7月2日：《今日美國報》為旗艦的甘耐特報業(yè)6月29日分拆后，連跌4天，跌幅擴(kuò)大醋旦。而分拆的另一半恒水，電視、數(shù)字業(yè)務(wù)部門Tenga卻穩(wěn)步上漲饲齐。分拆的連鎖效應(yīng)也出現(xiàn)了钉凌。由《今日美國報》創(chuàng)始人艾爾·努哈斯創(chuàng)辦的華盛頓 Newseum（新聞博物館）昨天被華盛頓郵報以長篇深入報道的形式，暴出連年虧損目前已經(jīng)身處困境捂人。
這個博物館2008年開館以來御雕，一直由甘耐特基金會資助，其2008至2013年的總捐助額已高達(dá)2.08億美元滥搭。目前甘耐特基金會已經(jīng)改名為自由論壇（Freedom Forum）酸纲。
甘耐特集團(tuán)今天分拆上市瑟匆，一切都在預(yù)料之中闽坡。甘耐特報業(yè)與電視、數(shù)字公公司Tenga表現(xiàn)冰火兩重天愁溜。北京時間十點多的時候疾嗅，Tenga上漲4.48 %，甘耐特報業(yè)下跌6.04%冕象。
甘耐特集團(tuán)今天（6月29日）分拆代承，分析師看好其廣電資產(chǎn)將上漲20%，報業(yè)資產(chǎn)則被看衰渐扮。有分析師舉了個例子论悴，論壇報業(yè)自從去年7月被分拆后，其股價已經(jīng)下跌了36%席爽。
被與論壇報業(yè)相比較意荤，甘耐特的人很惱火啊片。但是只锻，這并不能改變?nèi)藗兊目捶āＩ现芤蛔瞎龋誓吞嘏e行了一次分拆前的投資者說明會齐饮。參加會議的投資者與分析師都認(rèn)為，說明會一半令人鼓舞笤昨，一半氣氛沉悶祖驱。討論廣電資產(chǎn)的那半場，陽光明媚瞒窒，但討論報業(yè)資產(chǎn)的下半場捺僻，陰云密布。
下面是周末 Barron's 和 INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY發(fā)表的兩篇文章。觀點驚人相似匕坯。
Gannett Split Could Lift Broadcast Shares 20%
Gannett is spinning off its newspapers to focus on broadcast. TV could shine, while publishing may flounder.
By?ALEXANDER EULE??June 27, 2015
When?Gannett?CEO Gracia Martore gave her last major presentation as a newspaper executive last week, it seemed like a weight had been lifted from her shoulders. The chief executive strode across the dais at the Park Hyatt, midtown Manhattan’s swanky new hotel, as she unveiledTegna, her new company carved out of Gannett’s prosperous broadcasting and digital segments.
After lunch, the signage in the room was changed, and it was time for “new Gannett” to share its plan for reviving publishing. The Tegna excitement was replaced by a depressing discussion about newspaper ads.
Such is the reality facing Gannett shareholders when the company officially splits in two on Monday, June 29. Technically, the newspapers are being spun out. Existing shareholders will get one share of new Gannett (ticker: GCI) for every two shares they already own in the parent company, henceforth called Tegna (TGNA). Tegna shareholders will own a company with 46 broadcast stations to go with fast-growing Cars.com and CareerBuilder Websites. The sites were created in the 1990s to snatch back classified ads that were being lost to the Web.
Gannett will continue to own USA Today, along with 92 local newspapers across the U.S., and a collection of British papers.
Tegna shares could easily rise 20% in the coming year. But Gannett will be lucky to tread water, as the company seeks a whole new shareholder base.
“Obviously, most investors’ appetite for publishing assets is not great right now,” says Joe Cornell, publisher of Spin-Off Research, who has carefully tracked other publishing spinoffs in the past two years, including?Tribune Publishing?(TPUB),Time(TIME), and?News Corp?(NWSA), the publisher ofBarron’s.
“You’re giving people a hot potato,” Cornell says of the newspaper stock. “I think you’re going to see a lot of guys blow it out.”
TEGNA, BY CONTRAST,could quickly increase its investor base, particularly without the newspaper baggage. The company’s revenue is estimated to jump 20%, to $3.1 billion, this year, boosted in part by the success of Cars.com and CareerBuilder.
Next year, TV will return to a starring role, thanks to the presidential election and the Olympics on NBC. Tegna is the largest independent owner of NBC affiliates. Its local stations, meanwhile, are concentrated in swing states like Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina, where candidates and political action committees will vie for every possible vote by buying pricey local TV ads. For 2016, broadcast revenue alone is slated to jump 18%, to $1.96 billion.
But Olympics don’t happen every year and neither do elections. For Tegna bulls, the most significant opportunity lies in boosting licensing fees paid to the company’s local stations. So-called retransmission fees have doubled in the past two years based on a projected $448 million in 2015. Yet, Tegna believes it’s still vastly underpaid for its content, particularly in comparison with ESPN, which makes roughly $6 for every cable subscriber.
“In most of the markets I’m aware of, if you added up all the retrans going to the local TV stations, it wouldn’t get you, at this point, to what ESPN is getting,” Martore toldBarron’slast week. “But that is going to be rectified.”
Tegna will have ample opportunity to close the gap. Some 90% of its retransmission deals expire in the next 18 months. “We’ve kept our deals at two to three years because frankly the market continues to reset,” she adds.
The higher fees will fall to the bottom line. Spin-Off Research estimates that Tegna could garner earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization from broadcasting of $861 million this year, on top of $386 million from Cars.com and CareerBuilder. If Tegna were to fetch an Ebitda multiple of 11—similar to peerNexstar Broadcasting Group(NXST)—the stock would be worth $37. Tegna’s shares will probably open on Monday at about $30.
RECENT HISTORY PORTENDS?a less hospitable debut for the Gannett spinoff. Tribune Publishing is down 36% since it was spun off last July. Gannett’s “when issued” shares were trading last week at $14.90, for a market value of $1.7 billion. Spin-Off estimates that new Gannett will generate $388 million of Ebtida this year, down 18% from last year.
If they traded at a Tribune-like multiple— 4.5 times Ebitda—Gannett shares would be worth $15.70. But that’s a best-case scenario. The entire industry could get rerated downward if recent trends continue.
At last week’s investor meeting, Gannett said its first-quarter publishing revenue was down 9%. The culprit? “Core print advertising.” Results for the current quarter were trending in the same direction, Gannett disclosed. Don’t expect it to get much better anytime soon.
“At this time, we’re not planning to give specific guidance about revenue or earnings, Alison Engel, chief financial officer for new Gannett, told investors. “Volatility in our markets, particularly advertising, makes it difficult to accurately forecast revenues.” Not the kind of words investors like to hear.
Gannett’s new management team bristles at comparisons with Tribune. CEO Robert Dickey points out that Tribune was laden with debt when it began as an independent company, and lacks the national-to-local synergies that Gannett has with USA Today, providing content to a network of 92 local papers.
IF THERE’S GOOD NEWS?for new Gannett, it’s that the spinoff amounts to a fresh start. The company has cut half of its workforce in the past decade, and it emerges from the parent company debt free. Shares will pay a generous annual dividend of 64 cents a share, a 4.3% yield, which could support the stock after the spin. “We now have the ability to manage our capital in a way that best fits our needs,” Dickey toldBarron’slast week.
Much of the capital could be used to quickly diversify away from print newspapers. “All of our attention is to be a digital company,” Dickey says. “The print platform will be there for some time to come, but that is not the future.”
Dickey tellsBarron’sthat his new company aims to make acquisitions totaling $200 million to $250 million a year. That’s a substantial sum in the publishing world. In 2013, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos bought the Washington Post for $250 million. Gannett’s purchases could drive revenue, and eventually earnings, assuming that the company’s scale allows it to produce synergies and reduce costs at the acquired properties.
Dickey also says that Gannett’s nascent event-sponsorship business could be worth “tens of millions” in revenue. Gannett will need more opportunities like that to offset its fading newspapers. This year, publishing revenue is likely to fall 6%, to $2.99 billion.
Over the past two years, shares of the old Gannett gained 52%—well above the Standard & Poor’s 500’s 31% gain—driven by broadcast and anticipation of the spinoff. For investors, TV remains the main event.
Gannett Splits Up To Aid Transition To Digital
BY?JON FRIEDMAN, FOR INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
For Gannett, the future is now. On Monday,Gannett (NYSE:GCI) will change the course of its 109-year-old corporate history when it follows what is by now the media industry pattern of splitting into two distinct companies in hopes of boosting stockholder value.
"The separation provides each company with enhanced strategic, operating, financial and regulatory flexibility," Gannett CEO Gracia Martore said last year in announcing the split.
The new entity, called Tegna (a reconfiguration of letters in the word Gannett), will encompass broadcast and digital operations. The Gannett company will consist of its traditional newspaper assets, including the national daily USA Today.
Two years ago, Tysons Corner, Va.-based Gannett's reputation as a broadcaster with newspaper assets flourished after its well-received acquisition of Belo, a Dallas-based media company heavier on broadcast rather than print assets.
The move showed Wall Street that Gannett wanted to be known more as a television company than as a print organization.
"By identifying the pieces, Gannett has increased shareholder value with this (split into two companies)," said Michael Holland, head of investment?management?firm Holland & Co. "Further, by splitting the parts of the company, the directors of Gannett have made it clear they are putting a priority on looking out for the investors."
Ahead of the split, Gannett stock touched a 7.5-year high above 38 on Tuesday.
Gannett has powerful assets, particularly in broadcasting. Its TV stations reach about a third of U.S. households and represent the leading affiliate group for CBS and NBC.
But perhaps a more intriguing factor will be the performance of the digital operations. "Digital" is the magic word today in the media industry. Every company wants to find a way to monetize its digital properties by creating a durable?business?model.
Gannett's digital challenge is two-pronged. It must continue to maximize its existing digital properties while coming up with new ones.
Gannett is not new to the digital realm. In addition to its?news?outlets' websites, the company controls Cars.com, the top online destination for automotive consumers, which presents credible and objective information about car shopping, selling and service. Gannett's CareerBuilder site offers help for job seekers, and its G/O Digital helps businesses with digital marketing.
But Wall Street demands consistent growth. To create it, companies must develop winning new products.
This digital growth quest is essential for media firms because the long-running business model that supported the newspaper and magazine industries for decades is broken. The Internet has diverted the ad revenue that had been the lifeblood of the newspaper business.
"Gannett's split is market-centric, not strategic," said media analyst Porter Bibb of Mediatech Capital Partners. "Investors don't really know how new media is going to play out, but they are certain that old media is a melting iceberg."
"The established print media companies are all wrestling with the transition to digital," Bibb said. All are "facing inevitable losses of revenue as their print products continue to lose subscribers and advertisers," he said, but "technologyand fiercely competitive digital companies may bail them out."
Among the mandates for news publishers these days: Find ways to include more video. This is essential because video — and video ads — work well with mobile devices and the millennials whom advertisers covet. When Gannett reported its Q1 earnings in April, the growth in its broadcast and digital operations compensated for reductions in print.
Media brands, though, still need to find a way to combine digital and print ads, and to figure out "how to end the war between print and digital editors, since making breaking news instantaneously available digitally seriously dilutes the printport," Mediatech's Bibb said.
Tegna will look for a fast start after the split, as Wall Street focuses on the newly independent company's prospects.
"The next question to be asked is: What do the digital properties have to do with the broadcast ones?" said Chunka Mui, a principal in The Devil's Advocate, a consulting firm that helps CEOs come up with solutions about technology.
"It might take one more unshackling to enable real innovation in Gannett's — or should I say Tegna's? — aging digital assets," Mui said.
Gannett/Tegna's analyst meeting Monday was only half impressive, according to FBR analyst William Bird. It "featured a peppy presentation and positive investment case for Tegna ... followed by a notably less dynamic investment story for GCI," Bird wrote in aresearchnote Tuesday. "We expect solid investor interest in Tegna and light interest in GCI."
