一直想寫(xiě)一些對(duì)別人有幫助的文章，可不知道從何處著手。剛在坐享的時(shí)候沪羔，突然想到（又分神了），我是不是可以試著翻譯一些英文文章呢？說(shuō)干就干蔫饰，先從最近看到的一篇Ray Dalio（Bridgewater基金管理公司主席）2017年8月10日在Linkedin上發(fā)布的文章開(kāi)始琅豆。因?yàn)槲业臅?huì)計(jì)和金融知識(shí)是在加拿大學(xué)的英文版，有時(shí)候翻譯成中文沒(méi)那么準(zhǔn)確篓吁，有什么不恰當(dāng)?shù)牡胤矫Ｒ颍?qǐng)大家指正。

Risks Are Rising While Low Risks Are Discounted

當(dāng)?shù)惋L(fēng)險(xiǎn)還被低估時(shí)杖剪，真正的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在上升

There are returns, and there are risks. We think of them individually, and then we combine them into a portfolio. We think of returns and opportunities as coming from those things we’d bet on, and we think of risks as the adverse market consequences of us being wrong due to our being out of balance. We start with our balanced beta portfolio—i.e., that portfolio that would most certainly fund our intended uses of the money. Everyone should have their own based on their own projected uses of money, though more generally, it’s our All Weather portfolio. We then create a balanced portfolio of opportunity/alpha bets based on what we think is likely to happen. We then combine them.

世界上有回報(bào)冻押，也有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我們單獨(dú)考慮它們盛嘿，再合并入一個(gè)投資組合中洛巢。我們認(rèn)為投資給我們帶來(lái)回報(bào)和機(jī)遇，而風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是由于我們投資組合失衡而導(dǎo)致的錯(cuò)誤且有害的市場(chǎng)后果（注：這句話很難翻譯次兆，誰(shuí)有好的建議狼渊，請(qǐng)賜教）。我們先來(lái)創(chuàng)建一個(gè)系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)平衡型的投資組合（注：Beta是一種評(píng)估系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)）类垦，比如，把錢(qián)用到打算要用的地方城须。盡管這看起來(lái)更像是一種適合于所有人的投資組合蚤认，每個(gè)人還是應(yīng)該根據(jù)自己的預(yù)期來(lái)創(chuàng)建一個(gè)屬于自己的投資組合。接著糕伐，基于可能發(fā)生事情的判斷砰琢，我們?cè)賱?chuàng)建一個(gè)把機(jī)遇和回報(bào)有效結(jié)合的投資組合（注：Alpha是衡量相對(duì)于指數(shù)的投資回報(bào)）。最后我們把兩種投資組合合并起來(lái)（注：一種考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)良瞧，另一種考慮回報(bào)）陪汽。

We bet on the events/outcomes that we think we have an edge in understanding. For events/outcomes where we don’t think we have a particular edge—e.g., political events—we aim to construct our portfolio to be relatively neutral or balanced to those risks.

我們對(duì)于我們理解的事情和結(jié)果下注。而對(duì)于我們不熟悉的事情和結(jié)果褥蚯，比如政治事件挚冤，我們力求創(chuàng)建一個(gè)中性或者能平衡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的投資組合。

Risk and Volatility 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和波動(dòng)

As a rule, periods of lower risk/volatility tend to lead to periods of greater risk/volatility. That is reflected in our aggregate market volatility gauge (see below), and markets are pricing in volatility to remain low next year too.

一般來(lái)說(shuō)赞庶，越低的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和低波期容易引發(fā)越大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和波動(dòng)期训挡。這可以從在下面的市場(chǎng)總波動(dòng)圖中反映出來(lái)，市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)率明年還會(huì)保持低位歧强。

As a related rule, people adapt to the circumstances they have experienced and are then surprised when the future is different than the past. In other words, most people are inclined to assume that the circumstances they have recently encountered will persist, which leads them to change what they are doing to be consistent with that recently experienced environment. For example, low-volatility periods in which credit is readily available tend to lead people to assume that it’s safe to borrow more, which leads them to lever up their positions, which contributes to greater volatility and hurts them when things change.

作為一個(gè)相關(guān)準(zhǔn)則澜薄，人們?nèi)菀走m應(yīng)經(jīng)歷過(guò)的情況，而當(dāng)未來(lái)和過(guò)往不同時(shí)摊册，總是大吃一驚肤京。換而言之，大多數(shù)人傾向于假設(shè)他們最近遇到的情況會(huì)一直保持下去茅特，這會(huì)導(dǎo)致他們改變正在做的事情忘分，為了和他們經(jīng)歷過(guò)的情況保持一致棋枕。比如，低波動(dòng)時(shí)期饭庞，信用比較寬松戒悠，這使人們認(rèn)為借更多的錢(qián)是很安全的，所以他們就借錢(qián)投資舟山，最后導(dǎo)致更大的波動(dòng)而傷害到他們绸狐。

That appears to be the case now—i.e., prospective risks are now rising and do not appear appropriately priced in because of a) a backward looking at risk and b) corporate leveraging up has been high because interest rates are low relative to many companies’ projected ROEs and because past risks have been low. The emerging risks appear more political than economic, which makes them especially challenging to price in. Most immediately, during the calm of the August vacation season, we are seeing 1) two confrontational, nationalistic, and militaristic leaders playing chicken with each other, while the world is watching to see which one will be caught bluffing, or if there will be a hellacious war, and 2) the odds of Congress failing to raise the debt ceiling (leading to a technical default, a temporary government shutdown, and increased loss of faith in the effectiveness of our political system) rising. It’s hard to bet on such things, one way or another, so the best that one can do is be neutral to such possibilities.

目前的情況就是這樣，比如累盗，可預(yù)見(jiàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在上升寒矿，但貌似沒(méi)人正確的考慮它們，原因是若债，一符相，根據(jù)以前的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)判斷現(xiàn)在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，二蠢琳，因?yàn)槔氏鄬?duì)于企業(yè)預(yù)期的資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率更低和過(guò)往的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)很低啊终，企業(yè)借了很多的錢(qián)。正在出現(xiàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更多的是政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傲须，而不是經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)蓝牲，這就使得要把風(fēng)險(xiǎn)考慮進(jìn)來(lái)的難度就比較大。就在最近泰讽，在安靜的8月休假季（注：在北美例衍，很多人會(huì)在夏天休帶薪假），我們看到已卸，一佛玄，兩個(gè)挑釁的、民族主義的累澡，好斗的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人（注：美國(guó)和朝鮮）互相試膽梦抢，而全世界就看著誰(shuí)只是嚇嚇對(duì)方，或者是否真能引起一場(chǎng)大戰(zhàn)愧哟；二惑申，國(guó)會(huì)無(wú)法提高債務(wù)上限的可能性正在上升（如果真這樣，會(huì)導(dǎo)致債務(wù)違約翅雏，政府部門(mén)暫時(shí)關(guān)門(mén)圈驼，和進(jìn)一步喪失對(duì)我們政治系統(tǒng)有效性的信心）。對(duì)于這種事情望几，我們很難判斷绩脆，所以最好的方法就是，對(duì)于各種可能性保持中立。

When it comes to assessing political matters (especially global geopolitics like the North Korea matter), we are very humble. We know that we don’t have a unique insight that we’d choose to bet on. Most importantly, we aim to stay liquid, stay diversified, and not be overly exposed to any particular economic outcomes. We like to hedge our bets, though we are never completely hedged. We can also say that if the above things go badly, it would seem that gold (more than other safe haven assets like the dollar, yen, and treasuries) would benefit, so if you don’t have 5-10% of your assets in gold as a hedge, we’d suggest that you relook at this. Don’t let traditional biases, rather than an excellent analysis, stand in the way of you doing this (and if you do have an excellent analysis of why you shouldn’t have such an allocation to gold, we’d appreciate you sharing it with us).

當(dāng)評(píng)估政治事件時(shí)（特別是類似于朝鮮事件的全球地緣政治）靴迫，我們非常謙虛惕味。我們知道自己沒(méi)有獨(dú)特的洞察力讓我們可以選擇下注。更重要的是玉锌，我們還要保持資產(chǎn)的可變現(xiàn)能力名挥，資產(chǎn)的多樣化，和不要讓任何特殊的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)果影響資產(chǎn)主守。盡管不能完全規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)禀倔，但我們還是喜歡這么做。所以我們說(shuō)参淫，如果上面提到的事情真的往不好的方向發(fā)展救湖，投資黃金（作為一種比美金，日元和國(guó)債更安全的資產(chǎn)）可能收益更高涎才。如果你的資產(chǎn)里面還沒(méi)有5-10%的鞋既、作為避險(xiǎn)工具的黃金，我們建議你需要重新考慮了耍铜。除非你有很好的分析邑闺，那就不要讓傳統(tǒng)的偏見(jiàn)妨礙你這么做（如果你有關(guān)于不買黃金很好的分析，請(qǐng)與我們分享）棕兼。

結(jié)語(yǔ)：翻譯完陡舅，才發(fā)現(xiàn)之前讀過(guò)一遍的理解是不準(zhǔn)確的，雖然繼續(xù)讀程储，可能會(huì)有更多的理解。逐字逐句翻譯倒逼我把文章的每一個(gè)細(xì)節(jié)都要準(zhǔn)確理解臂寝，還要結(jié)合上下文章鲤，把意思很好的表達(dá)出來(lái)。以后我會(huì)經(jīng)常翻譯一些投資理財(cái)類的文章咆贬，幫助自己學(xué)習(xí)的同時(shí)败徊，希望對(duì)其他人也有幫助。