Chaos, Ignorance and Newton’s Great Puzzle

混沌，無(wú)知以及牛頓的未解之謎

原文：Scott H.Young

譯者：院校長(zhǎng)在學(xué)習(xí)

Chaos theory?is an investigation into mathematical and physical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. The simulated three-pendulum systems above only differ in the tiniest way from each other, yet, after a few seconds, they are all wildly divergent in their movements.

混沌理論是對(duì)初始條件極度敏感的數(shù)學(xué)和物理系統(tǒng)的研究叛赚。以上圖這個(gè)2段式的擺動(dòng)模擬為例（原文是3段式澡绩，我找的是2段式動(dòng)圖），他們開(kāi)始時(shí)僅有極小的差異俺附，但幾秒之后肥卡，他們的運(yùn)動(dòng)軌跡卻大相徑庭。

I’ve grown to prefer the word “chaos” to the more commonly used term “l(fā)uck”. People talk about luck a lot. We argue about whether someone’s success was an inevitable consequence of their skill and decisions, or whether they were just lucky. But we also talk about luck in superstitious terms, as if it was something someone possessed (“He’s just lucky.”) or that could ebb and flow with the tides of fortunes (“He’s just had a streak of bad luck.”).

我越來(lái)越喜歡用“混沌”來(lái)形容“運(yùn)氣”昙读。雖然人們談?wù)摗斑\(yùn)氣”這個(gè)詞要更多一些召调。我們也會(huì)去爭(zhēng)論某些人的成功膨桥，是因?yàn)榧寄芎蜎Q策的必然結(jié)果蛮浑，還是說(shuō)那僅僅只是運(yùn)氣唠叛。但我們對(duì)運(yùn)氣這東西也比較迷信，好像有些人天生就擁有它一樣（"他只是運(yùn)氣好而已"）也可能因?yàn)闀r(shí)運(yùn)不濟(jì)的時(shí)候說(shuō)（“他只是有點(diǎn)倒霉吧”）

Chaos, on the other hand, is a more mathematically precise concept. A system is more chaotic if small changes to its state can create wildly different outcomes. Compare the above system to the solar system. The fact that the sun rises each morning from the horizon may seem a banal fact, but it depends on the lack of chaos in our solar system. Adding a second sun creates a three-body system which, to this day, physicists do not have a way of precisely predicting the orbits.

在另一個(gè)方面沮稚，混沌艺沼，是一個(gè)精確的數(shù)學(xué)概念。如果一個(gè)細(xì)微行為導(dǎo)致了巨大差異蕴掏，那么這個(gè)系統(tǒng)會(huì)更混亂障般。我們拿這個(gè)系統(tǒng)和太陽(yáng)系來(lái)做對(duì)比。太陽(yáng)從地平線上升起盛杰，這似乎是一個(gè)再尋常不過(guò)的事實(shí)挽荡，但這在太陽(yáng)系里是一個(gè)混沌現(xiàn)象。直到今天即供，對(duì)于添加了另外恒星的三體系統(tǒng)來(lái)說(shuō)定拟，物理學(xué)家們都沒(méi)有能精準(zhǔn)預(yù)測(cè)軌道的方案。（譯者注：三體問(wèn)題是天體力學(xué)中的基本模型逗嫡，即探究三個(gè)質(zhì)量青自、初始位置和初始速度都為任意的可視為質(zhì)點(diǎn)的天體，在相互之間萬(wàn)有引力的作用下的運(yùn)動(dòng)規(guī)律驱证。它們有無(wú)數(shù)種可能的運(yùn)動(dòng)軌跡延窜。最簡(jiǎn)單的例子就是太陽(yáng)系中太陽(yáng)，地球和月球的運(yùn)動(dòng)抹锄。）

Why Chaos Matters

為什么混沌如此重要

Just as you can consider the amount of chaos in physical system, you can also think of the amount of chaos in different pursuits in life. The more chaotic the pursuit, the more likely small changes can result in completely different outcomes years later.

就像你考慮物理系統(tǒng)中的混亂數(shù)量一樣逆瑞，你也可以去思考生活中，不同追求里所存在的混沌伙单。越是混沌呆万，那些微小的變化也越容易在幾年后產(chǎn)生巨大的不同。

Although an absolute measurement of chaos is probably impossible, you can compare different pursuits by how chaotic they might be.

盡管我們不可能做到絕對(duì)精確的測(cè)量混沌本身车份，但你卻可以通過(guò)比較混沌的不同來(lái)對(duì)比不同追求的結(jié)果谋减。

Consider two professions: becoming an actor and becoming a doctor. Both are prestigious professions. Both require a lot of hard work without much reward in the beginning, but have the potential for big payoffs.

比如來(lái)分析這兩種職業(yè)：成為一名演員，和成為一位醫(yī)生扫沼。這兩者都是很有聲望的職業(yè)出爹。兩者從初期都屬于投入巨大的努力卻換來(lái)較小回報(bào)的類型，但他們都有著巨大的回報(bào)潛力缎除。

However, acting is a much more chaotic profession than medicine. Landing the right audition can give you a name, which puts you up for bigger and bigger parts. But just as you rise, you can also fall. A bad movie or changing public tastes have also made many famous stars disappear in an equally short time.

然而严就，演戲要比治病復(fù)雜得多（混沌），通過(guò)了試鏡的你可能會(huì)紅器罐，可能會(huì)讓你的名氣越來(lái)越大梢为，但同樣，你也可能因此隕落。比如拍了一部爛片铸董，嘗試了一些失敗的角色定位祟印，都會(huì)讓你很容易談出大家的視野。

Medicine is not chaotic. Although there will be marginal doctors who just get over the cutoff point for getting into medical school or landing a top residency, most are firmly within whatever category they eventually end up.

醫(yī)學(xué)行業(yè)就沒(méi)那么復(fù)雜了粟害，雖然有些醫(yī)生只是剛剛過(guò)了行業(yè)水準(zhǔn)的及格線蕴忆，但絕大多數(shù)醫(yī)生都會(huì)在其中任何一個(gè)類別里堅(jiān)持到最后。

If you considered only a cruder metric, such as success rates, however, you might totally miss this picture. Most would-be actors and doctors fail to eventually reach success in their profession. But they may fail for different reasons. Would-be doctors fail because the profession is difficult and long, and so creates a high-dropout rate, not because it is inherently chaotic. Would-be actors may fail or succeed because small events create feedback loops causing wildly different fortunes.

如果你認(rèn)為悲幅，只存在一種簡(jiǎn)單的度量方式套鹅，比如“成功率”，那么你可能會(huì)錯(cuò)過(guò)這張圖片汰具。大多數(shù)想從事演藝和醫(yī)學(xué)行業(yè)的人卓鹿，最終都沒(méi)能取得成功。他們會(huì)出于不同的原因而失敗留荔。醫(yī)生可能會(huì)因?yàn)槁殬I(yè)道路艱難漫長(zhǎng)减牺，所以輟學(xué)率高。而并不是因?yàn)檫@其中會(huì)有太大變數(shù)（混亂）存谎。演員的失敗或成功拔疚，更多會(huì)因?yàn)樾〉囊蛩貛?dòng)了巨大的變化和反饋，造成了不同的命運(yùn)既荚。

The Problem with Mercury

關(guān)于水星的問(wèn)題

For two hundred years since Newton, physicists had a problem: Mercury. The closest planet to the sun hada strange orbit that precessed. According to Newtonian physics, this wasn’t possible. The object would always have a fixed orbit around the sun, not one that wobbled around.

自牛頓后的200年來(lái)稚失，物理學(xué)家們一直有一個(gè)問(wèn)題：水星。那顆離太陽(yáng)最近的行星用非常奇怪的方式在軌道上運(yùn)動(dòng)恰聘。根據(jù)牛頓的物理學(xué)說(shuō)來(lái)看句各，這是不可能的。物體是以固定的軌道圍繞太陽(yáng)運(yùn)動(dòng)晴叨。而不是不穩(wěn)定的運(yùn)動(dòng)凿宾。

Physicists struggled against the problem of Mercury for years. Some suggested there must be a phantom planet, Vulcan, even closer to the sun, which was kicking Mercury’s orbit around.

物理學(xué)家們針對(duì)“水星問(wèn)題”斗爭(zhēng)了很多年，有些人認(rèn)為那里還存在一個(gè)看不見(jiàn)的星球---“Vulcan”兼蕊，每當(dāng)接近太陽(yáng)的時(shí)候它都會(huì)對(duì)水星產(chǎn)生影響初厚。

Eventually, however, the true answer emerged: Newtonian physics is wrong. Albert Einstein introduced general relativity and its warped spacetime curvature. The new equations correctly predicted the precession and Mercury’s orbit was finally understood.

然而，真正的答案是：牛頓說(shuō)錯(cuò)了孙技。愛(ài)因斯坦在廣義相對(duì)論中提出了時(shí)空扭曲概念产禾。它正確的預(yù)測(cè)出了水星的運(yùn)動(dòng)，從而幫助人們理解了水星的運(yùn)動(dòng)規(guī)律牵啦。

In Mercury’s case, physicists could safely rule out chaos because its precession was so orderly. However, in life, we often don’t get to observe the exact same conditions again and again to see the patterns. We only live once, so everything we experience is, in a certain sense, experienced for the first time.

針對(duì)水星問(wèn)題亚情，物理學(xué)家們可以準(zhǔn)確的排除混亂，因?yàn)樗麄冋业搅艘?guī)律哈雏。而在生活中楞件，我們沒(méi)辦法以相同的條件去一遍一遍的觀察來(lái)找到規(guī)律衫生。人，只能活一輩子土浸。所以在某種意義上來(lái)講罪针，我們經(jīng)歷過(guò)的每一件事，都是我們的第一次體驗(yàn)栅迄。

As a result, the randomness we perceive in life always has a mixture of two possible components. The first is chaos. This is the amount that the system would be unpredictable, even if we had a near perfect understanding. The second is based on our own ignorance of the system, the amount it defies our expectations because we don’t really understand how it works.

所以，我們?cè)谏钪杏龅降碾S機(jī)一般分為兩種情況：

1.混沌：這是系統(tǒng)中不可知的量皆怕。（即使我們對(duì)生活背后的規(guī)律毅舆，有一些接近完美的理解）

2.對(duì)系統(tǒng)的無(wú)知：它的結(jié)果超出我們的預(yù)期，因我們我們并不真正理解繁雜生活背后的運(yùn)作規(guī)律愈腾。

How to Use Chaos in Your Thinking

如何在你的思考過(guò)程中運(yùn)用“混沌”憋活？

In practice, it’s not possible to cleanly separate which systems are chaotic and which are merely poorly understood. However, it’s still useful to understand the existence of these two different sources of randomness.

在實(shí)踐中，我們不可能完全區(qū)分哪些是混沌的虱黄，哪些是我們自己無(wú)知造成的悦即。但是！橱乱！了解這兩類隨機(jī)性對(duì)我們還是很有用的辜梳。

When approaching any problem in life where outcomes are highly divergent, there’s always two possible mistakes that can be made.

生活中任何問(wèn)題的結(jié)果都是高度發(fā)散的，這里面我們會(huì)經(jīng)常觸犯兩個(gè)誤區(qū)泳叠。

The first is to overestimate the possibility of knowledge. By assuming that the system can be understood, but it is actually dominated by chaos, you may be gambling more than you realize. People who make this mistake may be convinced they’ve found the secret of success, but they’re really fooling themselves.

第一個(gè)便是高估了知識(shí)的可能性作瞄。我們可以用一個(gè)假設(shè)來(lái)理解生活，但事實(shí)上它是由混沌來(lái)主導(dǎo)的危纫。你的投機(jī)可能大過(guò)于你本身的認(rèn)知宗挥，通常犯了這種錯(cuò)誤的人會(huì)覺(jué)得他們找到了成功的方法，但這可能只是一廂情愿种蝶。

The second error is to overestimate the role of chaos. By assuming that the system is inherently unpredictable, you may forego the possibility of mastery.

第二個(gè)誤區(qū)是高估了混沌的作用契耿。假設(shè)這個(gè)體系本質(zhì)上是不可預(yù)測(cè)的，你可能會(huì)因此放棄掌握它的可能性螃征。

In my own life, I’ve seen this error with people new to blogging. Many people believe the field is inherently chaotic, depending on “going viral” and getting a lucky bit of publicity. The truth, however, is far more mundane. Most new bloggers I’ve met have obviously different levels of quality, consistency and work-ethic, which leads predictably to different outcomes, given enough time. Blogging success may be both rare and difficult, but I believe it’s less chaotic than many pundits would suggest.

在我的生活里搪桂，我就看到很多很多的新博主身上出現(xiàn)這種問(wèn)題。很多人都相信在自媒體這個(gè)領(lǐng)域里就是混亂的盯滚。他們更多依靠“病毒性營(yíng)銷”和一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)帶運(yùn)氣的推廣锅棕。但其實(shí)，真相更為世俗淌山。我遇到的大部分博主中裸燎，都非常明顯的存在不同程度的能力，一致性以及職業(yè)道德泼疑。只要有足夠的時(shí)間德绿，就會(huì)導(dǎo)致出不同的結(jié)果來(lái)。一個(gè)博客的成功，可能確實(shí)非常的罕見(jiàn)和不易移稳。但我相信它的混沌程度要低于那些專家所說(shuō)的程度蕴纳。

Calibrating Between Assumptions of Chaos and Ignorance

在混沌與無(wú)知的假設(shè)間進(jìn)行調(diào)整和修正

One of my goals is to try to calibrate my expectations of chaos versus ignorance in different domains. Is my failure to predict because of inherent unpredictability or a lack of understanding?

我的目標(biāo)之一就是修正我在不同領(lǐng)域上，對(duì)混沌和無(wú)知的預(yù)期个粱。

This is difficult to do, but I’ve found there’s a few heuristics that can make the process easier:

盡管這做起來(lái)很難古毛，但我還是發(fā)現(xiàn)了一些啟發(fā)性的關(guān)鍵流程，讓事情更簡(jiǎn)單：

1.Theoretical justifications.I bias towards believing success in picking individual stocks is mostly chaos. I say this, not out of any first-hand experience, but because the efficient market hypothesis strikes me as being a reasonable theory. As such, I’m not interested in learning the skill of picking stocks, and have opted to invest in index funds instead.

1.理論依據(jù)

我傾向于相信---那些在個(gè)股股票中的成功都许，通常也是混亂（混沌）的結(jié)果稻薇。我這么說(shuō)，并不是因?yàn)槲易约航?jīng)歷過(guò)胶征。而是因?yàn)椤坝行袌?chǎng)”的假說(shuō)一直在警醒我塞椎。 （譯者注：有效市場(chǎng)假說(shuō)認(rèn)為，在一個(gè)充滿信息交流和信息競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的社會(huì)里睛低，一個(gè)特定的信息能夠在股票市場(chǎng)上迅速被投資者知曉案狠。隨后，股票市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)會(huì)驅(qū)使股票價(jià)格充分且及時(shí)地反映該組信息钱雷，從而使得該組信息所進(jìn)行的交易不存在非正常報(bào)酬骂铁，而只能賺取風(fēng)險(xiǎn)調(diào)整的平均市場(chǎng)報(bào)酬率）因此，我對(duì)學(xué)習(xí)如何選股的技巧并不感興趣罩抗，而是選擇去投資指數(shù)型基金从铲。

2.Existence of expertise.Look at the predictions of the best people. How often are they correct? If even the best don’t predict well, that doesn’t bode well for me. However, if successful predictions are common, it might demonstrate that there’s an understanding that exists which I don’t possess.

2."專家建議"的存在

去看看那些最厲害的人，他們的預(yù)測(cè)是否會(huì)經(jīng)常正確呢?如果連那些頂尖的人預(yù)測(cè)起來(lái)也不是那么準(zhǔn)確的話澄暮，對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō)可能并不是好消息名段。但相反，如果成功的預(yù)測(cè)是很常見(jiàn)的泣懊，那倒是說(shuō)明伸辟，有一種我還不具備的理解存在。

3.Diminishing randomness.Another heuristic is to see how your experience of randomness is decreasing over time. If I’ve gone from 0/10 to 2/10 on a level of mastery from newbie to expert, and my ease at predicting success has gone up substantially, I’m more inclined to believe this trend will continue.

3.正在減少的隨機(jī)性

另一種探索型的方法是讓你了解：感受隨時(shí)間遞減的隨機(jī)性馍刮。如果從新手到專家的過(guò)程中信夫，我的熟練度已經(jīng)從0 / 10升到了2 / 10，而我對(duì)成功預(yù)測(cè)的把握也越來(lái)越高卡啰。我會(huì)更傾向于相信這種趨勢(shì)還會(huì)持續(xù)下去静稻。

Randomness, whether from ignorance or chaos, is not ultimately avoidable. But by better calibrating your understanding between the two, you can see where investments in learning more are worthwhile and where it is probably a waste of time.

隨機(jī)性，無(wú)論是從無(wú)知還是混亂來(lái)說(shuō)匈辱，最終都是難以避免的振湾。 但是，通過(guò)更好地修正對(duì)兩者之間的理解亡脸，你就能知道押搪，在學(xué)習(xí)的過(guò)程中树酪，投資到哪些地方會(huì)更值得，而哪些地方則可能是在浪費(fèi)時(shí)間大州。