英文部分來自“經(jīng)濟學(xué)人”雜志。譯文是個人學(xué)習(xí)、欣賞語言之用显押，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載或用于任何商業(yè)用途。本人同意簡書平臺在接獲有關(guān)著作權(quán)人的通知后傻挂，刪除文章乘碑。
A synchronised global upturn is underway. Thank stimulus, not the populists
全球經(jīng)濟正在同步復(fù)蘇。這要感謝刺激政策金拒，而不是民粹主義者兽肤。
Economic and political cycles have a habit of being out of sync. Just ask George Bush senior,who lost the presidential election in 1992 because voters blamed him for the recent recession.Or Chancellor Gerhard Schr?der, booted out by German voters in 2005 after imposing painful reforms, only to see Angela Merkel reap the rewards.
經(jīng)濟和政治周期不同步是慣例≈巢希看看老布什（George Bush senior）轿衔，他在1992年的總統(tǒng)大選中敗北，因為選民把最近的經(jīng)濟衰退歸咎于他睦疫。類似的害驹，由于推行痛苦的改革，總理格哈德?施羅德在2005年大選中被德國選民一腳踢開蛤育，只能眼睜睜看著安格拉?默克爾下山摘桃子宛官。
Today, almost ten years after the most severe financial crisis since the Depression, a broad-based economic upswing is at last under way. In America, Europe, Asia and the emerging markets, for the first time since a brief rebound in 2010, all the burners are firing at once.
現(xiàn)在，1929年大蕭條以來瓦糕，最嚴(yán)重的金融危機爆發(fā)近十年之后底洗，基礎(chǔ)廣泛的經(jīng)濟上升終于開始了。美國咕娄，歐洲亥揖，亞洲以及新興市場國家，所有引擎同時啟動。自2010年經(jīng)濟短暫反彈以來费变，這還是第一次摧扇。
But the political mood is sour. A populist rebellion, nurtured by years of sluggish growth, is still spreading. Globalisation is out of favour. An economic nationalist sits in the White House. This week all eyes were on Dutch elections featuring Geert Wilders, a Dutch Islamophobic ideologue , just one of many European malcontents.
但政治氣氛乏善可陳。多年來停滯的經(jīng)濟養(yǎng)大了民粹主義反對派并繼續(xù)滋生蔓延挚歧。全球化不受歡迎扛稽。一位經(jīng)濟民族主義者入主了白宮。本周滑负，所有人都在關(guān)注荷蘭選舉在张，焦點是荷蘭的一位仇視伊斯蘭的思想家吉爾特·威爾德斯（Geert Wilders）。他只是歐洲許多不滿者的一個代表矮慕。
This dissonance is dangerous. If populist politicians win credit for a more buoyant economy, their policies will gain credence,with potentially devastating effects. As a long-awaited upswing lifts spirits and spreads confidence, the big question is: what lies behind it?
這種不協(xié)調(diào)是危險的帮匾。如果民粹主義政治家因為更加繁榮的經(jīng)濟贏得了信任，他們的政策就將獲得信用憑證凡傅。這具有潛在的破壞性后果辟狈。當(dāng)期待已久的經(jīng)濟上升提振了精神，傳遞了信心時夏跷，最大的問題是：其背后的原因是什么哼转？
All together now
現(xiàn)在都在一起了
The past decade has been marked by false dawns, in which optimism at the start of a year has been undone—whether by the euro crisis, wobbles in emerging markets, the collapse of the oil price or fears of a meltdown in China. America’s economy has kept growing, but always into a headwind (see page 69). A year ago, the Federal Reserve had expected to raise interest rates four times in 2016. Global frailties put paid to that.
黎明曙光的假象是過去十年的標(biāo)志，年初的樂觀主義總是歸于沉寂槽华。無論是由于歐元危機壹蔓，新興市場波動，石油價格崩潰猫态，還是擔(dān)心中國的崩潰佣蓉。美國的經(jīng)濟一直保持增長，但總是逆風(fēng)而行亲雪。一年前勇凭，美聯(lián)儲曾預(yù)計2016年加息4次。全球疲軟卻使之煙消云散义辕。
Now things are different. This week the Fed raised rates for the second time in three months—thanks partly to the vigour of the American economy, but also because of growth everywhere else. Fears about Chinese overcapacity, and of a yuan devaluation, have receded. In February factory-gate inflation was close to a nine-year high. In Japan in the fourth quarter capital expenditure grew at its fastest rate in three years. The euro area has been gathering speed since 2015. The European Commission’s economic-sentiment index is at its highest since 2011; euro-zone unemployment is at its lowest since 2009.
現(xiàn)在情勢有所不同虾标。本周美聯(lián)儲三個月內(nèi)第二次提高了利率 - 部分是由于美國經(jīng)濟的活力，也是因為全球各地的增長灌砖。對于中國產(chǎn)能過剩璧函，人民幣貶值的擔(dān)憂已經(jīng)消退。 2月份基显，出廠價格上漲接近九年來的高點蘸吓。日本第四季度的資本支出以三年來最快的速度增長。2015年以來歐元區(qū)一直在加速撩幽。歐洲委員會的經(jīng)濟信心指數(shù)處于2011年以來的最高點; 歐元區(qū)失業(yè)率達(dá)到2009年以來的最低水平库继。
The bellwethers of global activity look sprightly, too. In February South Korea, a proxy for world trade, notched up export growth above 20%. Taiwanese manufacturers have posted 12 consecutive months of expansion. Even in places inured to recession the worst is over. The Brazilian economy has been shrinking for eight quarters but, with inflation expectations tamed, interest rates are now falling. Brazil and Russia are likely to add to global GDP this year, not subtract from it. The Institute of International Finance reckons that in January the developing world hit its fastest monthly rate of growth since 2011.
全球活動的領(lǐng)頭羊們也步履輕盈。二月份，韓國作為世界貿(mào)易的代表宪萄，出口激增超過20％舅桩。臺灣制造商已連續(xù)12個月擴張。甚至那些已經(jīng)習(xí)慣了經(jīng)濟衰退的國家雨膨，最壞的時候也已經(jīng)過去。巴西經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)收縮了八個季度读串，但隨著通脹預(yù)期歸于平靜聊记，利率現(xiàn)在開始下降。和以往不同恢暖，巴西和俄羅斯今年將為全球GDP增長錦上添花排监。國際金融研究所估計1月份，發(fā)展中國家創(chuàng)下了2011年以來最快的月度增長率杰捂。
This is not to say the world economy is back to normal. Oil prices fell by10% in the week to March 15th on renewed fears of oversupply; a sustained fall would hurt the economies of producers more than it would benefit consumers. China’s build-up of debt is of enduring concern. Productivity growth in the rich world remains weak. Outside America, wages are still growing slowly. And in America, surging business confidence has yet to translate into surging investment.
這并不是說世界經(jīng)濟已恢復(fù)正常舆床。由于再次擔(dān)心供給過剩，在3月15日的這一周嫁佳，石油價格下跌了10％; 持續(xù)下降的油價挨队，對生產(chǎn)者經(jīng)濟的傷害將超過消費者從中的受益。中國債務(wù)累積一直讓人擔(dān)心蒿往。富裕國家的生產(chǎn)力增長仍然疲軟盛垦。美國之外，工資仍然增長緩慢瓤漏。而美國腾夯，商業(yè)信心的增長還沒有轉(zhuǎn)化為投資的增長。
Entrenching the recovery calls for a delicate balancing-act.As inflation expectations rise, central banks will have to weigh the pressure to tighten policy against the risk that, if they go too fast, bond markets and borrowers will suffer. Europe is especially vulnerable, because the European Central Bankis reaching the legal limits of the bond-buying programme it has used to keep money cheap in weak economies.
鞏固經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇需要微妙的平衡藝術(shù)蔬充。隨著通脹預(yù)期的上升蝶俱，在收緊政策的壓力和由于步伐太快而造成債券市場和借款人受損的風(fēng)險之間，央行將必須權(quán)衡利弊饥漫，有所取舍榨呆。歐洲特別脆弱，因為歐洲央行達(dá)到了債券購買計劃的法律上限趾浅。該計劃用來保持經(jīng)濟疲軟時期低廉的貨幣獲取成本愕提。
The biggest risk, though, is the lessons politicians draw.Donald Trump is singing his own praises after good job and confidence numbers. It is true that the stock market and business sentiment have been fired up by promises of deregulation and a fiscal boost. But Mr Trump’s claims to have magically jump-started job creation are sheer braggadocio. The American economy has added jobs for 77 months in a row.
然而，最大的風(fēng)險是政治家?guī)淼慕逃?xùn)皿哨。漂亮的工作和信心數(shù)據(jù)公布后唐納德·特朗普在為自己大唱贊歌浅侨。誠然，股票市場和商業(yè)信心由于放松管制和財政擴張的承諾而爆發(fā)证膨。但是如输，特朗普聲稱擁有魔力般的快速啟動崗位創(chuàng)造能力是純粹的自吹自擂。美國經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)連續(xù)77個月增加了就業(yè)崗位。
No Keynes, no gains
沒有凱恩斯就沒有收獲
Most important, the upswing has nothing to do with Mr Trump’s “America First” economic nationalism. If anything,the global upswing vindicates the experts that today’s populists often decry. Economists have long argued that recoveries from financial crashes take a long time: research into 100 banking crises by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University suggests that, on average, incomes get back to precrisis levels only after eight long years. Most economists also argue that the best way to recover after a debt crisis is to cleanup balance sheets quickly, keep monetary policy loose and apply fiscal stimulus wherever prudently possible.
最重要的是不见，經(jīng)濟上升與特朗普的“美國第一”經(jīng)濟民族主義沒有半毛錢關(guān)系澳化。甚至可以說，全球的上升為那些經(jīng)常被如今的民粹主義者強烈批評的專家們做了辯護稳吮。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家一直認(rèn)為缎谷，金融危機的復(fù)蘇需要很長時間：哈佛大學(xué)的Carmen Reinhart和Kenneth Rogoff對100次銀行危機的深入研究表明，平均來說灶似，要經(jīng)過8年時間列林，收入才能恢復(fù)到危機前的水平。大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家還認(rèn)為酪惭，在債務(wù)危機之后最佳恢復(fù)方式是迅速清理資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表希痴，保持貨幣政策寬松，并謹(jǐn)慎地在任何可能的地方實施財政刺激政策春感。
Today’s recovery validates that prescription. The Fed pinned interest rates to the floor until full employment was insight. The ECB’s bond-buying programme has kept borrowing costs in crisis-prone countries tolerable, though Europe’s misplaced emphasis on austerity, recently relaxed, made the job harder. In Japan rises in VAT have scuppered previous recoveries;this time the government wisely deferred an increase until at least 2019.
今天的復(fù)蘇證明處方有效砌创。美聯(lián)儲把利率壓到最低，直到充分就業(yè)深入鲫懒。歐洲央行的債券購買計劃使有危機風(fēng)險國家的借款成本保持在可以承受的范圍嫩实，盡管歐洲曾錯誤地強調(diào)緊縮，使這項工作變得更困難刀疙。緊縮最近也已放松舶赔。在日本，增值稅的上升使以前的復(fù)蘇夭折; 這次政府聰明地把增加計劃推遲到至少2019年谦秧。
The tussle over who created the recovery is about more than bragging rights. An endorsement for populist economics would favour insurgent parties in countries like France, where the far-right Marine Le Pen is standing for president. It would also favour the wrong policies. Mr Trump’s proposed tax cuts would pump up the economy that now least needs support—and complicate the Fed’s task. Fortified by misplaced belief in their own world view, the administration’s protectionists might urge Mr Trump to rip up the infrastructure of globalisation(bypassing the World Trade Organisation in pursuing grievances against China, say), risking a trade war. A fiscal splurge at home and a stronger dollar would widen America’s trade deficit, which may strengthen their hand. Populists deserve no credit for the upsurge. But they could yet snuff it out.
誰帶來了復(fù)蘇的爭論不只是吹牛的比拼竟纳。對民粹主義經(jīng)濟學(xué)的支持將有利于法國等國家的反對黨。法國極右翼的瑪麗安勒龐正在競選總統(tǒng)疚鲤。它也會粉飾那些錯誤的政策锥累。特朗普提出的減稅計劃將刺激現(xiàn)在最不需要幫助的經(jīng)濟，并使美聯(lián)儲的任務(wù)復(fù)雜化集歇。由于他們世界觀的錯誤信念被強化了桶略，政府中的保護主義者可能會敦促特朗普毀掉全球化的基礎(chǔ)（繞過世貿(mào)組織對中國進(jìn)行申訴）艰管，這會冒著貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的風(fēng)險圆裕。國內(nèi)的財政揮霍和美元走強將擴大美國的貿(mào)易赤字，這可能增強他們的地位得运。全球經(jīng)濟高漲的榮譽不歸功于民粹主義者姑蓝。但他們能毀掉它鹅心。
