英文部分來自“經(jīng)濟學(xué)人”雜志蘸鲸。譯文是個人學(xué)習(xí)、欣賞語言之用膝舅，謝絕轉(zhuǎn)載或用于任何商業(yè)用途窑多。本人同意簡書平臺在接獲有關(guān)著作權(quán)人的通知后，刪除文章技潘。

But James Stettler, a capital-goods analystat Barclays Capital, notes that “no one’s really pushing the button on capex yet”. And companies which might benefit from an investment boom are not getting carried away. In a recent profits statement Caterpillar, a maker of bulldozers and excavators,said that, while tax reform and infrastructure spending would be good for its businesses, it would not expect to see large benefits until at least 2018. So far the recovery in global capital spending is in line with what you would expect from the recovery in global profits, says Joseph Lupton of JP Morgan Chase.

但巴克萊資本的資本品分析師詹姆斯·斯特特勒（James Stettler）指出千康，“沒人真的按下了資本支出的開關(guān)”。將受益于投資熱潮的那些公司也并沒有沖昏了頭腦值桩。在最新的利潤報告中豪椿，推土機和挖掘機制造商卡特彼勒表示，雖然稅收改革和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出將對其業(yè)務(wù)有利咳秉，該公司預(yù)計至少到2018年不會看到巨大的收益鸯隅。摩根大通銀行的Joseph Lupton說，到目前為止全球資本支出的恢復(fù)符合人們對全球利潤復(fù)蘇的預(yù)期霎奢。

The signs of recovery are encouraging.But can they be trusted? The last few bursts of optimism about the global economy all petered out. In 2010 the rebound from a deep rich-world recession was pulled back to earth by the sovereign-debt crisis in the euro area. As soon as Europe gingerly emerged from recession in mid-2013, hints from America’s Federal Reserve that its bond-buying programme would soon tail off prompted a stampede out of emerging markets. This “taper tantrum” blew over in a few months, but it had repercussions.The prospect of tighter monetary policy in America, however distant, hit the supply of credit in emerging markets. The squeeze was made worse in 2014 when the oil price fell from over $100 a barrel to half that in just a few months. The price of other industrial raw materials, which had settled onto a plateau after peaking in 2011, began to fall.The subsequent slump in investment was enough to drag big commodity exporters, such as Brazil and Russia, into recession.

復(fù)蘇的跡象令人歡欣鼓舞幕侠。但它們值得信賴嗎碍彭？最近爆發(fā)的幾次對全球經(jīng)濟的樂觀情緒最終都歸于沉寂悼潭。 2010年舰褪，受歐元區(qū)主權(quán)債務(wù)危機的影響疏橄，發(fā)達國家深度衰退中的反彈偃旗息鼓。2013年年中歐洲剛剛戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)兢兢地走出衰退晃酒，美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會就暗示窄绒，其債券購買計劃很快就要退出，這推動了資本從新興市場蜂擁而逃蛔翅。雖說這種“削減量化寬松恐懼”只持續(xù)了幾個月位谋，但是它造成了影響。美國緊縮貨幣政策的前景掏父，盡管遠在千里之外，還是打擊了新興市場的信貸供應(yīng)。 僅僅幾個月的時間鸟款，原油價格就從每桶100美元跌到只有一半價格，這使得2014的經(jīng)濟更加雪上加霜组哩。其他工業(yè)原材料的價格在2011年達到高峰之后原已穩(wěn)定下來处渣，隨后也開始下跌。之后的投資下滑足以拖累巴西和俄羅斯等商品出口大國陷入衰退黍衙。

Even so, by the end of 2015 the Fed was sufficiently confident about the outlook to raise its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the first such increase in a decade. More increases were expected in relatively short order. But the jitters about China, and then Brexit, meant that it was a full year before the next. It has now followed up with another increase in much shorter order.

即使如此琅翻，到2015年年底位仁，美聯(lián)儲曾對前景充滿信心聂抢，并將基準利率提高了0.25個百分點棠众，這是十年來的首次。本來預(yù)期在較短的時間內(nèi)利率還會有幾次上調(diào)空盼，但由于對中國的擔(dān)心以及之后對英國脫歐的憂慮胸墙，第二次利率上調(diào)等了一整年。下次利率上調(diào)會在很短的時間內(nèi)發(fā)生但骨。

False dawns were perhaps to be expected: recoveries from debt crises are painfully slow. Spending suffers as borrowers whittle away their debts. Banks are reluctant to write off old, souring loans and so are unable to make fresh new ones.And the world has had to shake off not one debt crisis, but three:the subprime crisis in America; the sovereign-debt crunch in Europe;then the bust in corporate borrowing in emerging markets.

這也可能只是黎明的假象：從債務(wù)危機中復(fù)蘇是痛苦而緩慢的智袭。當借款人清除債務(wù)時，支出會減少校哎。銀行不愿意注銷老的壞賬瞳步，因此不能發(fā)放新的貸款，世界已經(jīng)不得不擺脫了好幾次債務(wù)危機抱怔，不是一次是三次：美國次貸危機; 歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)緊縮; 以及新興市場企業(yè)借貸的破產(chǎn)嘀倒。

But the initial and most painful stage of economic adjustment in emerging markets is coming to an end. Current-account deficits have narrowed, leaving most countries less reliant on foreign borrowing. Their currencies are a lot more competitive. And interest rates are high, so there is scope to relax monetary policy to boost demand. Business spending is already rising in response.

但新興市場經(jīng)濟調(diào)整最初和最痛苦的階段即將結(jié)束。經(jīng)常項目赤字已經(jīng)縮小灌危，大多數(shù)國家減少了對外借款的依賴碳胳。他們的貨幣更有競爭力。由于利率高企浅蚪，所以有放寬貨幣政策，推動需求增長的空間惜傲。商業(yè)已經(jīng)做出反應(yīng)，支出已經(jīng)在上升时甚。

The breadth of the improvement—from Asia to Europe and America—makes for greater confidence that a pick-up is in train. A broad trend is a good proxy for an established trend, notes Manoj Pradhan of Talking Heads Macro, a research firm. Nevertheless,some countries are in better shape than others. India and Indonesia recovered quickly from the taper tantrum; their GDP growth has been fairly strong and steady. At the other end of the spectrum,Turkey and (to a lesser extent) South Africa look unlikely to see a big revival soon.

從亞洲哈踱，歐洲到美國，改善的廣泛程度使我們更有底氣說復(fù)蘇已經(jīng)走上了正軌刀诬。研究公司Talking Heads Macro的Manoj Pradhan指出廣泛程度是趨勢已經(jīng)成型的很好的指標邪财。然而，一些國家比其他國家情況更好些糠馆。印度和印度尼西亞從削減量化寬松恐懼中迅速恢復(fù)出來;他們的GDP增長相當強勁和穩(wěn)定。另一方面又碌，土耳其和（在較小程度上）南非似乎不太可能很快看到像樣的復(fù)蘇绊袋。

In the middle, there are signs that brutal recessions in two of the largest emerging markets, Russia and Brazil, are slowly coming to an end. Inflation in both countries is receding, restoring spending power to consumers.In Russia inflation fell to 4.6% in February, down from a peak of 16.9% two years ago. In the three months ending in September, GDP growth probably turned positive, according to the central bank,which has cut its main interest rate from17% in January 2015 to 10% today; more cuts are likely. Manufacturing activity grew in each of the seven months to February, according to a survey of purchasing managers published by Markit, a data provider.

兩者之間癌别，有跡象表明，最大的兩個新興市場俄羅斯和巴西的嚴重衰退正在緩慢地結(jié)束。兩國的通貨膨脹正在減退姓建，消費者購買力正在恢復(fù)。俄羅斯的通貨膨脹率從兩年前的峰值16.9％下降至二月份的4.6％墅拭。中央銀行預(yù)測，在截至9月份的三個月內(nèi)谍婉，GDP將止跌返正。央行的主要利率從2015年1月的17％降至現(xiàn)在的10％穗熬。還有進一步削減的可能性。數(shù)據(jù)提供商Markit發(fā)布的一份關(guān)于采購經(jīng)理的調(diào)查顯示探遵，到2月份為止制造業(yè)增長已經(jīng)持續(xù)了七個月趣斤，并且每個月都有增長脚粟。

Brazil’s economy shrank again in the final months of 2016, but with inflation tumbling towards the 4.5% target, its central bank has cut its benchmark rate by two percentage points, to 12.25%, since October.Further cuts are again likely. Other commodity producers in Latin America (bar Mexico, where the peso has weakened since Mr Trump was elected) are also relaxing monetary policy.

巴西經(jīng)濟在2016年的最后幾個月再次收縮贴铜，但隨著通貨膨脹率下滑至4.5％的目標找爱，巴西央行10月以來已將基準利率下調(diào)了兩個百分點至12.25％掘殴。進一步下調(diào)也很有可能最疆。拉丁美洲的其他商品生產(chǎn)商（除墨西哥以外，自特朗普當選以來努酸，墨西哥比索走弱）也放松了貨幣政策。