The Guardian view on Europe after Brexit: unity is strength

衛(wèi)報就英國脫歐后的歐洲發(fā)表觀點(diǎn)：團(tuán)結(jié)就是力量

These are strange and somewhat disorientating times for the European Union. A multipolar world in which China’s influence grows, and Donald Trump’s United States is at best an erratic ally, has created new dilemmas and dangers. Closer to home, Brexit, whatever eventual form it takes, is already transforming the political landscape. For the 27 remaining EU member states, life without Britain truly begins this week. And the first problem to be solved is money.

歐盟正處于前所未有的混亂時期。中國的影響力正在擴(kuò)大犯戏，唐納德·特朗普領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的美國充其量是個不靠譜的盟友，這個多極世界已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了新的困境和危險荒吏。無論英國以何種形式脫歐械拍，歐洲的政治形勢都在悄然生變。 歐盟其他27個成員國本周正式迎來了沒有英國的生活贵少，他們首當(dāng)其沖需要解決的問題是錢峻呕。

At a special summit on Thursday, called by the new European council president Charles Michel, discussions will begin in earnest over the shape of the EU budget from 2021 to 2027. They will be conducted in the absence of one of the biggest contributors to the collective pot. Taking place every seven years, these negotiations are fraught at the best of times; this round is likely to be the most difficult in the EU’s history. Its progress will provide a litmus test of the union’s ability to fashion a successful, confident strategy in challenging circumstances.

由歐洲理事會主席夏爾·米歇爾召集的特別峰會將于本周四(2月20日)召開，旨在確定2021-2027的歐盟預(yù)算掏颊。峰會在沒有英國的情況下進(jìn)行糟红，此前英國是歐盟最大出資國。峰會每7年召開一次，即使在最好的情況下盆偿，談判也充滿了困難掩蛤。這次談判很可能是歐盟歷史上最困難的一次。峰會的進(jìn)展將考驗(yàn)歐盟是否有能力陈肛，在充滿極端困難的情況下制定成功與自信的戰(zhàn)略。

The loss of the UK’s annual contributions has left Brussels with a financial shortfall of around ￡62bn. In stark terms, that means that each country will have to pay more into the pot in future. The questions of how much more, and on what, have already become the source of divisions which could deepen existing antagonisms between east and west and north and south.

失去英國每年的資助兄裂，布魯塞爾的資金缺口大概是620億英鎊句旱。簡單來說，那意味著每個成員國未來將要繳納更多的會費(fèi)晰奖。要多繳多少谈撒，在哪些方面多繳，這些問題已經(jīng)成為分歧的源頭匾南，可能加深東南西北之間的對立情緒啃匿。

A so-called “frugal” faction, represented by prosperous countries such as the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden, is calling for the budget to be capped at 1% of EU gross national income, with a new spending emphasis on areas such as tech innovation and migration. The richer countries are also resisting calls by Mr Michel to phase out rebates to the largest net contributors to the budget. Poorer member states are demanding more money and more focus on traditional goals such as regional development and agricultural subsidies. Crucially, the rise of nationalist politics is informing both sides of the argument: Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, for example, presents regional redistribution of European funds to the east as just compensation for multinational profits routinely funnelled back to the west; in the more well-heeled corners of Europe, the popularity of far-right parties such as the Sweden Democrats and the FvD in the Netherlands fuels the calls for slimmed-down payments to the union’s poorer relations. In one position paper, the “frugals” warn that “placing an ever-increasing financial burden on a small number of member states will not be acceptable to our citizens”.

荷蘭、丹麥和瑞典等節(jié)儉派(預(yù)算凈出資國)要求財政預(yù)算總額占全體成員國國民總收入(GNI)的比例不高于1%蛆楞，并且在預(yù)算分配上應(yīng)重點(diǎn)考慮技術(shù)創(chuàng)新溯乒、移民領(lǐng)域。米歇爾關(guān)于逐步取消向最大凈出資國預(yù)算返還回扣的呼吁也遭到一些富裕國家抵制豹爹。一些欠發(fā)達(dá)國家則要求更高的預(yù)算規(guī)模裆悄，并且要求將重點(diǎn)放在促進(jìn)區(qū)域發(fā)展和維持農(nóng)業(yè)補(bǔ)貼等傳統(tǒng)項(xiàng)目上。至關(guān)重要的是臂聋，民族主義政治的崛起使?fàn)幷撾p方各有各的道理光稼，例如：匈牙利首相維克多·奧爾班(Viktor Orbán)把歐洲資金對東方的資金再分配描述成跨國公司利潤流回西方的補(bǔ)償。而在歐洲較為富裕的地區(qū)孩等，瑞典民主黨和荷蘭民主論壇黨等極右翼政黨的盛行艾君，引發(fā)人們減少對歐盟較差關(guān)系國報酬的呼吁。

In normal times, Germany could be expected to act as an anchor of stability amid such turbulent waters. But Angela Merkel’s government also finds itself looking over its shoulder at nationalists.

在一份立場文件中肄方，“節(jié)儉國家”警告說：“不斷增漲的財政負(fù)擔(dān)集中到少數(shù)成員國身上冰垄，將不為我們的公民所接受”。通常情況下权她，在這樣的動蕩局勢中播演，德國都有望成為“定海神針”。但是伴奥，安格拉·默克爾政府發(fā)現(xiàn)自己也在提防民族主義者的侵害写烤。

Last week Mrs Merkel’s successor as chair of the CDU, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, stepped down, ushering in a period of unpredictable transition on the German right. Her resignation followed a decision by CDU politicians in the eastern state of Thuringia to break the taboo on forming alliances with the far-right Eurosceptic party Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD). Chancellor Merkel has already announced her intention not to stand for office again in elections due in 2021, although that contest might now come sooner. As it seeks to elect a new leader, the CDU thus faces its own period of soul-searching on whether it should tack to the nationalist right in order to see off the AfD threat.

上周默克爾的繼任者，安妮格雷特·克蘭普·卡倫鮑爾（Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer）宣布辭去基民盟（德國最大的政黨）主席一職拾徙，這使得德國右翼迎來一段始料未及的過渡期洲炊。在她辭職之前，東部圖林根州的基民盟政治家們就已經(jīng)決定打破與AfD(德國的極右翼政黨德國新選擇黨)結(jié)盟的禁忌。默克爾總理已經(jīng)宣布2021年不再尋求連任暂衡，盡管選舉時間可能會提前询微。因此，基民盟在選取自己的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人時也面臨著取舍狂巢，即是否應(yīng)該抓住民族主義的權(quán)利以抵御AfD的威脅.

The world needs a flourishing EU which can unite around common goals. Among the subjects up for discussion, for example, in this week’s summit, is the ￡100bn “green deal” designed to subsidise less wealthy member states on the path to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. It would be lamentable if this initiative succumbed to a new politics of division. In the age of Trump and the rise of China, it also falls to Europe to make the case for economic cooperation and compromise and lead the way on issues such as human rights and digital privacy. For the EU, life without Britain begins in earnest tomorrow. And the stakes could not be higher.

世界需要一個團(tuán)結(jié)一致的撑毛， 繁榮的歐盟。例如唧领，在本周的特別峰會上藻雌，將要討論價值1000億英鎊的"綠色協(xié)議"，旨在幫助欠發(fā)達(dá)成員國在2050年前實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零碳排放斩个。如果這一倡議因政治分歧無法落實(shí)胯杭，將是十分可悲的。在特朗普時代受啥，伴隨著中國的崛起做个，歐洲也有理由在人權(quán)和數(shù)字隱私等問題上展開經(jīng)濟(jì)合作，作出經(jīng)濟(jì)妥協(xié)滚局，甚至走在前列居暖。明天，歐盟即將迎來沒有英國的日子藤肢，賭注也不可能更高了膝但。