(fā)argely disappeared”.

到去年年底，中國和亞洲的生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)（PPI）由負(fù)轉(zhuǎn)正篙挽。中國的名義GDP（比真實GDP增長慢一些）加速了荆萤。采取了各種措施防止全球通縮的中央銀行家如釋重負(fù)。 3月9日铣卡，歐洲中央銀行（ECB）波士馬里奧·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）自豪地宣布链韭，通縮風(fēng)險“基本消失了”。

His relief was a recognition that, though a surge in inflation will flood the economy’s engine, a gentle dose can serve as a helpful lubricant. At a global level, a bit more factory-gate inflation lifts profits, since a lot of manufacturers’ production costs are largely fixed. Fatter profits notionly make corporate debt less burdensome, they also free cash for capital spending, which creates further demand for businesses in a virtuous circle.

他放下心來是認(rèn)識到煮落，雖然大水漫灌的通脹將使經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)動機(jī)熄火敞峭，溫和的劑量可以作為有用的潤滑劑。在全球?qū)用娌醭穑叩某鰪S價格提高了利潤旋讹，因為很多制造商的生產(chǎn)成本在很大程度上是固定的。更多的利潤意味著企業(yè)債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)減輕轿衔，他們有更多的自由現(xiàn)金進(jìn)行資本支出沉迹，在一個良性循環(huán)中進(jìn)一步創(chuàng)造商業(yè)需求。

Since worries about China and deflation receded, spending on things that show some faith in future income has indeed begun to stir. A revival in producer prices and thus profits is leading to business investment around the world. In the last quarter of 2016 business spending in Japan rose at an annualised rate of 8%, according to official GDP figures. Gartner, a tech consultancy, predicted in December that consumers and companies would increase their spending on IT by 2.7% in 2017, up from 0.5% in 2016. John Lovelock, a research analystat Gartner, says the biggest jump in spending is forecast for the Asia-Pacific region.

由于對中國和通縮的擔(dān)憂消退害驹，消費支出確實已經(jīng)開始蠢蠢欲動鞭呕，這顯示了大家對未來收入的信心。生產(chǎn)者價格和利潤的復(fù)蘇促進(jìn)了全球的商業(yè)投資宛官。根據(jù)官方GDP數(shù)據(jù)葫松，2016年第四季度日本企業(yè)支出按年率增長了8％瓦糕。12月份，技術(shù)咨詢公司Gartner預(yù)計腋么，2017年消費者和公司的IT支出將增加2.7％刻坊，高于2016年的0.5％。Gartner的分析師約翰·洛夫洛夫（John Lovelock）表示党晋，亞太是預(yù)測中上升幅度最大的地區(qū)谭胚。

Continuous as the stars that shine?

如繁星燦爛，連綿不絕未玻？

In America imports of both consumer goods and capital goods are up. There has been speculation that the “animal spirits”of business folk have been lifted by Mr Trump’s election in November, and that cuts in tax and regulations, and a subsequent return of the estimated $1trn of untaxed cash held abroad by companies based in America, will fuel a big boom in business investment.

美國的消費品和資本品的進(jìn)口都增加了灾而。有人猜測，特朗普總統(tǒng)在11月的當(dāng)選扳剿，解放了商業(yè)伙伴的“動物精神”旁趟； 減稅，放松監(jiān)管庇绽，以及隨后美國公司在國外的1萬億美元未稅現(xiàn)金的回流锡搜，將推動商業(yè)投資的大幅增長。