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Manila.Rodrigo Duterte’s bloody war on drugs is impeding the sensible bits of his agenda

馬尼拉。羅德里戈·杜特爾特針對毒品的血腥戰(zhàn)爭損害了他計劃中的明智之處掸屡。

Political norms may be crumbling all around the world, but citing Adolf Hitler as an inspiration remains a no-no almost everywhere. That did not stop Rodrigo Duterte, the outspoken president of the Philippines, who declared in September that he wanted to do to Filipino drug addicts what Hitler had done to Jews.

政治規(guī)范可能正在世界各地崩潰中仅财，但把阿道夫·希特勒作為靈感之源在任何地方都是一個禁忌碗淌。這并沒有阻止口無遮攔的菲律賓總統(tǒng)羅德里戈·杜特爾特（Rodrigo Duterte）。9月份他宣布將對菲律賓的吸毒成癮者施行希特勒對待猶太人所做的相同的手段风喇。

So far, Mr Duterte’s drug war has seen more than 7,000 drug suspects killed by police, vigilantes and rivals (the three categories overlap). Most Filipinos are enthusiastic, albeit nervous for their safety; many foreigners are appalled. Love it or hate it, the campaign has totally overshadowed Mr Duterte’s eight months in office. Yet Filipinos elected Mr Duterte not just for his “Duterte Harry” approach to crime, but because of a much broader pledge to upend the status quo by elbowing aside entrenched elites, reducing yawning inequality and repairing crumbling infrastructure. In addition to its terrible cost in lives, Mr Duterte’s anti-drugs crusade risks becoming a distraction from the many more constructive items on his agenda.

到目前為止，杜特爾特總統(tǒng)的緝毒戰(zhàn)爭已經(jīng)使7000多名毒品嫌疑人被警察还蹲，聯(lián)防隊員或競爭對手絞殺（三個分類有重疊）。大多數(shù)菲律賓人都充滿熱情潭兽，雖然也擔心他們自身的安全; 但許多外國人卻深感震驚斗遏。愛也好恨也好，這場運動完全籠罩了杜特爾特執(zhí)政的頭八個月账蓉。然而菲律賓人選擇杜特爾特不僅僅是因為他的“杜特爾特式打擊”犯罪的方法逾一，而是因為一個更廣泛的承諾-通過排擠根深蒂固的精英，減少令人厭倦的不平等和修復崩潰的基礎設施來改變現(xiàn)狀箱玷。除了給人民的生活帶來極高的成本，杜特爾特的反毒行動冒著把注意力從更具建設性的計劃中分散的風險波丰。

The most important measure Mr Duterte’s administration has so far presented to Congress, where his supporters hold a hefty majority, is the first of five ambitioustax-reform bills. It would lower the top personal income-tax rate from 32% (relativelyhigh for the region) to 25%, and would raise the threshold at which tax becomes payable. To offset those losses, the bill would increase taxes on fuel and vehicles. Thesecond bill, which the government plans to introduce later this year, would reducethe corporate income-tax rate from 30% (also high for the region) to 25%, while trimmingtax breaks. Later measures would lower inheritance taxes, make more goodsand services subject to value-added tax (VAT) and raise taxes on alcohol, cigarettesand, perhaps, sugary drinks.

杜特爾特在國會中的支持者占絕大多數(shù)掰烟。這個政府迄今為止向國會提出的最重要的舉措是扩灯，五個雄心勃勃的稅務改革法案中的第一個。它將個人所得稅率從最高32％（在該地區(qū)相對較高）降至25％惧磺，并將提高應納稅的門檻捻撑。為抵消由此帶來的損失，該法案將增加燃油和車輛稅番捂。政府還計劃在今年晚些時候導入第二個法案江解。這將減少企業(yè)所得稅率，從30％（在該地區(qū)也是比較高的）降至25％鳖枕，同時調整稅收減免桨螺。后續(xù)措施還包括降低遺產(chǎn)稅，更多的貨物和服務開具增值稅（VAT）魏烫，并增加酒精肝箱，香煙的稅負水平，也許還會包括含糖飲料读处。

Carlos Dominguez, the finance minister, says these changes should raise revenue, despite lowering headline rates. The lower personal rate will, he hopes, deter tax evasion by reducing the incentive to cheat. The lower corporate rate is intended to attract more foreign investment.

財政部長卡洛斯·多明格斯(Carlos Dominguez)說唱矛，盡管降低了最高稅率井辜，這些變化應該最終會帶來更多歲入粥脚。他希望更低的個人稅率可以減少欺詐的動機包个，阻止逃稅行為。較低的公司稅率旨在吸引更多的外國投資树灶。

Tax and spend

稅收和開支

Increased revenues are essential to Mr Duterte’s ambitious infrastructure plans. For years the country has underinvested in infrastructure—in the World Economic Forum’s most recent Global Competitiveness Index, the Philippines ranked 95th in the sector, well below its South-East Asian peers. Mr Duterte’s administration wants to spend 5-7% of GDP on infrastructure, roughly what his predecessor, Benigno Aquino, managed in his last year, and well above the average rate between 1980 and 2009 of around 2%. Manila has some of the world’s worst traffic—two-hour commutes in each direction are not unusual. As a candidate, Mr Duterte promised to do some thing about it, which helped win him support from Manila’s middle class.

增加歲入對杜特爾特雄心勃勃的基礎設施計劃至關重要天通。多年來熄驼，該國對基礎設施投資不足 - 在世界經(jīng)濟論壇最新的全球競爭力指數(shù)中，菲律賓排名第95位诺祸，遠低于其東南亞國家祭芦。 杜特爾特政府希望將GDP的5-7％投資于基礎設施，大約和他的前任貝尼尼奧·阿基諾在任最后一年持平奥秆。這將遠高于1980年至2009年2％的平均水平咸灿。 馬尼拉有著世界上最糟糕的交通 - 每個方向兩個小時的通勤并不罕見避矢。 作為候選人囊榜，杜特爾特承諾做一些事情改變現(xiàn)狀，這助他贏得了馬尼拉中產(chǎn)階級的支持砂沛。

Priorities, according to Mr Dominguez, include better airports and railway lines around the country, notably in Mr Duterte’s underdeveloped home island of Mindanao, and between Manila, Subic Bay and Clark—raising the possibility of a new international airport at Clark to relieve congestion at the abysmal one that serves Manila. Numerous projects approved by the previous administration are scheduled for completion during this one, giving Mr Duterte plenty of opportunities to grin, cut ribbons and claim credit.

根據(jù)多明格斯先生的說法曙求，優(yōu)先事項包括在全國各地建造更好的機場和鐵路映企，特別是在杜特爾特不發(fā)達的家鄉(xiāng)棉蘭老島堰氓，以及馬尼拉苹享，蘇比克灣和克拉克之間的交通。這將提高在克拉克建造新的國際機場的可能性囤攀，以緩解馬尼拉空港糟糕的擁擠狀況宫纬。上屆政府批準的許多項目預期在此屆任期內(nèi)完成。這將給杜特爾特許多拋頭露臉宣蔚，剪彩和獲取信用的機會认境。

Other items on the “ten-point socioeconomic agenda” he released shortly before taking office include relaxing restrictions on foreign ownership of companies, overhauling land-tenure laws, improving the country’s health and education systems, promoting rural development and broadening access to contraception.

他上任之前公布的“十點社會經(jīng)濟議程”的其他項目包括放寬對公司外資所有權的限制叉信，徹底改革土地所有權法律，改善國家的衛(wèi)生和教育系統(tǒng)硅急，促進農(nóng)村發(fā)展和擴大受惠避孕的機會佳遂。

Mr Duterte is also well positioned to put an end to two of his country’s longest insurgencies. Mr Aquino presented Congress with a bill granting autonomy to Muslims in Mindanao; Mr Duterte, who got on well with Muslims as mayor of the island’s biggest city, says he supports it. In February he cancelled peace talks with the communist New People’s Army, but he has close ties (too close, whisper some) with leftists, and the two sides may soon find their way back to the negotiating table.

杜特爾特先生也很有機會結束國內(nèi)兩個最長的內(nèi)亂。阿奎諾總統(tǒng)向國會提交了一份授予棉蘭老穆斯林自主權的法案; 杜特爾特總統(tǒng)支持這個提案荚板。作為這個島上最大城市的市長杜特爾特和穆斯林相處和睦吩屹。 二月他取消了與共產(chǎn)黨新人民軍的和平談判，但他與左派有密切的關系（關系太鐵免绿，小聲一點）擦盾，雙方很快就會回到談判桌上淌哟。

Making good on any of these initiatives requires attention and discipline from the top, however, and Mr Duterte remains almost wholly focused on drugs. Many hoped that would change: in late January Mr Duterte suspended his drug war after rogue police officers killed a South Korean businessman. But this week the national police chief said that drugs are creeping back onto the streets, and the president suggested that the war would resume.

但是绞绒，從任何這些計劃中獲益需要上層的關注和訓導榕暇，而杜特爾特總統(tǒng)仍然幾乎完全專注于打擊毒品。許多人希望改變：流氓警官殺害一個韓國商人后狰晚，一月下旬杜特爾特總統(tǒng)暫停了禁毒戰(zhàn)爭缴啡。但這個星期，國家警察局長說秒咐，毒品正卷土重來碘裕，總統(tǒng)建議恢復行動。

Mr Duterte is now pushing a bill to reduce the age of criminal responsibility from 15 to nine, and also wants to reinstate capital punishment (formally) for drug trafficking. These proposals are meeting resistance in Congress, which is also uncertain about autonomy for Muslim areas and lukewarm about tax reform. This week Leila de Lima, a senator and a long-standing critic of Mr Duterte’s, was arrested on charges that she ran a drug-trafficking ring while serving as Mr Aquino’s justice secretary. Ms de Lima strongly denies the charges, calling herself a “political prisoner”.

杜特爾特總統(tǒng)正在推動一項法案雷滋，將刑事責任年齡從15歲降至9歲文兢，并且還要對販毒者的恢復死刑晤斩。 這些建議在國會遇到阻力澳泵；議會是否支持穆斯林地區(qū)自治還不確定兼呵；對于稅收改革也缺乏熱情。 本周，參議員Leila de Lima（她長期批評杜特爾特家族）被捕兔仰。因為她被指控在擔任阿奎諾總統(tǒng)的司法秘書期間經(jīng)營販毒集團。 Lima女士強烈否認這些指控忍法，并稱自己是“政治犯”。

The president’s erratic character, obsession with drugs and indifference to the rule of law have consumed his first eight months in office. But his term is six years: there is still plenty of time to focus on more worthwhile plans. The millions of Filipinos who elected him to improve their lives will expect no less, even if they, too, are now distracted by the war on drugs.

總統(tǒng)古怪的性格饿序，對打擊毒品的癡迷和對法治的漠不關心，已用了他任期的前八個月乱凿。 但他將執(zhí)政六年咽弦，還有很多時間專注于更有價值的計劃上。 數(shù)百萬菲律賓人選擇他是為了改善生活段审。雖然現(xiàn)在他們也因為打擊毒品運動而分心闹蒜，但他們的預期一點也不會降低。