英文早讀第32篇，選自巴菲特年度信玖院，友才翻譯菠红。

The Question of Size
關(guān)于規(guī)模的問題

Aside from the question as to what happens upon my death (which with a metaphysical twist, is a subject of keen interest to me), I am probably asked most often:"What affect is the rapid growth of partnership funds going to have upon performance?"
除了關(guān)于我去世了會怎樣的問題（有點邪乎的扭曲第岖，我對這個話題也很感興趣）难菌，我或許被問到最多的是：“快速增長的合伙資金將會怎樣影響表現(xiàn)？”

Larger funds tug in two directions. From the standpoint of "passive" investments, where we do not attempt by the size of our investment to influence corporate policies, larger sums hurt results. For the mutual fund or trust department investing in securities with very broad markets, the effect of large sums should be to penalize results only very slightly. Buying 10,000 shares of General Motors is only slightly more costly (on the basis of mathematical expectancy) than buying 1,000 or 100 shares.
更大的資金拖進(jìn)了兩個方向蔑滓。從消極投資的觀點來看郊酒，我們不會到可以影響公司策略的投資規(guī)模，更大的數(shù)量會損傷結(jié)果键袱。對于共同基金和信托在大盤股票中投資燎窘，大資金對結(jié)果的影響微乎其微。買10000股通用汽車比買1000股或者100股僅僅貴一點點（基于數(shù)學(xué)算法的預(yù)期）蹄咖。

In some of the securities in which we deal (but not all by any means) buying 10,000 shares is much more difficult than buying 100 and is sometimes impossible. Therefore, for a portion of our portfolio, larger sums are definitely disadvantageous. For a larger portion of the portfolio, I would say increased sums are only slightly disadvantageous. This category includes most of our work-outs and some generals.
在部分我們交易的股票中（無論如何不是所有的）買10000股比買100股困難的多褐健，有時是不可能的。因此，對于部分我們的投資蚜迅，大資金確實是劣勢舵匾。對我們交易的更多的股票而言，我想說增加的資金僅僅是微微劣勢谁不。這個策略包括大部分的套利類和一些一般類坐梯。

However, in the case of control situations increased funds are a definite advantage. A "Sanborn Map" cannot be accomplished without the wherewithal. My definite belief is that the opportunities increase in this field as the funds increase. This is due to the sharp fall-off in competition as the ante mounts plus the important positive correlation that exists between increased size of company and lack of concentrated ownership of that company's stock.
然而，對于控股類的情況而言刹帕，增加的資金是實打?qū)嵉膬?yōu)勢吵血。像三伯恩地圖公司沒有這些資金是不能完成的。我確信隨著資金增加在這一領(lǐng)域的機會也在增加偷溺。這是因為競爭驟然減少蹋辅，當(dāng)賭注增加，再加上增長的公司規(guī)模和公司股份集中持股的缺乏之間的重要關(guān)系挫掏。

Which is more important -- the decreasing prospects of profitability in passive investments or the increasing prospects in control investments? I can't give a definite answer to this since to a great extent it depends on the type of market in which we are operating. My present opinion is that there is no reason to think these should not be offsetting factors; if my opinion should change, you will be told. I can say, most assuredly, that our results in 1960 and 1961 would not have been better if we had been operating with the much smaller sums of 1956 and 1957.
哪一個是更重要的——在消極投資中盈利水平降低的預(yù)期還是在控股類投資中增長的預(yù)期晕翠？我不能給出確切答案，因為這很大程度上取決于我們操作的市場類型砍濒。我現(xiàn)在的觀點是淋肾，沒有理由不認(rèn)為這些資金不能看作一種補償因素；如果我的觀點變了爸邢，你會被告知樊卓。我可以說，很確定杠河，我們在1960年和1960年取得的成果不會比只有1956年和1957年更少資金時操作的更好碌尔。

And a Prediction
一個預(yù)測

Regular readers (I may be flattering myself) will feel I have left the tracks when I start talking about predictions. This is one thing from which I have always shield away and I still do in the normal sense.
長期讀者（我或許在自賣自夸）會有感覺當(dāng)我開始談到預(yù)測時就脫軌了。這是一件我一直避免的事情券敌，我會繼續(xù)基于嘗試做事唾戚。

I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two since I don't have the faintest idea.
我當(dāng)然不會去預(yù)測一般的商業(yè)或者股市在下一年或者兩年將會怎樣，因為我對此沒有任何想法待诅。

I think you can be quite sure that over the next ten years there are going to be a few years when the general market is plus 20% or 25%, a few when it is minus on the same order, and a majority when it is in between. I haven't any notion as to the sequence in which these will occur, nor do I think it is of any great importance for the long-term investor.
我認(rèn)為你可以相當(dāng)確定在接下來10年叹坦，有一些年份大盤會漲20%或者25%，有一些年份同樣比例下降卑雁，大部分年份介于兩者之間募书。關(guān)于這些發(fā)生的次序我沒有主意，我也不認(rèn)為這對長期投資者很重要测蹲。

Over any long period of years, I think it likely that the Dow will probably produce something like 5% to 7% per year compounded from a combination of dividends and market value gain. Despite the experience of recent years, anyone expecting substantially better than that from the general market probably faces disappointment.
在任何長期的一段時間莹捡，我認(rèn)為有可能道瓊斯指數(shù)會產(chǎn)生年化復(fù)合5%到7%的增長，包括股息和市值增長合在一起扣甲。盡管有最近這些年的經(jīng)歷篮赢，任何人期望會比大盤明顯領(lǐng)先可能都會面臨失望。

Our job is to pile up yearly advantages over the performance of the Dow without worrying too much about whether the absolute results in a given year are a plus or minus. I would consider a year in which we were down 15% and the Dow declined 25% to be much superior to a year when both the partnership and the Dow advanced 20%. I have stressed this point in talking with partners and have watched them nod their heads with varing degrees of enthusiasm. It is most important to me that you fully understand my reasoning in this regard and agree with me not only in your cerebral regions, but also down in the pit of your stomach.
我們的工作是年復(fù)一年的累計優(yōu)于道瓊斯指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)，而不用過多擔(dān)心在某一年的絕對值是正還是負(fù)启泣。我會考慮我們下降15%而道瓊斯指數(shù)下降25%的年份會比我們的合伙基金和道瓊斯指數(shù)都增長20%的年份要好得多媒咳。我已經(jīng)在和合伙人談?wù)摃r強調(diào)了這一點，并且看到了他們伴隨著不同程度的興奮而點頭贊成种远。對我來說最重要的是充分理解我在這一方面的推論并同意我涩澡，不僅是在你的理智范疇，同時需要降低你的胃口預(yù)期坠敷。

For the reasons outlined in my method of operation, our best years relative to the Dow are likely to be in declining or static markets. Therefore, the advantage we seek will probably come in sharply varying amounts. There are bound to be years when we are surpassed by the Dow, but if over a long period we can average ten percentage points per year better than it, I will feel the results have been satisfactory.
根據(jù)我的運作方法的概述妙同，我們相較于道瓊斯指數(shù)最好的年份似乎是下降的或持穩(wěn)的市場。因此膝迎，我們需求的優(yōu)勢可能會有巨大的差異粥帚。有一些年份會讓我們被道瓊斯指數(shù)超越，但是如果長期來看限次，我們可以平均優(yōu)于道瓊斯指數(shù)10個百分點芒涡，我會對這個結(jié)果滿意。

Specifically, if the market should be down 35% or 40% in a year (and I feel this has a high probability of occuring one year in the next ten--no one knows which one), we should be down only 15% or 20%. If it is more or less unchanged during the year, we would hope to be up about ten percentage points. If it is up 20% or more, we would struggle to be up as much. The consequence of performance such as this over a period of years would mean that if the Dow produces a 5% to 7% per year overall gain compounded, I would hope our results might be 15% to 17% per year.
具體來說卖漫，如果市場一年下降35%或者40%（我認(rèn)為這會大概率在接下來10年的某一年發(fā)生——沒有人知道哪一年）费尽，我們應(yīng)當(dāng)下降15%或者20%。如果這年基本沒有變化羊始，我們會希望增長大約10個百分點旱幼。如果道瓊斯指數(shù)增長20%或者更多，我們將會艱難的去增長同樣多突委。這個在這么長時間年份表現(xiàn)的推論意味著如果道瓊斯指數(shù)年化復(fù)合凈值增長5%到7%柏卤，我希望我們的結(jié)果會是每年15%到17%。

The above expections may sound somewhat rash, and there is no question but that they may appear very much so when viewed from the vantage point of 1965 or 1970. It may turn out I am completely wrong. However, I feel the partners are certainly entitled to know what I am thinking in this regard even though the nature of the business is such as to introduce a high probability of error in such expectations. In anyone year, the variations may be quite substantial. This happend in 1961, but fortunately the variation was on the pleasant side. They won't all be!
上面這些預(yù)測或許聽起來有點粗糙匀油，他們沒有問題但他們或許到1965年或者1970年回顧收益點數(shù)時才更清晰缘缚。它或許結(jié)果證明我完全錯了。然而敌蚜，我認(rèn)為合伙人應(yīng)該有權(quán)知道我在這一領(lǐng)域正在思考的東西盡管商業(yè)的真諦可能最終導(dǎo)致了我這些預(yù)測的高概率錯誤桥滨。在任何一年，差異似乎都很大钝侠。這在1961年發(fā)生了该园，但是幸運的是酸舍，這個差異時令人開心的一面帅韧。他們不會都是！

Miscellaneous
雜事

We are now installed in an office at 810 Kiewit Plaza with a first-class secretary, Beth Henley, and an associate with considerable experience in my type of securities, Bill Scott. My father is sharing office space with us (he also shares the expenses) and doing a brokerage business in securities. None of our brokerage is done through him so we have no "vicuna coat" situation.
我們現(xiàn)在在基偉特廣場810室設(shè)立了辦公室啃勉，有一個頭等助理貝斯·亨利忽舟，和一個在我股票領(lǐng)域有很多經(jīng)驗的同事比爾·斯考特。我的父親和我分享辦公空間（他同樣分擔(dān)花費），他在做股票經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)叮阅。我們的股票經(jīng)濟(jì)沒有任何一件給他做刁品，因此我們沒有“駝羊絨外套”的事情。

Overall, I expect our overhead, excluding interest on borrowing and Nebraska Intangibles Tax, to run less than 0.5% of 1% of net assets. We should get our money's worth from this expenditure, and you are most cordially invited to drop in and see how the money is being spent.
總的來說浩姥，我希望我們的運作花費挑随，除掉借款利息和內(nèi)布拉斯州無形稅后，少于凈資產(chǎn)的0.5%或1%勒叠。我們應(yīng)當(dāng)使我們的錢值這些開銷兜挨，我們很熱情地邀請你來順道拜訪，看一看這些錢是如何被花的眯分。

With over 90 partners and probably 40 or so securities, you can understand that it is quite a welcome relief to me shake loose some of the details.
有超過90名合伙人和大約40支股票拌汇，你可以理解說一說這些細(xì)節(jié)對我是一個很好的解脫。

We presently have partners residing in locations from California to Vermont, and assets at the beginning of 1962 amounted to 7,178,500.00. Susie and I have an interest in the partnership amounting to 1,025,000.00, and other relatives of mine have a combined interest totalling 782,600.00. The minimum for new partners last year was 25,000, but I am giving some thought to increasing it this year.
我們現(xiàn)在的合伙人定居在從加州到佛蒙特州的地方弊决，在1962年初的資產(chǎn)達(dá)到了717.85萬美金噪舀。蘇西和我在合伙基金的股份到102.5萬美金，我的其他的親戚總共擁有78萬2600美金的股份飘诗。去年對新合伙人的最小投資金額是2.5萬美金与倡，但是我想今年再增加這個金額。

Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Company did an excellent job of expediting the audit, providing tax figures much earlier than in the past. They assure me this performance can be continued.
畢特馬威克米歇爾合伙公司在加快審計上做了卓越的工作昆稿，比過去提供稅務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)早很多蒸走。他們對我承諾這個表現(xiàn)會持續(xù)下去。

Let me hear from you regarding questions you may have on any aspects of this letter, your audit, status of your partnership interest, etc. that may puzzle you.
讓我聽到你關(guān)于這封信任何方面的問題貌嫡，你的審計比驻，你的合伙基金收益狀態(tài)等等，他們可能困擾著你岛抄。

Cordially Warren E. Buffett.
熱情地沃倫 E. 巴菲特

75.aside from：除了别惦；除……之外
76.as to：至于；談到夫椭；關(guān)于
77.metaphysical：形而上的掸掸；玄學(xué)的
78.twist：扭曲；捻蹭秋、搓扰付；（用手）轉(zhuǎn)動、旋轉(zhuǎn)仁讨；使彎曲羽莺；使纏繞
79.keen：渴望；激烈的洞豁；熱衷于盐固；強烈的荒给；有興趣的；低廉的刁卜；（為死者）慟哭志电；挽歌
80.tug：（朝某一方向用力）拉；拖蛔趴；拽挑辆；猛拉；拖船
81.standpoint：立場孝情；觀點
82.penalize：處罰之拨；懲罰；（體育運動中）判罰咧叭；處以刑罰蚀乔；置于不利低位
83.costly：昂貴的；花錢多的菲茬；造成損失的吉挣；價錢高的；引起困難的
84.expectancy：預(yù)期婉弹；期望睬魂；期待；預(yù)料镀赌；盼望
85.passive：被動的氯哮；消極的
86.by no means：無論如何；盡一切辦法
87.wherewithal：（做某事的）所需資金商佛；必要的設(shè)備喉钢；所需技術(shù)
88.fall-off：（數(shù)量的）減少；（質(zhì)量的）降低
89.ante：賭注良姆；預(yù)付的一筆款肠虽；分擔(dān)額；下賭注玛追；付款
90.correlation：相關(guān)税课；相關(guān)性；關(guān)聯(lián)痊剖；相互關(guān)系
91.concentrate：集中（注意力）韩玩；使……集中；聚精會神
92.mount：攀登陆馁；登上找颓；準(zhǔn)備；爬上氮惯；組織開展叮雳；逐步增加想暗；爬上（雌性動物的背）進(jìn)行交配妇汗；托架帘不；山
93.profitability：盈利能力
94.offset：補償；抵消杨箭；彌補寞焙；膠印的
95.flatter：奉承；討好互婿；使高興捣郊；使感到榮幸；使顯得更漂亮慈参；向……諂媚
96.shield：保護(hù)某人或某物呛牲；給……加防護(hù)罩；盾驮配；護(hù)罩娘扩；盾形徽章；盾形獎牌
97.faintest：（用于否定句壮锻，起強調(diào)作用）極小的琐旁；些微的；一丁點的
98.pile：摞猜绣；堆灰殴；疊放；蜂擁掰邢；裝入牺陶；捰起
99.nod：點頭致意；打盹辣之；點頭示意义图；（朝……方向）點頭
100.enthusiasm：熱情；熱忱召烂；熱心碱工；熱衷的事務(wù)
101.cerebral：大腦的；智力的奏夫；理智的
102.pit：礦井
103.stomach：胃怕篷；腹部；能吃酗昼；欣賞廊谓；吃得下；欣然接受麻削；喜歡和……相處
104.rash：輕率的蒸痹；魯莽的春弥；皮疹；疹叠荠；許多匿沛；大量；（涌現(xiàn)的）令人不快的事物
105.vantage：優(yōu)勢
106.entitle：使享有權(quán)利榛鼎；給……命名逃呼；使符合資格；賦予權(quán)力
107.pleasant：令人愉快的者娱；宜人的抡笼；友好的；吸引人的黄鳍；文雅的
108.miscellaneous：各種各樣的推姻；混雜的
109.install：安裝；安頓框沟；建立藏古；使就職；任命
110.secretary：秘書街望；部長校翔；助理；大臣灾前；干事防症；文書
111.brokerage：經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)；經(jīng)紀(jì)人傭金
112.vicuna coat：駱馬絨外套哎甲∧枨茫“駱馬絨外套事件”(Vicuna Coat Affair)，1958年炭玫，美國總統(tǒng)艾森豪威爾(Dwight Eisenhower)的幕僚長舍曼?亞當(dāng)斯(Sherman Adams)奈嘿，這位當(dāng)年美國政壇最有影響力的鐵腕，因為收了一件外套禮物而終止了仕途吞加。送他外套的是紡織業(yè)的巨頭裙犹，巨頭當(dāng)時正在接受聯(lián)邦調(diào)查。對亞當(dāng)斯的指控稱衔憨，亞當(dāng)斯受豪禮左右叶圃，試圖維護(hù)巨頭的利益、影響聯(lián)邦機構(gòu)的裁定践图。
113.overhead：開銷掺冠；經(jīng)常費用；經(jīng)常開支码党；（飛機）頂艙德崭；高架的斥黑；管理費用的；經(jīng)費的
114.intangible：無形的
115.expenditure：支出眉厨；開支锌奴；費用；消費缺猛；耗費
116.cordially：非常缨叫；十分椭符；熱情友好地荔燎；和藹可親地
117.drop in：突然走訪；順道拜訪
118.relief：寬慰销钝；安心有咨；救濟(jì)；浮雕蒸健；消除座享；（痛苦、焦慮）減輕似忧；解圍渣叛；解困；救援物品
119.reside：居住在盯捌；定居于
120.expedite：加快淳衙；加速；迅速的饺著；沒有阻礙的
121.audit：審計箫攀；稽核；檢查
122.outline：概述幼衰；略述靴跛；顯示……的輪廓；勾勒……的外形