5.3 Synthesize the situation through time.
5.3隨著時(shí)間軸的推移來統(tǒng)籌局勢(shì)
To see how the dots connect through time you must collect, analyze, and sort different types of information, which isn’t easy. For example, let’s imagine a day in which eight outcomes occur. Some are good, some bad. Let’s illustrate this day as shown, with each type of event represented by a letter and the quality of the outcome represented by its height.
為了看清這些小圓點(diǎn)隨著時(shí)間軸的推移是如何連接起來的，你必須對(duì)不同類型的信息進(jìn)行收集丸升、分析和優(yōu)先級(jí)排序，然而做到這些并不容易淑履。舉個(gè)例子，想象一下某一天有8個(gè)結(jié)果產(chǎn)生涧卵，這些結(jié)果有好也有壞极景。讓我們用下面這張圖來表現(xiàn)這一天，每種類型的事件由一個(gè)字母表示疆股，事件成果的質(zhì)量由這個(gè)字母所在的高度體現(xiàn)。
In order to see the day this way, you must categorize outcomes by type (signified by letters) and quality (the higher up the graph, the better), which will require synthesizing a by-and-large assessment of each. (To make the example more concrete, imagine you’re running an ice cream shop and the W’s represent sales, the X’s represent customer experience ratings, the Y’s represent press and reviews, the Z’s represent staff engagement, etc.) Keep in mind that our example is a relatively simple one: just eight occurrences over one day.
為了用這種方式看清這一天倒槐，你必須按照類型（用字母表示）和質(zhì)量（在圖表上越高表示質(zhì)量越好）對(duì)這些結(jié)果進(jìn)行分類旬痹，這就需要對(duì)每個(gè)結(jié)果綜合出一個(gè)大體正確的評(píng)估。（為了讓這個(gè)例子更加具體，設(shè)想你正在經(jīng)營一家冰淇淋店两残，字母W代表銷售額永毅，X代表客戶體驗(yàn)評(píng)分，Y代表新聞和評(píng)論人弓，Z代表員工敬業(yè)度沼死，等等。）記住崔赌，我們舉的只是個(gè)相對(duì)簡單的案例：一天只有8個(gè)事件意蛀。
From the chart on the right, you can see that it was a great day for sales (because the W’s are at the top) and a bad day for customer experience (the X’s). You might conjecture why—maybe a crowd generated sales but produced long lines.
從上圖中你可以看到這一天的業(yè)績非常好（因?yàn)閃在最頂部），但與之同時(shí)健芭，客戶體驗(yàn)很糟糕（看X的位置）浸间。你可能會(huì)推測(cè)其中的原因——也許是大的客流量帶來的高銷售額，但卻因此要排很長的隊(duì)吟榴。
Now let’s look at what a month of workdays looks like. Confusing, eh?
現(xiàn)在我們來看看一整個(gè)月的工作日狀況∧野猓看暈了吧吩翻？
The chart below plots just the type X dots, which you can see are improving.
下面這張圖只繪制了X型點(diǎn)的軌跡，你可以看到結(jié)果正在改善锥咸。
People who are good at pulling out such patterns of events are rare and essential, but as with most abilities, synthesizing through time is only partially innate; even if you’re not good at it, you can get better through practice. You’ll increase your chances of succeeding at it if you follow the next principle.
擅長制圖狭瞎、讀圖的人很罕見，但他們不可或缺搏予。同大多數(shù)能力一樣熊锭，隨著時(shí)間的推移統(tǒng)籌信息的能力也只有部分是與生俱來的；即便一開始你并不擅長雪侥，但通過不斷地刻意練習(xí)碗殷，最終定能夠越做越好。如果你能遵循下面的原則速缨，你在這方面能力成功提升的概率將會(huì)增加锌妻。
a. Keep in mind both the rates of change and the levels of things, and the relationships between them. When determining an acceptable rate of improvement for something, it is its level in relation to the rate of change that matters. I often see people lose sight of this. They say “it’s getting better” without noticing how far below the bar it is and whether the rate of change will get it above the bar in an acceptable amount of time. If someone who has been getting grades of 30s and 40s on their tests raised their scores to 50s over the course of a few months it would be accurate to say that they are getting better, but they would still be woefully inadequate. Everything important in your life needs to be on a trajectory to be above the bar and headed toward excellent at an appropriate pace. The lines in the chart on the next page show how the dots connect through time. A’s trajectory gets you above the bar in an appropriate amount of time; B’s does not. To make good decisions, you need to understand the reality of which of these two cases is happening.
a.要同時(shí)關(guān)注進(jìn)步的速度和所達(dá)到的水準(zhǔn)，以及二者之間的關(guān)系旬牲。在確認(rèn)某事物可接受的改進(jìn)率時(shí)仿粹，關(guān)鍵是要確認(rèn)其改進(jìn)率和它要達(dá)到的水準(zhǔn)之間的關(guān)系。我經(jīng)吃看到人們忽略了這一點(diǎn)吭历。他們說「某事越來越好了」，卻沒有注意到它離標(biāo)準(zhǔn)線還有多遠(yuǎn)擂橘，以及以這樣的改進(jìn)率是否能在可接受的時(shí)間段內(nèi)超過標(biāo)準(zhǔn)線晌区。
如果某些人一直在測(cè)試中考30-40分，經(jīng)過幾個(gè)月的課程后提升到了50分。雖然他們確實(shí)在進(jìn)步契讲，但是他們?nèi)匀皇菄?yán)重不能勝任的仿吞。你人生中的每件重要的事情都需要以一個(gè)合適的步調(diào)，沿著一個(gè)會(huì)超過及格線并且朝向卓越的軌跡去提升捡偏。下頁圖表中的線條顯示了隨著時(shí)間的推移這些點(diǎn)有怎樣的聯(lián)系唤冈。A的軌跡可以讓你在一段合適的時(shí)間內(nèi)超過及格線；B的卻不能银伟。為了作出一個(gè)好的決策你虹，你需要明白現(xiàn)實(shí)中正在發(fā)生的是這兩種情況中的哪一種。
b.Be imprecise. Understand the concept of “by-and-large” and use approximations.Because our educational system is hung up on precision, the art of being good at approximations is insufficiently valued. This impedes conceptual thinking. For example, when asked to multiply 38 by 12, most people do it the slow and hard way rather than simply rounding 38 up to 40, rounding 12 down to 10, and quickly determining that the answer is about 400. Look at the ice cream shop example and imagine the value of quickly seeing the approximate relationships between the dots versus taking the time to see all the edges precisely. It would be silly to spend time doing that, yet that’s exactly what most people do. “By-and-large” is the level at which you need to understand most things in order to make effective decisions. Whenever a big-picture “by-and-large” statement is made and someone replies “Not always,” my instinctual reaction is that we are probably about to dive into the weeds—i.e., into a discussion of the exceptions rather than the rule, and in the process we will lose sight of the rule. To help people at Bridgewater avoid this time waster, one of our just-out-of-college associates coined a saying I often repeat: “When you ask someone whether something is true and they tell you that it’s not totally true, it’s probably by-and-large true.”
b.不要過分追求精確彤避。懂得“大約”這個(gè)概念并知道使用近似值傅物。因?yàn)槲覀兊慕逃w系總是沉溺于追求精確，擅長估算的藝術(shù)卻沒有得到充分重視琉预。這阻礙了概念性思考董饰。比如，當(dāng)問到38*12是多少時(shí)圆米，大部分人的計(jì)算方式又慢又難卒暂，而不是簡單的取38的近似值40，12的近似值10娄帖，然后快速確定答案是400左右也祠。看這個(gè)冰淇淋店的例子近速，想象一下快速看出點(diǎn)與點(diǎn)之間大致關(guān)系的價(jià)值诈嘿，再對(duì)比下耗費(fèi)大量時(shí)間精確地看所有邊角信息的價(jià)值∠鞔校花費(fèi)時(shí)間這么去做看起來很傻奖亚，但這就是大部分人會(huì)做的事情∥鲈遥“大約”指的是為了做出有效決策你需要知道的大部分信息遂蛀。當(dāng)我們對(duì)大局做了一個(gè)“大約”的聲明，收到的反饋是“不總是這樣”干厚，我的第一反應(yīng)就是我很可能淹沒在雜草中了——也就是李滴，討論的是個(gè)例而不是常規(guī)情況，在這樣的過程中我們經(jīng)常會(huì)忽視常規(guī)情況蛮瞄。為了幫助橋水公司的員工避免在這方面浪費(fèi)時(shí)間所坯，我們一個(gè)剛大學(xué)畢業(yè)的伙伴創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)警句，我經(jīng)常會(huì)重復(fù)它：“如果你問某個(gè)人這件事是否是真的挂捅，得到的答復(fù)是并不全是真的芹助，那么它很可能‘大約’是真的。”
c. Remember the 80/20 Rule and know what the key 20 percent is. The 80/20 Rule states that you get 80 percent of the value out of something from 20 percent of the information or effort. (It’s also true that you’re likely to exert 80 percent of your effort getting the final 20 percent of value.) Understanding this rule saves you from getting bogged down in unnecessary detail once you’ve gotten most of the learning you need to make a good decision.
c.要記住二八法則状土，并知道這關(guān)鍵的20%是什么无蜂。二八法則說的是80%的價(jià)值來自20%的信息或努力。（這句也是真的：你傾向用80%的努力獲得最終20%的價(jià)值蒙谓。）懂得這個(gè)法則可以讓你一旦獲得足夠的信息做出好的決策斥季，就能及時(shí)抽離出來，而不至于拘泥于不必要的細(xì)節(jié)中累驮。
d. Be an imperfectionist. Perfectionists spend too much time on little differences at the margins at the expense of the important things. There are typically just five to ten important factors to consider when making a decision. It is important to understand these really well, though the marginal gains of studying even the important things past a certain point are limited.
d.不要做完美主義者酣倾。完美主義者花費(fèi)太多的時(shí)間在邊緣部分的細(xì)微區(qū)別上，代價(jià)卻是犧牲重要的事情谤专。通常情況下躁锡，做一個(gè)決策只有5-10個(gè)重要的因素需要考慮。理解這一點(diǎn)很關(guān)鍵置侍，就算是學(xué)習(xí)重要的事情超過一定的程度映之，邊際效益也很有限。
