Predict daily bike rental ridership using neural network
# IMPORT
%matplotlib inline
%config InlineBackend.figure_format = 'retina'
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
Load and prepare the data
data_path = 'Bike-Sharing-Dataset/hour.csv'
rides = pd.read_csv(data_path)
rides.head()
rides[:24*10].plot(x='dteday', y='cnt')
image.png
Dummy variables
Here we have some categorical variables like season, weather, month. To include these in our model, we'll need to make binary dummy variables. This is simple to do with Pandas thanks to get_dummies().
dummy_fields = ['season', 'weathersit', 'mnth', 'hr', 'weekday']
for each in dummy_fields:
dummies = pd.get_dummies(rides[each], prefix=each, drop_first=False)
rides = pd.concat([rides, dummies], axis=1)
fields_to_drop = ['instant', 'dteday', 'season', 'weathersit',
'weekday', 'atemp', 'mnth', 'workingday', 'hr']
data = rides.drop(fields_to_drop, axis=1)
data.head()
Scaling target variables
quant_features = ['casual', 'registered', 'cnt', 'temp', 'hum', 'windspeed']
# Store scalings in a dictionary so we can convert back later
scaled_features = {}
for each in quant_features:
mean, std = data[each].mean(), data[each].std()
scaled_features[each] = [mean, std]
data.loc[:, each] = (data[each] - mean)/std
Splitting the data into training, testing, and validation sets
# Save data for approximately the last 21 days
test_data = data[-21*24:]
# Now remove the test data from the data set
data = data[:-21*24]
# Separate the data into features and targets
target_fields = ['cnt', 'casual', 'registered']
features, targets = data.drop(target_fields, axis=1), data[target_fields]
test_features, test_targets = test_data.drop(target_fields, axis=1), test_data[target_fields]
# Hold out the last 60 days or so of the remaining data as a validation set
train_features, train_targets = features[:-60*24], targets[:-60*24]
val_features, val_targets = features[-60*24:], targets[-60*24:]
Build the network
image.png
- Implement the sigmoid function to use as the activation function. Set self.activation_function in init to your sigmoid function.
- Implement the forward pass in the train method.
- Implement the backpropagation algorithm in the train method, including calculating the output error.
- Implement the forward pass in the run method.
class NeuralNetwork(object):
def __init__(self, input_nodes, hidden_nodes, output_nodes, learning_rate):
# Set number of nodes in input, hidden and output layers.
self.input_nodes = input_nodes
self.hidden_nodes = hidden_nodes
self.output_nodes = output_nodes
# Initialize weights
self.weights_input_to_hidden = np.random.normal(0.0, self.input_nodes**-0.5,
(self.input_nodes, self.hidden_nodes))
self.weights_hidden_to_output = np.random.normal(0.0, self.hidden_nodes**-0.5,
(self.hidden_nodes, self.output_nodes))
self.lr = learning_rate
#### TODO: Set self.activation_function to your implemented sigmoid function ####
#
# Note: in Python, you can define a function with a lambda expression,
# as shown below.
self.activation_function = lambda x : 1/(1 + np.exp(-x)) # Replace 0 with your sigmoid calculation.
### If the lambda code above is not something you're familiar with,
# You can uncomment out the following three lines and put your
# implementation there instead.
#
#def sigmoid(x):
# return 0 # Replace 0 with your sigmoid calculation here
#self.activation_function = sigmoid
def train(self, features, targets):
''' Train the network on batch of features and targets.
Arguments
---------
features: 2D array, each row is one data record, each column is a feature
targets: 1D array of target values
'''
n_records = features.shape[0]
delta_weights_i_h = np.zeros(self.weights_input_to_hidden.shape)
delta_weights_h_o = np.zeros(self.weights_hidden_to_output.shape)
for X, y in zip(features, targets):
#### Implement the forward pass here ####
### Forward pass ###
# TODO: Hidden layer - Replace these values with your calculations.
hidden_inputs = np.dot(X, self.weights_input_to_hidden) # signals into hidden layer
hidden_outputs = self.activation_function(hidden_inputs) # signals from hidden layer
# TODO: Output layer - Replace these values with your calculations.
final_inputs = np.dot(hidden_outputs, self.weights_hidden_to_output) # signals into final output layer
final_outputs = final_inputs # signals from final output layer
#### Implement the backward pass here ####
### Backward pass ###
# TODO: Output error - Replace this value with your calculations.
error = y - final_outputs # Output layer error is the difference between desired target and actual output.
# TODO: Calculate the hidden layer's contribution to the error
output_error_term = error
hidden_error = np.dot(output_error_term, self.weights_hidden_to_output.T)
# TODO: Backpropagated error terms - Replace these values with your calculations.
hidden_error_term = hidden_error * hidden_outputs * (1 - hidden_outputs)
# Weight step (input to hidden)
delta_weights_i_h += hidden_error_term * X[:, None]
# Weight step (hidden to output)
delta_weights_h_o += output_error_term * hidden_outputs[:,None]
# TODO: Update the weights - Replace these values with your calculations.
self.weights_hidden_to_output += self.lr * delta_weights_h_o / n_records # update hidden-to-output weights with gradient descent step
self.weights_input_to_hidden += self.lr * delta_weights_i_h / n_records # update input-to-hidden weights with gradient descent step
def run(self, features):
''' Run a forward pass through the network with input features
Arguments
---------
features: 1D array of feature values
'''
#### Implement the forward pass here ####
# TODO: Hidden layer - replace these values with the appropriate calculations.
hidden_inputs = np.dot(features, self.weights_input_to_hidden) # signals into hidden layer
hidden_outputs = self.activation_function(hidden_inputs) # signals from hidden layer
# TODO: Output layer - Replace these values with the appropriate calculations.
final_inputs = np.dot(hidden_outputs, self.weights_hidden_to_output) # signals into final output layer
final_outputs = final_inputs # signals from final output layer
return final_outputs
Training the network
import sys
### Set the hyperparameters here ###
iterations = 100
learning_rate = 0.1
hidden_nodes = 2
output_nodes = 1
N_i = train_features.shape[1]
network = NeuralNetwork(N_i, hidden_nodes, output_nodes, learning_rate)
losses = {'train':[], 'validation':[]}
for ii in range(iterations):
# Go through a random batch of 128 records from the training data set
batch = np.random.choice(train_features.index, size=128)
X, y = train_features.ix[batch].values, train_targets.ix[batch]['cnt']
network.train(X, y)
# Printing out the training progress
train_loss = MSE(network.run(train_features).T, train_targets['cnt'].values)
val_loss = MSE(network.run(val_features).T, val_targets['cnt'].values)
sys.stdout.write("\rProgress: {:2.1f}".format(100 * ii/float(iterations)) \
+ "% ... Training loss: " + str(train_loss)[:5] \
+ " ... Validation loss: " + str(val_loss)[:5])
sys.stdout.flush()
losses['train'].append(train_loss)
losses['validation'].append(val_loss)
plt.plot(losses['train'], label='Training loss')
plt.plot(losses['validation'], label='Validation loss')
plt.legend()
_ = plt.ylim()
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8,4))
mean, std = scaled_features['cnt']
predictions = network.run(test_features).T*std + mean
ax.plot(predictions[0], label='Prediction')
ax.plot((test_targets['cnt']*std + mean).values, label='Data')
ax.set_xlim(right=len(predictions))
ax.legend()
dates = pd.to_datetime(rides.ix[test_data.index]['dteday'])
dates = dates.apply(lambda d: d.strftime('%b %d'))
ax.set_xticks(np.arange(len(dates))[12::24])
_ = ax.set_xticklabels(dates[12::24], rotation=45)
