The virus is coming. Governments have an enormous amount of work to do 病毒來了绒窑， 各國政府準(zhǔn)備好了嗎窥翩？

1090 words

IN PUBLIC HEALTH, honesty is worth a lot more than hope. It has become clear in the past week that the new viral disease,covid-19, which struck China at the start of December will spread around the world. Many governments have been signalling that they will stop the disease. Instead, they need to start preparing people for the?onslaught.

1. onslaught ~ (against/on sb/sth)~ (of sth) a strong or violent attack 攻擊；猛攻

在公共衛(wèi)生領(lǐng)域中啼染，誠實比希望更有價值掏觉。 在過去一周中瞎饲，我們看到很明顯的趨勢，在12月初襲擊中國的新型病毒性疾病covid-19將在全球蔓延。 許多政府一直在暗示他們能消滅這種疾病椭蹄，筆者認(rèn)為正相反矮瘟，他們需要開始為襲擊做好準(zhǔn)備。

Officials will have to act when they do not have all the facts, because much about the virus is unknown. A broad guess is that 25-70% of the population of any infected country may catch the disease. China’s experience suggests that, of the cases that are detected, roughly 80% will be mild, 15% will need treatment in hospital and 5% will require intensive care.?Experts say that the virus may be five to ten times as lethal as seasonal flu, which, with a fatality rate of 0.1%, kills 60,000 Americans in a bad year.?Across the world, the death toll could be in the millions.

官員們必須要在沒有全部事實的情況下采取行動塑娇，因為有關(guān)該病毒的許多信息尚不得而知澈侠。 廣泛的猜測是，任何受感染國家的25-70％的人口都可能感染該疾病埋酬。 中國的經(jīng)驗表明哨啃，在發(fā)現(xiàn)的病例中，大約80％為輕度写妥，15％需要住院治療拳球，5％需要重癥監(jiān)護(hù)。專家說珍特，這種病毒的致死性可能是季節(jié)性流感的五至十倍祝峻。就算致命性流感的致死率低為0.1％，在運勢不好的一年也能殺死6萬美國人扎筒。 在世界范圍內(nèi)莱找，死亡人數(shù)可能高達(dá)數(shù)百萬。

If the pandemic is like a very severe flu, models point to global economic growth being two percentage points lower over 12 months, at around 1%; if it is worse still, the world economy could shrink. As that prospect sank in during the week, theS&P?500 fell by 8% (see Finance section).

如果冠狀肺炎像一場嚴(yán)重的流感嗜桌，增長模型表明全球經(jīng)濟(jì)在過去12個月下降了兩個百分點奥溺，低至約1％。如果情況進(jìn)一步惡化骨宠，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)可能萎縮浮定。僅在一周內(nèi)的預(yù)期下降，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)就下跌了8％（請參閱財務(wù)部分）层亿。

Yet all those outcomes depend greatly on what governments choose to do, as China shows. Hubei province, the origin of the epidemic, has a population of 59m. It has seen more than 65,000 cases and a fatality rate of 2.9%. By contrast, the rest of China, which contains 1.3bn people, has suffered fewer than 13,000 cases with a fatality rate of just 0.4%.?Chinese officials at first suppressed news of the disease, a grave error that allowed the virus to take hold. But even before it had spread much outside Hubei, they imposed the largest and most?draconian?quarantine in history. Factories shut, public transport stopped and people were ordered indoors. This raised awareness and changed behaviour. Without it, China would by now have registered many millions of cases and tens of thousands of deaths.

2. draconian /dr??ko?ni?n/ ( formal ) ( of a law, punishment, etc. 法律桦卒、懲罰等 ) extremely cruel and severe 德拉古式的；嚴(yán)酷的匿又；殘忍的

但是方灾，正如中國所表明的那樣，所有這些結(jié)果在很大程度上取決于政府的選擇琳省。湖北省是該病的起源地迎吵，人口為5900萬。目前確診病例達(dá)到65,000例针贬，致死率為2.9％击费。相比之下，擁有13億人口的中國其他地區(qū)合計確診病例不到13,000例桦他，致死率僅為0.4％蔫巩。在疾病傳播的初期谆棱，中國官員掩蓋住了該病的消息，這是一個嚴(yán)重的錯誤圆仔，這使得該病毒得以流行垃瞧。但是，即使在湖北以外的地區(qū)廣泛傳播之前坪郭，他們還是實行了歷史上規(guī)模最大个从，最嚴(yán)厲的隔離措施。工廠關(guān)閉歪沃，公共交通停止嗦锐，人們居家隔離。這些措施提高了人們的意識并改變了行為沪曙。沒有它奕污，到現(xiàn)在中國將目睹成千上萬的病例和數(shù)以萬計的死亡。

The World Health Organisation was this week full of praise for China’s approach. That does not, however, mean it is a model for the rest of the world.?All quarantines carry a cost—not just in lost output, but also in the suffering of those locked away, some of whom?forgo?medical treatment for other conditions.?It is still too soon to tell whether this price was worth the gains. As China seeks to revive its economy by relaxing the quarantine, it could well be hit by a second wave of infections.?Given that uncertainty, few?democracies?would be willing to?trample over?individuals to the extent China has.And, as the chaotic epidemic in Iran shows, not all authoritarian governments are capable of it.

3. forgo v.? /f???ɡ??/? ( forego ) [ VN ] ( formal ) to decide not to have or do sth that you would like to have or do 放棄液走，棄絕（想做的事或想得之物）

世界衛(wèi)生組織本周對中國的做法贊不絕口碳默。 但是，這并不意味著它是世界其他地區(qū)的榜樣缘眶。 所有隔離措施都有代價嘱根，不僅造成產(chǎn)量損失，而且還會給那些被封鎖的人帶來痛苦磅崭，還有很多人拖延了其他疾病的醫(yī)治儿子。 現(xiàn)在還不能斷言這個代價是否值得瓦哎，隨著中國通過較為寬松的隔離政策來振興經(jīng)濟(jì)砸喻，很可能會受到第二波感染的打擊。 考慮到這種不確定性蒋譬，幾乎沒有哪個民主國家會愿意付出這么大的代價割岛，而且，正如伊朗混亂的疫情所表明的那樣犯助，并不是所有的政府都能做到這一點癣漆。

Yet even if many countries could not, or should not, exactly copy China,?its experience holds three important lessons—to talk to the public, to slow the transmission of the disease and to prepare health systems for a spike in demand.

然而，即使許多國家不能或不應(yīng)該完全照搬中國剂买，其寶貴經(jīng)驗也給出了三點重要的教訓(xùn)：與公眾對話惠爽，減緩疾病的傳播速度以及做好衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)的準(zhǔn)備為應(yīng)對需求激增。

A good example of communication is America’s Centres for Disease Control, which issued a clear, unambiguous warning on February 25th. A bad one is Iran’s deputy health minister, who?succumbed?to the virus during a press conference designed to show that the government is on top of the epidemic.

4. succumb /s??k?m/? V-I If you succumb to temptation or pressure, you do something that you want to do, or that other people want you to do, although you feel it might be wrong. (向誘惑瞬哼、壓力) 屈服

美國疾病控制中心就是一個很好的例子婚肆，該中心在2月25日發(fā)出了明確、指令清晰的警告坐慰。 伊朗副衛(wèi)生部長哈里奇较性，就是個反面教材，他于24日主持應(yīng)對疫情工作出席公開記者會時，已出現(xiàn)明顯咳嗽赞咙、冒汗等情況责循，身體狀況似乎欠佳。當(dāng)時攀操，他公開表示伊朗疫情已差不多穩(wěn)定下來院仿。直至今日，已被確診感染新冠肺炎速和，目前正接受隔離意蛀。

Even well-meaning attempts to?sugarcoat?the truth are self-defeating, because they spread mistrust, rumours and, ultimately, fear. The signal that the disease must be stopped at any cost, or that it is too terrifying to talk about, frustrates efforts to prepare for the virus’s inevitable arrival. As governments?dither, conspiracy theories coming out of Russia are already sowing doubt, perhaps to hinder and discredit the response of democracies.

5. sugarcoat vt. 裹以糖衣；粉飾

6. dither /?d?e?(r)/? [ V ] ~ (over sth) to hesitate about what to do because you are unable to decide 猶豫不決健芭；躊躇

在這個時候县钥，甚至是善意的謊言都是不攻自破的，因為它們散布著不信任慈迈、謠言若贮，甚至是恐懼。 比如反應(yīng)過度的“該疾病必須不惜一切代價予以停止”言論痒留，或者“它太可怕了而不敢說”谴麦，這會讓積極應(yīng)對病毒的努力和信心受挫。隨著各國政府的恐慌伸头，來自俄羅斯的陰謀論撒下了懷疑的種子匾效，也許是為了阻礙和抹殺民主國家的應(yīng)對積極性。

The best time to inform people about the disease is before the epidemic. One message is that fatality is correlated with age. If you are over 80 or you have an underlying condition you are at high risk; if you are under 50 you are not. Now is the moment to persuade the future 80% of mild cases to stay at home and not rush to a hospital. People need to learn to wash their hands often and to avoid touching their face. Businesses need continuity plans, to let staff work from home and?to ensure a stand-in can replace a vital employee who is ill or caring for a child or parent.?The model is Singapore, which learned fromSARS, another coronavirus, that clear, early communication limits panic.

清楚告知人們疾病信息的最佳時間是在疾病流行之前恤磷。 一是死亡率與年齡有關(guān)面哼， 如果你超過80歲或有潛在疾病，則處于高風(fēng)險之中扫步； 如果你未滿50歲魔策，則不是高風(fēng)險人群。 現(xiàn)階段最重要的是河胎，說服未來80％的輕癥患者留在家里而不要急于往醫(yī)院跑闯袒。 人們要學(xué)會經(jīng)常洗手并避免觸摸臉部，企業(yè)需要緊急應(yīng)對計劃游岳，讓員工在家中工作政敢，并確保一些生病或需要照顧孩子、父母的重要員工有接替的人員來完成工作胚迫。在這點上喷户，新加坡是個很好的范例，它從SARS那里學(xué)到了經(jīng)驗晌区，利用早期交流避免了恐慌摩骨。

China’s second lesson is that governments can slow the spread of the disease. Flattening the spike of the epidemic means that health systems are less overwhelmed, which saves lives. If, like flu, the virus turns out to be seasonal, some cases could be delayed until next winter, by which time doctors will understand better how to cope with it. By then, new vaccines and antiviral drugs may be available.

中國的第二個教訓(xùn)是政府可以減緩疾病的傳播通贞。 降低疫情高峰意味著減輕衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)的重負(fù)，把更多精力放在挽救生命上恼五。 如果像流感一樣昌罩，這種病毒是季節(jié)性的，則某些情況可能會推遲到下個冬天灾馒，屆時醫(yī)生將有更全面的了解茎用，并且知道如何應(yīng)對。 屆時睬罗，可能會出現(xiàn)新的疫苗和抗病毒藥物轨功。

Influenza, like many other respiratory diseases, thrives in cold and humid air. If covid-19 behaves the same way, spreading less as the weather gets warmer and drier, flattening the curve will bring an extra benefit. As winter turns to spring then summer, the reproductive rate will drop of its own accord. Dragging out the early stage of the pandemic means fewer deaths before the summer hiatus provides time to stockpile treatments and develop new drugs and vaccines—efforts towards both of which are already under way.

流感和許多其他呼吸道疾病一樣，在寒冷潮濕的空氣中繁殖容达。如果covid-19表現(xiàn)出相同的方式古涧，隨著天氣變暖和變干，擴(kuò)散更少花盐，變平的曲線將帶來額外的好處羡滑。冬去春來，夏去夏來算芯，繁殖率自然會下降柒昏。拖延大流行的早期階段意味著在夏季停歇前死亡人數(shù)減少，從而有時間儲備治療和開發(fā)新藥和疫苗——這兩方面的努力已經(jīng)在進(jìn)行中熙揍。

When countries have few cases, they can follow each one, tracing contacts and isolating them. But when the disease is spreading in the community, that becomes?futile. Governments need to prepare for the moment when they will switch to?social distancing, which may include cancelling public events, closing schools,?staggering?work hours and so on. Given the uncertainties, governments will have to choose how?draconian?they want to be. They should be guided by science. International travel bans look decisive, but they offer little protection because people find ways to move. They also signal that the problem is “them” infecting “us”, rather than limiting infections among “us”. Likewise, if the disease has spread widely, as in Italy and South Korea, “Wuhan-lite” quarantines of whole towns offer?scant?protection at a high cost.

7. fu·tile adj.? /?fju?ta?l/? having no purpose because there is no chance of success 徒然的职祷；徒勞的；無效的

8. social distancing 社交距離

9. stagger [ VN ] to arrange for events that would normally happen at the same time to start or happen at different times 使交錯届囚；使錯開

10. dra·co·nian adj.? /dr??k??ni?n/? ( formal ) ( of a law, punishment, etc. 法律有梆、懲罰等 ) extremely cruel and severe 德拉古式的；嚴(yán)酷的奖亚；殘忍的

11. scant adj.? /sk?nt/? [ only before noun ] hardly any; not very much and not as much as there should be 一丁點的淳梦；微小的；不足的昔字；欠缺的

12. Scrub up 清洗

當(dāng)國家病例很少時，他們可以追蹤每個病例首繁，追蹤聯(lián)系并將其隔離作郭。 但是，當(dāng)疾病在社區(qū)中傳播時弦疮，就沒有那么細(xì)致了夹攒。 政府要為過渡到社會隔離做好準(zhǔn)備，這可能包括取消公共活動胁塞，關(guān)閉學(xué)校咏尝，延長復(fù)工時間等压语。 考慮到不確定性，政府將不得不選擇自己想成為什么樣的嚴(yán)酷人物编检， 它們應(yīng)以科學(xué)為指導(dǎo)胎食。 國際旅行禁令看起來非常堅決，但苦于人們依然能找到出行途徑允懂，因此該禁令的作用其實很小厕怜。此外，其他地區(qū)表達(dá)問題的方式是“他們”感染了“我們”蕾总，而不是“我們”要限制“彼此”之間的感染粥航。 同樣，如果這種疾病已經(jīng)廣泛傳播生百，例如在意大利和韓國递雀，則整個城鎮(zhèn)的“武漢輕式”隔離所都將以高昂的代價提供有限的保護(hù)。?

The third lesson is to prepare health systems for what is to come. That?entails?painstaking?logistical planning. Hospitals need supplies of gowns, masks, gloves, oxygen and drugs. They should already be conserving them. They will run short of equipment, including?ventilators. They need a scheme for how to set aside?wards and floors?for covid-19 patients, for how to cope if staff fall ill, and for how to choose between patients if they are overwhelmed. By now, this work should have been done.

13. en·tail v.? /?n?te?l/? [ VN -ing ] to involve sth that cannot be avoided 牽涉蚀浆；需要映之；使必要

14. pains·tak·ing adj.? /?pe?nzte?k??/? [ usually before noun ] needing a lot of care, effort and attention to detail 需細(xì)心的；辛苦的蜡坊；需專注的

15. ven·ti·la·tor n.? /?vent?le?t?(r)/? 1. a device or an opening for letting fresh air come into a room, etc. 通風(fēng)設(shè)備杠输；通風(fēng)口; 2. a piece of equipment with a pump that helps sb to breathe by sending air in and out of their lungs 通氣機(jī)；呼吸器

16. wards and floors 病房和地板

第三課是為未來的衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)做準(zhǔn)備秕衙。 這需要完備的后勤計劃—醫(yī)院需要提供防護(hù)服蠢甲、口罩、手套据忘、氧氣罐和藥品鹦牛，他們應(yīng)該從現(xiàn)在開始增加儲備了； 他們會缺少包括呼吸機(jī)在內(nèi)的醫(yī)療設(shè)備勇吊；他們需要找到一個方法為covid-19患者騰出病房曼追；如何應(yīng)對工作人員生病汉规；以及如何在突增的患者之間做出選擇礼殊。至此，這項工作應(yīng)該已經(jīng)完成针史。

This virus has already exposed the strengths and weaknesses of China’s?authoritarianism. It will test all the political systems with which it comes into contact, in both rich and developing countries.?China has bought governments time to prepare for a pandemic.?They should use it.■

這種病毒暴露出中國政府的優(yōu)點和缺點晶伦，其后它將測試發(fā)達(dá)國家、發(fā)展中國家以及所有與病毒有接觸的政治制度啄枕。 中國為各國政府爭取的時間婚陪，他們應(yīng)該充分利用好它。

THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN