The General Stock Market in 1959:
The Dow-Jones Industrial Average, undoubtedly the most widely used index of stock market behavior, presented a somewhat faulty picture in 1959. This index recorded an advance from 583 to 679, or 16.47 for the year. When the dividends which would have been received through ownership of the average are added, an overall gain of 19.97% is indicated for 1959.
道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)，這個(gè)被最廣泛用于代表市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)的指數(shù)颅围，在1959年沒(méi)有很好的表現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)狀況纱意。該指數(shù)該年從583上漲到679背蟆，有16.47%的漲幅蜀肘。當(dāng)把當(dāng)年的股利影響加權(quán)之后，1959年的總體漲幅應(yīng)該在19.97%笙纤。
Despite this indication of a robust market, more stocks declined than advanced on the New York Stock Exchange during the year by a margin of 710 to 628. Both the Dow-Jones Railroad Average and Utility Average registered declines.
盡管指數(shù)顯得市場(chǎng)強(qiáng)勁啄骇，紐約證交所里的股票跌得卻比漲得多，比數(shù)是710:680. 道瓊斯鐵路平均指數(shù)和道瓊斯公共事業(yè)平均指數(shù)雙雙下跌昆著。
Most investment trusts had a difficult time in comparison with the Industrial Average. Tri-Continental Corp., the nation's largest closed-end investment company (total assets $400 million) has an overall gain of about 5.7% for the year. Fred Brown, its President, had this to say about the 1959 market in a recent speech to the Analysts Society:
眾多投資機(jī)構(gòu)今年業(yè)績(jī)都遜于工業(yè)平均指數(shù)县貌。Tri-Continental 公司，全國(guó)最大的封閉式投資公司（總資產(chǎn)達(dá)4億美金）年投資回報(bào)率為5.7%凑懂。公司主席Fred Brown在最近一次分析師大會(huì)上如此評(píng)價(jià)1959年的市場(chǎng)：
“But, even though we like the portfolio, the market performance of Tri-Continental's holdings in 1959 was disappointing to us. Markets in which investor sentiment and enthusiasm play so large a part as those of 1959, are difficult for investment managers trained in values and tuned to investing for the long-term. ?Perhaps we haven't had our space boots adjusted properly. However, we believe that there is limit to risks that an investing institution such as Tri-Continental should take with its stockholders's money, and we believe that the portfolio is in shape for the year ahead.”
“盡管我們對(duì)投資組合很滿意煤痕，Tri-Continental在1959年的表現(xiàn)卻讓人失望。1959年的市場(chǎng)對(duì)于專注于長(zhǎng)期投資和價(jià)值投資理念的投資經(jīng)理很難接谨，因?yàn)橥顿Y者的情緒和熱情主導(dǎo)了市場(chǎng)摆碉。也許我們的太空鞋還沒(méi)調(diào)整好（沒(méi)準(zhǔn)備一飛沖天？）脓豪。但是我們相信像Tri-Continental這樣的投資機(jī)構(gòu)不能用投資者的錢來(lái)承擔(dān)過(guò)多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)巷帝，同時(shí)我們相信我們的投資組合是很適合明年的市場(chǎng)”
Massachusetts Investors Trust, the country's largest mutual fund with assets of $1.5 billion showed an overall gain of about 9% for the year.
Massachusetts投資信托，有15億美元的全國(guó)最大共同基金扫夜，當(dāng)年有9%的收益楞泼。
Most of you know I have been very apprehensive about the general stock market levels for several years. To date, this caution has been unnecessary. By previous standards, the press level of "blue chip" security prices contains a substantial speculative component with a corresponding risk of loss. Perhaps other standards of valuation are evolving which will permanently replace the old standards. I don't think so. I may very well be wrong; however, I would rather sustain the penalties resulting from over-conservatism than face the consequences of error, perhaps with permanent capital loss, resulting from the adoption of a "New Era" philosophy where tree really do grow to the sky.
眾所周知我已經(jīng)對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)擔(dān)憂好幾年了。不過(guò)到現(xiàn)在為止笤闯，好像這種謹(jǐn)慎好像都是多余的堕阔。按照先前的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，媒體所標(biāo)榜的“藍(lán)籌”股價(jià)格已經(jīng)包含大量的投機(jī)因素從而導(dǎo)致價(jià)格大幅下跌的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)颗味。也許其他的估值方法正在逐漸形成并會(huì)最終取代過(guò)去的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)超陆。但我并不這么想。我也許是錯(cuò)的脱衙，但是我寧愿因?yàn)檫^(guò)于謹(jǐn)慎而交罰款侥猬，而不希望由于錯(cuò)誤地接受“新時(shí)代”的哲學(xué)去相信樹(shù)真的能漲到天上去，而導(dǎo)致永久性的資金損失捐韩。
Results in 1959:
1959年投資結(jié)果：
There has been emphasis in previous letters on a suggested standard of performance involving relatively good results (compared to the general market indices and leading investment trusts) in periods of declining or level prices but relatively unimpressive results in rapidly rising markets.
在之前的股東信中已經(jīng)提到過(guò)我們的投資表現(xiàn)相比于一般市場(chǎng)指數(shù)和頭部的投資信托機(jī)構(gòu)退唠，在市場(chǎng)下跌和盤(pán)整的期間要更好，但是在快速上漲的市場(chǎng)中就沒(méi)有那么亮眼了荤胁。
We are fortunate to achieve reasonably good results in 1959. The six partnerships that operated throughout the year achieved overall net gains ranging from 22.3% to 30.0%, and averaging about 25.9%. Portfolios of these partnerships are now about 80% comparable, but there is some difference due to securities and cash becoming available at varying times, payment made to partners etc. Over the past few years, there hasn't been any partnership which has consistently been at the top or bottom of performance from year to year, and variance is narrowing as the portfolios trend to become comparable.
我們?cè)?959年有幸獲得了不錯(cuò)的回報(bào)瞧预，六個(gè)合伙公司通過(guò)一年的運(yùn)作總體凈收益從22.3% 到 30% 不等，平均達(dá)25.9%。這些合伙公司的投資組合現(xiàn)在有80%的相似垢油，其中差別的原因主要是由于現(xiàn)金或者股票交易時(shí)間以及付給合伙人的資金的不同等等盆驹。在過(guò)去幾年中，沒(méi)有任何一個(gè)合伙公司的表現(xiàn)持續(xù)最好或者一直最糟糕滩愁，之間的差別越來(lái)越小躯喇，這主要是因?yàn)榻M合趨同。
The overall net gain is determined on the basis ?of market values at the beginning and end of the year adjusted for payments made to partners or contributions received from them. It is not based on actual realized profits during the year, but is intended to measure the change in liquidating value for the year. It is before interest allowed to partners (where that is specified in the partnership agreement) and before any division of profit to the general partner, but after operating expenses.
總體凈利潤(rùn)是根據(jù)年初和年末的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值并根據(jù)給合伙人的回報(bào)以及他們的投入進(jìn)行調(diào)整的硝枉。并不是基于一年中實(shí)際獲利而是通過(guò)這一年公司清算價(jià)值的改變來(lái)計(jì)算的廉丽。總體凈利潤(rùn)計(jì)入了付給合作伙伴的利息（按照合伙協(xié)議）以及給一般合伙人的分成妻味，但是扣除了運(yùn)營(yíng)費(fèi)用正压。
The principal operating expenses is the Nebraska Intangibles Tax which amounts to .47% of market value on practically all securities. Last year represented the first time that this tax had been effectively enforced and, of course, penalized our results to the extent of .47%.
運(yùn)營(yíng)費(fèi)用的計(jì)量準(zhǔn)則基于Nebraska無(wú)形資產(chǎn)稅，對(duì)幾乎所有的股票都按照股票市值征收0.47%责球。去年是該項(xiàng)稅收第一年執(zhí)行焦履，因此這也直接導(dǎo)致把我們投資收益拉低了0.47%。
The Present Portfolio:
當(dāng)前的投資組合：
Last year I mentioned a new commitment which involved about 25% of the assets of the various partnerships. Presently, this investment is about 35% of assets. This is an unusually large percentage, but has been make for strong reasons. In effect, this Company is partially an investment trust owning some thirty or forty other securities of high quality. Our investment was made and is carried at substantial discount from asset value based on market value of their securities and conservative appraisal of the operating business.
去年我提到一筆占到我們總資產(chǎn)25%的新投資雏逾。目前該項(xiàng)投資占比約35%嘉裤。這個(gè)是個(gè)不同尋常的高占比，但卻非常合理校套。實(shí)際上价脾，這家公司有一部分從事投資信托的業(yè)務(wù)擁有差不多30-40家優(yōu)質(zhì)公司的股票牧抵。根據(jù)它們所持股票的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值以及保守估計(jì)它們主要業(yè)務(wù)的實(shí)際價(jià)值之后笛匙，我們?cè)谄涫袌?chǎng)價(jià)格大打折扣的時(shí)大舉投資。
We are the Company's largest stockholder by a considerable margin, and the two other large holders agree with our idea. The probability is extremely high that the performance of this investment will be superior to that of the general market until it's disposition, and I am hopeful that this will take place this year.
我們是該公司最大的股東犀变，其他兩位大股東也贊成我們的想法妹孙。這筆投資的收益非常將可觀，同時(shí)該項(xiàng)投資的表現(xiàn)必將優(yōu)于市場(chǎng)直到公司合并获枝，而且我希望這在今年就發(fā)生蠢正。
The remaining 65% of the portfolio is in securities which I consider undervalued and work-out operations. To the extent possible, I continue to attempt to invest in situations at least partially insulated from the behavior of the general market.
剩余的65%的投資組合放在了我認(rèn)為低估的股票和套利操作。在可能的范圍內(nèi)省店，我繼續(xù)嘗試至少部分隔絕于市場(chǎng)行為的情形下投資嚣崭。
This policy should lead to superior results in bear markets, and average performance in bull markets. The first prediction may be subject to test this year since, at this writing, the Dow-Jones Industrials have retraced over half of their 1959 advance.
這項(xiàng)投資策略會(huì)在熊市帶來(lái)優(yōu)于市場(chǎng)的收益并且在牛市中和市場(chǎng)持平。第一段預(yù)言（熊市懦傍？）也許說(shuō)的就是今年雹舀，在寫(xiě)這封信的時(shí)候，道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)已經(jīng)回吐了1959年漲幅的一半粗俱。
Should you have any questions or if I have not been clear in any respect, I would be very happy to hear from you.
如果有任何問(wèn)題或者我有任何表述不清楚的地方说榆，希望能夠指出，期待你們的回信。
Warren E. Buffett
2-20-60
后記： 巴菲特合伙公司今年市值 = ?（去年）$2400萬(wàn)*(1+0.259)=$3021.6 萬(wàn)
