the box Digitisation will not just transform how goods are moved around the world, but also how the world shops 數(shù)字化不僅會(huì)變革全球商品的流通手段腕柜，還會(huì)改變世界購(gòu)物的方式THE Munich Maersk, which entered service in June 2017, is a testament to the technological marriage of information and transportation.于2017年6月開(kāi)始服役的“慕尼黑馬士基”號(hào)（Munich M?rsk）集裝箱船是信息與運(yùn)輸實(shí)現(xiàn)技術(shù)聯(lián)姻的見(jiàn)證 Its bridge looks like a very spacious cockpit. Packed with computer screens, it is all glass, no brass—with a wheel that looks more like a pilot’s control column. 她的艦橋看起來(lái)像一個(gè)非常寬敞的飛機(jī)駕駛艙彩郊，里面擺滿(mǎn)了電腦屏幕毒坛，全部由玻璃制成有勾，沒(méi)有黃銅疹启，而方向盤(pán)看起來(lái)更像是飛行員的操縱桿Sailing her 214,000 tonnes from port to port takes a crew of just 28. Loading and unloading the 20,000 containers she carries only needs the supervision of one crew member. 從一座港口到另一座港口，21.4萬(wàn)噸體量的她只需28名船員蔼卡。裝卸她運(yùn)載的2萬(wàn)個(gè)集裝箱只需要一名船員的監(jiān)督The Munich Maersk, though, is a high-end exception—one of the best ships in the up-to-the-minute fleet of the biggest shipping company in the world. 不過(guò)喊崖，“慕尼黑馬士基”號(hào)是一個(gè)高端的例外——它是世界上最大的航運(yùn)公司擁有的最先進(jìn)船隊(duì)中最好的船之一。It shows what can be done. But at the moment the industry’s big issue is what is being left undone. 它展示了我們能夠達(dá)到什么樣的水準(zhǔn)雇逞。但這個(gè)行業(yè)目前的大問(wèn)題是還有哪些事情沒(méi)有做Between 1985 and 2007 trade volumes rose at around twice the rate of global GDP. 從1985年到2007年荤懂，貿(mào)易額增速約為全球GDP增速的兩倍In the 1990s the world’s largest container ships only had space for 5,000 or so containers; 90年代，世界上最大的集裝箱船只能容納約5,000個(gè)集裝箱now it boasts giants like the Munich Maersk. 現(xiàn)在塘砸，行業(yè)里已經(jīng)擁有了像“慕尼黑馬士基”號(hào)這樣的巨人The global logistics industry had revenues of $4.3trn (€3.3trn) in 2014, according BCG, a consultancy.根據(jù)咨詢(xún)公司BCG的數(shù)據(jù)节仿，2014年全球物流行業(yè)的營(yíng)收達(dá)4.3萬(wàn)億美元（3.3萬(wàn)億歐元） But though the flows and the pipes have got bigger, the principles of the industry’s plumbing have changed little since they took their modern form in the 1950s and 1960s. 但是，盡管流量和“管道”都已變得更大掉蔬，自該行業(yè)在上世紀(jì)五六十年代達(dá)到現(xiàn)代形式以來(lái)廊宪，這套“管路系統(tǒng)”的原理卻沒(méi)有多大變化Use containers of standard sizes that can be loaded onto trains, lorries or ships as needed; use scale to cut costs; co-ordinate the whole thing with a physical paper trail. 使用能夠按需要裝上火車(chē)、卡車(chē)或輪船的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)尺寸集裝箱女轿；利用規(guī)模削減成本箭启；用一堆紙質(zhì)文件來(lái)協(xié)調(diào)整個(gè)流程When in doubt, buy something bigger. The economic slowdown following the global financial crisis hit this way of doing things hard. 如果吃不準(zhǔn)，買(mǎi)艘更大的船就對(duì)了蛉迹。 全球金融危機(jī)之后經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩傅寡，讓這種操作方式遭受巨大打擊Although giants like Maersk continued to buy enormous ships, smaller lines with worse balance-sheets could not. 雖然像馬士基這樣的巨頭繼續(xù)購(gòu)買(mǎi)龐大的船只，但資產(chǎn)負(fù)債狀況較差的小型船隊(duì)卻難以為繼Airbus, which had hoped to sell a freighter version of its A380 superjumbo, abandoned its plans. 本想銷(xiāo)售A380巨型貨機(jī)的空客公司放棄了這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃Freight rates plunged as demand for shipping did not keep up with supply. Between 2012 and 2016, the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index, a measure of prices, fell by 73%. 航運(yùn)需求增長(zhǎng)趕不上供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致運(yùn)費(fèi)暴跌北救。2012年至2016年間荐操，衡量?jī)r(jià)格的上海集裝箱運(yùn)價(jià)指數(shù)下跌了73%，At the same time, the growth of e-commerce saw more aware, more dem

anding corporate customers insist on ever better handling of what is called logistics’“l(fā)ast mile”—moving purchases from their distribution warehouses to the people who bought them. 與此同時(shí)珍策，電子商務(wù)的發(fā)展讓更多更具革新意識(shí)淀零、要求更高的企業(yè)客戶(hù)開(kāi)始強(qiáng)調(diào)要更好地處理所謂的物流“最后一公里”——把采購(gòu)的產(chǎn)品從分銷(xiāo)倉(cāng)庫(kù)送到買(mǎi)家手中Though today’s talk is all of delivery drones and driverless vans, the key to this transformation has been not new equipment but new ways of handling data: knowing where hundreds of millions of things are and where they are going, and being able to act on that data as things change.盡管如今的熱門(mén)話(huà)題都是關(guān)于無(wú)人機(jī)和無(wú)人車(chē)送貨，但這種轉(zhuǎn)變的關(guān)鍵不是新設(shè)備膛壹，而是處理數(shù)據(jù)的新方法：知道上億件物品都在什么地方驾中，要往哪里去，還要能夠在情況有變時(shí)根據(jù)這些數(shù)據(jù)做出調(diào)整 Now companies that have been crucial to these changes at one end of the distribution chain—Alibaba and JD, which are Chinese, and Amazon, which is American—are eyeing the rest of it. 現(xiàn)在模聋，一些深刻影響了分銷(xiāo)鏈其中一端變化的公司——中國(guó)的阿里巴巴和京東肩民，以及美國(guó)的亞馬遜————開(kāi)始把目光投向這個(gè)鏈條的其余部分The business of moving goods internationally from factory to factory and warehouse to warehouse requires many more capabilities than shifting items from local warehouses to doorsteps. 將貨物跨國(guó)從一家工廠運(yùn)到另一家工廠，從一個(gè)倉(cāng)庫(kù)運(yùn)到另一個(gè)倉(cāng)庫(kù)链方，這種業(yè)務(wù)所要求的能力要比把貨物從本地倉(cāng)庫(kù)送到家門(mén)口高得多But it also accounts for 90% of the logistics’ industry’s global revenue. 但它占到了物流行業(yè)全球收入的90%How far the intruders can displace the incumbents and what new business models come out of the struggle will help determine how much world trade can grow and who the winners and losers from that growth will be.這些入侵者能夠取代在位者多少持痰，以及這場(chǎng)斗爭(zhēng)中會(huì)出現(xiàn)什么樣的新商業(yè)模式，將在一定程度上決定世界貿(mào)易能有多大增長(zhǎng)祟蚀，以及增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)的贏家和輸家分別是誰(shuí) Adrift in a sea of paper Firms looking to move components through their supply chain or finished goods to retailers have two main options. 在紙張的海洋中漂流 如果有公司要在供應(yīng)鏈中運(yùn)送零部件工窍，或是把成品送到零售商處割卖，它們的選擇主要有兩類(lèi)Express-delivery services such as DHL Express (part of Deutsche Post DHL), FedEx and UPS are fast and flexible—all the more so now they have embraced new data-management systems. DHL快遞（德國(guó)郵政DHL的子公司）、聯(lián)邦快遞和UPS等快遞服務(wù)快速而靈活——如今它們采用了新的數(shù)據(jù)管理系統(tǒng)后就更是如此But they are also expensive—especially for long-distance air freight. Shipping a 70kg parcel from Shanghai to London with DHL Express takes three times longer, and costs four times as much, as buying a human of the same weight an airline ticket. 但它們也很貴患雏，尤其是長(zhǎng)途空運(yùn)鹏溯。用DHL快遞把一個(gè)70公斤的包裹從上海送到倫敦，所花的時(shí)間相比給同樣重量的人買(mǎi)一張飛機(jī)票要多三倍淹仑，價(jià)格則要翻兩番The passenger gets a baggage allowance and free drinks, too. 話(huà)說(shuō)旅客還可以免費(fèi)攜帶一定重量的行李和享受免費(fèi)飲料呢So most goods wend their way across the world using the second option—containerised freight. 所以丙挽，大多數(shù)商品都是利用第二種選擇——集裝箱貨運(yùn)——來(lái)緩緩橫穿世界的The non-domestic cargo business has revenues of $2.6trn a year, according to BCG. And a lot of those revenues go to middlemen. 根據(jù)BCG的數(shù)據(jù)，非國(guó)內(nèi)貨運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)的營(yíng)業(yè)額為每年2. 6萬(wàn)億美元匀借。這些收入中很多都給了中間商Dealing with customs clearances, insurance, transfers between sea and road and rail and all the other physical, procedural and bureaucratic hold-ups that freight is heir to requires the services of a freight forwarder. 要處理海關(guān)清關(guān)颜阐、保險(xiǎn)、海上與公路和鐵路之間的轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)吓肋，以及貨運(yùn)中會(huì)遇到的所有其他實(shí)體的凳怨、程序的和官僚的阻礙，就需要貨運(yùn)代理人的服務(wù)These companies account for over a fifth of the logistics industry’s revenues (see chart 1); in some cases they receive as much as 45% of the total delivery cost. 這些公司的收入占整個(gè)物流業(yè)的五分之一以上（見(jiàn)圖1）是鬼，在某些情況下它們收取的費(fèi)用占到了總運(yùn)費(fèi)的45%In 2016 Deutsche Post DHL’s in-house freight-forwarder made over $26bn in revenues.2016年猿棉，德國(guó)郵政DHL的內(nèi)部貨運(yùn)代理公司收入超過(guò)260億美元 Its smaller rivals Kuehne + Nagel, of Switzerland, and DB Schenker, of Germany, made $20bn and $17bn respectively. 在比它規(guī)模小一些的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手中，瑞士德迅集團(tuán)（Kuehne + Nagel）和德國(guó)的德鐵信可鐵路（DB Schenker）分別賺取了200億美元和170億美元For the most part, freight-forwarding companies charge a percentage of the total cost of the shipment; this gives them little incentive to drive costs down. 大多數(shù)情況下屑咳，貨運(yùn)代理公司會(huì)按照運(yùn)貨總成本的百分比收費(fèi)萨赁，這導(dǎo)致它們沒(méi)有什么動(dòng)力來(lái)降低成本In a free and transparent market where all the shipping options were easily discoverable, this problem would be solved through competition. 如果有一個(gè)自由而透明的市場(chǎng)，讓人們能夠輕松發(fā)現(xiàn)所有的運(yùn)輸選擇兆龙，那么這個(gè)問(wèn)題就可以通過(guò)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)來(lái)解決But the complicated world of shipping contracts is a long way from that ideal, and the incumbents have clear reasons for keeping it so. 但這個(gè)航運(yùn)合同滿(mǎn)天飛的復(fù)雜世界距離這樣的理想還很遙遠(yuǎn)杖爽，而且既有企業(yè)有顯而易見(jiàn)的理由來(lái)維持現(xiàn)狀Zvi Schreiber, founder of Freightos, a website headquartered in Hong Kong that is introducing some transparency by allowing users to compare and book different options, says many firms may take two or three days to quote a price for taking an air-freight? or a shipping container from A to B. 總部位于香港的Freightos網(wǎng)站的創(chuàng)始人茨維·施萊伯（Zvi Schreiber）表示，要提供把空運(yùn)貨盤(pán)或集裝箱從甲地運(yùn)到乙地的報(bào)價(jià)紫皇，許多公司可能要花費(fèi)兩三天的時(shí)間And forwarders are often unable or unwilling to say whether the goods will get from China to Europe in one month or two. 而且貨運(yùn)代理通常不能或不愿意擔(dān)保說(shuō)貨物是否能在一兩個(gè)月內(nèi)從中國(guó)運(yùn)到歐洲The industry’s backwardness can be seen in its thrall to paperwork. 這個(gè)行業(yè)的落后從其受制于紙面文書(shū)就可見(jiàn)一斑Systems based on e-tickets that say who is entitled to go where, and how, have been mandatory in air-passenger transport for ten years. 航空客運(yùn)強(qiáng)制使用電子票已經(jīng)有十年了慰安，票上說(shuō)明了誰(shuí)有資格以什么方式去哪里But half of air cargo still travels with paper “bills of lading” rather than e-tickets. 但是航空貨運(yùn)中仍然有一半使用紙張?zhí)嶝泦味皇请娮悠薄n the world of containerised shipping things are even worse: freight forwarders deal with shipping firms, airlines and hauliers mainly by fax. 在集裝箱運(yùn)輸部門(mén)聪铺，情況還要更糟：貨運(yùn)代理商主要是通過(guò)傳真來(lái)和航運(yùn)公司化焕、航空公司以及陸路運(yùn)輸公司打交道The cargo on each voyage of the Munich Maersk generates a library of documents—many of which then need to be sent to the ship’s

destination by some other means. 慕尼黑馬士基”號(hào)每次航行運(yùn)載的貨物都會(huì)生成一個(gè)文件庫(kù)，其中許多文件需要通過(guò)其他方式發(fā)送到目的地That secondary shipping is not foolproof, either: vessels and aircraft are often delayed in port because the paperwork has not caught up with the goods that they carry.這項(xiàng)額外的運(yùn)送同樣并非萬(wàn)無(wú)一失——船舶和飛機(jī)經(jīng)常在港口延誤铃剔，因?yàn)槠鋽y帶貨物的文書(shū)還沒(méi)有送到 The cost of all this is enormous. Removing administrative blockages and outdated practices would, by some accounts, do more to boost international trade than eliminating tariffs.所有這些問(wèn)題的成本是巨大的撒桨。根據(jù)一些人的估算，去除行政障礙和過(guò)時(shí)做法對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易的促進(jìn)作用比取消關(guān)稅還要大 The UN reckons that putting all the Asia-Pacific region’s trade-related paperwork online could slash the time it takes to export goods by up to 44%, cut the cost of doing so by up to 31%, and boost exports by as much as $257bn a year. 聯(lián)合國(guó)認(rèn)為键兜，如果能將亞太地區(qū)所有與貿(mào)易有關(guān)的文書(shū)工作放到網(wǎng)上凤类，出口商品所花費(fèi)的時(shí)間可以縮短多達(dá)44%，成本可降低31%普气，同時(shí)推動(dòng)出口每年增長(zhǎng)2570億美元The burden is felt throughout business. Two-thirds of the American importers who responded to a recent survey undertaken by Freightos said that over a quarter of their deliveries from abroad arrive late.這種負(fù)累整個(gè)行業(yè)都感受得到谜疤。在Freightos最近的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查中，回答問(wèn)卷的美國(guó)進(jìn)口商有三分之二表示，來(lái)自國(guó)外的產(chǎn)品有超過(guò)四分之一晚到 Some 42% said they spend more than two hours on paperwork to arrange a shipment. And 83% said they struggle to track items as they move across the world. 約42%的人表示安排一項(xiàng)發(fā)貨需要在文書(shū)上花費(fèi)兩個(gè)多小時(shí)夷磕。83%的受訪(fǎng)者表示他們很難追蹤世界各地的在途貨物That leaves many frustrated. “Amazon Prime can deliver to your house from its warehouse at a set time,” Mr Schreiber says. “Why can’t you do the same with air and sea freight?”這讓許多人倍感挫敗履肃。施萊伯說(shuō)：“亞馬遜Prime可以在約定的時(shí)間里從倉(cāng)庫(kù)發(fā)貨到家，為什么空運(yùn)和海運(yùn)就做不到呢坐桩？”? One answer is regulation; there are a lot of institutional obstacles to reform. For instance, in 2008 a UN convention put electronic documents in international shipping on a firm legal footing. 一個(gè)答案是監(jiān)管：改革面臨很多體制性障礙尺棋。例如，2008年撕攒，聯(lián)合國(guó)大會(huì)為國(guó)際航運(yùn)的電子文件提供了堅(jiān)實(shí)的法律基礎(chǔ)But for these “Rotterdam rules” to come into force, the agreement must be ratified by 20 countries. 但是陡鹃，要使這些“鹿特丹規(guī)則”生效烘浦，該協(xié)議必須得到20個(gè)國(guó)家的批準(zhǔn)Owing to a lack of interest in the subject among politicians the tally so far is just four: Cameroon, Congo-Brazzaville, Spain and Togo. 由于政客們對(duì)這個(gè)問(wèn)題缺乏興趣抖坪，迄今為止只有四個(gè)國(guó)家簽署：喀麥隆、剛果布拉柴維爾闷叉、西班牙和多哥Poor communications used to be partly to blame, too, but that excuse has fallen overboard.通訊不佳一度也是原因擦俐，但如今這個(gè)借口已經(jīng)不成立了 Inmarsat, a company originally set up by the International Maritime Organisation to provide satellite services for ships at sea, today offers data rates for ships that are over 100 times faster than they were 20 years ago. 國(guó)際海事衛(wèi)星組織公司（Inmarsat）最初由國(guó)際海事組織設(shè)立，為海上船舶提供衛(wèi)星服務(wù)它在今天提供的數(shù)據(jù)速率已經(jīng)比20年前快了100倍以上握侧。Various companies rushing to provide new mobile-broadband services will improve things further. 各種急于提供新型移動(dòng)寬帶服務(wù)的公司將會(huì)進(jìn)一步改進(jìn)現(xiàn)狀Not just ships and planes, but the individual packages and containers within them, can increasingly be tracked in real time.不僅僅船和飛機(jī)越來(lái)越容易被實(shí)時(shí)跟蹤蚯瞧，甚至它們內(nèi)部的單個(gè)包裹和集裝箱也一樣 The Cincinnati kids Such data can help integrate the legs of a journey, for example by making sure that lorries do not wait for a ship that is behind schedule, or that they arrive early for one that’s ahead.辛辛那提小子 這些數(shù)據(jù)可以幫助把旅程中的各個(gè)航段整合起來(lái)，以確保貨車(chē)無(wú)需苦等晚到的船品擎，或者提前迎接那些早到的 They open the possibility of redirecting items along quicker or cheaper routes as they become available—if the shipper can find out about them.這就創(chuàng)造出一種可能性埋合，即在更快或更便宜的路線(xiàn)出現(xiàn)時(shí)改變貨物的運(yùn)輸路徑——前提是發(fā)貨人能夠找出這些新路線(xiàn) The hard-to-get information which lets people find spare shipping capacity will power the real revolution, according to Martin Stopford of Clarksons, a shipbroker. 這種難以獲得的信息可以讓人們找到閑置的運(yùn)力，從而推動(dòng)真正的革命萄传，船舶經(jīng)紀(jì)公司Clarksons的馬丁·斯特福德（Martin Stopford）說(shuō)Matching spare capacity to cargo in need of transport on the fly would allow the “Uberisation” of the freight business. 將閑置運(yùn)力與需要運(yùn)輸?shù)呢浳飳?shí)時(shí)匹配起來(lái)甚颂，會(huì)帶來(lái)貨運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)的“優(yōu)步化”There are already signs of this in haulage. America’s lorries travel empty more than a quarter of the time: the wasted capacity is equivalent to 200,000 lorries travelling 1,000km every day. 在陸路運(yùn)輸中已經(jīng)有了這種跡象。美國(guó)的大貨車(chē)有四分之一以上的時(shí)間都在空駛：浪費(fèi)的運(yùn)力相當(dāng)于每天20萬(wàn)輛大貨車(chē)行駛1,000公里This is because it is hard for forwarders to find return cargoes using phone or fax. 這是因?yàn)檗D(zhuǎn)運(yùn)商很難通過(guò)電話(huà)或傳真找到返程貨車(chē)Now apps have appeared to match loads with drivers, just as the Uber app pairs passengers and drivers.現(xiàn)在秀菱，已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了將貨物與司機(jī)匹配起來(lái)的應(yīng)用振诬，就像優(yōu)步應(yīng)用匹配乘客和司機(jī)那樣 Indeed Uber Freight is one of the contenders.實(shí)際上，優(yōu)步貨運(yùn)（Uber Freight）也是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者之一 Cargomatic, a startup based in Los Angeles, and Trucker Path, a rival in Texas that was bought by a Chinese firm in December, are competing with it for the freight business, while Amazon is testing “Amazon Flex” as a way of getting gig-economy drivers to make deliveries.總部位于洛杉磯的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司Cargomatic和得克薩斯州的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手Trucker Path（去年12月被一家中國(guó)公司收購(gòu)）正在與之爭(zhēng)奪貨運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)衍菱，而亞馬遜正在測(cè)試“亞馬遜Flex”來(lái)讓打零工的司機(jī)送貨 The vision of many in the industry is that such services will eventually cover all sorts of different transport modalities all over the world.行業(yè)內(nèi)許多人的愿景是赶么，這類(lèi)服務(wù)最終將覆蓋全世界所有不同的交通方式 In the past, realising the benefits of an integrated global network of ships, planes and lorries required owning such a network, a task too big for even the largest logistics firms.過(guò)去，要實(shí)現(xiàn)這樣一個(gè)由船舶脊串、飛機(jī)和貨車(chē)構(gòu)成的綜合全球網(wǎng)絡(luò)的好處辫呻，就需要擁有這整個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，而這即使是對(duì)最大的物流公司來(lái)說(shuō)也太過(guò)艱巨 Maersk, one of the world’s largest container-terminal firms as well as its largest containership operator, ran its sea- and road-logistics businesses almost entirely separately until 2016. 馬士基是世界上最大的集裝箱碼頭公司之一琼锋，也是最大的集裝箱船運(yùn)營(yíng)商印屁，直到2016年，它的海運(yùn)和陸路物流業(yè)務(wù)仍幾乎完全分開(kāi)運(yùn)營(yíng)Most companies chose to specialise and hand co-ordination over to the forwarders. 大多數(shù)公司選擇專(zhuān)攻一項(xiàng)斩例，而將協(xié)調(diào)的工作交給貨運(yùn)代理Smartphones and sensors mean that, with the right platform or platforms, a freight forwarder, or a tech firm that had taken on such a role, could co-ordinate things much better than is possible today—and without any faxes. One of those seeking such changes is Amazon. 智能手機(jī)和傳感器的出現(xiàn)意味著一旦有了一個(gè)或多個(gè)恰當(dāng)運(yùn)作的平臺(tái)雄人，貨運(yùn)代理公司或承擔(dān)這一角色的技術(shù)公司的協(xié)調(diào)能力將比現(xiàn)在好得多，也再不需要用到傳真了尋求這種變化的公司之一是亞馬遜In 2017 it spent $25bn on logistics. It thinks it could get better value for money by expanding what it does itself from last-mile to all-the-miles. 2017年，它在物流上花費(fèi)了250億美元础钠。它認(rèn)為恰力，把自己所做的“最后一英里”拓展到“所有英里”，將可以獲得更好的投資回報(bào)It has created its own logistics division and acts as its own freight forwarder.它創(chuàng)建了自己的物流部門(mén)旗吁，充當(dāng)自己的貨運(yùn)代理 Its cargo airline, Amazon Air, is still a tiddler compared with FedEx, with just 33 jets in its fleet.它的貨運(yùn)航空公司“亞馬遜航空”（Amazon Air）與聯(lián)邦快遞相比還只是個(gè)業(yè)余玩家踩萎，其機(jī)隊(duì)僅有33架飛機(jī) But the cargo hub in Cincinnati on which the company is spending $1.5bn will have room for 100 jets. It has also been granted a licence to act as a maritime freight forwarder. 但公司投資15億美元興建的辛辛那提的貨運(yùn)樞紐將可容納100架飛機(jī)。它還拿到了海運(yùn)貨運(yùn)代理的許可Freight forwarders and transport giants alike claim that they do not see Amazon’s move into logistics as a threat. 貨運(yùn)代理和運(yùn)輸巨頭們都聲稱(chēng)自己并沒(méi)有把亞馬遜進(jìn)軍物流業(yè)看作威脅The explosion of e-commerce (see chart 2) allows DHL, FedEx and UPS to tell shareholders happy stories about their future. 電子商務(wù)的爆炸式增長(zhǎng)（見(jiàn)圖2）使DHL很钓、聯(lián)邦快遞和UPS都能夠給股東講述關(guān)于自己未來(lái)發(fā)展的動(dòng)人故事The demand for parcel delivery is growing by more than 7% a year, sufficient both to maintain jobs and survive competition, according to Frank Appel, the boss of Deutsche Post DHL. 根據(jù)德國(guó)郵政DHL的老板弗蘭克·阿佩爾（Frank Appel）的說(shuō)法香府，包裹遞送的需求年增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)7%，足以保住業(yè)內(nèi)職位并讓大家都在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中存活下來(lái)Automation may mean it will soon take a third fewer people to deliver a given volume of goods, he says—but the increase in demand will still make the industry a net job creator. 他表示码倦，自動(dòng)化可能意味著遞送給定數(shù)量物品所需的人數(shù)將減少三分之一企孩，但需求的增長(zhǎng)仍將使該行業(yè)的工作崗位實(shí)現(xiàn)凈增長(zhǎng)And it will also mean that there will be room enough for both DHL and Amazon to grow.? 而且這也意味著DHL和亞馬遜都會(huì)有足夠的發(fā)展空間。 如此這般樂(lè)觀的另一個(gè)原因是袁稽，到目前為止亞馬遜主要使用其網(wǎng)絡(luò)來(lái)服務(wù)自己的客戶(hù)Another reason for such optimism is that, so far, Amazon has mainly used its network to serve its own customers. But that will change. The companies with big e-commerce networks are keen to take on other firms’ logistics, too.但這一點(diǎn)是會(huì)變的勿璃。擁有大型電子商務(wù)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的公司也熱衷于承接其他公司的物流環(huán)節(jié) The idea is not to own all the ships and rolling stock—though they may own some particularly profitable bits of the system—but to control the platforms that make services available, and to bring the rest of the industry on board by simply being too big to refuse. 其構(gòu)想并不是要擁有所有的船舶和機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)——雖然它們可能擁有系統(tǒng)中一些利潤(rùn)尤其豐厚的部分——而是要控制提供服務(wù)的平臺(tái)，然后簡(jiǎn)單地通過(guò)變成“大到無(wú)法拒絕”而把整個(gè)行業(yè)拉進(jìn)來(lái)Perhaps the furthest down the road in this respect is Alibaba. Alibaba is a digital platform where buyers and sellers meet, rather than a retailer that holds inventory itself. 也許在這方面走得最遠(yuǎn)的是阿里巴巴推汽。阿里巴巴是把買(mǎi)家和賣(mài)家?guī)У揭黄鸬臄?shù)字平臺(tái)补疑，而不是擁有庫(kù)存的零售商It has thus always been focused on end-to-end logistics in a way that Amazon, which runs most of its business through warehouses to which goods are delivered by normal channels, is not. 因此，它始終專(zhuān)注于端到端的物流歹撒，這一點(diǎn)和亞馬遜大為不同莲组，因?yàn)楹笳叩拇蟛糠謽I(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)作時(shí)都是利用普通渠道把貨物送到倉(cāng)庫(kù)Alibaba says that last year it was the middleman in $550bn of transactions within China, serving over 500m customers. 阿里巴巴說(shuō)，去年它作為中介經(jīng)手了中國(guó)境內(nèi)5,500億美元的交易暖夭，為超過(guò)5億客戶(hù)提供服務(wù)Through its logistics platform, Cainiao, it delivers 70% of all e-commerce parcels in China. Now Alibaba has its eyes set on international e-commerce. 通過(guò)其菜鳥(niǎo)物流平臺(tái)锹杈，它完成了中國(guó)70%的電子商務(wù)包裹的遞送。 如今阿里巴巴開(kāi)始重視國(guó)際電子商務(wù)A study produced by Alibaba’s research arm and Accenture, a consultancy, in 2016 predicted that cross-border e-commerce shipments worldwide could rise from $400bn in that year to nearly $1trn by 2020. 其研究部門(mén)和咨詢(xún)公司埃森哲在2016年聯(lián)合進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)研究預(yù)測(cè)鳞尔，全球跨境電商出貨量可能會(huì)從當(dāng)年的4,000億美元增加到2020年的近1萬(wàn)億美元Until recently, these international shipments tended to be restricted to fairly high-value goods.不久前嬉橙，這些國(guó)際貨運(yùn)往往還只限于相當(dāng)高價(jià)值的商品 But Alibaba now ships cheap, bulky things like nappies and milk powder from manufacturers in America to consumers in China. 但阿里巴巴現(xiàn)在正把像尿布和奶粉這樣廉價(jià)而笨重的東西從美國(guó)制造商那里送到中國(guó)消費(fèi)者的手中Last September the company said it was going to invest $15bn in boosting Cainiao’s cross-border capabilities. These developments should increase the total volume of goods shipped around the world yet further.去年9月，該公司表示將投資150億美元用于提升菜鳥(niǎo)物流的跨境運(yùn)送能力寥假。 這些發(fā)展應(yīng)該還會(huì)進(jìn)一步提升全球貨運(yùn)總量 But Rob Wolleswinkel of BCG counsels against seeing this as a rising tide for all boats. 但BCG的羅布·沃爾斯溫克爾（Rob Wolleswinkel）反對(duì)將這看作是雞犬升天的機(jī)會(huì)Amazon’s logistics division, he suspects, will seek to “cherry pick” profitable undertakings such as managing the system, leaving only low-margin activities, such as basic transport services, to the likes of Maersk and DHL.他疑心亞馬遜的物流部門(mén)會(huì)“精挑細(xì)選”最有利可圖的業(yè)務(wù)市框，比如管理整個(gè)系統(tǒng)，而僅把基礎(chǔ)運(yùn)輸服務(wù)等低利潤(rùn)業(yè)務(wù)留給馬士基和DHL等公司 The newcomers, he notes, have two things on their side that previous would-be disrupters did not. One is that the company that owns the data owns the consumer. 他指出糕韧，亞馬遜這樣的行業(yè)新來(lái)者有兩個(gè)特點(diǎn)是先前的挑戰(zhàn)者所沒(méi)有的枫振。一是擁有數(shù)據(jù)的公司也擁有消費(fèi)者Amazon knows a great deal about the people who use its platform, which is a lot of people; logistics firms know next to nothing about anyone. Second is the size of the tech giants. 亞馬遜對(duì)使用其平臺(tái)的龐大用戶(hù)所知甚多，而物流公司幾乎不了解任何人萤彩。其次是科技巨頭的規(guī)模DHL,

FedEx and UPS have been big enough to bat away competition from startups. The e-commerce titans are another matter. 雖然此前DHL粪滤、聯(lián)邦快遞和UPS已經(jīng)大到可以打敗創(chuàng)業(yè)公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，但電子商務(wù)巨頭是另一回事Some have woken up to the threat. Soren Skou, chief executive of Maersk, argues that it was a mistake for his firm to spend the past decade focusing so much on no-frills container freight between China and Europe. 有些人已經(jīng)意識(shí)到了這種威脅雀扶。馬士基的首席執(zhí)行官索倫·斯庫(kù)（Soren Skou）認(rèn)為杖小，他的公司在過(guò)去十年中太過(guò)專(zhuān)注于中國(guó)和歐洲之間的基礎(chǔ)集裝箱貨運(yùn)肆汹，實(shí)為錯(cuò)誤決策That allowed freight forwarders to scoop out the profit that Amazon and Alibaba now covet.。這讓貨運(yùn)代理商攫取了亞馬遜和阿里巴巴現(xiàn)在覬覦的那塊利潤(rùn) Maersk must become more integrated to compete against Amazon, he says: he wants to make it “the DHL of the sea,” offering worldwide door-to-door delivery. 他表示予权，馬士基必須進(jìn)一步整合各項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)才能與亞馬遜競(jìng)爭(zhēng)昂勉，他希望把自己變成“海上的DHL”，提供遍及全球的門(mén)到門(mén)送貨服務(wù)He plans to replace paper bills of lading with digital ones secured using blockchain technology. The firm is already rolling out a digital “Maersk Line Operating System” to put shipping data into a common format. 他計(jì)劃使用由區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)支持的數(shù)字提單取代紙質(zhì)提單扫腺。該公司已經(jīng)推出了數(shù)字版的“馬士基航運(yùn)操作系統(tǒng)”岗照，將航運(yùn)數(shù)據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)為通用格式This promises to be hugely influential. As an executive at a smaller rival admits: “We just watch what Maersk does and copy it.”這勢(shì)必產(chǎn)生極大的影響力。一位較小競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的高管承認(rèn)：“我們無(wú)非是看馬士基做什么笆环，有樣學(xué)樣而已攒至。” Et TEU, Brute In the past, the unreliability of container delivery has made it unsuitable for e-commerce; 集裝箱也能變靈活 過(guò)去躁劣，集裝箱送貨因其不可靠性迫吐，不適用于電子商務(wù)that has been good for other retailers, who can turn a profit importing items from China in bulk to Europe and America and selling them on. 這對(duì)其他零售商來(lái)說(shuō)是件好事，他們可以從中國(guó)大量進(jìn)口到歐美出售以賺取利潤(rùn)If Maersk, or anyone else, can make containerised shipping truly responsive and flexible it will have implications well beyond logistics. 如果馬士基或其他任何人能夠使集裝箱運(yùn)輸真正變得響應(yīng)快速而靈活习绢，那么它的影響力就遠(yuǎn)不止于物流了 It might seem fanciful to think of shipments on a behemoth like Munich Maersk being flexible in the way that vans tootling round suburbs with packages can be像“慕尼黑馬士基”號(hào)這樣的龐然大物渠抹，如果說(shuō)它運(yùn)起貨來(lái)要能和在郊區(qū)穿梭送包裹的面包車(chē)一樣靈活蝙昙，似乎有點(diǎn)異想天開(kāi). But smart data management and good data analytics might get you a long way towards the goal. 但智能數(shù)據(jù)管理和良好的數(shù)據(jù)分析可能推動(dòng)它向這個(gè)目標(biāo)邁出一大步If you really know where all the goods are and have control over where they will go, you do not necessarily need to wait for an order before you ship something. 如果你確切知道所有商品的位置闪萄，并且能夠控制它們要去的地方，那么就未必需要等到訂單出現(xiàn)才能發(fā)貨If you know roughly how many of the items in question the market is interested in, they can be shipped ahead of time, their e-ticket-like labels left deliberately vague. 如果你大概知道市場(chǎng)對(duì)商品有多少興趣奇颠，你就可以提前發(fā)貨败去，并把它們類(lèi)似于電子票的標(biāo)簽故意留白When an order is actually placed, the relevant label will be updated with a precise destination in transit. 當(dāng)實(shí)際訂單到來(lái)時(shí)，相關(guān)標(biāo)簽將在途中被更新為精確的目的地 The ship takes on part of the job of the warehouse. Alibaba and Amazon are already pursuing this approach. 船承擔(dān)了倉(cāng)庫(kù)的部分工作烈拒。阿里巴巴和亞馬遜已經(jīng)在追求這種方式To the extent that it can be made to work, such magic will eat into retail and wholesale margins—which for books and toys can be over 50% of the price.只要它能夠發(fā)揮作用圆裕，這種魔法將蠶食零售和批發(fā)的利潤(rùn)——書(shū)籍和玩具的這部分利潤(rùn)可能超過(guò)價(jià)格的50%。 This is already happening to some extent. In 2012 Amazon began to allow Chinese businesses to start selling through its marketplace programme, which fulfils third-party orders; they now outnumber American firms.這在某種程度上已經(jīng)發(fā)生了荆几。2012年吓妆，亞馬遜開(kāi)始允許中國(guó)企業(yè)入駐其電商平臺(tái)marketplace開(kāi)展銷(xiāo)售，如今它們的數(shù)量已經(jīng)超過(guò)了美國(guó)公司 And Amazon has slashed the cost of delivering small items ordered from China to America. It is now lower than the cost of shipping within the United States (though delivery is slower). 亞馬遜削減了把小商品從中國(guó)運(yùn)到美國(guó)的成本吨铸，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)低于美國(guó)境內(nèi)的運(yùn)輸成本（雖然送貨較慢）Other American retailers, online and off, are angry at what they see as a subsidy to their competitors.其他美國(guó)零售商行拢，無(wú)論線(xiàn)上線(xiàn)下，都對(duì)這種在他們看來(lái)是對(duì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的補(bǔ)貼感到憤怒 Some estimate that as many as 7.5m retail jobs will disappear in America over the next decade, in part because of the increased possibilities for e-commerce that better logistics will bring.有人估計(jì)诞吱，未來(lái)十年舟奠，美國(guó)將有多達(dá)750萬(wàn)個(gè)零售業(yè)職位消失，部分原因是物流的改善為電子商務(wù)帶來(lái)了新的可能性 Others are more optimistic. Michael Mandel of the Progressive Policy Institute, a think-tank in Washington, DC, has pointed out that in America jobs in logistics are increasing faster than retail employment is falling. 其他人則更樂(lè)觀房维。華盛頓智庫(kù)“進(jìn)步政策研究所”（Progressive Policy Institute）的邁克爾·曼德?tīng)枺∕ichael Mandel）指出沼瘫，在美國(guó)，物流業(yè)職位的增加快過(guò)零售業(yè)職位的減少Those new workers, though, are unlikely to be employed by old firms. As Mr Stopford notes, incumbents did badly last time technological change swept logistics. 然而咙俩，這些新員工不太可能是被老公司聘用的耿戚。正如斯特福德指出的那樣，技術(shù)變革上次橫掃物流業(yè)時(shí)，既有企業(yè)表現(xiàn)得很糟糕“Who today has heard of Blue Funnel Line?” he asks of the British firm which was one of the largest cargo lines in the world—before containers and Maersk came along.“今天還有誰(shuí)聽(tīng)說(shuō)過(guò)藍(lán)煙通（Blue Funnel Line）膜蛔？”他口中的這家英國(guó)公司曾經(jīng)是世界上最大的貨運(yùn)航線(xiàn)之一——在集裝箱和馬士基出現(xiàn)之前晓锻。